SOX, NVDA and MRVL Weekly Charts; Artificial Intelligence (AI) Orgy Party in Full Swing

The AI orgy party is in full swing. The House is Rockin' as Stevie Ray used to play. There's some bad honky-tonkers laying it down here today for Memorial Day. Thank you to all who gave their lives for the United States.

Companies are saying the words "artificial intelligence" to watch their stock prices jump instantly higher. It is reminiscent of the bitcoin/blockchain hype. You coul be selling shoes or plumbing supplies but when you said blockchain your stock doubled. Same-o now.

Marvell rocket launches on the AI hype. The orgy is marvelous if long MRVL. Booiiiinnnng. The green lines show the falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence for all chart indicators that guarantied the bottom and move higher. The blue inverted H&S has a head at about 35 and neck at 46 so that is a difference of 11 so the upside target for the head and shoulders pattern is 46 +11 or 57 and it occurs satisfying the H&S.

MRVL is at 66 with upside momentum in play for all the chart indicators so she likely needs about 2 to 4 weeks to top-out. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down. A cross above 68 will likely open the door to 72. The 71 to 76 zone is a good candidate for where Marvell may top-out on the weekly basis in about 3 weeks. Simply watch the progress of the chart and you can call the top when the indicators all go neggie d.

NVIDIA is the poster boy for the AI orgy. The CEO is in Taiwan waving chips around in the air as if it was the Holy Eucharist. Traders buy NVDA with both fists knowing there will be a bigger fool around the next day to unload the shares. When you look around and there is no one there to sell your shares to, well, you realize that you are the bigger fool.

NVDA takes out its prior high from late 2021 which hints that MRVL may want to do the same. NVDA prints the new price high with the histogram, stochastics and money flow in negative divergence. The RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The MACD line is working up towards nosebleed levels. The negativity hints that a rest may be needed on a weekly basis (pulse backward for price) but the upside is not finished.

The MACD line remains long and strong wanting another price high after price retreats due to the negativity (red lines). A potential outcome is a jog move, down one week, then back up for the following week to a matching or higher price high at which time the MACD line and RSI will go neggie d joining the other indicators and calling the top for NVDA on the weekly basis. You do not have to guess; simply watch the progress of the chart and you can call the top.

NVDA also displays an inverted H&S pattern. With a head at 110 and neckline at 190 that is 80 difference so the upside target, if the neck is violated, is 270. Price breaks up through the neckline and tags 270 satisfying the H&S.

The SOX semiconductor index is shown above and it also enjoys a two-week orgy rally due to the AI hype. Folks, artificial intelligence is not going to clear your stuffed-up toilet during a graduation party or fix the flickering light and faulty wiring in your dining room. However, Joe the Plumber and Edna the Electrician will.

The SOX is hitting some price resistance from a year ago. The new high over the last 3 months comes with the histogram, stochastics and ROC in neggie d and the RSI and stoch's at overbot levels agreeable to a pullback on the weekly basis. However, the RSI remains sloping higher. Ditto the MACD line and there is momentum in price due to the AI hype.

Thus, a jog move is needed before she can top-out (down-up). The red lines will create sogginess probably in the week ahead but the green lines will try to create more lift in price after the pullback. Thus, the socks should top-out in a week or two; the chart will lead the way and once the weekly chart is ready to give up the ghost, the daily and hourly charts can time the short entries.

In the previous Amazon chart, Keystone told you these babies were not ready to short as yet. Anyone shorting NVDA or MRVL is now wearing a loin cloth and holding a tin cup. The charts show that SOX and NVDA have a good chance of topping-out in a week or two but MRVL may take 3 weeks or so. There is no reason to become involved in the AI orgy long or short right now. Wait for the charts to set up as described above and you can probably begin to short in a couple weeks. Let the charts tell you when. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 4197 on Friday. It is more choppy slop as the debt talks continue. The thieves on Wall Street knew ahead of time that Treasury Secretary Yellen was changing the drop-dead date for the debt crisis from June 1 to June 5, extending the deadline, so they were already on board as Joe Retail jumped in to chase the AI orgy rally higher. Such is America's corrupt crony capitalism system in its last throes.

Watch NYA, VIX and RTH. One of them will flinch and tell you the path forward for the stock market.

Keybot the Quant

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; NYA Loses 40-Week MA at 15138 Ushering-In Cyclical Bear Market but Battle Continues

NYA loses the critically important 40-week MA at 15138 which places the US stock market back into a cyclical bear pattern. It's All Over Now, Baby Blue. The vagabond is knocking at your door.

However, just like when price popped above the 40, caution was warranted since it may not stick. It did not. Same-o now. Give it a few days or week or two to see if NYA remains below 15138. If so, there will be lots of downside pain ahead for the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 5/28/23: Despite the euphoric AI orgy rally on Friday, the NYA was unable to move back above the 40-wk MA at 15139. Price rallied to 15119 on Friday then fell on its sword. If you are bullish and chasing the rally, you better hope that NYA moves above 15139, otherwise, you will lose your shirt.

