By K E Stone (Keystone)
What timing. Breaking news. As Article 92 is prepared, CDC
Director Rochelle Walensky announces that she tests positive for COVID-19. You
cannot make the stuff up. A CDC statement says Walensky is experiencing ‘mild
symptoms’ which is the go-to catch-phrase that the multiple-vaccinated use when
they get sick with covid. Staff and close contacts are monitoring their own
health to see if they test positive.
Walensky received the bivalent booster shot only a month ago
so that is probably about 4 mRNA jabs in her body. Instead of a ‘vaccine’, they
should call the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA offerings ‘symptom-reducer
shots’. It is a better description of what the mRNA shots deliver. Hopefully,
Walensky will have a speedy recovery. She plans to work remotely for a few
days.
Now back to the originally-scheduled programming. The slow
trek to the COVID-19 endemic phase continues. The news is positive worldwide
although there are hotspots. In a nutshell, the daily cases for the European
infection waves (Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium) have
peaked so the hospitals and clinics will see lighter covid caseloads going
forward. Deaths in Europe, however, will remain elevated and rising for a
couple more weeks.
In Asia, Singapore remains the poster child for the XBB
(BA210) variant and it cannot be determined if the daily new cases have peaked
until Tuesday’s data is known which will be available on Thursday, 10/27/22.
Japan and Hong Kong are experiencing mini-bumps in daily new cases representing
the XBB variant at play (confirmed in Hong Kong and likely in Japan).
Taiwan has peaked with daily new cases which will help pull
the world’s cases sharply lower, along with the cases decreasing in Europe,
especially the Deutschland. Adding to the generally rosy picture, the UK daily cases
are not rising any substantive amount so the typical migration of infections
from Europe and the UK to America may not be in the works this Fall. Every
scientist, doctor and television talking head, and the Uber driver, guarantee a
new serious COVID-19 infection wave in the United States this winter. Maybe
not.
The last month has been wine and roses in the United States with
the pandemic subsiding and potentially transitioning into the endemic phase.
The bad US state list that appears at the end of each Coronavirus Chronology article
was not needed since all states had decreasing active cases charts. However,
the naughty US state list is back because infections are rising again in New
Hampshire and Maine.
Interestingly, the East Coast states are fine with no sign
of rising cases. Canada is displaying rising cases and a new infection wave so
the Canucks are infecting the northeastern US. Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City
are a stone’s throw from New Hampshire and Maine. It is odd that Vermont and New York do not
show signs of covid trouble since they are in the same neighborhood.
Perhaps the major infection area is Nova Scotia, New
Brunswick and Quebec City that infects Maine and then the China Virus migrates
south and west into New Hampshire which explains why the other states do not
see a problem yet.
Thus, the bad news is that the infections in the northeast
states may migrate south. Vermont and Massachusetts have to be watched like a
hawk. The good news is that the European and UK infections may not cause a
problem in the States going forward.
A developing worry is that the BQ1 and BQ11 variants are now
making up almost 30% of the new infections in New York and New Jersey. The
daily new cases, however, remain small and flat which is what matters. Be aware
that percentages can be deceiving especially as case numbers drop and the
portion of BA5 infections decrease each week. BQ11 is detected in 29 of the
approximate 200 countries on earth. BQ1, BQ11 and XBB (BA210) are the bugs of
most concern currently.
Europe is on the mend with daily new cases dropping in
Germany, France and Italy but the European Centre for Disease Prevention and
Control (ECDC) proclaims that the BQ1 and BQ11 variants will dominate the new
covid cases by mid-November and early December. The ECDC warns that the
COVID-19 infections will then ramp higher for weeks and months forward into
2023.
The jury is out with this negative scenario for Europe. After
watching the data and charts for the last 2-1/2 years, and with the European
nations improving, and the virus not spreading to neighboring countries, the
picture across the pond may be far brighter than the ECDC predicts. The ECDC
crystal ball may be cloudy and needs some polishing. Like America’s CDC, is the
ECDC fear-mongering to encourage vaccinations?
For the charts, let’s start with the world, then Asia, then
Europe, then come around to the America’s. The world’s daily new cases chart is
shown above. The world reports 414K daily new cases for Thursday. Remember, the
Worldometer data has a 2-day lag these days. The 7-day MA for the world’s daily
new cases is 397K cases per day slipping below the 4 hundo level a glorious
sight.
The world’s COVID-19 cases drop as the waves subside in Europe
and Taiwan. There is still a lot of work required to bring the numbers lower
but the news is encouraging. Germany, France, Italy, Taiwan and Japan add
mightily to the world’s cases. Sub 360K cases per day is the goal since this
will compare back to 2020 and signal the transition from pandemic to endemic.
71%, or almost 3 in every 4, new COVID-19 infections
worldwide are occurring in only 6 countries; Taiwan (10% of all new infections
worldwide each day), Japan (9%), Germany (22%), France (14%), Italy (10%) and
the United States (6%). Germany is the sick old man of Europe with almost 1 in
every 4 new covid cases worldwide occurring in the Deutschland each day.
Grouping central Europe together, 3 nations, Germany, France
and Italy, account for 46% or almost one-half of all new covid cases occurring
around the world each day. There must have been a lot of wild orgies during the
August and early September vacation and holiday party season in Europe.
The world’s daily new deaths chart is shown above. Global
deaths are at 1.3K per day a disappointing number since the global death rate
has been dropping towards the 1,000 level. Hopefully, the small increase in
deaths will roll back over to the downside in quick order. Most of the covid
deaths around the world these days are the elderly.
Global COVID-19 deaths need to drop below 1.3K bodies per
day to compare back to the start of the pandemic and signal the transition to
the endemic phase. For the last month, the world’s deaths were sub 1.3K per day
a checkmark in the endemic column but now that check may turn into an X. It will
be good news to see the deaths resume the path lower from this 1.3K bodies per
day perch.
Singapore’s daily new cases chart is shown above the poster
boy for the XBB variant. The world is rooting for good things to happen to
Singapore because no one wants a nasty new bug to travel around the world.
Singapore reports 8.2K daily new cases for Thursday and the 7-day MA is at 7.9K
cases per day trying to top-out.
