NYA Loses 40 Week MA Secular Bear Market

The NYA continues its dance in and out of a secular bull versus secular bear market since June. In the closing minutes yesterday, NYA price fell thru the 40 week MA indicating that the markets have returned into a secular bear. NYA closed at 8153.21 with the 40 week MA at 8156.47. This is a shift into a secular bear but it is obvious that three points under is not a slam dunk for this major market trend change.  With a debt ceiling agreement, the NYA will catapult skyward and most probably negate this shift once again. These continued failures of the NYA 40 week MA, however, since June, will eventually have price give up the ghost and collapse down thru on a more sustainable basis.

Continue to check the Secular Turn page on this site for updates.  Note that of Keystone's four major secular turn signals, the NYA is the only one that has been flirting with a move into secular bear markets, at least for now.  The SPX would need to drop under the 1260 area to verify the secular bear so it remains 40 points or so above. The UPS 20 and 50 week MA cross continues to close in and bears watching considering UPS's numbers and guidance yesterday did not impress anyone.  The fourth signal, the SPX 150 day MA slope, remains in an upward trajectory.  Latest print for the 150 day MA is 1310.20, thus, keep watching, if the 150 day MA drops so much as a penny under this current 1310.20 level, that signals a secular bear market has begun.

Thus, four vital tools to make a secular call on the markets, one of the four (NYA) as of this writing showing that we are in a secular bear market, the other three continue along forecasting a secular bull market, but, this can change quickly over the coming days and weeks.