SPX Monthly Chart Secular Bear Market

The month end print is locked in for August. Keystone uses the 12 MA as a gauge to forecast secular bull markets versus secular bear markets. The broad markets are now in a Secular Bear Market. This means lower equities prices in the weeks and months ahead. Note the secular bull market that started in Spring 2003 as the bombing started for the Iraq War. Also the Fall 2007 market top and Spring 2009 bottom. Note how the secular calls flipped back and forth during summer 2010, the broad markets were about to collapse, then Chairman Bernanke stepped in with QE2 to save the day, and continue the secular bull into the 2011 top. With August's month end print, the broad markets have now fallen into a Secular Bear Market.

Four MA's are shown above.  The 10 MA cross serves as an early trend turn signal and is followed by many old-time traders. The 12 MA is Keystone's secular signal. The 17 and 20 month MA's also provide vital clues to gauge the broad markets and firmly lock in the secular trends. The 20 MA cross serves as a cast-in-stone indicator to confirm the secular trend. The month end print of 1219 is below the 10 and 12 MA's. Note, however, that the 1219 managed to stay above the 17 MA (now 1218) by one measly point and the 20 MA (now 1202) by 17 points.

Thus, as September plays out watch these 17 and 20 MA levles closely. Since the 17 MA held, albeit by one point, if it fails in September it is a big deal. If the 20 MA fails, it is a huge deal since the secular bear market will be confirmed strongly and the bear will be growling loudly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.