TYX 30-Year Yield Weekly Chart Ascending Triangle

TYX 30-year yield shows formidable resistance at 4.8%. Rumors of higher rates in the near term are greatly exaggerated. Interesting how a long term ascending triangle pattern is emerging with the 4.8% base. Thus, a move down to test the lower rail of the triangle at 3.8 to 4.0% would be in order. The triangle would come to an apex in about one years time or so, thus, at that time, the target would be 4.8 + 2.2 = 7.0%.

But, this 7.0% target would be two to four years out and does not agree with the quick run-up in yields expected by so many traders now. In other words, the deflation worry is not yet over. The chart says that the 30-year yield is headed sideways for the next year between 3.8 and 4.8%. Once 4.8% is pierced thru to the upside, however, this will put in play a 7% target since the ascending triangle is established now.

The ADX shows a couple of strong trends that occurred but interestingly, these strong trends did not occur when yields were moving up, but, rather when they were moving down, further requiring that a possible deflation scenario be shown respect a while longer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.