Singapore’s current peak in daily cases is 11.9K on
10/18/22. The cases on Tuesday, 10/25/22, that will be known on 10/27/22, will
dictate if Singapore’s daily cases chart has topped-out, or not. Write a note
on the calendar for Thursday morning as a do it or die moment for Singapore.
The path appears optimistic going forward for Singapore but that cannot be
written in stone until Thursday. XBB may be more bark than bite. The world
hopes so.
Taiwan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Taiwan
reports 40K cases for Thursday and the 7-day MA is down to 40K cases per day
great news. Taiwan is improving. Taiwan’s COVID-19 active cases chart has just
started to roll over lower at 875K patients another positive development. 10%
of the new China Virus infections are in Taiwan so the drop in cases will
improve the overall numbers for the world.
Indonesia and Malaysia are getting infected from Singapore
and showing a tiny bump higher in cases but tiny bumps can grow into big waves.
The XBB bug is making mischief among the islands. There is no way to stop the
island boys from seeking the pretty island girls only a canoe ride away. This
is a disappointing development but the case numbers remain tiny and the blips
may roll over quickly.
Philippines is okay with no sign of increased cases yet.
China’s COVID-19 problems continue as the Chinse people are fed up with the
mass testing, lockdowns, food shortages and quarantines. A teenage girl dies at
a quarantine facility a week ago generating more public anger which is rare in
communist China. Of course, the news stories regarding the death are wiped from
China’s social internet platforms by the CCP-controlled media.
Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The heinous
infection wave was defeated but over the last couple weeks cases edge higher
again. Is it the XBB variant at play? The peak for the new mini-wave is 46K
cases on 10/13/22 so the 10/20/22 cases are key for the week-to-week comparison
to see if the wave is rolling over. The 10/20/22 cases are just released at 36K
a great number that forecasts the wave to roll over going forward. The 7-day MA
for Japan’s daily cases takes a first click lower at 33K cases per day and is
expected to continue lower.
Traveling over to Europe, France’s daily new cases chart is
shown above. The daily new cases peaked on 10/11/22 at 95K cases and are
trending lower ever since. The 7-day MA is rolling over down to 52K cases per
day. France’s active cases chart should start to flatten-out and roll over in
the days ahead. The news is good so it is odd to hear the doom and gloom from
the ECDC.
The ECDC expects cases to subside into November but then
start up in the back half of the month and then higher from there into the New
Year. Last year’s heinous infection wave in France started in mid-November so
the ECDC is simply using last year’s fractal to project the same behavior for
this year. Any bump in cases in Europe as the year changes over will likely be
subtle and no biggie; an infection wave that is not worse than the current wave.
Italy’s and Germany’s charts are similar to France both improving.
The UK daily new cases chart is shown above. The media has
been reporting doom and gloom in the UK over the last 2 months but the daily
new cases simply do not agree with the doomsters. Where’s the beef? The chart
looks fine. The 7-day MA for UK daily new cases decreases to 6.9K cases per day
small numbers. The argument can be made that the UK may be in the endemic
phase.
Further, the UK’s active cases chart is rolling over the
last 2 days from 218 million cases to 213 million more good news. The COVID-19
trouble reported in the UK and international press does not appear justified.
With Europe improving and the UK not showing any sign of covid distress, the
picture becomes brighter for the United States going forward.
The expected infection migration from Europe and the UK to
the US for the Fall and winter seasons may not be on tap this year. This
outcome will make for a joyous and fun holiday season. Keystone orders an extra
box of mistletoe and sends the Santa Claus costume to the cleaners.
Now over to South America where Chile is the only nation experiencing
new covid trouble. Chile’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Daily cases bump higher over the last couple
weeks. Thwack. Chile reports 6.4K cases on 10/20/22 a new peak high for the
current infection wave now confirmed and heading higher. Cases pop by 700 from
Wednesday to Thursday; not good.
Chile’s 7-day MA is up to 4.8K cases per day ramping higher.
Hopefully, the daily cases will not go parabolic. Chile must be monitored
closely because an out-of-control outbreak would infect the whole continent.
The surrounding countries are fine right now with no signs of covid trouble.
Perhaps ocean commerce with Singapore, Indonesia and
Malaysia, and Australia and New Zealand that report continuing covid cases, is
the culprit infecting Chile. The world wants the copper in Chile, Peru and
Bolivia so the ships move across the seas non-stop. It is important to know
what variants are at play in Chile. Is the XBB variant hitching a ride across
the Pacific Ocean from Asia to Chile?
Canada’s daily new cases chart is shown above. As discussed,
the Canucks are sending their covid infections south into the United States
with cases rising in Maine and New Hampshire. Canada’s daily new cases are
running at about 3K cases per day.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. The US reports
only 24K daily new cases for Thursday and the 7-day MA drops to 28K cases per
day. The daily new cases for wave 7 continue lower good news for America and
the path ahead. There is much work to do to get cases below 10K per day, which
will signal the endemic phase, so the celebration remains on hold. Maine, New
Hampshire and the East Coast states will dictate the fate of the United States going
forward.
The US active cases chart is shown above. Active cases drop
to 1.51 million more good news for America. Folks can return to work now that
they are feeling better. A drop below 1.2 million would take out the April 2022
low and a drop below 730K would take out the July 2021 low. If US active cases can
drop below 1 million, that should be good enough for a checkmark in the endemic
column.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above. 223 Americans
continue dying from China Virus each day while Sleepy Joe Biden sleeps. The US
death rate should begin dropping more sharply since daily new cases have been
in a couple-month downtrend. If the COVID-19 deaths can get down into the 120
to 180 deaths per day range, that will compare to the seasonal flu deaths and
place covid in the endemic camp.
Speaking of deaths, the COVID-19 body count under Biden is about
to cross 1-1/2 times as many deaths as Trump. The US cumulative deaths chart is
shown above. 441K Americans perished from China Virus under King Donnie’s
reign. There are now 1.093 million Americans dead from coronavirus so 652K
Americans (1,093,000 – 441,000) have croaked from covid under Sleepy Joe Biden.
1.5 times Trump’s 441K deaths are 662K bodies.
Thus, 10K more US covid deaths will put Biden’s total covid
deaths at over 1-1/2 times the deaths that occurred under Trump. About 1,000
Americans die from COVID-19 every 4 days as impotent Whitehouse staff and the CDC
helplessly watch the coffins parade by their windows, clueless as to what to do
to stop or slow down the procession. Thus, mathematicians say ‘thus’ a lot,
it’s a math thing, Biden will be at 1.5 the deaths of Trump within 40 days or
on or around 12/1/22.