Note Added Friday, 6/2/23, at 6:05 AM EST: The NYA comes back up to 15031 with a HOD yesterday at 15070 within striking distance of the 40-wk MA at 15139. NYA fell through the critical 40-wk MA last week so price may be performing a back kiss now to make sure it wants to go down (bounce or die decision at 15139). If price goes up to 15139 and fails, Katy bar the door since there will be very bad stuff beginning for the stock market. Bulls may be able to usher-in a couple more weeks or so of buoyancy in stocks if NYA pops above 15139. US Monthly Jobs Report drops in a couple hours.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4128. Watch volatility, the NYA, retail stocks and chips. VIX 19.25 is a key bull/bear line in the sand right now with VIX trading in real-time at 19.38 only pennies away. If stocks rally today due to the NVDA AI hype, and the VIX does not drop below 19.25, the rally is phony-baloney and will roll over to the downside. Bulls must send NYA back above 15138, otherwise the stock market will fall apart.

Keybot the Quant

CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Complacency Forecasts Big Drop in Stocks Coming

The fuse is lit. The low put/call ratios predict selling ahead for the stock market probably between 150 and 400 points of downside for the SPX. More worrisome is the failure in the utilities that tells you a far more serious breakdown is in play going forward for stocks for the weeks and months ahead that may make a 400 point drop in the SPX look like child's play.

Plan accordingly if long. Keystone does not own many longs. Pot stocks are still favorites on the long side. Perhaps in a big selloff people are going to want to smoke their worries away. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AMZN Amazon Weekly Chart; C&H; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

The C&H (cup and handle) pattern mentioned 3 weeks ago for Scamazon continues on its merry way. Tech stocks are on a big run higher, the Nazzy 100 is an orgy, the AI hype is off the charts, chips are bid higher, and AMZN, AAPL, NVDA and other big players continue higher one fool buying off the other fool.

The bottom call in AMZN as the year began was easy-peasy as the green lines show. All the indicators were positively diverged so price was loaded up with rocket fuel and on the launchpad. Stochastics were oversold, as well as the RSI near and previously at oversold levels, both agreeable to a recovery move higher. The Aroon green circles show that at the bottom in price, bearish traders (red line) were at their maximum and bullish traders (green line) were also convinced that AMZN would simply continue lower. It is a contrarian indicator and price bounces from all this positivity to begin the year.

The C&H pattern forms with 103 head and 84 bottom of the cup so that is 19 points. Adding 19 to the breakout brim level of the cup at 103 is 122 upside target. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down. Thus, pay attention to 118 because a move higher and couple days of closing above 118 tells you that 122 is likely.

The red lines show neggie d in play. The MACD line and stochastics, however, remain long and strong wanting another high in price on the weekly basis. Amazon is close to topping-out on the weekly basis but not yet. It appears the timing is in sync with the debt ceiling talks that are ongoing between the corrupt demopublicans and republocrats on crony Capitol Hill. The stoch's are overbot and agreeable to a pullback so even though the line slopes higher, she will probably top out over the coming days and couple weeks.

The MACD line likely needs a jog move (down-up) to put her into negative divergence. Price is soggy to begin this week, hence the red candlestick, and displaying neggie d as described. The Aroon also shows that the bulls are completely confident that Amazon will continue far higher and the bears are also convinced that the bulls are right. Aroon is a contrary indicator so it is telling you that the price action is toppy on the weekly basis.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Amazon may be soggy this week but the long and strong MACD line says another high is ahead on the weekly basis probably the first few days of June as the debt ceiling deadline comes to a head. At that time, check to make sure the MACD goes neggie d as price makes the matching or higher high, joining the other indicators in negative divergence, and if so, you can call the top in AMZN on the weekly basis. A multi-week downturn will then begin as price receives the neggie d spankdown.

For now, she is not there yet. Watch 118 since that may paint the way to the 122 C&H target. If bearish, you want price to tag 118+ and the MACD line to show neggie d and the top in place. The next week or two will tell the story.

Keystone is not in AMZN long or short. Best to wait a week or two and watch the chart as described. The low put/calls and utilities collapse tells you bigtime selling in stocks is at hand and will begin anytime forward (probably 150 to 400 points of downside for the SPX). Stay alert if long stocks because you may only be wearing a loin cloth a couple-three weeks from now.

As soon as the MACD line goes neggie d and joins the other chart indicators, the top is in on the weekly basis, probably anytime over the next 2 weeks. You can use this same analysis for the other high flyers like NVDA and AAPL. When the weekly chart goes neggie d, you can look at the 2-hour chart to time an entry for the short side. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD US Dollar Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts; Sideways Channel at 101-105; H&S; Megaphone (Expansion) Pattern Long-Term

It is a good time for another dollar dissertation. Here is a link to the previous charts of the US dollar to come up to speed with the saga. A few weeks ago, Keystone highlighted the battle on the greenback's weekly chart between the potential H&S (head and shoulders) chart pattern and the developing positive divergence. That is a good place to start.

On the dixie's (DXY; USD) weekly chart, the blue H&S remains in play. Price fails at the 102 neckline and teases the 100 psychological level and bounces. The neckline was violated hinting that the H&S will likely play out in the future. The head is 113 and neck at 102 so that is 11 points difference. Thus, the downside target for the H&S pattern is 102 minus 11 bucks or 91.

The green lines on the weekly chart, however, show the possie d in play (that was mentioned a few weeks ago). USD was loaded up with fuel to rocket higher 2 weeks ago since all the chart indicators are positively diverged (sloping higher; diverging higher against the dollar price that drops to matching or lower lows). Voila, the dollar bounces.

