SPX Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross Secular Bear Market

Here's an update of the SPX monthly chart that tells you whether equities markets are in a long term bull pattern or a long term bear pattern. Looking at the last three years, you see the secular bear we were in thru the Fall 2008 crash, then equities bottomed in March 2009 as QE1 was announced. The broad market move up was confirmed in June 2009, the champagne corks were popped and the long term secular bull market began. The wine and roses continued until the summer of 2010 when the markets sputtered. To avoid cluttering the chart above with additional vertical lines, the flip from bull to bear to bull to bear to bull is shown with the red and green circles. the markets gave up the secular bull path in June 2010, but then recovered in July, and then headed for collapse in August 2010. This is when Chairman Bernanke shows up with the QE2 booze and the party music blasted once again. The markets never looked back from August 2010 and launched back into a secular bull run.

The punchbowl is empty now. Over the last couple weeks the SPX has dropped under the 12 month MA indicating that the markets have fallen back into a secular bear direction moving forward. If the SPX can move back above 1268-ish the bear move can be negated but at this time seems unlikely. Projection is for sideways to sideways down markets for the months ahead, or, at least until QE3 is announced. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Reference the Secular Turn page on this site for further information concerning secular market calls.