BTCUSD Bitcoin Monthly Chart; Former President Trump Proclaims, "Never Sell Your Bitcoin" at 70K

At the Bitcoin Conference, King Donnie, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, that is running against Cackling Kamala, the incompetent insecure amateur that is a progressive communist, for the POTUS gig, after Sleepy Joe, the frail confused Alzheimer patient with onset of dementia bowed-out, proclaims, "Never sell your bitcoin!"

Former President Trump may regret those words over time. The monthly chart above is ugly with rampant negative divergence (red lines). The MACD is trying to eek out another month or two of buoyancy but with price at new highs this year, the MACD cannot reach the prior high (bearish).

Here is the link to the prior bitcoin chart and analysis that explained the double-top, spankdown, then forecasted relief rally back up to 65K-66K, with price now at 68K pushing towards 70K.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee has been Mister Bullish on bitcoin predicting wildly higher numbers. The bitcoin bulls also have high expectations but that is mainly talking their own book. Maybe there is a fundamental reason they are citing but the long-term chart above is ugly. The monthly chart is setting up for a multi-month pullback probably targeting the 40's where tensions will be high to see if the dark blue trend line is lost.

Keystone is not in bitcoin or any cyber currency derivatives long or short. The bitcoin daily chart is setting up with neggie d so it should top out in the daily time frame any day forward (as long as there is no positive news; Trump's comments should provide a bitcoin bump).

The cybercurrency ETF's were a big deal and now they are getting handed out and passed around like a bowl of macadamia nuts. For the monthly chart to improve, it would need massively good news, but it appears that the great ETF news did not do much, so the better news would have to be far better than the ETF news. It does not sound realistic.

Bitcoin will be interesting to watch for the remainder of the year. King Donnie, King Cry Baby, may regret those words about 'never selling your bitcoin'. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/29/24, at 6:16 AM EST: Bitcoin is at 69.5K and was a stone's throw from 70K three hours ago, lifted by Trump's happy comments. 70,000 is a nice easy number to remember. King Donnie Trump proclaims on 7/28/24, with bitcoin at 70K, to, "Never sell your bitcoin!" It will be fun to see how Donnie's bold call fares over the coming months. Did Donnie actually, unknowingly, call the top?.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/30/24, at 4:19 AM EST: Bitcoin rises to 66989.18 a whisker from 70K and then falls on its sword yesterday to 67K. Donnie Trump, the business idiot, lost 3K in one day (from the 70K that he tells everyone to never sell). Bitcoin has a 66K handle this morning. It's going the wrong way, Donnie. This week is nutso, probably the most critical week of the year, with major tech and other earnings on tap, the Fed decision and set-up for future rate cuts, the BOJ decision, and the Jobs Report. Bitcoin is starting to receive the neggie d spankdown in the daily time frame as mentioned above so a few days of sogginess/falling prices is expected for the cyber currency this week.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/30/24, at 6:56 AM EST: Bitcoin is 66.6K. There sure are a lot of 666's appearing these days.

Note Added Tuesday, 7/30/24, at 5:46 PM EST: Bitcoin is 66.2K after falling like a rock to 65.3K a few hours ago (a -7% collapse from 70K in only a couple days). Where's King Donnie? Like the ole Wall Street adage says, "If Donnie likes bitcoin at 70K, he's going to love it at 65K." Pause for laughter. Markets generally became soggy today after Israel fired a missile into Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah killing Muslim children on Israel's land a few days ago. Gold pops to 2452. Mr Softy sh*ts the bed this evening with earnings. Everyone is waiting on the Fed decision tomorrow afternoon and more importantly, the commentary by Pope Powell. He is carving the tablets tonight that he will bring down from On High tomorrow when he rides into the FOMC meeting and press conference on his pale green horse.

Note Added Friday, 8/2/24, at 8:38 PM EST: A cascading stock market selloff circles the globe with investors chasing notes and bonds sending yields lower. Bitcoin collapses to 61,320. Where's King Donnie Trump? Hey orange head, if you liked bitcoin at 70K, you are going to love it at 61K. Trump is a fade when it comes to trading or business.