You can clearly see the positive divergence on the daily chart making the rally call simple. The weekly chart shows long and strong indicators so more upside on the weekly time frame is expected. Watch the RSI to see if it moves higher into bull territory above 50%, or not. If so, it verifies that a few weeks of up will continue.

Typically for a H&S pattern, price will fail at the neckline, then come up for a back kiss of the neck, sounds sexy, then a failure with price dropping to the downside target. The dollar bounces after the neckline failure but pops up through the neck and tests and overcomes the 20-wk MA at 102.68 (this will likely need a back kiss before price moves higher on the weekly basis).

The 101 to 105 multi-month sideways channel remains in play as shown by the thick purple lines on the daily chart and the thin purple lines on the weekly chart. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes. Obviously, dollar bulls win big above 105 and dollar bears will be euphoric below one hundo one. It is noise between 101 and 105.

On the daily chart, the orange circle shows a juicy upside gap at 105-ish that needs filled so perhaps price wants to go up to finish that business before beginning the longer-term downside again. As mentioned, the green lines on the daily chart show the possie d that developed during April launching price higher. USD bounces from the lower standard deviation band, through the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA at 101.78, and up to the upper band violation. This puts the middle band at 101.78 and rising sharply on the table as a downside target.

Staying with the daily chart, you see price rallying higher each day, jumping above the 50-day MA at 102.06 that will need a back test, and the MACD line and ROC remain long and strong wanting to see more price highs on the daily basis. The RSI, histogram and stochastics, and overbot stoch's, want price to roll back over to the downside but she will not top-out until all the indicators go neggie d. Thus, the upper channel rail and juicy gap at 105 are very much in play.

The possie d on the daily and weekly charts team-up to create the rally in the dollar over the last 2 weeks that wants to continue for a few more days in the daily time frame and continue for another 1 to 4 weeks, or more, on the weekly basis.

So it looks like the US dollar has short-term oomph and 105 is the upside target over the next couple weeks. Interestingly, a rise in the dollar would jive perfectly with a pullback in the stock market as the complacent put/call ratios and the ominous utilities predict (see previous charts).

Okay, so short-term, the dollar should remain buoyant and try to float up to 105 in the coming days and couple weeks or so, but what happens after that (when the weekly chart once again forms negative divergence so a top can be called on the weekly basis)? The monthly chart will help answer that question.

Remember, trading is playing 5-dimensional chess where you must balance the time frames (minutes, hours, days, weeks, months) against each other to form the path forward for price.

The USD monthly chart shows the megaphone pattern, or expansion pattern if you prefer, in play over the last decade. It is easy to see that dixie has a date with sub 90 numbers in the long-term (months and years ahead).

For now, the dollar bulls rule the roost in the daily and weekly time frames and the RSI, histogram and ROC on the monthly chart help create the buoyancy in the buck over the last couple weeks. Note, however, the MACD line and stochastics remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in the dollar as the months play out in sync with the expansion pattern that wants price to venture lower over the long-term.

The blue two-leg bull flag pattern was satisfied on the monthly chart. Price is clinging to the 20-month MA at 102.35 making a bounce or die decision. Watch the RSI on the monthly chart because when it rolls back over and drops below 50% into bear territory it will tell you that the demise of the buck is beginning and the H&S pattern on the weekly chart will begin to flex its muscles.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? All this fancy talk is something you hear from used car salesmen, politicians or a guy selling refrigerators to Eskimos. Balancing the time frames for the US dollar, the expectation is for further upside in the buck for 1 to 4 weeks, perhaps a bit more, with 105 the target, in concert with US stocks dropping, but then the buck will roll back over to the downside on the longer-term basis (months ahead) to honor the weak and bleak indicators on the monthly chart.

For now, the US dollar is making a New York Comeback, as Lucinda and the Boss sing. Keystone is not trading currencies currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:09 AM EST: USD is at 103.51 teasing the highs from Thursday. It is important to see if price continues higher from here, or not, since it is testing the resistance from a few days ago. Euro drops to 1.0774. Check that, dixie is now up to 103.56. She's starting to run higher.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/25/23, at 5:03 AM EST: Bingo. Old guys say bingo a lot. USD 104.06. The high in the dollar a few minutes ago was 104.16.

Note Added Tuesday, 5/30/23: USD 104.44.

Note Added 5/31/23: USD 104.61 (very close to the 105 upper channel rail).

Note Added 6/1/23: USD prints a high at 104.44 then falls on its sword down to 103.44 now at 103.50.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; 2-Leg Bull Flag Pattern Satisfied

Here's a look at the SPX 2-hour chart previously described. You can see the matching price high so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. The thin black line shows that when price makes the matching or higher high, the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow are neggie d wanting to see price receive a spankdown. In addition, the RSI is basically at the overbot level, and stochastics are overbot, both agreeable to a pullback. The chart is also neggie d for the month of May except for the MACD line.

Price needs to come up once more since she did not top off properly. The blue lines show price coming up and at that time, the MACD will likely roll over and slope down (neggie d) and the top can be called on the 2-hour.

Friday was set up for the top and price would have likely came back up for the matching high in the afternoon to seal the deal but the debt ceiling talks stall so stocks drop and remain soggy during the session and the MACD line remains long and strong.

