Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant turns bullish at SPX 4017 yesterday but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the short side. The choppy slop continues. UTIL tried to regain 939 yesterday but failed signaling ugliness for the stock market going forward. Watch utes, banks, copper and volatility.
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Sunday, February 26, 2023
SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; SPX Is Below 12-Mth MA at 4007-4010 Verifying Ongoing 1-Year Cyclical Bear Market but Drama Continues
It is time to separate the men from the boys. The SPX loses the 12-month MA at 4007-4010 maintaining the ongoing one-year cyclical bear market. The 10-mth MA is watched by Wall Street old-timer's and is programmed into algorithms and it is at 3941-3943.
Price came down to.... wait for it...... wait a bit longer for it ......... 3943 taking the first stab at this critical support level. It is for all the marbles. Since UTIL (DJU) 939 is in failure mode right now, the expectation would be for the bear outcome going forward and the SPX falling through 3941-3943 ushering-in severe stock market negativity.
However, it is all talk until, or unless, the 10-mth MA at 3941-3943 holds. If you are bullish on stocks and holding a lot of long positions, you best get on your knees, clasp your palms, and start praying that 3941-3943 holds, otherwise, you will meet The Maker.
The 50-wk MA is 4011. The 12-mth MA is 4007-4010. The 50-day MA is 3980. The SPX is at 3970. The 10-mth MA is 3941-3943. The 200-day MA is 3940. The 20-wk is 3937.
Price below the 50-week, 12-month and 50-day is a big deal and extremely negative. Look at that tight convergence and confluence below price serving as the last-ditch support at 3937-3943 which encompasses the 10-mth, 200-day and 20-week moving averages. That is high drama.
Watch the utilities to see if they remain in failure mode with UTIL below 939. If so, there will be Hell to pay with stocks. If the SPX loses 3937-3943, Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight. Turn out the lights, the Party is Over.
Bulls must claw back some strength to stop the negativity explained above and will bide some time if they can push SPX above the 50-day MA at 3980. Then, the bulls must push UTIL above 939, otherwise, nothing matters, since stocks are going to collapse if utes remain in failure mode.
It will be an interesting week ahead. The utility failure is bigtime. Maybe a Black Monday on tap? Nah, that can't happen, can it? Each side knows what they have to do and what is at stake. They prepare for battle tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
US Recession Worries Remain; Young Folks Are Wise to Prepare for the Worst
The talk of US recession has subsided compared to the end of last year when most analysts proclaimed that the end was nigh. There are indicators pointing towards recession, however, and the happy data over the last month may be short-lived.
The Jobless Claims data becomes more important each week and last Thursday is 192K Claims once again pulling the 4-week MA higher (towards recession) so each data point now becomes critical.
Also, the Philly Fed Mfg Index is hinting strongly that the recession is at hand.
Also, the US housing market has been in a recession since Christmas now 2 months along.
Also, the 2-10 spread is hooking higher which ushers-in the US recessions.
But all that mumbo-jumbo, charting and technical analysis is not the reason for this message.
All of you young folks under 30 or 35 years old do not understand recession hardship. The Federal Reserve has been goosing the US stock market to protect the wealthy class since March 2009. Thus, during the housing bubble and financial market collapse of 2008-2009, many of you may have been teenagers, or younger, or some also older in your early 20's, but few of these young minds were fixated on financial markets back then.
So the charmed years continue from 2009 to present where stocks go up forever, jobs are plentiful forever, etc..., and most young folks believe this is a given and the way the economy works. You are going to get your head handed to you on a platter over the next couple years.
Now is the time to prepare for a recession. If young, you must realize that those first years of your life are likely going to be your easiest and life will become a lot harder going forward. Many of you will lose your jobs. Oh, but you immediately exclaim that the company cannot survive without you. You say that jobs are plentiful and you will be hired elsewhere even if canned. What a naïve mind. Don't be stupid.
Keystone had the rose-colored glasses on when he graduated at the top of his class decades ago and was slated to quickly move up into upper management of Dravo Corporation a huge international company. It is an interesting story what followed and is provided to help all of you young folks understand what you are going to experience going forward.
Get yourself prepared for the coming recession. It is best to cut corners now. For example, maybe it is a good idea to get rid of the monthly subscription fees for channels and shows that you never watch anymore; did you ever need to watch them in the first place? Save your money. Sit down and figure out what you will do when you lose your job, or your spouse or partner loses theirs, or if both of you lose your jobs. Go through the math and scenarios so you are prepared when your boss calls you in on the carpet and tells you to get out within 15 minutes.
Keystone's recession article maintains popularity during the last few years. The COVID-19 pandemic was a curve ball the last three years. The COVID-19 recession was a quickie and painless since the US government and Fed provided endless quantities of money (creating deeper future debt). The real recession deal is coming and it will not be blue skies and lollipops.
Recessions are expected every 6 or 8 years but the easy money has negated the business cycle and given young folks false expectations for the economy, markets and stocks. Thus, if you are under 30 or 40 years old, take a read and prepare yourself for the coming storm;
UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Chart; Tight Bands Making Big Decision
The tight bands (pink arrows) drama continues for the 2-year Treasury note yield. This has been of interest since the standard deviation bands came in tight, and then in the last post as the sideways tunnel forms, and now as the bands begin flaring out declaring up as the direction ahead for yield but not so fast.
The same conflicting drama is ongoing. The tight bands want to squeeze-out a huge move but the formation does not predict direction. Yield is on a 5-week uptrend and the no-brainer is thinking that the tight band squeeze will shoot yield quickly towards 5%. This would be true if the chart indicators were all long and strong with more fuel in their tanks but they are not.
The red lines show that all the indicators are weak and bleak, out of gas, and having no fuel to move yields higher. The pop higher in the 2-year yield was on Friday's inflation data but this moment of glory may be short-lived.
Adding more drama is the RSI and stochastics that have near-term momentum that may help yields remain buoyant for a few days. It is important to check the chart tomorrow morning once the week begins since the new positions of the indicators for the new week of trading ahead will tell a lot.
If we take the tight bands out of the picture and pretend the standard deviation bands were like they were in August, drifting in a little but then out again, no biggie, the call would be for the yield to top out here and begin selling off for a multi-week down move targeting the middle band now at 4.39%.
The hotter inflation data is new info that chart will price in further so again, the posture of the chart tomorrow morning will tell a lot about the path ahead. Do not be surprised if a big reversal happens and yield falls like a stone.
You do not have to wait long. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. If yield continues the ride higher on the upper band it will launch towards 5%. Since the chart is weak, however, the expectation is for yield to chop and top-out now and drop going forward for a few weeks targeting 4.39%.
Perhaps this occurs if the stock market collapses with a big selloff (which may occur since UTIL under 939 placing the stock market in a crash profile currently) and some of that money leaving stocks will find its way into Treasuries sending yields lower. Keystone looks around and no one is sitting on his side of the boat. Everyone is partying and having a good time on the higher yields forever forward side of the boat.
Again, we will not have to wait long. The tight bands will make the final decision this week and if yield is to reverse hard and get squeezed lower, it has to happen now, otherwise, up in yields is the path ahead with 5% likely coming faster than anyone expects (tight bands create powerful moves). Comically, higher yields would spook the stock market as well. Also, utilities do not like higher yields since they have to fund their multi-billion projects over many years.
You will have to take a look at the chart tomorrow morning and see what the new clues are about the direction ahead. Prepare for drama. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Saturday, February 25, 2023
UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Dictate Fate of US Stock Market Going Forward
The utilities are deciding the fate of the US stock market currently. It is historic price action. The closing price for the utilities 15 weeks ago determine if utes are in a weekly uptrend or downtrend and this, along with the 50-wk MA, forecast the strength of the stock market ahead.
UTIL is at 928 basically under the 50-week MA at 977.40 since late September which portends a weak stock market. UTIL fell below the 927 on Friday which is a new weekly downtrend and horrible news for the stock market but by the closing bell, the bulls dragged UTIL back above 927 (orange circle and line).
Now it is time to separate the men from the boys. The stock market has to make a big decision over the coming days and the downside would likely be catastrophically ugly. With the loss of UTIL 939 (blue circle), the stock market is currently in a crash profile.
