Dollar Yen Drama Continues

The coordinated move to weaken the yen started 3/18/11.  The green box shows the effects and dramatic bounce in the dollar/yen as a result of the intervention, and, the intervention continues.

Looking back to September 2010, the blue box shows previous Japan intervention, at a time that was not as coordinated as it is now with other central bankers.  The price bounced from 83 up to 86 which serves as a top for othe last 8 months.  This time frame also corresponds to when Chairman Bernanke announced QE2 and allows the money to flow like water around the globe.

Thus, the 83-86 range would be the projection moving forward.  Currently trying to hold the 83 level, intervention would occur to ensure the 83 holds, then the next leg up will be forced to eventually hold that 85-86 target zone.

Lots of cross currents now and currency fluctuations such as Trichet promising a rate hike in less than a week, potential China rate hikes, other emerging market rate hikes that are trying to chase Chairman Bernanke's hot money away, the Japanese yen intervention above, lots of plates are in the air.  Potential outcome moving forward may be euro down=dollar index up=dollar/yen up=commodities down=US equities down.