If there is happy talk on the debt ceiling come Monday morning, that will provide the matching or higher price high and you can look at the MACD to see if it joins the other indicators in negative divergence and if so, you can call the top in the 2-hour time frame.

If the debt ceiling talk is negative, price will likely keep heading south and not return higher. The opposite occurred early in the month. Price made the lower low and all the indicators were positively diverged calling the bottom but one day later with price near the lows again, the MACD and money flow weakened again. It was a cheesy bottom that likely needed another few hours to be cast in stone but happy talk and inflation data in the market sent prices higher into the two-leg bull flag pattern.

The green two-leg bull flag pattern was up about 90 points on the first leg so when the second leg started, after the expected sideways to sideways lower consolidation move, at 4115, adding 90, is 4205 target which was achieved so the bull flag pattern was satisfied.

The 2-hour chart needs one more up so the MACD line can go neggie d and the top can be called and this may occur on happy debt ceiling talk. If the debt talk is negative, price will likely continue lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness Forecasts Stock Market Top Going Forward

Stocks break-out of the diamond pattern to the upside in a two-day bull orgy party. The bullish sentiment remains and actually explodes into euphoric optimism with most pundits proclaiming that stocks will rally big going forward.

The first leg of the rally going into the diamond pattern was 3825 to 4100 or 175 points. Thus, the break-out from the diamond from 4100-4125 targets 43 hundo. The SPX is at 4200 now.

Sucka's are chasing the rally higher. The last legitimate bottom in the stock market was in March when the panic and fear moved above CPC 1.20. Buy when people are panicking with their hair on fire. The opposite is occurring now. The put/call charts have been posted over the last month. This low CPC and CPCE behavior is atypical and reflective of the multi-month choppy slop with stocks.

The CPC drops to 0.82 verifying rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. Bulls are drunk as skunks buying stocks without any worry or fear (even though they wax fear and worry when speaking; watch what they do not what they say). Stocks are topping-out despite the pundit talk.

A big market mover in recent days is the debt ceiling discussions by the corrupt politicians. Optimism in an agreement is in play sending stocks higher but if McCarthy or Biden cough, and it sounds like they said the deal's off, stocks would probably retrace. This baby stuff will continue for another 2 weeks and may delay the topping process.

The stock market rally is also aided by the Artificial Intelligence (AI) hype and euphoria. Semiconductors are treated as gold with stock prices rocketing higher in names such as NVDA. It is not a broad market rally; it is an AI orgy. Everyone's in the jacuzzi drinking wine and having fun buying any chip stock with a heart beat.

Don't worry about AI. It is the latest favorite flavor. Remember nanotechnology was the big worry? Then it was bitcoin and blockchain? Then it was 5G? Now it is AI? Next it will be 6G or whatever they will call it. Xfinity (Comcast; CMCSA) is bragging about 10G. Much Ado About Nothing like Billy said. Pull the plug out of the wall and use a pen and paper if you are worried about AI. What you should be extremely worried about and focused on going forward is what all humans need for survival; food and water for sustenance and shelter and clothes for protection.

The CPC predicts a significant stock market top to print any day forward. As far as timing, simply watch for neggie d to form on the SPX 2-hour chart to call the top. The wildcard forward for a couple weeks is the debt ceiling negotiations that will sends stocks to and fro.

The utilities have failed bigtime and forecast a major stock market top to print between now and the next few weeks and the down move will be significant. The utes hint that the stock market, when it begins committing to the downside, will probably drop from -10% to -30% or maybe more. The utility warning should be respected.

Keybot the Quant remains long and is tracking XLF 32.79 as the bull/bear line in the sand today. As the banks go, so goes the market. Stocks will take another leg higher if XLF rallies past 32.79 today but if price has trouble getting up through this level, the downside will begin for the stock market. 

The SPX weekly chart is not inspiring with the highest SPX price since August (9-month high) but the histogram, stochastics and money flow are negatively diverged. The MACD line is flat with a slight upward bias ditto the RSI.

Since the CPC wants to see a top, what may occur is some backtracking on the debt ceiling discussions over the weekend so stocks will weaken. Fed Chair Powell speaks today at 11 AM EST comically right as the new moon peaks for the month just before noontime. Stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon each month and strong when moving through the full moon.

Thus, stocks may drop for a day or few, then the Congress *ssholes will kiss and make up and stocks will have lift again. This will set up the more significant top over the next 1 to 3 weeks that will begin a major slide south as per the utilities. Time will tell. Simply watch the charts and adjust the timing or analysis.

That 4300 target lingers for the diamond pattern so it must be respected and may occur over the next couple weeks but the charts will tell you if that is on the table or turns into a pipe dream. Watch for negative divergence on the SPX 2-hour chart and that will be worth bringing on shorts since the complacency is off the charts. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:48 AM EST: XLF is trading at 32.84 in the premarket. It tagged 32.84 a short time ago. The bulls are puffing their chests out and know what they need to pump higher; the banks and financials. The XLF 32.79 bull/bear line in the sand, identified by Keybot the Quant, tells you who wins going forward.