When the opening bell rings on Monday morning at 9:30 AM EST, UTIL begins at 928 well below the 939 needed to prevent utes from falling into a weekly downtrend. Carnage in the stock market is likely if UTIL cannot regain 939 in quick order after the opening bell.
When the 50-week MA is below the 15-week lookback trend, that level is called the trap-door where bad things happen to stocks due to the double-whammy utility failure. In this example, the 50-wk MA at 977 is in failure mode for many weeks so the 939 level can be viewed as the trap-door for the stock market for the week ahead, and price has already fallen through. The bulls must drag price above 939 and close that trap-door as fast as possible, otherwise, there will be Hell to pay.
The 939 bull/bear line in the sand remains in play all week long but for the week of 3/6/23, the 939 becomes meaningless and is replaced with 972 (purple circle). Wow. That is up at the 50-wk MA at 977 so you can see that big trouble will occur in the stock market unless UTIL does not get above 939 next week and then, wait for it, get above 972 for the week after. Thus, by Friday, 3/3/23, at 4:00 PM EST, UTIL is going to need to be at 972 (now at 928). That's a tall order but Anything Could Happen as Ellie sings.
Okay is all that clear as mud? Carlos fell asleep. Jane is drawing New Age symbols in a notebook. Here is it very simply. If UTIL remains below 939, stocks are going to nosedive and there will be blood flowing on Wall Street resulting in carnage ahead. If UTIL moves above 939 next week, the worst is off the table for a little while but bulls must continue to push higher and send price to 972 by the closing bell on Friday. If so, it forecasts a big rally ahead for the stock market. If UTIL fails to achieve 972 by the end of the week on 3/3/23, that forecasts serious bad trouble for the US stock market going forward.
Thus, focus on UTIL 939 out of the gate Monday with price beginning at 928. If the trap-door remains open and UTIL has fallen through 939, don't say you were not warned because if long, you will lose your shirt and of course a lot of money. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Complacency Versus Panic and Fear
The vulnerable human condition is always on display in the stock market. The constant battle of fear and panic versus complacency and fearlessness. The put/call ratios measure these human emotions and as expected the opposite outcome occurs.
Keystone posted the CPC and CPCE put/call ratio charts a week or two ago and told you not to buy long until you see panic and fear. Did you listen or were you a naughty boy or girl? Did the greed play on your mind and the fear of missing out on an entry point for a big rally ahead? Did you hit the buy button only to have your head handed to you on a platter? Yes, you did, and you deserved it. You saw that traders were off the charts complacent so why were you stupid and buying stocks on the long side?
In December, Timmy Trader could no longer handle the pressure from client phone calls panicking at the drop in stocks and wondering what to do. He was losing money hand over fist so he ran to the window and to the horror of everyone on the floor, jumped out. Fortunately, he was on the ground floor.
The CPC is at 1.11 finally moving higher in recent days and the long one-month of complacency and fearlessness about stocks never selling off again may be abating. A sure sign of more downside and a top is when television pundits exclaim that everyone is too bearish; these folks are always wrong and great fades (do the opposite of what they suggest and you will make more money).
The folks waxing negativity about stocks are buying stocks. They are not buying puts for protection instead buying calls out the wazoo greedily expecting a big upside move in the stock market and some more quick money. The boat is/was fully-loaded to the bull side as the low put/calls verify everyone partying and having fun, buying stocks by throwing darts at the stock pages on a dartboard, life is easy with stocks going up forever. You know what happens when everyone is bullish and complacent.
Stocks top out on Groundhog Day, 2/2/23, with the rodent predicting 6 more weeks of selling; he is correct so far. Stocks retreat due to the complacency but as the CPC shows, a lot more negativity is needed to create panic and fear and an attractive buying opportunity. If short, the charts tell you to stick it out a few more days since more negativity is likely. If long, you will likely be hammered until the panic and fear can arrive and place a bottom in the stock market.
There should be lots of excitement in the week ahead. The CPCE put/call ratio is the same dealio as the CPC above. You do not want to buy until you see people running out of the stock exchange with their hair on fire swearing to never own a stock again. Step up and gladly take their shares as you buy and walk towards the burning building while they run away in panic. When the markets are complacent, you gladly sell and handover your shares to the sucka's begging to buy stocks that are caught up in the fearless frenzy and then you go short.
As a side note, UTIL (Dow Jones Utilities; DJU) lost the 927 level last week a critical failure placing the stock market into a crash profile. The 927 is meaningless in the week ahead replaced with 939. If UTIL cannot regain 939, starting the week at 928, it is lights out going forward for US stocks. You will experience carnage if long. If UTIL regains 939, the long stockholders will receive a slight reprieve. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Drama Continues with Tight Bands and Yield About to Squeeze-Out Huge Move
The drama continues with the 2-year Treasury note yield weekly chart and the tight standard deviation bands turning into a tunnel of love highlighted with the previous chart. The standard deviation bands are squeezed-in tight (purple arrows) which means a huge move is going to occur. Tight bands, however, do not predict direction. This creates the drama playing out in real-time.
The 2-year yield is rallying for 5 weeks moving higher and higher so is the move out of the tight bands going to be an explosive move higher from here? The jury is out since the moves out of the tight band can fake you out sometimes juking when you thought they were going to jive.
Yield has tagged the upper band at 4.69% and also hit 4.71% which is a matching high to the November 4.72% (close enough for government work). Since the yield is at a matching high, the chart indicators can be assessed and the dark maroon lines show negative divergence clearly in play. Yield came up for the matching high but there is no juice in the tank for higher yields, in fact, the indicators hint at the yield topping out now or over the next week or two and then dropping.
This is a wild set-up along with the tight bands because it hints that this up move in yield is a fake-out and we may be on the cusp of a pivot down in yields that is going to slap everyone in the face.
The stochastics have juice but are overbot while the other indicators are more flattish. Again, the expectation would be for yields to top-out going forward and then dropping. Yield is also extended above the moving average ribbon (yield above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 200) requiring a mean reversion lower.
If yield was breaking out higher now as per the tight bands, you would expect the bands to already begin flaring outwards but instead, the tunnel of love sideways remains tight.
Watch this chart closely since it is going to tell you a lot about the markets and economy going forward. It should tip its hand any day forward. It will be wild if yield begins collapsing to the downside. This scenario may occur if stocks sell off in force, people start to panic, and then some of that cash goes into the perceived safety of Treasuries driving up bond and note prices pushing the yields lower.
What do you think is going to happen? Everyone on Wall Street says no recession in sight and yields will go up and up and up. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 2/23/23, at 8:38 AM EST: After the GDP number, the 2-year yield sits at 4.71%. A couple hours ago it was 4.68% and minutes after the data, yield popped to near 4.73% but now sits at 4.71%. The 2-10 spread is 76 bips. The drama continues. The tension mounts.
Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish
Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short yesterday at SPX 4024. Watch the banks, volatility and the key bull/bear line in the sand at SPX 4010-4013.
Sunday, February 19, 2023
SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross; 1-Year Cyclical Bear Market Challenged as Bulls Try to Push Higher
If you were stranded on a desert island, and could only take one indicator along to tell you if the stock market was bullish or bearish, it would be the SPX 12-month MA now at 4016.
The S&P 500 failed through the 12-mth MA a year ago signaling the ongoing cyclical bear market but that multi-month downtrend is now called into question. The chart shows happy bears at the Thanksgiving table in November with price below the 12-mth MA signaling full steam ahead for the cyclical bear market.
During December, however, cracks form in the bear thesis. Price tags the 12-mth MA threatening to move above only to receive a spankdown with the bears proclaiming that they continue to run the show. The new year begins with bears growling but that changes quickly as the uber negative sentiment opens the door to a big rally higher.
The bulls push the SPX above the 12-mth MA in January to end the month at 4077 now signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. Since the cyclical bear market has been in place for about a year, it is not wise to simply run with the latest flavor and say the bear market is over. There needs to be follow-through where the bulls need to prove that they got game.
February begins and price remains above the 12-mth MA for the entire month so far so the bulls have their chests puffed-out. The candlestick is in progress, however, and the month still has 6 trading days remaining. EOM is 2/28/23 on the following Tuesday. A lot can happen to a chart in 6 days so the jury remains out on the cyclical bull versus bear call.