That is a lot of dead American bodies after 34 months of
pandemic misery. Remember when one death was a big deal, then a dozen, then a
hundred, then a thousand, then 10K, then you stop counting, then 100K, then you
stop paying attention, then 1 million.
Dirtbag Stalin said one death is a tragedy a million a
statistic. A virus is the only thing that could kill and stop the aliens after
they attacked and controlled planet Earth in H G Wells’ classic War of the
Worlds. Danger comes in all shapes and sizes. China Virus is invisible to the
naked eye.
Maine’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA
is moving higher at 284 cases per day. It is tiny numbers but Maine is not a
highly populated state. The peak thus far is 10/12/22 at 668 daily new cases so
this is a good indication that Maine’s wave may roll over in short order.
New Hampshire’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The 2
peak days shown in the chart are 10/15/22 and 10/19/22 at 613 and 596 covid
cases, respectively. Small numbers but they must be respected. New Hampshire
cases need to remain sub 600 through Wednesday, 10/26/22, to prove that the
infection wave can be defeated.
The 7-day MA for New Hampshire’s daily cases is up to 292
cases per day ramping higher. Maine and New Hampshire are the two canaries in
the covid coal mine providing a heads-up on what may occur in the US gong
forward. Neighboring states Massachusetts and Vermont will indicate if COVID-19
is spreading further south.
Generally speaking, the planet looks good for the COVID-19 transition
phase from pandemic to endemic. The countries and US states to focus on for the
days ahead are Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines (no sign of new
cases yet), China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Chile, Canada, Maine, New
Hampshire, Vermont (no sign of new cases yet) and Massachusetts (no sign of new
cases yet).
US hospital admissions continue trending lower as per the
CDC data although the trend lower is slowing which is disappointing. The
admissions are cut in half from the peak 10 weeks ago but it is not good that
the rate of descent is slowing. It is great to see the admissions down
substantively for the folks over 70 years old so Uncle Ricardo, Aunt Jemima,
Little Feather and Chung-ho may recover after all.
US hospitalizations continue trending lower to 20K as per
the CDC data that is 3 days old but the same disappointing pattern of a softer
descent is occurring. Hospitalizations are cut in half like the hospital
admissions dropping from the peak 10 weeks ago at 40K down to 20K but the
descent is stalling.
The CDC Community Transmission map is a beautiful green
color with pockets of yellow. There are also orange high-risk counties still at
play. The northeastern states are the most infected currently. New York state
is almost all orange and yellow but the daily new cases data does not confirm
that much negativity occurring yet.
81% of US counties are at low risk (green), 18% at medium
risk (yellow) and 1.4% high-risk (orange). This is great news and moves America
closer to the endemic phase. During the last 11 days, green increases from 77%
to 81% (a good thing), yellow drops from 20% to 18% (good), and orange drops
from 3% to 1.4% (good). The desire is to color the entire map green. 99% of the
US counties are medium or low infection.
The US vaccination rate is suffering through fits and starts
now averaging 586K shots per day based on CDC data 10 days old. Less than 10%
of the eligible people have taken the new booster shot. That is a pitiful
uptake. The Whitehouse, CDC and NIH are all hands on deck pimping the shots to
every Tom, Dick and Harry they can find, but few are buying what Fauci, Biden,
Walensky, Murthy and Jha are selling.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 99.1 million. India is next with 44.6 million total virus cases.
France, Germany, Brazil, South Korea, UK, Italy, Japan, Russia, Turkey, Spain, Vietnam,
Australia, Argentina, Netherlands, Iran, Taiwan, Mexico, Indonesia, Poland and
Colombia round out the top 22 worst nations for total COVID-19 cases. Over the
last 10 days, Germany leapfrogs Brazil. Taiwan leapfrogs Mexico.
COVID-19 has infected 633 million people worldwide. China
(the CCP) owes reparations to the world for its sick heinous crime against
humanity. 6.58 million people on Earth are dead from the China Flu a grim
statistic. 611 million global citizens have recovered from the virus.
96.5% (611/633) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. The percentage has a slight upward bias
over the last few weeks great news for the planet.
Worldwide, 1.0% (6.58/633) of the people that are infected
with covid die; 1 in 96 (hit the 1/x button on your calculator). This number
was 1.2% for over a year so slippage to 1.0% for the last few months is great
news (less people are dying after they become infected compared to prior
waves).
8.4% (633/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 12 people on earth. 0.09%
of the world’s population (6.58/7670) died from the pandemic so far; 1 in every
1,150 people on earth died from China Virus over the last couple years.
In the United States, 99.1 million people have been infected
with covid. 1.093 million Americans are dead. 96.4 million Americans have
recovered from coronavirus. This equates to 97% (96.4/99.1) of US citizens recovering
after becoming infected with COVID-19. Those are good odds. Most of the
COVID-19 deaths are old or fat people and heaven help you if you are old and
fat.
In the US, 1.1% (1.093/99.1) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. 1 in every 91 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus die. 0.3% (1/330)
of Americans have died from COVID-19 which is 1 in every 303 Americans over the
last 2-1/2 years.
30.0% (99.1/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. That is almost at 1 in every 3 Americans.
Latest data and commentaries say about 80% of the US population has been
infected with COVID-19 over the last 34 months.
The United States has 16% (99.1/633) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 6 people that become infected with covid on the planet are
Americans. The US vaccination program made an impact month’s ago, but not so
much in recent months.
The US accounts for 16.6% (1.093/6.58) of the China Flu
deaths in the world. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are
Americans. 1-1/2 years ago, it was 1 in 5 so vaccinations helped.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases (bell-curve) chart will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases
chart is the ‘flatten the curve’ chart that represents the maximum stress and
strain on the medical system and healthcare workers. Once the active cases
chart rolls over forming the bell shape, the virus is being defeated and
healthcare workers can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model is very effective and reliable in
predicting the peaks in active cases for countries and US states as shown over
the last couple years. The bad country list below is expanding again due to
covid trouble in Europe and Asia but perhaps the trouble will be short-lived.