Note Added 8:37 AM EST: XLF is at 32.89 with the bulls high-fiving each other and throwing confetti. Nope, check that, now it is 32.88. Nope, now 32.87. Looks like lots of drama is ahead for the XLF 32.79 bull/bear line in the sand today.

Note Added 10:04 AM EST: XLF pops to 32.91 on the open and is now at 32.85 above the critical 32.79 line in the sand. Bulls rejoice but we are only talking pennies. Let the day play out. Bring up the SPX 2-hour chart. The 10 AM candlestick just started so there are matching price highs over the last few hours but the RSI, histogram and ROC are neggie d. The stochastics are way overbot in the stratosphere at 96% agreeable to a pullback. The MACD is long and strong so there is one more jog move likely before she tops out (down-up in the hourly time frames). Keystone bot some SDS. If you are long, it would be wise to take on some short ETF's for a likely drop lower for a few hours or day or three. The debt ceiling happy talk may save the day but technically, the SPX 2-hour is almost at the top. A jog move down, then back up for the top, places the top at 2 to 4 hours out so perhaps after lunch, this afternoon, maybe on Monday morning if things stretch out. This would jive with the new moon weakness. Also, perhaps Pope Powell stutters in his talk that begins within the hour creating angst. You do not have to guess. Simply watch the 2-hour and when the MACD line tops out and goes neggie d joining the other chart indicators, that is the top in the stock market in this very short term time frame useful for day and swing traders.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/20/23: Stocks live by the debt ceiling sword and die by the debt ceiling sword. The top did not form properly on the SPX 2-hour chart (MACD line is still sloping higher) because the debt ceiling talks stall and stocks turn south. XLF gave up the ghost ending the session down at 32.60 so the bulls are not receiving the needed help from the banks.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side yesterday at SPX 4137. The choppy slop continues. Chips, the NYA index and banks are what matter to the stock market currently. Bulls win big if XLF moves above 32.78 since it proves the upside is real. Bears will battle back and take control again if NYA loses 15150 and/or if SOX loses 3026. One of these Three Stooges will flinch and tell you which way stocks will go.

Keybot the Quant

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities in Failure Mode Again a Bad Omen for US Stocks

The utilities are once again in the pickle barrel portending very bad things ahead for the United States stock market. The 50-week MA is important as well as the closing price 15 weeks prior which determines if utes are in an uptrend or downtrend which then forecasts the direction for US stocks.

The price action for the last half-year is sideways choppy slop so the utilities have been signaling major trouble, but then the bulls battle back to nullify the signal, then the trap-door opens again, but the bulls keep managing to recover and prevent the guarantied negative outcome. Here we go again and this one may be the real deal.

When both of the above metrics fail, US stocks will peak-out either coincidentally or within 8 weeks and a significant downtrend in stocks will begin. It is not a run of the mill pullback. A utilities failure signals that the coming drop in stocks will be far worse than a regular pullback.

UTIL falls to 923 far below the critical 50-week MA at 957.40 and closing price 15 weeks ago at 953.58. Price has collapsed 30 points below the two critical metrics an extremely bad omen for US stocks going forward.

Further, the 15-week lookback comparison number for next week will be 945.77 and the 953.58 becomes meaningless. For the week of 5/29/23, the Memorial Day holiday-shortened week, the 15-week lookback number is 953.61 and the 945.77 will become meaningless. For the week of 6/5/23, the 15-week lookback number drops to 928.44. Thus, the failure in utes is maintainable for at least a couple weeks if not far longer (this signal may be difficult for the bulls to reverse).

The debt ceiling drama in Washington, DC, is creating the sideways action in stocks and this may continue into early June when the situation will be resolved one way or the other. The majority of traders expect a big rally after the debt ceiling is resolved. In addition, the standard path in front of a debt ceiling deadline is stocks drop creating fear and a sense of urgency which provides an incentive for the *sshole politicians to cut a deal. That is not happening this time around, at least not yet, although Friday is the new moon.

The utes failure tells you that stocks will peak-out and begin descending anytime forward. If stocks drop into the debt ceiling decision, the utes tell you it will not matter and stocks will continue lower. If stocks remain elevated into the debt ceiling decision, they will likely drop regardless of whether Congress resolves the matter or not.

The utilities trap-door has opened for the US stock market. The bulls only hope is to rally UTIL above 953 as fast as possible. Something wicked is coming your way and the vast majority of folks are clueless. Keep watching UTIL going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/18/23, at 7:16 AM EST: UTIL collapses to 921 a harbinger of bad times ahead but for now, the party is in full swing with traders tripping over each other to buy stocks.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/19/23, at 5:53 AM EST: UTIL tanks further to 917 with a LOD at the 909 palindrome.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/20/23: UTIL ends the week down at 914 remaining in failure mode and predicting very bad things for the stock market for the weeks and months ahead.

CRB Commodities Index Weekly Chart Continues 15-Month Downtrend

The CRB Commodities Index continues its 15-month path lower. A strong economy occurs in unison with commodities rising, not falling. The wealthy are still spending money but everyone else is rubbing two nickels together to get by each week. Even the wealthy run out of money to spend eventually. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/18/23, at 7:18 AM EST: Copper is down to November 2022 lows. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern Will Resolve with Debt Crisis Deadline; Kicking the Can the Most Likely Outcome; Sideways Channels

The US debt ceiling drama orchestrated and fueled by the dirtbag republocrats and demopublicans continues. An early June deadline is set by Treasury Secretary Yellen that used to be in Fed Chairman Powell's job. Yellen is currently using extraordinary measures to pay the US bills but says a default will occur in 2-1/2 weeks if the Congress (republican House, democrat Senate, democrat president like 2011) does not act to raise the debt ceiling.