The cyclical bear market call remains in place for now but in 6 trading days if price remains above the 12-mth MA, a new cyclical bull market will have to be ordained (it will be 2 solid months of the bullish signal).
The SPX dropped to 4037 last week only 21 points from the critical 12-mth MA at 4016. That is in the neighborhood so it is very likely that price will settle the score and come down to tap 4016 where the important bounce or die decision, that will probably impact the US stock market for the remainder of the year, will occur.
In a couple weeks, if the SPX is above 4016, it is blue skies and rainbows for the bulls, Mr Blue Sky, with stocks floating higher going forward with a new cyclical bull market in play. If the SPX is below 4016 as March begins, it opens the door to major trouble as the year progresses and the cyclical bear market prevails. If the SPX drops below 3953 over the next couple weeks, it is lights out, sayonara, the stock market will collapse, people will become Paranoid.
As the cyclical bear market prevailed in 2022, price pulls the shorter-term moving averages lower faster than longer-term moving averages. Thus, price drops and the 10-mth MA follows and then the 12-mth MA follows the 10 lower. In November, you see price closing the month above the 10-mth MA a critical signal hinting that bottoming-behavior is likely on the come.
When the SPX places a major top, like a year ago, price falls though the 10 MA first then the 12 MA ushers-in Armageddon. The 10-mth MA at 3953 currently remains key. If 3953 is lost, as mentioned above, the US stock market is in serious trouble and you are likely to witness a very special negative event about to occur.
The stage is set. SPX 4016 decides the fate of the US stock market going forward. If the bears start growling, and take out 3953, they will be ripping off limbs. The trading week begins on Tuesday with SPX starting at 4079. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 10:31 AM EST: The SPX 50-week MA is at 4016 like the 12-mth MA. Wow. Two powerhouse support levels. No doubt they will act as a back test support level. The 4016 is the stock market's Gettysburg. This is where the battle between the north and south, er, bulls and bears, will be fought winner take all. Keybot the Quant remains long but has been itching to flip short for the last week.
Note Added Ash Wednesday Morning, 2/22/23: Wall Street analysts, economists and central bank officials are singing in unison that a recession is not in the cards going forward. The PMI Services Index pops above 50 so the services sector is being waved as the banner of great times ahead. US Existing Home Sales are at the lowest level in over 12 years but hey, look at those services. Stocks collapse yesterday with the major indexes losing from -2% to -3%. The SPX falls through the 12-mth MA at 4010-4013 so all Hell broke loose. Watch the SPX 4010-4013 bull/bear line in the sand since it tells you the story going forward. Price is at 3997 before the Wednesday session begins. The SPX 10-mth MA is at 3945. If 3945 fails, it will be a bloodbath. Watch the banks. Also, UTIL 927 this week; if it is lost, stocks will plummet. If UTIL is below 939 when this week ends, stocks will plummet next week. Lots of moving parts currently.
Saturday, February 18, 2023
UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart
The stage is set for the final act. The utes over the next couple weeks or so will decide the fate of the US stock market ahead. The 50-wk MA and the closing price on a weekly basis 15 weeks ago are what matter.
The 50-wk MA is at 978.40 and price is at 953.61 clearly below which is a bearish signal for the stock market. It would be bullish joy for the stock market if UTIL rallies and overtakes 978.
The closing price 15 weeks ago, which determines the weekly trend of the utilities, is at 927.43 a key number for the holiday-shortened trading week ahead (red circle). Disaster will occur for the stock market if 927 is lost in the days ahead. The US stock market would go into a crash profile where a serious negative event will begin either in unison with the ute failure or within a few weeks time.
If UTIL does not take out 927, the 939.33 level is key (purple circle) for the week of 2/27/23 and 927.43 becomes meaningless. Same dealio. If 939 fails during the week of 2/27/23, there will be Hell to pay going forward.
If UTIL does not take out the 939.33 number, the next 15-week lookback number is up to 972.06 (blue circle) and the 939.33 becomes meaningless. This is at the 50-wk MA for all the marbles. Not only that, look at how price hugs the 50-wk MA for many weeks which provides 15-wk lookback comparison numbers for March and April.
It is easy to develop scenarios and it is likely that UTIL will tip its hand over the next couple weeks and show where the stock market is headed. What's all this mumbo-jumbo this guy is talking about? I think he is making it up. Is he? I don't know, it sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
UTIL begins 2/21/23 (US markets are closed on Monday, 2/20/23 on Presidents' Day) at 954. If UTIL rallies and takes out the 50-wk MA at 978-979 anytime going forward, it is blue skies and rainbows ahead for the bulls. Stocks will rally going forward and if UTIL remains above the 50-wk MA, a serious negative downturn for the stock market this year would be taken off the table.
For the week of 2/21/23, if UTIL drops below 927, the US stock market will fall apart and potentially crash going forward. If UTIL does not drop but perhaps staggers sideways, watch the action at 4 PM EST on Friday as the week ends since UTIL must be above the 939.33 that will go into effect for the week of 2/27/23. If next week ends with UTIL remaining above 939, the bulls will be looking pretty good and then continuing to hope that UTIL continues higher to overtake the 50-wk MA.
If, however, on 2/24/23, UTIL ends the week below 939.33, that means the utes are going to create negativity in the US stock market come Monday morning, 2/27/23. You get the idea of what is going on. This activity explained above will tell you if the stock market is going to have a serious crash or not this year.
If UTIL loses 927 in the days ahead, and you have stayed long the stock market through thick or thin, you will be bludgeoned. If UTIL rallies above 978-979 at anytime going forward, the stock market bulls will have a big party. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Sunday, 2/19/23: UTIL finishes the week at 954. Bull victory is up at the 50-wk MA at 978-979. Bear victory is at 927 for the week ahead or 939 for the following week. Who will win? Sideways chop suey through the 940-977 range is non-committal. UTIL will choose the winner in the days ahead; there will be a commitment one way or the other and it will tell a lot about the stock market going forward.
Note Added Ash Wednesday Morning, 2/22/23: UTIL is at 939; isn't that something? Watch to see if UTIL loses 427 this week and if it ends the week above or below 939 since it tells you a lot about the US stock market.
The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator in NEUTRAL Territory as Inflationists and Deflationists Battle
by K E Stone (Keystone)
Inflation is a hot topic these days since everyone feels the bite of higher prices. Keystone purchases a dozen eggs the other day and signed-up for the installment plan. He wanted to cook the most expensive food item for Valentine's Day dinner so instead of T-bone steaks he made scrambled eggs.
Inflationists and deflationists battle each day spewing talking points and cherry-picking data to try and bolster their narratives. Five months have passed since the last post of Keystone's inflation-deflation indicator and chart so an update is in order. You can clearly see in the chart above why analysts are having a hard time at assessing inflation.
The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator is exactly in the middle of the NEUTRAL territory also not knowing which way to turn next.
The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator catapults higher to the peaks in inflationary activity in May and June 2022 but reverses course dropping towards disinflation for the last 8 and 9 months. The initial drop towards disinflation in January results in a bounce so the inflation or disinflation path ahead remains murky.
The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator sits at 2.75 at Neutral unwilling to commit to a inflationary or disinflationary environment. The deflationary abyss from 2015 to 2021 is over.
President Biden and Congress pass massive COVID-19 spending bills in 2021 throwing money out to Americans like a fireman tossing candy to children during a parade. Trump was also greasing the skids in 2020.
At the same time, in 2020 and 2021 the Federal Reserve turned up the money-printing dial from from heinous to disgraceful. The money-printing was so obscene it would make Caligula blush. The Fed turns the money-printing dial to 11 a la Spinal Tap. Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen toss money to Americans from a helicopter piloted by former Fed Chairman Bernanke.
Worse, creating the trifecta of the inflationary backdrop, is Biden's stupid misguided climate change agenda hacking the vital oil, gas and coal industries to death while promoting windmills, solar cells and glorified golf carts (EV's) that do not work in natural disasters and cause the same if not more ecological waste (mining and disposal) than regular gas-powered cars.
The factors above are the inflation fuel and the pent-up demand for goods and services after the lows of the pandemic lights the fuse.
