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Wednesday, April 6, 2011

SOX Semiconductor Index Daily Chart Fibonacci Retracements Two Leg Bear Flag Gaps

The SOX is key to any economic recovery, after all, chips go into nearly everything nowadays. Lots going on technically. SOX took a four day stumble losing 4.5% as April began, but rebounded two days ago to now make up that entire selling event and now test the 50 MA at 445. The 447 gap would like to be filled as well. The two-leg bear flag shown with the blue lines would remain in play as long as 450 was not exceeded. If the bear flag pattern proceeds and the second leg down starts from 450, the target is 385. Above 450 and the bear flag pattern would be negated.

Interestingly, 449-450 is strong horizontal resistance and also the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the late February to mid March sell off. Thus, this 445-450 range is critical and will result in either a topping area, or price would break thru to the upside towards 465. The indicators are all weaker on this price move now except for RSI which is agreeable to a little more upside, so this should manifest as a testing of this critical 445-450 area.

If 445-450 resistance holds, the bears are in business with support at 441, 434, 427, 422, 413, 410, 400 and the bear flag target of 385; if price punches up thru 450, the bulls are in business with resistance at 455, 460, key R at 465, the gap fill at 470 and the 474 prior top. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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