This is the US credit card that needs an increase in its limit so the scum and filth can spend and waste more taxpayer money on nonsense. The incumbent party (democrats control the presidency and Senate) always cries and moans that the commitment for the current expenditures is based on decisions by Congress in the previous years so the debt ceiling should be automatically increased. The party that is only in partial power (republicans) or not in power will wax fear and worry that the US debt is unsustainable and spending limits must be maintained to keep the budget (of which there is no US budget due to the demopublican and republocrat incompetence) from blowing-up and destroying the full faith and confidence in the United States (it is already damaged and the US is a laughing stock due to stumbling, bumbling, mumbling and confused Alzheimer Joe steering the ship into the reef).

The crony capitalism system is on its last legs and it is fascinating to watch the final throes. All of you are going to get exactly what you deserve over the coming months and years; it will be shoved right down your throat until you gag on it. The 30 million upper middle class and elite privileged class screwed the other 300 million Americans over the last 5 decades and the game is over. It is payback time for the 300 million to screw the 30 million and during the coming years we will find out if the country survives. None of this is a surprise. Read world history. Crony capitalism is just another dirtbag ism like all the others that have been thrown into the dustbin of history. Human greed is the most powerful force and that will never change.

The SPX daily chart is forming a diamond pattern. Some say it is a diamond continuation pattern (price will continue in the direction that it comes into the diamond (in this case, up)) but other technicians will say it is a diamond reversal pattern. The truth is it is like a triple-top pattern where you can flip a coin as to the direction out of the diamond. The interesting aspect of the diamond pattern is that it comes to a crescendo, or denouement, exactly when the debt ceiling deadline hits in about 16 days (a couple weeks of so).

The purple multi-month sideways channel at 3800-4150 continues chewing-up bulls and bears and spitting them out. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste the best. The blue sideways channel is also in play at 4050-4160. A decision needs to be made since price is at the top trend lines of both channels. It is time to either bounce or die.

The red lines show the neggie d spankdown previously mentioned. Price tops out with all the indicators sloping lower (negative divergence; the indicators are negatively diverging away from price that continues higher which verifies that price is wrong and is about to receive a neggie d spankdown, and it does). The SPX is directionless now floating along sideways waiting for Powell and Yellen to bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade the debt ceiling dilemma.

So that is the back drop; more sick sideways choppy slop. The best thing for the country is to let the pile of sh*t go into default. Perhaps it is the only way to wake up Americans to the nasty economic and life times ahead. Crony capitalism is taking its final breaths so why not sit on its chest and end the mess right now so we can see if something new can be formed, or, if the complete failure of the US occurs during the next decade or two. World history is fun.

The likely outcome for the debt crisis, since time is short, is for the scumbag republocrats and demopublicans to kick the can down the road extending the deadline ceiling to a new date perhaps this November-December period.

The next most likely outcome is a default. The republicans have slightly more leverage than the democrats and their only hope at controlling Sleepy Joe Biden's insane wasteful spending is to force their bill to resolve the debt ceiling, which includes spending cuts, through the Senate but crying Chucky Schumer will not bring the bill up on the floor (isn't it sickening?).

President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are meeting this afternoon to discuss the debt crisis but it will only result in more bickering. Everything has become entertainment like ancient Rome; it is America's bread and circus days. Americans are fed-up with the corrupt politicians.

Do you understand that the two filthy political tribes place their agendas and narratives ahead of what is good for America or are you a stupid idiot? The democrats and republicans are two sides of the same filthy corrupt Washington, DC, coin.

The least likely outcome is an agreement on the debt ceiling right now, in real-time, since days will be required to write the text of the legislation. Choose your poison from the three outcomes. Once you understand that the US corrupt crony capitalism system is in its final throes, dramas like the debt ceiling will become more common place as will civil and social unrest and even attacks (hopefully not) on the privileged class's physical bodies and property (houses, businesses) will increase. This is Our Destiny created by human greed the most powerful force in humanity. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side after munchtime on Friday at SPX 4104 humorously where it went long a week earlier. The chop suey continues. Utilities, semiconductors and the NYA index, specifically 15162, are running the stock market show right now. Nothing Else Matters.

Keybot the Quant

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle for Cyclical Market Control at 40-Week MA at 15162

The NYA is back. The previous charts highlight this extremely important metric; the NYA 40-wk MA cross, now at 15164, call it 15160-15164 (since the moving average will nudge lower if/when price drops lower), since it dictates the fate of the stock market going forward.

Yesterday, price drops to 15176, so close to 15162 it could taste it, so price will likely want to make a touch so a critical bounce or die decision can be made.

The NYA begins at 15263 forecasting a cyclical bull market ahead but this transition zone has been in play since the end of last year. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. Bulls and bears must make a decision on who will be in control going forward.

Bulls win big going through the remainder of the year if the NYA tests 15162 and bounces. Bears win big if the NYA falls through 15162 since carnage will quickly follow. Stocks have been in a holding pattern as the debt ceiling crisis plays out.