The chart above reflects goods inflation rather than services inflation. For decades this did not matter since both moved in unison. In recent years, however, due to obscene central banker money printing that has destroyed price discovery, and the disruptions of supply lines due to the pandemic, the goods and services inflations take separate paths forward. They will converge again but this behavior adds another level of complexity to the inflation conundrum.
The oil, coal and natural gas industries are the energy backbone of the United States. It takes a high degree of stupid to purposely crash these industries, adding to the already out of control inflation due to the Biden/Congress spending spree (fiscal stimulus) and the Fed's money-printing (monetary stimulus), when the so-called green energies are not ready for primetime. At the same time, Russia's dirtbag dictator Putin wages war against Ukraine sending energy prices to the moon exacerbating worldwide inflation.
The 10-year Treasury note 'price' is used for the denominator (bottom number) of The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator. The 10-year Treasury price is 97.41 with a yield at 3.81%.
Commodities are in the numerator (top number). The CRB Commodity Index is at 267.57. Calculating Keystone's Inflation-Deflation Indicator;
The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator
CRB/10-Year Price = 267.57/97.41 = 2.75
Above 4.20 = Hyperinflation
Between 3.1 and 4.2 = Inflation
Between 2.5 and 3.1 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists Battle
Between 2.1 and 2.5 = Disinflation
Below 2.1 = Deflation
Granted, the calculation above is focused on goods inflation rather than services inflation. For many decades, you could track commodities, with the CRB, or GTX, and the goods inflation and deflation dictated the overall economy's direction. As the US politicians screwed America over the last five decades, sending jobs overseas and destroying the middle class so stock prices could move higher on the slave labor, the goods production went to foreign nations while the US focused more on services as the major part of the economy.
The debate between inflationists and deflationists over the last few years has been the discussion of goods versus services inflation. The pundits looking for inflation said goods would inflate and catch-up to the rising services sector while the talking heads preaching deflation said the services inflation would drop to join the goods disinflation and deflation as the economy slumps. All bets were off and both sides ended up being correct as the COVID-19 pandemic hit knocking the world on its arse.
The deflationists were correct in 2019 and 2020. Services inflation drops to become more compatible with the goods deflation. Of course, the China Virus pandemic wiped out the airlines, hotels, travel, restaurants and hospitality and leisure industries. Services are knee-capped falling to the ground joining the goods deflation. Men turned into bush people letting their hair grow wildly outward as they avoided the barber for fear of catching covid.
Then the central banker cavalry arrives March 2020 promising to print money forever. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen (former Fed chairs) were already in the basement of the Eccles Building running the printing presses like mad. Helicopter Ben loaded-up his chopper with freshly printed Benjamin's dropping the money from the sky into the investment banker's hands on Wall Street.
President Biden provides way too much stimulus creating a lazy workforce that would rather sit home than work. The staffing shortages are a headache for employers that want to get back to normal but cannot since there are not enough workers to fill positions. Wages rise sending inflation higher. These behaviors, and the obscene amounts of Congressional (fiscal) and Federal Reserve (monetary) stimulus, send inflation to the moon.
People are using the easy money to scoop-up stocks, bonds, real estate, paintings, collectables, antique cars, art and anything else that has a heartbeat and is worth five bucks. The easy money from the Fed since March 2009 encourages reckless spending and then when rates pop, and folks have little saved, and then lose their jobs in a recession, it is light's out.
When the Fed and Congress tag-teamed in March and April 2020 with trillions in stimulus, billions went into the US stock market pumping it to record highs. A few hundred thousand workers left the workforce either retiring or caring for loved ones after the pandemic, creating a massive labor shortage as the pent-up demand hit in 2021 and 2022.
Rising wages create inflation. The lack of inflation and ongoing persistent deflation for many years was due to the stagnant wage growth. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation which had not occurred for many years until 2021 and 2022.
Interestingly, as economic activity slows in the US, and some companies begin layoffs in 2022, the wages are starting to stagnate again, helping create the current top in inflation since June 2022.
The inflation over the last year is mainly due to energy, food and rent/utility costs. People notice higher gasoline and food prices more than other price changes. The inflation is moderating since May/June as oil and commodity prices come back down to earth. If Americans are this worked-up about inflation at such an early stage of the inflation game, good luck. You ain't seen nuttin' yet.
Inflation will eventually run far higher in the years forward and bring on hyperinflation.
Just think, in a few years, the chart above will be way up there in the hyperinflation zone. That is when the Dow will be over 50K, the SPX will be 10K or more, a gallon of gasoline will be $10 and more, a loaf of bread will be $10. The stock market will be hugely higher, however, the US dollar will be toilet paper. That will be a whole new set of challenges when the velocity of money (money on reserve at the banks that suddenly floods into circulation) kicks in.
Inflation in 2022 matched the 2011 highs. Back then, traders were convinced that rates would continue higher but instead the peak was in. Time will tell if the inflation peak in May/June 2022 will hold (for a few months), or not.
The answer to the inflation-deflation debate is both sides are right and both are wrong since the indicator sits at neutral. The path to disinflation is probably more likely as the economy sours, people lose jobs and the stock market falters. The people propping up the economy right now are the upper middle class and wealthy but their spending habits will likely decrease going forward. It has a 1970's redux feel to it. The next few months are key since the chart above will tip its hand.
Friday, February 17, 2023
BDI Baltic Dry Index Weekly Chart Teasing All-Time Record Lows in Shipping Rates
The Baltic Dry Index drops like a rock in the pond out back. The Baltic is the freight index for shipping dry goods such as coal, iron ore, grains, steel, etc... When a world economy is booming, the ships are busy 24/7 hauling dry goods around the world and shipping rates climb higher if you want to play the game.
Then weak times hit, such as a pandemic, or a recession, or both, and wars, and rumors of wars, and the freight index is in collapse. Prices are dropping as ships look for cargo. The planet expects China's economy to pick-up like gangbusters and drive the Baltic Index higher again but Dictator Xi stares back at the world opining, "Who, me?"
The current lows in the Baltic, and in 2020, 2016 and 2015 are the all-time record lows in the freight index. Interestingly, the lows in the Baltic typically correspond to lows in the stock market but this typically occurs with a plus and minus of a few weeks on each side.
Note the V-shaped bottoms where prices hit the low then explode higher as demand picks up and economic conditions improve. 2015, however, stuttered sideways for a while.
Keystone calls the May 2015 top in the US stock market the last legitimate top in the US stock market. Everything that came after is due to Federal Reserve and other central banker monetary stimulus, and domestic US fiscal stimulus, and is generally, phony-baloney artificial pumping of asset prices. There is likely a date with SPX 2200-ish over the next year or two to pay respect to this prior May 2015 top. In 2015, the stock market stuttered sideways for a few months as the Baltic Dry Index moved sideways.
The collapsing Baltic Dry Index reflects a lackluster global economy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Sunday, 2/19/23: The BDI drops to 538 to end last week. Hey pal, can I haul some cargo for you? I'll give you a good deal. Keystone does not get invited to any parties because he talks about the Baltic Dry Index.
Note Added Ash Wednesday Morning, 2/22/23: The BDI drops to 530 and is now trying to recover at 594. Get your cargo ships here, folks, step right up, cargo ships, get your cargo ships here folks, on sale today, step right up.......
Unemployment Claims Weekly Chart Hinting at Recession Ahead
The Wall Street commentaries are a continuing battle between the recession and non-recession (no recession, a soft recession, or a recession much further out in 2024) camps. It is usually an easier call since the claims will pop above the 4-wk MA and then head off to the races higher as the US economy sinks into the recession ooze.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is emboldened to keep hiking rates because he believes the jobs arena is strong (claims remain low). Recent data encourages his viewpoint, however, we are on the cusp of another stab at the recession. You will have to watch claims each week and see if the claims start jutting higher which ushers-in the recession. Flat or down claims will keep the recession with Godot (it will not yet arrive) since the number may slip back below the 4-wk MA. Time will tell.
As per the Department of Labor, Claims come in at 194K yesterday with the 4-wk MA trendline at 190K.
The chart clearly shows the back and forth moves across the 4-wk MA which correspond to the pundits arguing if a recession is coming, or not. It is like getting slapped in the face with the left hand, then right, then left, then right, mother, daughter, mother, daughter, mother, daughter....