Another 10-day period passes and more data and information become
available to push the China Virus story forward. The Coronavirus Chronology identifies
the real-time hotspots occurring around the world and within the United States.
The chronology serves as a historical document that will be referenced for
decades to come by those that want to experience the entire pandemic as it
unfolds in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and others and distributed internationally. This
is Article 92 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information
for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market
participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, psychologists, psychiatrists,
counselors, neurologists, researchers, public officials, news organizations,
traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both
domestically (USA) and internationally.
This ninety-second article is published on Saturday,
10/22/22. The Coronavirus Chronology series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
from early 2020 into and through 2022; it is the China Virus Bible.
Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. The
information is direct and unapologetic. A chronology can be written no other
way.
All 92 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The
Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want
to remain up to speed with the never-ending COVID-19 saga that may be finally moving
into the endemic phase.
The ninetieth article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)Chronology Article 90 Published 10/1/22; US Wave 7 is Ending; Asia Improving;Europe Worsening; New Global Hotspots Are Germany, France, Italy, Austria,Slovenia, Poland and Czechia; Germany Imposes Strict COVID-19 Rules; 1 in Every5 New Covid Cases Worldwide Are in Germany; Over One-Half of World’s CovidCases are in Germany, France, Italy and Austria; World Reports 623 MillionTotal China Virus Cases and 6.55 Million Deaths; US Reports 98.2 Million TotalCOVID-19 Infections and 1.085 Million Deaths; New COVID-19 Variant Named BQ11(BQ.11.); 5 Variants in Play Worldwide Are BA5, BA275, BA46, BF7 and BQ11;Former Beatles Drummer Ringo Starr Tests Positive for COVID-19; US Daily NewCases Drop Below 30K Per Day; COVID-19 Outbreaks in Germany, France, Italy,Austria, Slovenia and Czechia Are Worsening; Singapore Begins New InfectionWave Identifying New BA210 (BA.2.10) Subvariant; Dr Fauci Receives 5th COVID-19Vaccination Shot After Catching Covid Twice; 1 in Every 3 New COVID-19Infections Worldwide Are in Germany; New Infection Wave Begins in UK
The ninety-first article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Chronology Article 91 Published 10/11/22; Global Covid Hotspots Include France,
Italy, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Taiwan and Singapore; New XBB Subvariant
Appears in Singapore and Bangladesh; Key Variants in Play Worldwide Include
BA2, BA4, BA5, BA275, BA46, BF7, BQ11, BA210 and XBB; World Reports 627 Million
Total China Virus Cases and 6.56 Million Deaths; US Reports 98.6 Million Total
COVID-19 Infections and 1.088 Million Deaths; US Wave 7 in Its Last Throes;
Florida Department of Health Warns Against COVID-19 Vaccines for Men Under 40
Years Old; Pfizer and Moderna Fall Booster Shots Approved for Children 5 years
Old and Up; Pfizer’s Paxlovid May Cause Blood Clots if Used with Heart
Medications; Ringo Starr Tests Positive
for Covid a 2nd Time; New Variants Identified including BQ1, BQ13, BA2320 and
BA517 (China); US CROSSES 1.09 MILLION
CHINA VIRUS DEATHS GRIM MILESTONE; COVID-19 Variants in Play Worldwide Include
BA2, BA4, BA5, BA275 (Centaurus), BA46 (Aeterna), BF7, BA210 (XBB), BQ11, BQ1,
BQ13, BA2320 and BA517; COVID-19 TOTAL CASES TOP 630 MILLION WORLDWIDE; Boston
University Laboratory Creates Lethal Omicron-S Variant with NIAID Funding; “The
Real Anthony Fauci Movie” Explains the COVID-19 Mask and Vaccine Drama; CDC
Places COVID-19 Vaccine on Recommended Childhood Vaccine Schedule Creating
Controversy; Covid Infections Bump Higher in Maine and New Hampshire; US
CROSSES 99 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 INFECTIONS MILESTONE
The Worldometer web site tracks coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well.
The new outbreaks continue in Asia. Europe is improving. The
active cases curves are moving higher (hospitals are seeing an increase in
COVID-19 patients) for the nations listed below.
Poland (Seventh Wave) (data is
suspect; likely error in the active cases data)
9/20/22 New Case Peak Date
10/1/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (active cases flattening-out)
Belgium (Ninth Wave)
10/4/22 New Case Peak Date
10/15/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days) (active cases starting to flatten)
Germany (Eighth Wave)
10/10/22 New Case Peak Date
10/21/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
UK (Eighth Wave)
10/11/22 New Case Peak Date
10/22/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Switzerland (Eighth Wave)
10/11/22 New Case Peak Date
10/22/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days) (active cases starting to flatten)
France (Eighth
Wave)
10/11/22
New Case Peak Date
10/22/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (active cases starting to
flatten)
Italy (Eighth Wave)
10/11/22 New Case Peak Date
10/22/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days) (active cases are rolling over)
Taiwan (Second Wave)
10/13/22 New Case Peak Date
10/24/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve starting to roll over)
Singapore (Sixth Wave)
10/18/22 New Case Peak Date
10/29/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Malaysia (Seventh Wave) (case
numbers are tiny but must be watched closely)
10/19/22 New Case Peak Date
10/30/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Indonesia (Seventh Wave) (case numbers
are tiny but must be watched closely)
10/19/22 New Case Peak Date
10/30/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Japan (Sixth Wave)
10/19/22 New Case Peak Date
10/30/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Canada (Eighth Wave)
10/20/22 New Case Peak Date
10/31/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Chile (Ninth Wave)
10/20/22 New Case Peak Date
10/31/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
China remains a covid quagmire. 14
million Chinese are locked down in Xian starting yesterday. People are fed up
with Dictator Xi’s failed zero-covid strategy but when you live in a communist
nation like red China, you keep your mouth shut or you will be eating a bullet.
Xi is anointed as dictator for life at the week-long National Congress meeting.
The murderer consolidates his power rewarding his hardline communist pals with
top jobs. Xi plans to continue the zero-covid strategy indefinitely taking a
different covid path then the rest of the world. In other words, the beatings
will continue until moral improves.
Europe’s infection waves are peaking and rolling over to the
downside. Czechia is taken off the bad list. Its new mini-infection wave
started alongside Germany, France, Italy and Austria. Slovenia and Austria are
also taken off the list as their active cases charts roll over lower. Great
news for Europe.