Note Added Sunday, 8/4/24, at 6:33 PM EST: Bitcon pukes down to 57,211 about 5 hours ago. S&P futures are on line and collapsing -53 points. Where's King Donnie Trump? Hey orange head, if you liked bitcoin at 70K, you are going to love it at 57K. That's funny. Trump is a fade. He jinxed bitcoin.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 8/4/24: The cascading global stock market selloff, quickly becoming a crash, continues rotating around the world.  Bitcoin is in retreat to 57K a dramatic drop after former President Trump, King Donnie, proclaimed that 70K was a permanent floor for bitcoin a la Irving Fisher before the 1929 stock market crash. That's funny.

Note Added Monday Morning, 8/5/24, at 3:30 AM EST: Bitcoin is in retreat to 52,442 a -25% crash from the 70K top that King Donnie Trump declared to be 'a permanent high plateau a la Irving Fisher'. Donnie is a fade. If you listened to the orange head, you lost -25% of your money in only a few day's time.

Note Added Monday Morning, 8/5/24, at 9:01 AM EST: Bitcoin is in collapse to 49,895. Hey Donnie, if you liked it at 70K, you will love it in the 40's. 

Note Added Monday Evening, 8/5/24, at 6:30 PM EST: Bitcoin recovers to 54,871. Buyers came in as soon as the 40-handle appeared. Donnie is on his knees, praying that bitcoin rallies so it can be used as a campaign prop.

V Visa and AXP American Express Weekly Charts; Consumer Spending Driven by America's Wealthy Class

The US consumer is spending and having such a good ole time that Visa and Mastercard stocks are.... a .... well, .. puking for the last 5 months. Say what? Consumer spending is supposed to be rosy. If the consumer is doing so well, spending money supporting the economy, V and MA should be going to the moon. They aren't. Instead they are turds circling the toilet for the last few months.

That does not make sense. Oh, wait. Let's take a look at American Express. When bigshot Keystone walks into a restaurant, everyone bows before the platinum American Express card he waves in the air. The red carpet is rolled out but he feels odd considering he is wearing boots, jeans and a tee shirt. The establishments do not care; he has a platinum card.

American Express is a gauge of the wealthy spending while Visa and Mastercard more reflects everyday spending by everyday folks. There you go. AXP launches from the lower left to the upper right in a joyous orgy move so obscene Caligula would blush. That is the answer. The elite privileged class, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, are supporting the economy with their consumer spending (using their American Express cards).

These wealthy folks are filthy rich due to the Federal Reserve's money printing for 15 years. Stocks went through the roof so the wealthy have money to burn feeling groovy from the 'wealth effect'. They are taking trips, dining on fine wine and caviar, and buying expensive jewelry, clothes and cars. It's a tough life, but someone has to do it. Sadly, one-half of the United Stated population, the have-not's, do not own a single share of stock. They were spit on for the last 15 years by the Federal Reserve, while the wealthy, that control America's filthy crony capitalism system, were shoving money into their pockets like there was no tomorrow. It is simple to make money when your thumb is on the scale. Everything is Broken as Bob sings.

The wealthy class, the have's, are supporting the US economy and have put the overall US recession on hold for the last year despite the ongoing recessions in housing, manufacturing and the labor market. It is plain as day in the charts above. The spending by the regular Ma and Pa consumers, the smelly Walmart people, Keystone's peeps, is not supportive of Visa and Mastercard for almost a half-year while the spending by America's wealthy, that became wildly rich from the rigged game they control, sends AXP to the moon.

The Mastercard chart is the same as the Visa chart. The top call in V was easy. Overbot conditions, negative divergence (red lines) and the Tweezer Top (blue circle) smacked price lower on the weekly basis that continues with lower lows and lower highs. Note the tight band squeeze (purple arrows) that forced a big move and price fell from 280 to almost 250.

V is setting up for a bottom on the weekly basis with money flow and stochastics positively diverged (green lines) but you can see the RSI, MACD and histo all remain weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price on the weekly basis. It may bottom in a week or so as long as the entire stock market does not fall off a cliff. The V daily chart is setting up with possie d so it wants the bounce move now in the daily time frame. V and MA may rally for a few days but then roll over and die on the weekly basis again. Simply watch for the possie d to completely set up on the weekly chart and you can play them long.