For the claims chart, there was no sign of a recession as 2022 began. That was the top in the US stock market then whammo. Claims jump higher and the economy looks shaky but by summertime all was fine especially with the lovely ladies frolicking on the beach in their colorful bikinis. But, oh no, trouble again as Halloween approached. Pundits proclaim that the recession is coming. Nope, never mind, it is another fake-out move. Nothing to see here, move along.
Over the last couple months, the non-recession camp is walking around with their chests puffed-out proclaiming there is no recession in sight and Pope Powell is wise to keep etching more rate hikes into the tablets brought down from On High. Not so fast, recession non-believers.
The right-hand side of the chart shows trouble again. Will it be another fake-out move? Or is a recession finally on the come? Watch it every Thursday morning going forward so you will know.
The Philly Fed is indicating a recession likely and Keystone's Housing Market Indicator is signaling a housing recession for the last 2 months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 2/23/23, at 9:00 AM EST: Claims come in at 192K this week a touch above the 4-wk MA at 190K so the moving average will be pulled a touch higher. Will next week's Claims exceed 200K or will the job market resiliency continue and Claims fall way below 190K?
Philadelphia Fed Index Monthly Chart Hinting at Recession Ahead
The Philadelphia Fed Index signals a recession ahead. The Philly Fed Index drops to -24.3 for February way below the -8.9 for January. Here is a link to the Philly Fed Survey. Chairman Powell clutches his chest and falls back into the leather chair. A few recent data points have pointed to a stronger economy and potential growth so the Federal Reserve has been comfortable saying there is more upside in rates going forward. A -24.3 Philly Fed does not fit this happy narrative.
Keystone likes to use a 4-month MA to note the progress of the Philly Fed. The Philly Fed number fell below its 4-month moving average in September. The first negative reading for the Philly Fed Index was -2.8 in June. August showed signs of life again with a positive +6.3 but the Philly Fed is negative ever since with the very low -24.3 reported yesterday.
The Philly Fed is below its 4-month MA since last September, a half-year now, with the exception of last month. January was -8.9 that moved slightly above the 4-mth MA at -11.3 but this was short-lived since the -24.3 is clearly back below the 4-mth MA now at -15.6. The failure of the Philly Fed below its 4-mth MA indicates recession ahead.
Further, the red boxes show that the Philly Fed Index is a great predictor of recessions. The -24.3 reading now takes the index into the red box territory. Note that the low spikes in the index that did not result in recession (blue lines) are all taken out by the current numbers further bolstering the recession case.
The strong jobs picture that emboldens the Fed for more rate hikes may simply be people jumping jobs left and right because Harry pays 25 cents more an hour than Belinda. Then they quit that job the next day to work for Hiroko because she pays 50 cents more per hour than Harry.
Much is said about the JOLTS data and the great number of job openings. Not so fast. Of the 10 or 11 million job openings, remember that a good 5 million plus were sitting there pre-pandemic. Businesses play games to skirt equal-opportunity laws (EOE) so a lot of ads are bogus. Also, companies run ads only looking for the combination Albert Einstein, marathon runner, skydiver, charity worker on weekends, and skilled-orator employee that works for peanuts. Companies nowadays are likely running many employment ads and leaving them in place since they know that one-half the people they hire today will be gone in a month.
Thus, the 10 or 11 million JOLTS job openings are really 5 or 6 million off the get-go. Take away another 2 million due to people with long-covid or caring for loved-ones that may have extended and ongoing health problems after the brutal 3-year pandemic. Some folks, like healthcare workers, are burned-out from the last 3 years and simply need time off to recover. Thus, the JOLTS are down to maybe 2 to 4 million job openings.
Then takeaway ads that companies likely leave up indefinitely due to the way the economy is post-pandemic compared to pre-pandemic so that is another 1 or 2 million job openings in the data. Also, many of the jobs are the low-paying low-skilled jobs such as burger-flipper's, bedpan-cleaners, table-waiters, sheet-turners, etc... (great respect for the folks that do these jobs), so job openings do not mean more high-paying jobs. When you consider the JOLTS number in the context presented here, the 10 or 11 million job openings, after a once-in-a-century pandemic, does not sound like anything special, does it?
The Philly Fed Index is in the recession camp as the Federal Reserve is convinced that continued rate hikes should occur going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Ash Wednesday Morning, 2/22/23: Wall Street analysts, economists and central bank officials are singing in unison that a recession is not in the cards going forward. The PMI Services Index pops above 50 so the services sector is being waved as the banner of great times ahead. US Existing Home Sales are at the lowest level in over 12 years but hey, look at those services.
Thursday, February 16, 2023
SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Back Test Should Reveal Direction Ahead for Stock Market
The Keystone Speculator's SPX 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Indicator is a great short-term (ST) tool to gauge stock market direction. Price is at 4100 and the SPX 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 4046 so the bulls remain in charge in the ST.
Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, it is logical that the S&P 500 should drop for a back test of this critical support at 4046. That is about 50 points below current levels on Thursday morning.
Note that the SPX has not tapped the 200 EMA for the last month so price needs to get down there and give it a smooch. You know the drill. When/if this happens, the SPX will make a critical bounce or die decision that will tell you the path forward for stocks. So, for now, the expectation is for more sogginess until the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 4046 is tested.
The 20-day MA is at 4088 so this is an initial support test when/if price heads lower. The key 50-wk MA is at 4016 so this support level carries clout going forward. Ditto the super-critical and decider the 12-mth MA at 4018.
Obviously, when/if price drops and tests 4046, if it fails, and dies after the bounce or die decision, then the 4016-4018 support is the next target where the fate of the stock market will be decided for months forward. If price bounces from 4046, the bulls will be back in biz.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/17/23, at 6:30 AM EST: The SPX drops 57 points, -1.4%, yesterday to 4090 using the 20-day MA at 4088 as support. Of course it is. LOD is 4089. Thus, price is making a bounce or die decision from the 20-day and S&P futures are down -30 so the bears want to keep growling and a test of the critical 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 4051 (the moving average is moving higher) is likely. Watch today for a potential test of the 200 EMA and another important bounce or die decision from this support as explained above.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/17/23, at 11:12 AM EST: The SPX drops to 4050 to test the 200 EMA on the 60-minute. Of course it does. The battle at 4050-4051 begins with the LOD at 4049 and price now at 4058. The SPX is deciding if the short-term bull market will continue, or not. Bounce or die.
Note Added Sunday, 2/19/23: The SPX finishes last week at 4079. The 12-mth MA and 50-wk MA are both at 4016. How do you like 'dem apples? A major test of the cyclical bear market is likely on tap at 4016. Bulls win above 4016 but bears will create carnage below 4016.
Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology FINAL Article 103 Published 2/14/23; THIS IS THE FINAL ARTICLE OF THE 3-YEAR CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY SERIES; COVID-19 Pandemic Transitions into Endemic Phase Like the Seasonal Flu; Coronavirus Cases Continue Lower Worldwide and in the United States; World Reports 678 Million Total China Virus Cases and 6.78 Million Deaths; US Reports 104.8 Million Total COVID-19 Cases and 1.14 Million Deaths; COVID-19 Daily Infections and Deaths Worldwide and in the United States Drop to Levels Not Seen Since Start of Pandemic in Early 2020; Republican-Controlled US House of Representatives Asks Fauci (NIAID), Collins (NIH) and Daszak (EcoHealth) to Testify before Congress about the Origins of COVID-19 and Gain-of-Function Research
By K E Stone (Keystone)
Happy Valentine’s Day. Maybe for some but not for Keystone;
he is breaking up today. Yes, but it is a happy and healthy break-up rather
than a sad and lonely one. It is time for Keystone to part ways with the
Coronavirus Chronology series.
Article 103 is the final chapter of the China Virus Bible.
The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic transitions into the endemic phase like the
seasonal flu. After 3 long years of chronicling the COVID-19 pandemic, it is
The End as Jimmy would sing.
Keystone has written far over 1 million words on the
pandemic over the last 3 years. That’s a lot the equivalent of writing a dozen
novels one every 3 months for the last 3 years. There are 800 covid charts in
those 103 articles many calling out infection waves before the authorities in
countries or in the United States knew what was occurring. Keystone would warn
the confused blind leaders via Twitter.