The additions to the list include Asia nations Indonesia and
Malaysia (tiny numbers still yet) no doubt infected from Singapore that is the
poster boy for the XBB variant. On Thursday, 10/27/22, the daily new cases will
be known for Tuesday and they will dictate the path ahead for Singapore.
Like a nightmare, the US bad state list is back. The Canucks
from Quebec City, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia send their covid infections
into Maine that now migrate into New Hampshire. Is Vermont and Massachusetts
next? Vigilance is required in these northeastern states. The two new infection
waves below may resolve quickly. Maine’s daily new cases peak day is already 10
days in the rearview mirror.
Maine (Eighth Wave)
10/12/22 New Case Peak Date
10/23/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
New Hampshire (Eighth Wave)
10/19/22 New Case Peak Date
10/30/22 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts are key because if
COVID-19 infections travel across the Atlantic Ocean to America like prior Fall
periods, these 3 states should see a bump in cases.
The infamous US wave 3 started in early September 2020. The
heinous US wave 6 started in late October. These were the two worst China Virus
infection weaves thus far. US daily new cases continue trending lower now in
the 25K to 30K cases per day range. History sometimes rhymes so these two time
periods provide key insight into a potential winter infection wave in America.
The wave 3 fractal (comparing now to wave 3 behavior) is
already a bust since the daily new cases for a potential new US wave 8 would
already be rising for 5 weeks. They are not; the daily cases are dropping for
the last 5 weeks.
The jury remains out for the wave 6 fractal (comparing now
to wave 6 behavior). The United States is in the window right now where daily
new cases began driving higher beginning the horrific wave 6. It is
disappointing seeing the rising cases in the two northeastern states because
this hints that trouble may be brewing. The next couple weeks will tell the
tale.
As explained above, there is no sign that any infections
have crossed the Atlantic Ocean to the US East Coast. The Maine and New
Hampshire infections are occurring from north to south so Canada is blamed. The
CDC and WHO need to find out what variants are at play in Maine, New Hampshire,
Quebec City, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Chop chop.
The Coronavirus Chronology is using 8 metrics to assess the
pandemic to endemic transition. (1) The world’s daily new cases should be below
360K per day to claim endemic status now at 431K per day. They are not there
yet. (2) The world’s daily new deaths should be below 1.3K per day and they are
below 1.3K for the last month so this is a win for the endemic phase.
(3) For the United States to be in the endemic phase, the
daily new cases should be below 10K cases per day and are now at 26K per day. (4)
US active cases should be below 730K cases (at least below 1 million) now at 1.5
million getting there slowly. (5) The US COVID-19 death rate should be below
180 bodies per day now at 250 to 300 souls per day.
(6) To declare the endemic phase in America, US
hospitalizations should drop below 10K patients and are now at 22K sadly
starting to favor a sideways posture. (7) The CDC Community Transmission map
should turn completely green and yellow to usher in the endemic phase and 99%
of US counties meet these criteria with only 1% remaining in the high-risk
zone.
(8) Lastly, the public needs to accept that the pandemic is
over and this is already in the endemic column since most Americans have
resumed their normal lives and ignore the COVID-19 news.
There is a lot more work to do to declare the endemic phase.
Only 2 of the 8 guidelines above are in the endemic column; the same as Article
91. Thus, no progress over the last 11 days.
The path to the endemic promised land (isn’t it funny hoping
that COVID-19 becomes endemic) will be dictated by the behavior in Singapore,
Japan, Chile, Canada and the northeastern United States. The sick man of Europe
is improving which is the best news of the last few days (the infection waves
have peaked in Europe).
There is a smorgasbord of subvariants at play around the
world including BA2, BA4, BA5, BA275, BA46, BF7, BQ11, BA210, XBB and probably
a few more waiting in the shadows, as Rasmus sings.
As mentioned above, the BQ1, BQ11 and XBB (BA210) are the
variants of most concern currently. BA275, BA46, BF7, BQ11 and XBB are
resistant to Evusheld treatment which is lousy news. BQ11 and XBB are resistant
to Eli Lilly’s monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment bebtelovimab terrible news.
As per the CDC’s variant proportions data, 62% of the
current cases in the US are BA5 way down from over 90% of the cases a few weeks
ago. 11% of the new cases are BA46. 9% are BQ1. 7% are BQ11. 7% are BF7.
Grouping the BQ’s together is 16% of the new daily COVID-19 infections.
US pediatric hospitals are busy with childhood RSV cases.
Some are over capacity but do not blame that on the virus. Blame it on incompetent
managers always putting profits first and not planning properly to handle
emergencies. Americans are stupid these days. Doctors are discussing an
“immunity gap” with children due to the pandemic that makes them more
susceptible to sickness.
Youngsters were shielded during the pandemic and not exposed
to the typical germs and viruses. Now that kids are back in school and daycare
facilities and interactivity increases so RSV spreads. Interestingly, the RSV
cases now surpass the COVID-19 cases for children.
Most kids have RSV before 2 years old and get through it
fine but kids born during the pandemic are going to need slowly exposed to the
world to build up their immunity. If a child is laboring to breathe, obviously
seek medical help.
Dr Fauci is interviewed on ABC television
(democrat-controlled media) and is encouraging people to get vaccinated. What
else is new? Dr Fauci is concerned about the many new variants and some are
resistant to current treatments. He says Paxlovid remains effective but start
the regimen as fast as possible after you test positive. Time is of the essence
(this is lawyer-speak that means get Paxlovid fast).
Fauci comments on long-covid asking rhetorical questions.
Why are there sleep disturbances? Brain fog? Why are athletes feeling fatigued
after a workout when they never felt that way previously? Long-covid is a
mystery which are not reassuring words from the doctor.
Fauci is asked about the research at Boston University that
created the lethal covid variant Omicron-S with NIH funding. Fauci distances
himself from the new scandal saying the funding was never intended for the
experiments carried out at Boston University. The medical institutions and mad
scientists around the world need oversight. They are messing with things in
laboratories that will kill us all.
Pfizer says that when the government no longer pays for the
COVID-19 vaccine, the price will be $110 to $130 a shot either payable through
insurance or out of pocket. Poor and disadvantaged folks won’t bother with the
jabs since that money has to be spent on food. PFE stock soars over +5% higher.
