Keystone's Nightcap 4-13-11

Today finished sideways with the indexes recovering in the afternoon after President Obama's speech and the Beige Book release.  Perhaps traders were relieved since the speech had no real substance and the Beige Book placed a happy face on the economic recovery.

The SPX has now closed under the 50 day MA for two days in a row; pennies under, but under none the less.  Volume for the NYA today was less than 80% of the average volume expected.  The theme of large volume down days versus vapor volume up days continues.  Before market bears get too excited, the utilities remain buoyant which will prohibit any true extended market downside from occurring.  In addition, the SPX:VIX ratio remains above 68 and SPXA150R is above the 85 level which prohibits the bears from accelerating any downside, for now. 

An interesting tidbit from Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs Investment Research today indicated that markets typically move down in front of tax day, as traders write the checks for Uncle Sam, then typically move back up in the remainder of April.

The JOLT (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) was released this morning.  This data always flies under the radar and only experienced traders tend to watch it.  As of the end of February, there were 3.1 million job openings, these are the number of positions waiting to be filled.  This reflects a 2.3% increase over the previous month although the hiring rate was about the same.  Job openings continue to track upwards since the end of the recession in June 2009 but to place this data in perspective, there were 4.4 million openings in December 2007.  Perhaps companies are publicizing openings but they have become very picky, looking for the rocket scientist-sky diver-orator-eagle scout candidates that simply do not exist.

Turning to tomorrow, economic data includes PPI, providing fresh meat for inflation discussions, jobless claims, natty inventories an hour after the open and a 30-year bond auction at 1 PM EST.  Fed speak kicks off as well with Kocherlakota in the morning, Plosser at lunch time and Lacker hawkish talk in the evening.

For the SPX, bulls will accelerate the upside if they can hit a 1322 handle and bears will increase the selling pressure if they can get under the 1309 level.