It is a proud collection of work after three years and
serves as a historical document explaining the human goofiness, angst and
irrational behavior that occurs during a once-in-a-century pandemic. The
Coronavirus Chronology is special because the daily zeitgeist is recorded in
real-time for history. Hundreds of books will be written about the pandemic but
none will equal the pandemic drama captured and recorded, as it occurred in
real-time, in the Coronavirus Chronology.
Next comes the task of how to publish the entire Coronavirus
Chronology work. It may be best to separate the chronology into volumes perhaps
one for each covid infection wave 1 through 8 in the US.
Over the coming months, anyone can access any of the 103
articles at The Keystone Speculator blog.
If there is a certain period during the pandemic that you want to know
what happened in real-time, simply scroll the archive list in the right margin
and go back to read the Coronavirus Chronology articles written at that time.
The articles were published at 10-day intervals during the last 3 years. That
is why there are 103 of them.
The COVID-19 pandemic missteps and recommendations will also
fill a future book. Keystone is perhaps more intimate and familiar with
everything that happened during the covid pandemic than almost anyone else.
Write about the pandemic for a few hours every day for the last three years and
you would be intimate with the subject as well.
The first book Keystone will likely publish on the pandemic will
be grouping the titles for all 103 articles together which will provide a
shorthand chronology for everything that occurred during the 3-year pandemic.
Fear not; it will be priced cheap only 2 or 3 bucks.
There will be more pandemic aftermath ahead. It will be
interesting to see how low the COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths will
drop as the endemic phase arrives. Dr’s Fauci (NIAID) and Collins (NIH) will
have to testify concerning their nefarious deeds and research at the Wuhan Labs
via the middle-man EcoHealth Alliance.
The new republican-controlled House of Representatives is
investigating the origins of COVID-19 so this drama will play out over the next
year. Biden should have did this work but some say he is compromised by
communist China after he, his son and his brother all have their hands in
dirtbag Dictator Xi’s cookie jar. One plus of the pandemic is that the world
has a better realization at how conniving, dishonest and threatening communist
China is to the planet.
The vaccine and mask dramas and controversies will continue
although the majority of Americans have moved on months ago. The public will
likely view the covid vaccines the same as the seasonal flu shots going
forward. Those that religiously receive a flu shot each year will likely
roll-up the opposite sleeve for a covid shot while the folks that did not
bother to get vaccinated, like Keystone, will likely not bother with the covid
jabs going forward. You only live once. Some folks choose to hide under the bed
while others are Born to Be Wild embracing the dangers and adventures of life.
Another pandemic loose end is the mounting claims of vaccine
injuries. Americans are claiming COVID-19 vaccine injuries but the US
government is turning its back on these folks. It is sickening stuff. The US
government lies in bed with Big Pharma making billions off vaccines and pills.
Some of this money is then donated to universities for research projects.
Of course, the professors, research doctors and scientists
tout vaccines because it is the lifeblood of their careers. Pfizer/BioNTech and
Moderna were given protection from lawsuits for the mRNA vaccines. What
recourse is available for people that were injured by the vaccines? They were
physically-hurt by the shots so they need compensation especially since they
listened to, and obeyed, the edicts from the politicians and healthcare
professionals. That was stupid. Millions of Americans were told to take an
experimental mRNA vaccine and they did.
Hindsight is 20/20 and it is obvious that the only folks
that should have been vaccinated with the new mRNA serum during the COVID-19
pandemic are the elderly, obese, and those with other health ailments
(diabetes, cancer, heart issues, immunocompromised, etc…). The data show that
children under 18 years old are not at high risk from COVID-19 unless they have
underlying health problems and/or are suffering from childhood obesity.
It will take a while for Americans to get back into the full
pre-pandemic swing of things if they ever do. The pandemic changed the working
world where the have’s could work at home, becoming richer, while the have
not’s were isolated at home unable to perform the less-skilled jobs that demand
a physical presence. They became poorer. Mom always said the rich get richer
and the poor poorer and she was right as America’s crony capitalism system
gasps its last breaths of life.
The work-from-home (WFH) situation blossomed during the
pandemic and is now ingrained into the American workforce. Many companies and
businesses are telling employees to return to the office since productivity has
suffered. The workforce and school disruptions will improve. Americans are
dealing with the new paradigm shift in jobs and careers. The pandemic aftermath
for the subjects above and others will continue.
In Asia, Taiwan is recovering from an infection wave bump
after the Lunar New Year holiday. The same behavior is likely occurring in
China (including Hong Kong). The communists are not providing COVID-19 data to the
rest of the world. What else is new from dishonest communist China? The data
that is provided is lies.
Therefore, Taiwan is used as a proxy for what is occurring
in mainland China so the assumption can be made that the commie nation is doing
okay with the covid outbreak that peaked in late December early January. The
only disappointment is that covid deaths in Taiwan remain elevated so the same
is likely occurring across China.
The worry is that the XBB lineage specifically XBB15 will
attack China but there is no indication of this yet. China says BA5, BA52 and
BF7 are the main variants at play but this information is a couple months old
and likely lies or partial lies. The XBB bugs may have already done their deed
in China and were maybe in play in January. China will never tell the world the
truth.
Nonetheless, Taiwan is heading in the right direction so
China and Hong Kong should be as well. Japan and South Korea continue improving
so all this positivity will lead to the world’s daily new covid cases continuing
lower. The COVID-19 endemic phase is in the house.
The world endured 10 waves the worst was wave 6 one year
ago. The United States endured 8 pandemic waves with waves 3 and 6 the most
devastating.
The Coronavirus Chronology is using 8 metrics to assess the
pandemic to endemic transition. Keystone pulled these metrics out of thin air
since the CDC lacks leadership during the pandemic. (1) The world’s daily new
cases should be below 360K per day to claim endemic status and cases are down
to 158K per day and dropping. (2) The world’s daily new deaths should be below
1.3K per day and they are now below 1K per day down to 935 covid bodies per
day. Another win for the endemic team.
(3) For the United States to be in the endemic phase, the
daily new cases should be below or around 10K cases per day and are now at
about 17K per day and dropping. Since some states are overreporting the
numbers, a drop below 20K per day will be good enough. (4) US active cases
should be below 730K cases (at least below 1.0 or 1.2 million) now at 1.59
million. The active cases should meet this endemic goal in the days and couple
weeks ahead.
(5) The US COVID-19 death rate should be below 120 to 180
bodies per day to become comparable to the regular flu season but remain
stubbornly high at 200 bodies per day (a jumpy number that is dropping). The
deaths are likely overcounted with covid blamed for every stiff body in the
morgue. The expectation is that the US death rate will drop more sharply going
forward. Covid is running out of old and fat people to kill.
(6) To declare the endemic phase in America, US
hospitalizations should drop below 10K patients and are now under 20K. Again,
knowing more about the data, the numbers are likely overreported so if the
covid patients fall below 20K that will be good enough. (7) The CDC Community
Transmission map should turn completely green and yellow to usher in the
endemic phase and 98% of US counties meet these criteria with 2% remaining in
the high-risk orange zone. A drop below 2% for the high-risk counties with
infections continuing lower is good enough to declare the endemic phase.
(8) Lastly, the public needs to accept that the pandemic is
over and this is already in the endemic column since most Americans have
resumed their normal lives and ignore the COVID-19 news. In fact, most
Americans were done with the pandemic after the heinous wave 6 ended a year
ago.
Thus, the metrics that were made-up from whole cloth by
Keystone, since actual scientists in the virology and epidemiology field of
study did not, are looking good and the endemic phase can be declared.
World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus (try to fit that on a business card) has not yet proclaimed the end
of the worldwide pandemic so this announcement is expected in the weeks ahead.
Dr Tedros’s decree will be the final nail in the COVID-19 coffin. The US is
declaring an end to the pandemic in May as per the Biden administration.
Johns-Hopkins is ending its COVID-19 data and Coronavirus
Dashboard. The CDC has gone to only providing weekly updates of its data. California
has declared the start of the COVID-19 endemic phase but it may have a lot to
do with democrat Governor Newsom wanting to run for president if Sleepy Joe
Biden decides to not run for a second term. Germany, France and other European
nations are moving on from the pandemic.