AXP is a different animal. It looks like the wealthy will have their comeuppance. The AXP weekly chart is set up with neggie d so it should receive a spankdown and the start of a multi-week decline. You would have to check if earnings are on tap for any of these tickers since that will temporarily impact price. Retail stocks will be uber important in the week ahead since it is currently the top market parameter impacting stock market direction according to the Keybot the Quant algorithm.

The AXP daily and 2-hour charts are lining out sideways perhaps favoring a sideways triangle pattern going forward. They are not helpful for forecasting direction.

Keystone does not own any of these tickers long or short. On V, probably best to wait a week or three and watch for the weekly chart to set up with possie d across all indicators and go long for the substantive relief rally. V will probably pop this week but that move higher will likely roll back over as August starts. On AXP, a short position can be started now with the idea of adding to it and nurturing the position for the next month or so.

The charts clearly show that America's wealthy, that use the rigged crony capitalism system to build massive riches, courtesy of the Fed, are the consumers spending money that keeps the US economy floating along. The V chart shows that Joe Sixpack is getting tighter with money because making ends meet gets tougher every month.

Money isn't everything, folks. But the wealthy always say that. Keystone prefers the simple life like Jed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/29/24, at 6:24 AM EST: Scamazon reports yearnings on Thursday so that release is uber important to gauge the US consumer. How long can America's wealthy, that control the rigged crony capitalism game, keep spending money to prevent a recession? People on the street will tell you that it feels like the country is already in recession. Rich folks are busy looking at their huge stock market gains, courtesy of the Fed, and enjoying the comforting 'wealth effect' vibe. These have's are planning their next travel experience. Perhaps a road trip in the new $100K Mercedes sounds like fun? The have-not's are concerned about their kid's feet having to stay crunched in small shoes until they have enough money to buy a new pair. Welcome to crony America.

Note Added Friday Morning, 8/2/24, at 6:45 AM EST: Amazon reports yearnings and soils the sheets collapsing -9%. The US consumer must be running out of gas. Stocks sold off in force yesterday and the selling cascades around the world. The US Monthly Jobs Report is less than 2 hours away.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Potential Island Reversal; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Lower Band Violation

Time to talk about the potential island reversal pattern again. Scroll back for prior discussions about the pattern. The green gap shows price jumping from 5380 to 5410 the gap-up move starting the formation of the island. Pope Powell flaps his dovish wings causing bulls to salivate and buy any stock with a heartbeat. The joyous activity sends the SPX higher to the all-time record high at 5669.67. Sound the Seven Trumpets!

Thus, after the Powell push, happy inflation data, the July 4th holiday joy and more AI hype by Jensen waving a new chip in the air while riverdancing, stocks rocket launch to the record high. That bullish orgy creates a mountain on the island and on the other side of the island a landslide occurs now all the way back down to the shore line at 5400-5410. There are two palm trees on the island now as time moves along. Elvis and the Attractions are on the island looking for light in the darkness of insanity.

There are three paths. Bounce from this strong support at 5400-5410, or, collapse with a nasty gap-down move where price lands at 5380 and lower in a heartbeat gapping back down through the green gap, which would be an island reversal pattern, or, price may simply leak lower slowly filling the gap at 5380-5400.

Price failed to bounce from the 50-day MA at 5432 instead falling through so a back kiss will be needed at some point forward. The upper standard deviation band (purple) was violated for the all-time high so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA, now at 5545, is on the table as well as the lower band at 5406 and both targets were achieved. Sugar, water, purple, like Chappelle jokes. Since price now violated the lower standard deviation band the middle band at 5545 is now on the table during a relief rally. That being the case, perhaps the island wants to grow a bit longer before giving way.

There are two big gaps above, one at 5500-5550, big enough to drive a truck through it, and another up at 5625-5650. The blue circles show distribution taking place that was the smart money sloughing off shares to the dumb money. Were you one of the bag holding sucka's that were buying stocks up through 7 days ago? The investment houses were glad to give you shares; they cash-out and take the dough while you are left holding the bag. How do you feel, sucka?