You can go cut the grass and trim the hedges. Simply check NYA price and you will know what the US stock market will do in the near-term as well as going forward through 2023. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 5/13/23: NYA comes down for another look at the critical 15162 (15160-15164) with a LOD on Friday at 15167. That is super close only a few bucks away. Bulls would have been better off with a touch of the 40-wk MA before recovering into the closing bell. Now the touch remains on the table so price likely still has a date with 15162 in the days ahead to make the critical bounce or die decision and dictate the stock market's future. NYA begins a new week of drama on Monday at 15246.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side at SPX 4104. Utes, volatility and chips are running the show. The choppy slop continues.

Keybot the Quant

INDU Dow Jones Industrials, NYA NYSE Composite and SML Small Caps Daily Charts All Turn Negative on the Year

The Dow Jones Industrials (INDU or DJI), the NYA NYSE Composite, and the SML Small Caps daily charts all turn negative for the year. The SPX, which is the S&P 500 the United States stock market, and the tech-heavy indexes COMPQ and NDX, remain positive on the year.

The NYA also loses the 40-week MA at 15160 a critically-important metric that determines a cyclical bull versus cyclical bear market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Wk MA at 15160 for Cyclical Stock Market Control

The stage is set which will tell you the path forward for the US stock market into the summer and beyond. Three key metrics identify and confirm a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear; the NYA 40-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. All three are in a choppy sloppy pattern this year. 2022 was a cyclical bear market while the last few months are sideways chop. The wink has to be given to the cyclical bear market continuing until proven otherwise.

For the NYA, price remains well off the all-time top above 17K, dropping to a 13K handle and now at 15K-ish with a critical bounce or die decision at the 40-wk MA at 15160 on tap. It is not just a run of the mill test of a moving average. This one has huge ramifications for the stock market going forward.

If NYA fails at 15160 over the coming days and trends lower, there will be Hell to pay. The stock market will go south in a hurry with carnage since the cyclical bear market pattern will be confirmed for nearly 1-1/2 years. If NYA fails, watch the SPX 12-mth MA at 3965-3972 because if this level fails, a stock market Armageddon will begin.

If NYA bounces from here or tests the 15160 support and bounces, that is good news for bulls and means that stocks will likely remain buoyant for a few more weeks. If this occurs, look for the slope of the SPX 150-day MA to create a sustainable and steady uptrend which will confirm that a cyclical bull market is in play.

The utilities are in failure mode which creates a crash profile ahead for the US stock market beginning at anytime forward within the next few weeks. Bulls must push UTIL above 960.60 as fast as possible, otherwise, the situation will become ugly. If utes trend lower and lower, it tells you to get completely out of long positions in the stock market because the crash is coming. Of course, the failure at NYA 15160 will provide a warning signal. Are you ready for fun? The NYA chart will tell you what is coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:20 AM EST: Also watch volatility that has been sleeping. It is waking-up. Bears need VIX above 19.85 which will signal stock market selling ahead. VIX is trading now in real-time at 19.20. Okay, everyone now has their homework and knows what to watch.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 4:47 AM EST: Happy Cinco de Mayo a great time for the cockroach song La Cucaracha and joyous Mariachi band activities. NYA sh*t the bed yesterday losing 15160 now at 15118 which places the US stock market firmly in the cyclical bear camp a major failure. Bulls must push NYA back above 15160 pronto or they face pain and misery ahead.

Note Added Saturday, 5/6/23: The NYA recovers back above 15160. The bounce or die decision is a bounce, at least for now. Friday's full moon helps send stocks higher.

KRE Regional Banks ETF Weekly Chart; H&S; Positive Divergence Setting-Up

The regional banks sh*t the bed yesterday the KRE ETF takes the pipe collapsing -9%. Overpaid bigshot Jamie Dimon at JPM must have been spinning yarns when he said the coast was clear after the Fed handed First Republic's goodies over to him on a silver platter. He is singing for his dinner. Too big to fail (TBTF) banks become bigger. Crony capitalism coughs and wheezes.

The prior KRE charts said to wait for the 38 or lower print and it finally arrives yesterday. The weekly chart indicators were weak and bleak so a 5th grader knew that price would continue falling on a weekly basis and anyone that wanted to play a quick relief bounce would have to be very nimble. Price comes down to a low at 38.11. A little California Hustle and Flow.

Price makes the new low so the indicators can be assessed for possie d. The histogram, stochastics and money flow are positively diverged ready for KRE to recover on the weekly basis (green lines). The oversold RSI and stochastics are also agreeable to upside going forward. Conversely, the RSI makes a new low ditto the MACD line. Their weak and bleak posture want another lower low for price going forward on the weekly basis.

A jog move is likely needed where price will bounce next week and then roll over again for another low say a couple weeks out and at that time the RSI and MACD will likely turn possie d and that will be the bottom on the weekly basis. Thus, if you want to play the regionals long, wait for 1 to 3 weeks for the bottom to form on the weekly and then, even in choppiness, price will float higher for several weeks.

There is more pain for a week or three due to the weak MACD. The H&S (head and shoulders) remains in play with neckline at 56.30 and head at 76.30. The difference is 20 so the downside target for the H&S is 36.30 if the 56.30 fails and it did. The low is 38.11 in the neighborhood so price may want to explore the 36 handle as it bottoms over the next couple weeks. The indicators will ALL form possie d which will tell you that the firm bottom on the weekly basis is in.