The COVID-19 data is becoming scarce and the reporting
periods are starting to vary greatly among countries another sign that the
pandemic is over and the endemic phase is at hand. Some countries are not even
keeping track of covid cases anymore because the numbers are tiny. Others have
gone to weekly reporting schedules.
Worldometer is cutting back on its data reporting schedule
as the pandemic winds down. Some nations are skipping reporting weekend numbers
and lumping them into Monday. The covid data is becoming a hodgepodge of
sketchy numbers these days indicating that nations are moving on from the
pandemic. It is wonderful news.
The major news networks do not pay much attention to
COVID-19 anymore another indication of the endemic phase. 120 to 180 Americans
die per day from regular flu during the winter months and no one ever bats an
eyelash. COVID-19 is falling into this same camp.
In regular conversations with friends, family, coworkers,
neighbors and the guy at the concert, people do not even mention the COVID-19
pandemic anymore unless it is in passing related to another topic such as, “Mary
has fallen behind in her studies over the last couple years due to the pandemic
but is quickly catching-up.” No one frets over covid case numbers or deaths
anymore. The bold red chyrons running along the bottom of television screens no
longer mention COVID-19. Americans move on from the pandemic now looking at
covid like the regular flu.
The world’s daily new COVID-19 cases chart is shown above.
The world reports only 78K daily new covid cases for Sunday, 2/12/23, the
lowest cases since the pandemic started in April 2020!! Put that in your pipe
and smoke it. The pandemic has round-tripped. Celebrate! Celebrate! Dance tothe music.
The 7-day MA for the world’s daily new cases is down to 158K
cases per day continuing lower although the rate lower has softened over the
last couple weeks. As Taiwan, South Korea and Japan continue improving (China’s
data is not in the total), the world’s cases should resume a shaper path lower.
The world’s daily new COVID-19 deaths chart is shown above.
The world’s covid death rate is down to 935 souls per day below 1,000 per day
not seen since the start of the pandemic 3 years ago. Another reason to be
Shiny Happy People.
However, there is always one covid fly in the ointment.
Russia’s daily new covid cases chart is shown above. Russia begins a new
infection wave with cases averaging over 11K per day but the expectation is
that it will be a minor bump wave and resolve quickly.
Scumbag Dictator Putin continues waging war against Ukraine
and is beginning new offenses. The big build-up in troops and support in
western Russia likely creates the bump in covid infections (increased human
interaction).
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA
for US daily covid cases drops to 17K cases per day heading lower. COVID-19
cases are in the single-digits on the weekend. The daily COVID-19 cases in the
US are down to levels not seen since the summer of 2021 and the start of the
pandemic.
Once the cases drop below the 12K to 13K cases per day
range, which should be in the days ahead, that will directly compare back to
the start of the pandemic. It’s all good. The pandemic is now endemic.
The US active cases chart is shown above. The active
COVID-19 cases in America drop to 1.59 million a 1.5-handle! The active cases
are dropping to form the coveted bell shape that verifies that the virus is
being defeated. It is all good news after 3 years of pandemic misery.
There are likely a lot of patients labeled as covid when
other ailments and afflictions are playing a larger role in their poor health.
Thus, not seeing the active cases curve fall below prior wave lows as yet is
not an issue. As the daily cases continue lower, active cases will drop in
unison.
The US cumulative COVID-19 deaths chart is shown above. Over
1.14 million Americans are dead from COVID-19 during the last 3 years a glaring
failure of the Trump, Fauci, Biden leadership. The Three Stooges. The unholy
trinity. The United States could not have had worse managers in charge during a
once-in-a-century pandemic than clown Trump and bozo Biden; Tweedledumb and
Tweedledumber.
440K Americans died from China Virus under President Trump’s
watch and 700K died, and are dying, under President Biden’s watch. Over 1-1/2
times as many Americans have died from covid under Biden compared to Trump. Both
records are disastrous but in fairness to Sleepy Joe, he has been in office for
2 years of the pandemic compared to Trump’s one year.
The elderly, overweight and those with other health ailments
are dying from COVID-19. If you are a healthy or young person, the bad COVID-19
outcome is likely not in the cards. If you are overweight, old, huffing for
breath when you walk to get the mail each day, and suffering from other health
issues such as cancer and diabetes, you already have one leg in the covid
coffin.
The US daily new COVID-19 deaths chart is shown above. US
covid deaths are down to 200 souls per day and dropping comparing back to the
start of the pandemic in March 2020; great news. The death rate needs to drop
into the 120 to 180 deaths per day range to compare to the regular flu and it
should get there in the days ahead.
The chart illustrates that Sleepy Joe’s claim of a -90%
reduction in covid deaths is correct but it occurred a year ago at the end of
wave 6 and he conveniently leaves out the truth on each side of that -90%.
Under Biden’s watch, American covid deaths jumped from 250 per day to 3000 per
day, an 1100% increase in deaths, from July 2021 to January 2022.
Wave 6 ended in January and February 2022, one year ago, so
deaths drop from 3000 per day to 300 per day the -90% reduction touted by
confused Grandpa Joe at the State of the Union address. From February 2022 to
January 2023, American covid deaths double under Biden’s watch from 300 bodies
per day to a peak of nearly 600 per day as wave 8 peaked last month. Biden
forgot to tell Americans that covid deaths doubled (+100%) under his watch over
the last year.
How do you know if a politician is lying? His lips are
moving. Are you beginning to understand the depth of corruption in the
demopublican and republocrat tribes as America’s crony capitalism system
crumbles? Everything is deceit.
US COVID-19 hospital admissions are falling like a rock at
9-month lows a wonderful sight.
US COVID-19 hospitalizations are down to 20K patients
dropping below the prior lows now at a 9-month low like admissions; great news.
The US COVID-19 hospitalizations chart is shown above. The dip in covid patients in spring 2022 is
down at about 10K so it will take a little more work to take that low out and
compare back to the start of the pandemic but keep in mind that the
hospitalization numbers are likely overreported.
Uncle Cornelius shows up at the emergency room with chest
pains. He has diabetes, heart and lung problems, cancer, PTSD, and is 60 pounds
overweight. He is a chain-smoker and heavy-drinker. The only exercise he
receives is walking from the living room sofa to the refrigerator and back each
day. Corny had RSV and a bout with the regular flu over the last two weeks. His
back has slipped out of place and he finds out today if he starts cancer
treatments. Cornelius told Nurse Goodbody that he thinks he saw a faint line on
an expired rapid covid test he took yesterday so she wrote him down as a covid
patient.
The US Community Transmission map is green and beautiful.
Isn’t the saying, “Black is beautiful?” Today, “Green is beautiful.” The Four
Corners area is completely green so Navajo Nation is doing well. Montana has a
few high infection areas. Ditto New Jersey, Florida and a few other places but
the high-risk orange counties are now down to 2% of the map. The endemic phase
is here.
The Community Transmission map should be a key tool touted
by the CDC as a means of informing the public in a very simple straightforward
manner. The CDC messaging was far too complex for many Americans.
To reach the maximum amount of people with vaccine or other
instructions, the message must be written so a fifth-grader can understand the
topic. The map is a great tool but most Americans do not know it exists or
where to find it. The CDC flunks Marketing 101.
The Biden administration fails to reach poor communities in inner
city and rural areas. Poor folks do not have computers. The best way to reach
them is to actually print out the message, such as the Community Transmission
map, and place the hard copies at the local thrift stores, drug stores, food
banks, the library, and businesses around town. A lot of lives probably could
have been saved with Paxlovid but those poor dead folks did not know that the
anti-viral drug even existed once they tested positive for covid. The rich do
not care because they are not the ones dying anymore.
The US vaccination rate has dwindled into nothingness down
to only 66K shots per day and this data is a week old! The vax chart is shown
above. There are likely only about 50K covid vaccination shots occurring per
day right now in real-time the least since the shots began.
In a US population of 330 million, only 0.02% of Americans are
stepping up to take a covid shot each day or only 1 in every 6,600 people. No
wonder cobwebs were attaching to Nurse Goodbody’s feet when she ran the
vaccination kiosk at the local mall that is now shuttered.
