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Friday, June 24, 2011

Keystone's 2-10 Spread Indicator

Keystone's line in the sand between happy bankers and sad bankers is a 255 spread for the 2-10.  Above 255 and the financials are in clover, making easy money, and the financials help buoy the equity markets overall.

Below 255 and the yield curve is no longer advantageous for the banksters and financials will languish moving forward, casting a pall over the broad markets.

As of this writing, the ten year is 2.89%; the two year is 0.34%.  289-34=255 on the dot.

Use the spread as a forecasting tool for the broad markets.  If the spread stays above 255, the bulls keep their heads above water and try to maintain buoyancy in the broad markets.  If 255 fails, the financials are sick and the broad markets will steepen their negative bias moving forward.

Note Added 1 PM EST:  Ten year at 2.87%; two year at 0.33%; 287-33=254.  Bingo.  Keep watching to see if it recovers, or fails further.

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