The red lines show the top occurring due to the negative divergence, overbot conditions and rising wedge pattern. The rising wedge is textbook with price taking the steep drop from the apex. The money flow is flat indicating that dip-buyers want to step back in but still have cold feet. The RSI, MACD, histogram and stochastics are weak and bleak (sloping down) wanting to see more lower lows on the daily basis. This hints that either the gap fill at 4400-4410 will occur or an island reversal where price gaps down to 5380 and lower.

The 100-day MA at 5287.666 typically acts as solid support when an index or ticker begins to drop in earnest. The 5250-5320 congestion zone should act as support on the way down and the 100-day is inside this range. The chart is weak and bleak as per the red lines. The stochastics are now oversold so they will be agreeable to a bounce in the days ahead. At least 2 up-down jog moves are likely needed to set up a possie d bottom (up-down-up-down for the bottom which would be 4 days out the middle or back end of next week; when Pope Powell takes the stage on 7/31/24). That 5288 is a neon sign flashing. I'm Jumpin' Jack Flash.

The SPX weekly chart topped-out due to neggie d. Scroll back to those SPX charts that explained the topping process. It is all systems go for a multi-week pullback (it has only just started). Trading is playing multi-dimensional chess with time as the dimensions. Thus, the daily chart is weak but should set up for a relief rally starting next week. The weekly chart, however, wants lots more downside ahead on the weekly basis so after a relief rally occurs on the daily chart, the SPX should roll over again and make lower lows on the weekly basis going forward. Your trading positions depend on if you are a day trader, swing trader, short-term or medium-term trader. Use the charts for timing. Medium and long-term, however, it looks like lower and lower stock prices.

The upper band was violated on the weekly chart so the middle band, the 20-wk MA at 5301 is on the table, again in that 5250-5320 support range mentioned above and only a few points from the 100-day MA at 5288. The 5288-5301 is a magnet range from where the daily chart may bounce and try to recover.

The SPX monthly chart is ugly in negative divergence across all chart indicators. Despite the over the top euphoria about the stock market with predictions of SPX 6,000, especially with rate cuts coming, the charts say there is nothing but pain and misery ahead, a la Elvis's song above, for weeks and months, and perhaps a year or few ahead. Are you ready for that? The charts are nasty and interestingly, that upper gap at 5625-5650 may not get filled until 5 years from now; wouldn't that be interesting?

Comically, Pope Powell will ride into the markets on his pale green horse next Wednesday, 7/31/24. Powell will bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade. He is expected to set September up (9/18/24) for a rate cut but the worry is that he may be waiting too long to cut. Rumor has it that Powell is spotted at the local dry cleaners picking up his white dove suit in preparation for next week. The BOJ decision is also on tap for next hump day which will hugely impact the dollar/yen currency pair and impact global stock and bond markets.

Keystone continues holding index shorts and Keybot the Quant remains short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/26/24, at 6:27 AM EST: S&P futures are up +41 so the bulls are trying to stage a New York comeback, like Lucinda. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, you can see the indicators setting-up with positive divergence explaining the prospective pop in this VST (very short term). The daily chart remains weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in the daily time frame and the weekly and monthly charts remain ugly and topped-out as explained above. Perhaps the crony capitalism filth is crumbling before your eyes.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/30/24, at 4:29 AM EST: The SPX is at 5464 as Pope Powell is on deck. The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today and Powell will bring the tablets down from On High tomorrow with the rate decision and future path. This week is nutso, probably the most critical week of the year, with major tech and other earnings on tap, the Fed decision and set-up for future rate cuts, the BOJ decision, and the Jobs Report. Stocks rally about 80% of the time on Tuesday and Wednesday going into a Wednesday Fed meeting and S&P futures are up +11 this morning thus far. The ride this week becomes bumpy from here out. Fasten your seat belts as pretty Bette decrees.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

The stock market top arrives as per the rampant complacency and fearlessness. Stocks were ready to top out in late June but the festivities were delayed a couple-three weeks due to the Independence Day holiday, Pope Powell flapping his dovish wings (rate cuts coming), happy inflation data and Jensen waving a black box in the air every 10 minutes proclaiming that AI is the Second Coming.