The variant proportions data shows that 75% of the current
US covid cases are the XBB15 variant. 15% are BQ11. 5% are BQ1. 2% are XBB. 1% is
the CH11 bug that may be more bark than bite. Clearly, XBB15 takes over as the
main variant in charge but remember, the overall covid pie continues shrinking
each day. Americans can look forward to a bright spring and summer ahead.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 104.8 million. India is next with 44.7 million total virus
cases. France, Germany, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Italy, UK, Russia, Turkey, Spain,
Vietnam, Australia, Argentina, Taiwan, Netherlands, Iran, Mexico, Indonesia,
Poland, Colombia, Austria, Greece and Portugal round out the top 25 worst
nations for total COVID-19 cases during the 3-year pandemic.
COVID-19 has infected 678 million people worldwide. China
(CCP) owes reparations to the world for its sick heinous crime against
humanity. 6.78 million people on Earth are dead from the China Flu. 651 million
global citizens have recovered from the virus.
96% (651/678) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. The percentage remains steady for many
months. Worldwide, 1.0% (6.78/678) of the people that are infected with covid
die; 1 in 100 (hit the 1/x button on your calculator).
8.8% (678/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 11 people on earth. 0.09%
of the world’s population (6.78/7670) died from the pandemic so far; 1 in every
1,117 people on earth died from China Virus over the last 3 years.
The latest census data shows that the world has crossed the
8 billion population milestone but the Coronavirus Chronology continued using
the 7.67 billion number for calculations to remain consistent. Now that the
Coronavirus Chronology is ending, any future comparisons for the world should
use the 8,000,000,000 number. 1.4 billion people are in communist China, 1.4
billion are in India and 330 million are in the United States.
In the US, 104.8 million people have been infected with covid.
1.14 million Americans are dead. 102.1 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to 97% (102.1/104.8) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19.
Those are good odds especially when you look around and see
most people fatter than yourself. Most of the COVID-19 deaths are old or fat
people and heaven help you if you are old and fat. COVID-19 is a pandemic of
the elderly and obese.
In the US, 1.1% (1.14/104.8) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. 1 in every 92 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus die. 0.35% (1.14/330)
of Americans have died from COVID-19 which is 1 in every 289 Americans over the
last 36 months.
PUT SIMPLY, ABOUT 1 IN EVERY 300 AMERICANS DIED FROM
COVID-19 OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS. All of us have loved-ones that passed away with
a COVID-19 illness. A once-in-a-century pandemic touches everyone; rich, poor,
young, old, and any race, ethnicity and religion.
With all the ridiculous talk about race nowadays, fueled by
political agendas, no one can accuse COVID-19 of being racist since it never
met a host body it did not love. Maybe humans will one day learn what a virus
already knows that everyone is the same? Probably not.
32% (104.8/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. That is 1 in every 3 Americans. The latest
data and commentaries, even from the CDC is that 80% and maybe 90% or more of
Americans have been infected with COVID-19 over the last 3 years (many positive
tests and illnesses are not reported and some people did not know they had
covid). The strong US herd immunity turned wave 8 into a little bump and
creates the transition from pandemic to endemic.
The United States has 15.5% (104.8/678) of the COVID-19
cases in the world. 2 in every 13 people that become infected with covid on the
planet are Americans. The US vaccination program made an impact month’s ago,
but not so much in recent months.
The US accounts for 16.8% (1.14/6.78) of the China Flu
deaths in the world. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are
Americans. A couple years ago, it was 1 in 5 so vaccinations helped.
This Article 103 is the final chapter in the Coronavirus
Chronology that provides real-time information for historians, teachers,
students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives,
financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, first
responders, psychologists, psychiatrists, counselors, neurologists, researchers,
public officials, news organizations, traders, investors and politicians
studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally.
This one hundred and third article is published on Tuesday, 2/14/23,
Valentine’s Day. The Coronavirus Chronology series of articles are the only
real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic from early 2020 into 2023; it is the China Virus Bible.
Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political narratives or media spin. The
information is direct and unapologetic. A chronology can be written no other
way.
All 103 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The
Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want
to remain up to speed with the COVID-19 pandemic that has transitioned into the
endemic phase. Read the articles fast before Google deletes the content again.
Keystone is the victim of unholy censorship over the last
couple years for simply reporting the important COVID-19 news each day. In
America’s crony capitalism system, you must tout the political narrative of the
day, otherwise, you are blacklisted, labeled a charlatan and people try to
destroy your reputation. Welcome to America. Keystone has been called a lot
worse in life and bows to no man.
The Worldometer web site tracks coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well. All three data
sources are slowing their COVID-19 reporting an indication that the virus is
transitioning into the endemic phase.
The republican-controlled House sends out dozens of letters
kicking-off an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Some accountability
may finally occur. Three key individuals are at the top of the focus list;
retired Whitehouse chief medical advisor and NIAID head Dr Anthony Fauci,
retired NIH Director Dr Francis Collins that was Fauci’s boss, and EcoHealth
Alliance President Peter Daszak.
Weeks ago, Fauci said he would testify before Congress if
asked but they all say that and then act differently once the knock on the door
occurs and the papers are served. Fauci, Collins and Daszak must come clean
about the nefarious gain of function research (that Fauci claims is not gain of
function because he and his cronies changed the definition when the whip camedown) occurring at the Wuhan Labs that may have led to a lab leak and the
once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic.
The NIH releases an interesting study titled, “Lingeringsymptoms common after COVID hospitalization,” and it ties into the discussions
above with active cases, hospital admissions and hospitalizations. The study
says many adults experience problems like coughing, chest pain and fatigue six
months after their hospital stay.
Chances are that you are old or fat or both if admitted to
the hospital with COVID-19 so if you beat the virus, congratulations, but you are
now older and will probably remain fat so of course you will experience
lingering health issues. Eat a salad and take a walk around the block. Get
yourself healthy. You are the only one that can do it.
Across the pond, King Charles’ wife, Camilla, 75 years old,
the Queen Consort, is that what they call it these days, tests positive for
COVID-19. Of course, she is vaccinated like a pincushion and this is the second
time she has contracted coronavirus. She calls the covid positive test “a
seasonal illness.” Charles will have to consort elsewhere for a few days.
New York Governor Hochul remains stubborn refusing to relax
the COVID-19 vaccination rules for healthcare workers as staff shortages continue
that hurt patient care. Idiot Hochul proclaims, “When you walked into a health
care facility, a hospital or a nursing home, you should have the right to know
that an individual who is taking care of you is not going to contract a virus
and pass it on to you.”
Hey jackass idiot, the covid vaccine does not stop the
transmission of coronavirus. Are you actually that stupid, lady? Did you not
learn anything about the vaccines over the last 27 months? New York, and the country,
is doomed with such stupid humans in powerful positions.
The COVID-19 pandemic ends where it began in communist China
at the Wuhan Laboratories. China is experiencing the worst infection wave of
any nation on earth during the 3-year pandemic between November 2022 and
present. Tens, probably hundreds of millions of Chinese folks were infected
with covid and millions died over the last 4 months.
COVID-19 karma attacks communist China over the last few
months. The Chinese folks have had a tough time over the last couple years and
are only beginning to recover emotionally, mentally and financially from the
draconian lockdowns imposed by their rulers Dictator Xi and the CCP.
Unfortunately, the Chinese have to live under the communist, authoritarian and
dictatorial rule of Xi and his CCP henchmen.
Coronavirus, that started in Wuhan, China, likely from a lab
leak, circles the globe a few times bringing humanity to its knees, and then
returns to its creator. The Frankenstein coronavirus monster returns home to
mainland communist China, the country from which it was spawned, seeking
vengeance for its existence.
It will feel odd not writing the Coronavirus Chronology
updates each day or forecasting the latest infection waves based on the charts
and data. It was a fun and interesting 3-year writing project.
Keystone did not set out to write the Coronavirus Chronology
it simply ended up that way. Sometimes when you are tapped on the shoulder by
the invisible finger, you have to follow the vibration. Keystone did not pick
coronavirus but the virus picked him.
The Coronavirus Chronology will be read and referenced for many
decades. It is a proud accomplishment. The censorship, banning and harassment
from overzealous control freaks will not be missed. Keystone can now return tothe simple life.
It is Valentine’s Day and time for Nurse Goodbody to receive
(ahem) her gift.