SPX Weekly Chart Upward Channel Back Test

This is a boomerang chart--every time you think it has resolved to the downside, it comes back up to try and resurrect itself. This is the third week that the lower rail of the upward sloping channels has failed. Note the blue channel and an alternate red channel. Last week a back kiss occurred to the lower rail of the blue channel and at that time price must decide whether to regain the channel, or to fail. Price failed. At that juncture, technically speaking, you expect a further break down.

However, now in the third week of losing the upward channels, price makes its way upwards once again, and finds itself testing the lower rail of the blue channel again at 1178. Note a back kiss of the red channel would require price to move up further to about 1200-1205, which is sturdy resistance.

Thus, watch price behavior in this 1178-1205 zone over the next couple days. A sustained move above 1178 (blue channel) is bullish and a move above 1205 (red channel) is very bullish indicating that the market bulls have regained control of the upward moving channel. Caution is warranted, however, since this move higher is currently viewed as unlikely. The indicators are all weak and bleak as shown by the red lines indicating lower prices for the weeks and months ahead. The positive divergence of the stochastics (green line) was instrumental in creating the market bounce the last couple days.

Although hopeful for bulls, the projection is that this price action is a simple back kiss in progress and price should reverse from 1178-1205 and head lower again. The 200 week MA, now at 1152, is important S/R from April 2010 and Fall 2010.  Price should move back down after the back kiss completes and failure of the 200 week MA would be a bear signal to kick in the further down side moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not ivest based onanything you read or view here or on any oinks associated with this site. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.