Typically, you do not want to nibble on longs until the CPC moves higher towards and above 1.20 when panic and fear sets-in. That level tells you that people are selling their stocks in a panic, throwing the baby out with the bathwater, swearing they will never buy a stock again. Of course, that is when you want to buy. The prior three peaks above the green line were tradable bottoms in the stock market.

You knew the stock market was topping-out due to the rampant complacency and negative divergence on the SPX charts; nothing to it. Even as a few days ago, there were jackasses on television and the internet proclaiming that everyone was pessimistic so stocks had a long way to rally. Dolts. All these idiots had to do was look at the charts to verify the sentiment. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short yesterday morning at SPX 5615. Watch volatility, copper, commodities and chips. Nothing Else Matters.

Keybot the Quant

Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/21/24: Keybot is updated for the drama ahead. Keybot the Quant.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart Displays the 666 Bottom in March 2009 and Potential 5666 Top in July 2024?

The United States stock market, the S&P 500, SPX, places the bottom at 666 in March 2009 and interestingly, may top out at 5666 in July 2024? Over the last 15 years, the Federal Reserve's money printing has created vast wealth for the privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy; the have's. Crony capitalism gone amuck.

One-half of Americans, the have-not's, do not own a single share of stock. Capitalism does not exist. If you accept this fact, everything will make a lot more sense to you. The have's continue spending their obscene stock market gains keeping the overall US economy out of recession while common Americans suffer each day to make ends meet and many cannot pay their bills while working two jobs. Welcome to crony America. Time will tell if the mark of the beast is having mischievous fun. It's a Long Way to the Top. We need some bagpipe. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/17/24, at 5:43 AM EST: The bulls push above 5666 in the final few minutes of trading on Tuesday. The SPX prints a new closing high at 5667.20 and new all-time high at 5669.67. Comically, the 0.67 cents portion is rounded up from 0.666. The beast remains mischievous.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/21/24: The SPX topped out at that 5670 last Tuesday so 0.666 marks the top. The SPX is at 5505 losing 165 points, -3%, in only 3 days. The S&P 500 drops more than -1% for each of the two days after the all-time historic high at 5670 is printed. This behavior has never happened before in stock market history.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 7/24/24, at 5:10 PM EST: The US stock market sh*t the bed today. The SPX mini-crashes 129 points, -2.3%, to 5427. The Dow collapses 504 points, -1.3%, to 39854 below 40K. The Nazzy mini-crashes 655 points, -3.6%, to 17342. .

XLF Financials ETF Weekly Chart; Bank Earnings Season Begins; Potential Triple Top (that are supposed to not exist); Negative Divergence; Tight Standard Deviation Bands Forecast Big Move Ahead; Price Extended

The bankster yearnings are on tap this morning starting with JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The results are only a couple hours away. Wow!! Hey everyone, the Wells Fargo wagon is a comin' down the street!! Of course the bank earnings over the coming days will dictate the path ahead even though the chart is set up negatively.

The blue stars show the potential triple top in the XLF an ETF that holds banks, insurers and other financials. We watched the Apple triple top a short time ago, that turned out to not be a triple top because price catapulted higher on more AI hype. Instead of AI, they should call it AJ for, "Ask Jeeves."

As Keystone has said many times, trip tops are 50/50 propositions. Even though the old adage says, "Triple tops do not exist," they actually hold about half the time (price drops from the third peak) and fail half the time (price jumps higher nullifying the third peak).

The three peaks in price come with negative divergence across all chart indicators (red lines) so the XLF wants to begin a multi-week slide lower technical-wise but as stated above, bank earnings are on tap so flip a coin. The upper band is at 42.48 so it would be prudent for price to tag that number on the top side. The purple arrows show a tight band squeeze occurring so the move from earnings is going to be a big one. Unfortunately, tight bands only predict magnitude and not direction.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The Aroon green line shows that about 70% of the bank bulls expect prices to continue higher forever while the red line shows that 100% of the bank bears have capitulated and believe that prices will continue higher forever. That's funny. The bank bears have left town and are in hibernation. The Aroon is a contrary indicator. If you look at the early 2023 fractal (brown box), that is where she is at again, and that created an exciting collapse as the red line shoots higher and green line collapses.