MRNA stock catapults over +8% higher. America’s wealthy dance with glee then
kneel to worship the golden stock market calf.
The Whitehouse, CDC, NIH, Big Pharma, AMA, corrupt medical
institutions, and politicians trading stocks on insider information, watch the easy
money flow into their coffers as a result of their daily decisions. Welcome to
America the land of crony greed.
The world moves towards the COVID-19 endemic phase but
Singapore must prove in 5 days that it can defeat the XBB variant. Indonesia
and Malaysia must be watched closely in the days ahead for any sign of trouble.
Europe is improving. The UK is not a problem. Chile needs monitored. Vermont
and Massachusetts require attention to see if the infections from Maine and New
Hampshire spread south.
The CDC and WHO need to identify the variants at play in
Indonesia and Malaysia. Is it XBB?. Also, in Chile; also, in eastern Canada and
the northeastern states. Chop chop.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/23/22, at 4:00 AM EST: There are no further statements from the CDC or Dr Walensky about her COVID-19 illness. Is she taking Paxlovid? The public will follow her progress like they did for Dr Fauci and President Biden. If she takes Paxlovid, is she concerned about the potential rebound after the first 5-day regimen is finished? Walensky should provide daily updates on her covid tests and inform the public if other staff members become infected with covid. It is interesting that Walensky received her 'up-to-date booster' a month ago because Dr's Fauci, Jha, and other medical talking heads, are telling everyone to get vaccinated before Halloween because that allows a 2 to 4-week period for the maximum immunity protection to kick in and there would be no worries for Thanksgiving dinner and other holidays. So much for that. Walensky got infected as if she was not even boosted. The multiple mRNA shots obviously do not prevent infection or transmission of covid; the jabs are a 'COVID-19 symptom-reducer protocol'.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/23/22, at 4:30 AM EST: The world reports 350K daily new cases for Friday a great number. The 7-day MA is reestablishing the downtrend at 382K cases per day a beautiful sight. The world has been in a sideways covid funk for a month at 390K to 450K cases per day and are now taking out the the recent low numbers; this is important in technical analysis and hints that more downside is to come. Mother Earth keeps tiptoeing towards the endemic phase. 1,265 earthlings die from China Virus each day and the death rate is expected to begin moving lower again after a sideways lull. The covid deaths in Europe create the lull but the death rate should roll over lower going forward as conditions improve. The 7-day MA's for daily new cases for France, Germany and Italy have each rolled over and are heading lower. The active cases curves should top-out and begin rolling over as well in the days ahead. The picture in central Europe is encouraging. Italy will likely be taken off the bad country list any day forward. Canada continues reporting 3.1K to 3.2K daily new cases per day. The numbers are moving flat which makes the data suspect. Baby tyrannical King Trudeau cannot be trusted so he likely has a hand in massaging the covid data; numbers are simply not flat like that day after day. Canada crosses the 46K total COVID-19 deaths grim milestone. Chile reports 6.0K cases for Friday only surpassed by the 6.4K cases on Thursday. The test for Chile will be the daily cases on 10/27/22 (released on 10/29/22; next Saturday) that need to be below 6.4K to show that the infection wave will be short-lived and no biggie. Good luck Chile as the 7-day MA for daily new cases rises to nearly 5K per day ramping higher.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/23/22, at 5:00 AM EST: Singapore is a major focus these days since it is the XBB variant poster boy. Singapore reports 7.2K daily new cases for Friday and the 7-day MA is rolling over to the downside at 7.7K cases per day. XBB may be more bark than bite. Singapore is not out of the woods yet and Tuesday is the big test. The peak for the infection wave thus far is 11.9K cases on 10/18/22 so the 10/25/22 number (released on 10/27/22) will tell the tale in Singapore. If the XBB threat fizzles in Singapore, and Europe continues improving, where BQ11 is prevalent, the world's path to the covid endemic phase becomes brighter each day. The majority of Singapore's population is vaccinated and many also have natural immunity from prior COVID-19 infections. The XBB bug is running out of host bodies. Good. Japan reports 32K daily new cases for Friday and the 7-day MA is starting to roll over lower at 33K cases per day. Japan should improve going forward which will further help reduce the world's total covid cases. COVID-19 infections remain stubborn in Hong Kong at 5.4K cases per day. The XBB variant is at play in Hong Kong so it would be great to see the cases decrease in the coming days. Malaysia covid cases are averaging 2.1K per day ramping higher. Ditto Indonesia at 2.0K cases per day. These are tiny numbers but the XBB variant may be at play among the islands.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/23/22, at 5:30 AM EST: The US reports only 20K daily new cases for Friday a fantastic number since Fridays are typically robust data days. The 7-day MA for US daily cases drops to 24K cases per day. US active cases drop to 1.47 million a 1.4-handle. 198 Americans continue dying from China Virus each day perhaps the sub 2 hundo death rate can stick around for a while. California is concerned about a recent rise in COVID-19 cases but this is not born out in the daily new cases data; the Golden State is not showing any covid trouble. Maine and New Hampshire are in focus for the week ahead. It will be great to see their daily new cases roll over lower. Vermont, Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey are also on the watch list since infections may continue moving south from Canada or travel across the Atlantic Ocean to the East Coast. It is delightful to see, on this Sunday Morning Coming Down, that all four states show no sign of covid issues with the daily new cases.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 10/23/22: Big news on the free speech front. A Federal judge orders Dr Anthony Fauci, former Whitehouse Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Director of Whitehouse Digital Strategy Rob Fletcher, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; try to fit that on a business card) Director Jen Easterly and FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan. These folks will need some good lawyers. The judge's ruling is in reference to an ongoing lawsuit alleging that Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms colluded with the Whitehouse and medical officials to censor free speech. Anyone that did not agree with the Whitehouse narrative was banned, shadow-banned, ridiculed, vilified and/or canceled-out by the liberal-friendly algorithms. Welcome to sickening crony America where the political agendas of the dirtbag republican and democrat tribes overrule what is good for the United States and common people. Missouri Attorney General Schmitt and Louisiana Attorney General Landry filed the lawsuit. Perhaps all the government dogs that were spewing misinformation and disinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccines (such as masks and saying the shots will stop virus infection and transmission but they don't) will get their day. The lawsuit claims it can prove that Dr Fauci acted through intermediaries to censor scientific information. Keystone and the Coronavirus Chronology has been screwed and censored for the last 1-1/2 years