SPX Goes Negative for the Year; SPX S/R 8-3-11

SPX gave up the ghost today and went negative for the year.  A 7-month struggle to keep its head above water failed today.  The SPX is three points below the starting number for 2011, this year's gains are history. The SPX Benchmark Index now -0.2% for the year.

The SPX fell thru the 12 month MA causing serious technical damage to the markets.  On the positive side, the financials and semiconductor sectors are positioned to pop, and utilities and copper remain bull friendly.  The NYMO at a -90 is agreeable to a market pop here.  NYHL at -61 is agreeable to a market bounce occurring.

Despite the big move down today the volume was not as strong as the previous down day, and the NYAD did not out do the -2500 prints from a couple three days ago, in simple terms, this would be agreeable to a bounce. 

TRIN spiked to 3 on Monday and instead of that placing a near term market bottom, the selling today further elevated the TRIN, as would be expected, with a close at 4.47, quite lofty.  Typically, the markets reverse and allow the bulls to recover after a TRIN at this level.

For the SPX for the Wednesday session, if the futures have so much as a glimmer of red to them in the morning, the sellers are going to continue to drive things lower directly after the bell rings.  1252 and 1249 levels offer up support.  1252 is the pre-Lehman bankruptcy number; everyone remembers that fun three years ago. 1249 is key from March of this year and is the only remaining support in place for 2011.  All bulls can hope for is to stop the bleeding and any green numbers tomorrow will be considered a success.  The bulls need to retrace the entire down move to get any substantial rally going on Wednesday, and push the SPX back up over 1286, a formidable task that appears unlikely.  Therefore, bulls would be content with a sideways move thru 1255-1286 in the Wednesday session.

·        1318

·        1316

·        1314

·        1312

·        1307

·        1300

·        1298

·        1295

·        1292

·        1289

·        1287

HOD Tuesday 1286.56

·        1286

·        1282

·        1281 (gap fill needed)

·        1280

·        1272-1273 (LT S/R)

·        1270

·        1268

·        1262

·        1258-1259 (1257.64 is the starting number for 2011)

·        1257 (3/16/11)

Tuesday's LOD and Close 1254.05

·        1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)

·        1249 (LOD 3/16/11)

·        1247

·        1242

·        1235 (12/15/10; also HOD 12/7/10 large volume)

·        1233 (LOD 12/16/11)

·        1227 (HOD 11/9/11)

·        1226 (11/5/11)

·        1224 (12/7/10 large volume)

·        1220 (HOD 4/26/10)

·        1217 (4/23/10)

·        1209 (HOD 4/29/10)

·        1207 (4/29/10 Top)

·        1200

·        1197

·        1192 (9/15/08 post-LEH bk)

·        1172