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher for the financials remains in place although it is trending lower and may fall out of the box over the next couple weeks or month. The ADX is a lagging indicator that will serve as confirmation that trouble is on tap as the strong trend higher is lost.

The purple circles show distribution occurring all year long (smart money passing off shares to the dumb money). Analysts and money managers appear on business television touting banks because they are pumping and dumping. They need the public to serve as the bag holdin' sucka's.

The XLF daily chart is also in negative divergence wanting to top-out, however, there is VST momo occurring this week. Short-sellers are likely covering their negative bets ahead of earnings adding upside fuel. There are insider traders already trading off earnings numbers they know but the public does not. Wall Street is a corrupt casino; everyone knows that. If earnings were not on tap, banks would be expected to become soggy and roll over for a multi-week drop.

The chart is set up for a multi-week slide lower but the earnings can change that picture for a couple weeks or so. If the trip top is nullified and price takes off higher, the XLF will then set up for the multi-week slide in 2 to 4 weeks. Simply watch for the neggie d to reform. Keystone is not long or short any of the banks or financials (except what is held in generalized index shorts). Let the festivities begin. A lot will be known over the next couple hours.

XLF begins the day at the 42.24 palindrome. In the pre-market, XLF is up to 42.40 and tagged 42.48 (upper band) a couple hours ago. Of course, these numbers will change once the corrupt Three Stooges release their earnings. JPM is 207.45 now trading at 207.21 in the pre-market. C is 65.71 now trading at 65.53. WFC is 60.16 now trading at 60.01. 

Everyone is impatient for the bank earnings. That sounds like the latest song from Pixies that just dropped. Love the rock 'n roll driving beat. You're So Impatient. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:00 AM EST: JPM and WFC are the first banks out of the gate with earnings and they fall on their face. A wheel just fell off the Wells Fargo wagon and no one is singing anymore. WFC collapses -6% to 56.70. JPM loses -0.8% to 205.80. C sits at 65.70 and XLF is at 42.23 now flat losing all the pre-market joy.

Note Added 9:24 AM EST: C bucks the negative trend topping expectations gaining +1.4% to 66.65. JPM 206.49. WFC 56.50. XLF sits at the 42.24 palindrome in the pre-market unsure on which way to run.

Note Added 9:33 AM EST: The US trading session begins with Citi leaking lower. C 65.70. JPM 203.49. WFC 55.97. XLF 42.27.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/13/24, at 5:40 AM EST: The bank yearnings are off and stumbling. JPM finishes yesterday down -1.2% to 204.94 flat on the week. C is thwacked -1.8% to 64.52. WFC lost a couple wheels off the Wells Fargo wagon collapsing -6% to 56.54 a huge gap-down. Television pundits that just lost their shirts are proclaiming that now is the best time to buy WFC. Despite the negativity in the kick-off of the bank earnings with the Three Stooges, the XLF floats higher +0.3% to 42.38 on Friday. XLF pops +2% this week ahead of the yearnings. The trip top remains and next week's bank earnings will dictate if triple tops exist, or if they don't. V, MA, GS, BX, PGR, CB, AIG and PNC are higher on Friday providing lift to XLF. Thus, credit card companies and insurers helped buoy the XLF. Regional bank earnings will come into play next week. America's garbage crony capitalism system allows thousands of unneeded banks to operate that only pose a threat to the overall financial system. KRE gains a huge +9% last week to 52.09; keep an eye on it.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/16/24, at 6:00 AM EST: Goldman Sachs reports yearnings yesterday and creates happy action in the financial space. GS finishes the Monday session up a huge +2.6% and the XLF catapults +1.5% higher to 43.00. The banksters are popping champagne corks while guzzling Fed wine. It's party time at the corrupt casino.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/16/24, at 7:00 AM EST: BAC reports happy numbers and pops +2% in the pre-market. The banksters break out in song; Happy Days Are Here Again, la, la, la.....  No more cares or troubles. Wheeee. Whoopie. Morgan Stanley will report shortly and try to keep the financial party going. XLF 43.15. JPM 210.69. C 65.55. WFC 58.00. KRE joins the bank orgy jumping higher to 54.31. XLF launches higher verifying that 'triple tops do not exist'.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/16/24, at 8:35 AM EST: MS soils the sheets collapsing -3% on earnings to 102.12. XLF 43.09.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/17/24, at 5:50 AM EST: The big bank earnings euphoria creates a new all-time high in the SPX at 5670 and sends the small cap indexes to the moon. Regional banks will put their cards on the table in the days ahead. XLF rocket launches higher to 43.49, into the stratosphere, out of the tight bands. Remember, tight bands tell you a big move is coming but do not predict direction; in this case it was obviously up.