for not touting the Whitehouse narrative. On the positive side, the international readership continues searching for, finding and following the Coronavirus Chronology despite the roadblocks and hurdles placed by dishonest people that will try to frame their deeds as a noble cause to fight the pandemic. The chronology is not beholding to either corrupt political party; they both destroyed the country over the last 5 decades. It will be great to see documents and hear the responses to depositions from the government employees above that will likely prove the collusion and the spitting on the First Amendment (that protects freedom of speech, the press, right to assembly, and the right to petition the government with grievances). Over 40 Biden people are in constant communication with media in corrupt America. The idiots are too stupid to realize that the overall uptake of vaccines during the last couple years would have likely been about the same if they would have not censored people that were questioning the wisdom of the government. Now they are in legal hot water. Medical officials need to tell the truth and level with the American people, otherwise, all credibility and trust is shattered, like now. The old saying is once a liar, always a liar.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/24/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports 246K daily new COVID-19 cases for Saturday a wonderful sight. It is even a bigger deal than first thought because 246K cases for an individual day compares back to August/September 2020!! Fantastic news. It means cases continue to drop in Europe and Taiwan. It means that the path to the China Virus endemic phase becomes clearer each day. The low number will help pull the 7-day MA lower and once it drops below 360K cases per day that will take the comparison back to 2020 and usher in the endemic phase. The 7-day MA for the world's daily new cases drops to 373K cases per day in real-time. Everything's Gonna Work Out Right, as Joey and the boys sing. The global covid death rate slumps to 1.2K bodies per day a good sign that the downtrend will reemerge. 1.2K deaths per day are moving the pandemic into the endemic phase since the body count compares back to March 2020 when the tragedy started. Nonetheless, 1,200 families are changed forever so the COVID-19 deaths need to get below 1K per day and lower. Italy is in great shape with both the daily new and active cases rolling over to the downside. Germany and France also display daily cases trending lower although their active cases still need to flatten and roll over which should be in the days forward. Europe is improving and the drop in cases will significantly decrease the global cases. Of that 373K daily cases per day average in the world right now, 49K (13%) are in France, 35K (7%) in Italy and 81K (22%) per day in Germany so these 3 nations account for 165K (44%), or one-half, of the global China Virus cases in real-time. As central Europe heals, the pandemic picture will brighten considerably. Austria is in great shape defeating the virus. Switzerland's daily new and active cases charts are rolling over to the downside more good news. Spain and Portugal remain fine with no sign of covid trouble. It is bazaar that central Europe is smacked silly with virus over the last couple months and yet Spain and Portugal motor along unimpacted to any great extent. This is a good assignment for a PhD candidate to study since the expectation would be for these 2 nations to be a mess right now, like central Europe a month ago, but they are not. The Netherlands requires monitoring but its daily cases are likely rolling over from tiny numbers. Belgium and Denmark are okay so the central Europe stuff is not spreading north. The German trouble can be chalked up to Oktoberfest beer parties that start in September. The pretty girls in their dirndl dresses are irresistible to young men in lederhosen. Perhaps Europeans did not do as much traveling during the August and early September holiday vacation season so the French partied on their own beaches and the French Riviera, ditto the Italians on their exquisite beaches. Ditto the Spaniards and Portuguese with some of the most beautiful beaches in the world. The French and Italians spread covid among their own populations probably for a multitude of reasons such as relaxing travel restrictions, reopening the economies and businesses, removing covid regulations and increased comingling during the holiday season. Also the degree of vaccination, effectiveness of the vaccines, degree of natural immunity, and proportion of elderly in the populations likely play a roll in the central Europe infections that do not spread elsewhere. Eggheads will have to figure it out after the pandemic dust settles but it is fascinating behavior since COVID-19 strains have all spread like wildfire over the last 34 months from country to country as if borders do not exist; not so in Europe right now. It is good news for Europe so no one is complaining.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/24/22, at 5:00 AM EST: In Asia, Taiwan remains on the mend with daily cases dropping like a rock at 38K per day on par with Italy. Taiwan's active cases curve is rolling over to begin forming the coveted bell shape to signal that the virus is being defeated. Taiwan's death rate climbs to 59 bodies per day. Deaths lag cases so the body count will likely remain elevated for a week or two more before it rolls over lower. Singapore is singing a happier tune reporting 6K cases for Saturday and the 7-day MA is trending lower at 7.4K cases per day; great news. Singapore is the XBB variant poster child and the globe wants this bug to go bye-bye. Remember, Singapore's cases tomorrow (Tuesday), that will be known on Thursday morning, will dictate the fate for the nation and the path ahead appears encouraging. Cases sneak higher in Malaysia so it and Indonesia need monitored going forward. The numbers are tiny and not a concern as yet but the trajectory of Malaysia's cases is concerning. Japan crosses the 22 million total COVID-19 daily cases milestone. On the bright side, Japan's daily cases are starting to roll over at 33K cases per day on par with Italy and Taiwan. Oh no. Chile reports 6K daily new cases for Saturday the most for the new infection wave. The 7-day MA trendline for Chile's daily cases is 5.2K cases per day ramping higher. Malaysia and Chile require a hairy eyeball going forward. Generally, the planet is looking good and on the path to the endemic phase.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/24/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports only 8.5K daily new cases for Saturday showing the single-digit's we want to see. Sunday's cases will likely be lower helping to pull the 7-day MA lower now at 23K cases per day the lowest since July 2021 over 15 months ago. Fantastic news. The US 7-day MA just took out the March 2022 lows comparing back to July 2021 which is a big deal technically. Now we see if America's daily new cases can continue marching lower towards 10K per day to announce the end of the pandemic and start of the endemic phase for covid (like seasonal flu). Many Americans have already forgotten about COVID-19 and consider it in the endemic phase already. The US covid death rate drops to 188 bodies per day teasing towards levels that are on par with the regular seasonal flu. Maine and New Hampshire continue dealing with new bumps higher in covid cases but nothing is getting out of control. Maine's cases may be rolling over and the big test for New Hampshire will be its cases on Wednesday. Vermont, Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey are on the watch list but all is fine on the eastern front. America is improving and there is no sign yet of a Fall infection wave. The week begins with wine and roses for Lady Liberty.