Keystone does not hold any positions in the banks right now but will probably look at a long in KRE once it sets up in a couple weeks. The utilities have failed which is a bad omen for the US stock market so of course if the whole ship starts going down the tubes everything will drown. For now, the analysts with calmer heads, such as Larry Summers, are likely correct in saying that the regional banking crisis is manageable and that should be proven when KRE price bottoms in 1 to 3 weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 4:58 AM EST: Happy Cinco de Mayo. KRE sh*t the bed yesterday printing not only the 36-handle but a 35-handle and yes, an intraday 34-handle with the low at 34.52. The regional bank worries escalate. They are looking like dead men walking as the corrupt crony capitalism system pushes money into the handful of major banks which will also make it easier for the Federal Reserve to move into digital money. It is sickening stuff but this is what happens as a multi-decade stretch of greed and crony capitalism implodes. If you bring up the KRE weekly chart, the low comes with the weaker RSI and MACD so the analysis above remains in play with a bottom likely 1 to 3 weeks away. You have to wait until all the indicators are possie d to know that a multi-week rally is on the come. On the KRE daily chart, there is universal positive divergence across all indicators so she will want to bounce and recover in the daily time frame. New news may hit the wires creating more negativity but the panic and fear is likely at its crescendo right now for the regionals. Selling volume hits a record high yesterday for the year so traders and investors are panicking and selling first and asking questions later. There is downside momo on the daily chart so there still may be a day or two of sogginess but she wants to rally in the daily time frame. The KRE 2-hour chart is setting up with possie d but the MACD line wants to see another low in price in the hourly time frame before it will team-up with the daily chart to create a brief, several-day relief rally. KRE will rally and then the daily chart will set up with neggie d to spank it back down and fulfill the desire of the weekly chart that wants to see a lower low in price a week or two out due to the weak and bleak RSI and MACD line. This 34.52-38.00 range is likely a good candidate for a bottom but it will take a couple weeks for it to be set in stone on the weekly basis. The possie d on the weekly chart will tell you when she is ready to rally on the weekly basis (you need to see the RSI and MACD line join the other indicators in positive divergence sloping higher against the falling KRE price).

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 7:00 AM EST: There are many idiots wanting to see the short-sellers prohibited from trading in the banks. It is laughable. Many of these morons will tout capitalism and their request is the opposite of capitalism (they are too stupid to understand what they are saying?). Further, short-selling was prohibited in banks in 2008. Do you remember that or are you stupid? It did not work then and only led to more headaches. There are plenty of ways for professional traders to short banks via derivatives. It is fascinating to watch. The reason the country is collapsing is because of the demise of the crony capitalism system and all the dishonest idiots, to the very end, will want the government and Federal Reserve to always guarantee protection for their money and life, which is the opposite of capitalism. The rot is so deep it is unfixable. More banks should have failed in 2008/2009 but instead the wealthy class was protected by the crony capitalism that is now in its final throes.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/6/23, at 8:00 AM EST: The regionals rally big on Friday so the possie d on the daily chart kicks-in. 

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side yesterday at SPX 4152 that was no big surprise as explained yesterday. Bulls need higher utes and chips to save the day while bears need weaker retail stocks and NYA index to kick-in carnage.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4172 but stay alert for more whipsaw slop since the algo already wants to revert back to the short side again. Utilities, banks, chips and retail stocks are all that matter right now especially the first two.

Bulls win big if UTIL moves above 960.85, XLF above 33.13 and SOX above 3027.

Bears win big with UTIL below 960.60 and RTH below 162.60. Whichever parameters flip tell you the direction of the US stock market going forward.

Keybot the Quant

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Market Complacency Not Yet Resolved

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain skewed to the complacent and fearless side (so a stock market pullback is expected going forward). Traders believe the corrupt Federal Reserve and banksters will always save the elite stockholders with taxpayer money so everyone is anxious to buy any dip. Weak shorts also are quick to jump ship adding short-covering fuel for quick upside spurts.

The three green circles show the last three legitimate bottoms for the stock market as traders threw out the baby and the bathwater and swore they would never own a stock again. What does this (contrarian) signal tell you? Yes, you do not want to buy the broad market long until panic and fear shows up above CPC 1.20.

The bottom a couple days ago was cheesy with the CPC rolling over again. Traders and investors are fearless and trained that the stock market will always be saved so buy, buy, buy. The blind long players need taught a lesson and that occurs when the CPC spikes wildly higher as stocks drop. Perhaps the Wednesday Fed announcement will be the catalyst when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells global traders how to trade.

Watch utilities closely. UTIL 960-962 is a critical line in the sand for the US stock market. A rally will occur if UTIL pops above 962 and trends higher. However, if UTIL remains below 960 and trends lower, there will be Hell to pay going forward which is in sync with the CPC chart above. Check UTIL or DJU at the opening bell.

New money comes into the stock market for a new month which may buoy stocks. The stock market also typically rallies the 2 days preceding the Fed meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday). The First Republic bank failure and sweet deal for corrupt JPM is in play today. Crony capitalism run amuck. The fun continues. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.