US Monthly Jobs Report; Jobs Created Trending Downward for Last 2-1/2 Years

Draw the trend lines for the creation of US jobs over the last 2-1/2 years any way you like and they all end up the same; sloping downward. Keystone draws three trend lines with a purple crayon. He likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes. The jobs created in the US Monthly Jobs Report have leaked lower for the last 2-1/2 years. What part of that don't you understand? Pope Powell shifts his main focus from inflation to the softening labor market perhaps worried that he has waited too long to cut rates.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; US LABOR RECESSION STARTED 9/8/23 NOW 10 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 10 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING. The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot. That is craziness.

The economy is carried on the backs of the wealthy elite, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, as they continue to spend money feeling the wealth effect after decades of easy stock market gains courtesy of the Federal Reserve's money-printing. Tech is the overriding force in the markets these days as chips are worshipped like the golden calf in the desert. Semiconductors are the new gold and the AI afterburners launch the tech euphoria into the stratosphere. These forces, the wealthy with pockets full of money, and the tech/semi/AI hype trade, are overcoming the sickness in the labor market, housing market and manufacturing sector.

However, as Willie sings, all good things come to an end and the Party's Over. For the last couple months, the wealthy elite and upper middle class are showing signs of less spending perhaps some now worried that their cushy job, lying around at home, doing minimal productive work, has an expiration date. Airports continue setting records for travel so it will be interesting to see if that lessens. Artificial Intelligence, AI, has become All-In with the Uber guy, shoeshine boy and doorman buying NVDA with entire paychecks.

Here is the link to the prior chart and commentary that provides more color on America's crony capitalism system in its last throes.

The unemployment rate continues higher now at 4.1% as shown on the righthand side of the chart the highest since December 2021, 2-1/2 years ago, when the rate was 4.2% and on its way lower in 2022 and 2023. The low prints were a 3.4% rate in February 2023 and May 2023. The US unemployment rate is now 0.7% above those lows.

The blue line is diverging up and away from the red line which means trouble ahead and it is time to watch your wallet. Over the coming weeks and months, some of you will be called into the boss's office that will tell you to clear your desk drawers, pack up your family pictures, house plant that needs watered, and change for the coffee machine, and get the Hell out. Oh yeah, hand in your badge and door card since you are no longer allowed in the building. Branded.

Young adults under 40 years old will learn a lot about yourselves and the people around you as the country slides into recession this year. You lived through the pandemic recession but that was an oddball animal in its own right. In an economic recession, you or your significant other will likely lose your job, maybe both of you, so obviously you should already be planning for such an outcome. Also understand, that if you think it is easy to get another job now and you are not worried, you are living a false reality. In a recession, hundreds of other folks will now want the same available job and the guy that told you to call him anytime you wanted to work for him now does not even take your phone calls.

For the next Jobs Report on 8/2/24, the unemployment rate can be 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, and higher, for the US labor recession to continue. The rate would need to drop to 3.7% or lower to nullify the labor recession and instead point towards a steadier growth pattern ahead. With the rate at 4.1% now, in an uptrend, it is hard to imagine that a 3.7% print will occur in 4 weeks. It would be a huge 0.4% pullback. It is easier to Imagine, as John sings, that a 4.2%, 4.1% or 4.0% number will occur on 8/2/24. It appears that, like Uncle Bob in a guest room downstairs, the labor recession is here to stay and does not want to leave.