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/24/22, at 7:00 AM EST: NBC reports that President Biden plans to take the new Fall booster shot today. The Whitehouse releases a statement; "The President will receive his updated COVID-19 vaccine and will deliver remarks on the ongoing fight against the virus." Will Sleepy Joe proudly announce that 1-1/2 times as many Americans have died from COVID-19 under his watch than King Donnie's (see chart above)? Probably not. Biden's last booster was 3/30/22 and his two bouts of COVID-19 illness, after receiving 4 of the mRNA shots, were 3 months ago. The shot-giver needs to be careful that the needle does not go all the way through that skinny flesh of Sleepy Joe's frail crepe arm. CDC Director Walensky has not said whether or not she is taking Paxlovid and there are no updates on her or the staff's covid tests.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/25/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports 216K daily new COVID-19 cases for Sunday another great number and the 7-day MA drops to 366K cases per day teasing one of the endemic criteria listed above (that Keystone pulled out of thin air because the people in charge do not offer any guidelines on when to say the pandemic is over and the endemic phase begins). The world's daily cases need to drop below 360K per day because that will take the comparisons (analysts will say "comp's") back to 2020 and surely signal that China Virus is becoming endemic on the planet. 1,175 earthlings die from covid on Sunday. It is great to see the global death rate reestablishing the downtrend as the COVID-19 trouble in central Europe and Taiwan subsides. Singapore reports 4.5K daily new cases for Sunday helping to continue the downtrend in cases now at 7.2K per day and dropping. The XBB variant may not be as big a deal as feared. Singapore's potential positive path ahead can be confirmed with today's daily cases number that will be known in 48 hours. Japan reports 30K cases for Sunday continuing to roll over from the 46K cases peak 1-1/2 weeks ago. Chile's daily new cases are about 6K per day the last 2 days coming off the 10/20/22 peak for the current infection wave at 6.4K daily new cases. The daily cases look like they want to roll over which is great news for South America, and the world, and this can be confirmed with the daily cases on 10/27/22 that will be known on 10/29/22. France is looking good with the active covid cases taking the first tick lower from 1.1 million to 1.0 million. Germany reports 74K daily new cases for Sunday the lowest in a month and dropping fast. Keep your fingers crossed as the COVID-19 endemic phase manifests around the world.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/25/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The US crosses the 1.093 million total COVID-19 deaths grim milestone. People yawn. Sleepy Joe rolls over in bed and goes back to sleep. Biden's birthday is 11/20/42 so he crosses the 80 milestone in 26 days. Age does not matter; health does. There are 90-year old's that are more active and alert than 60 or 70-year old's. Biden was elected to handle the pandemic and not touch anything else. Instead, the bozo has not managed the pandemic properly and instead stupidly starts a war against America's energy complex that creates the over 40-year highs in inflation. Are people in power that stupid or are they purposely trying to destroy the status quo? Maybe both? The US reports only 12.3K daily new cases for Sunday and Saturday's cases are bumped up to 16.6K cases. Great numbers but the single-digit's remain elusive. The 7-day MA trendline for US daily covid cases is down to 23K cases per day. 171 Americans are dying from China Virus each day as the Whitehouse and CDC sleep. The downtrend for the US covid death rate is reestablished due to deaths lagging cases and has nothing to do with incompetent pandemic management from bozo Biden and the gang that could not shoot straight. The United States remains on the mend from wave 7. All is quiet in the northeastern states currently. The CDC's Community Transmission map remains mostly green (low covid risk) and yellow (medium covid risk). The western half of Pennsylvania is shown as yellow now and most of New York is yellow and orange (high risk). Hospitals and the US states are becoming more lax about reporting daily covid cases. Some states have gone to a weekly reporting scheme. The map uses daily cases, hospital admissions and percent of bed capacity to paint the map green, yellow and orange (which should be green, yellow and red, to mimic a streetlight and better connect to the average person's psyche). Taking a look at the US hospital admissions, the downward trend started to stall, as pointed out in the chronology above, but to great delight the admissions are clearly dropping sharply lower again. The CDC data is slow and lags but the expectation is that some of the orange on the transmission map will turn yellow and some of the yellow will turn green but you have to wait a few days to read yesterday's CDC news. As Keystone often states, there is no better metric for forecasting infection waves than the daily new cases. The fancy community transmission map metrics and the wastewater data and map (that Keystone calls the glitter-dot map) are a lot of noise that keeps overpaid bureaucrats employed. The CDC needs a major overall of their data systems and charting applications using the KISS principle (Keep It Simple, Stupid). The transmission map is a valuable tool for future pandemics but it should be based on daily cases only and updated in near real-time with no more than a 48-hour lag, like the Worldometer data. This can be accomplished while firing one-half the staff. Keystone and the chronology routinely forecasts and identifies new infection waves around the world and within the United States before many of the authorities even know what is going on. By the time the officials realize they are in a new infection wave, the cases are sometimes already peaking which creates confusing communications. It's not rocket science and Keystone knows rocket science. The best infection wave analysis and forecasting is performed with daily new cases. Capiche?
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/25/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The Whitehouse announces that President Biden will receive the new booster vaccine, his fifth mRNA shot, today. It was originally thought he would receive the shot yesterday but there is no reason provided for the delay. Sleepy Joe will have quintuple vaccinations. He also received 2 Paxlovid treatments and has been infected with COVID-19 twice. Millions of Americans do not want to follow Biden's medical model. From a common sense practical viewpoint, would you? Talk to your doctor to find out the best path forward. The people most at risk for covid are the old and the fat. Heaven help you if you are old and fat. The president continues to pursue the vaccine-only strategy. Right on cue, the democrat-run press, in conjunction with the medical authorities such as the AMA, run stories denigrating ivermectin and other coronavirus treatments to drum up support for the Fall booster vaccinations that Americans are avoiding. The percentages keep flipping around as the message is massaged but there is only about a 5% to 7% uptake of the Fall booster shots by those eligible. That is a lot of people that are not seeing the merits of getting stuck again for the third, fourth or fifth time with the mRNA serum. The vast majority of people not wanting to take the COVID-19 vaccines are not anti-vaccine. To the contrary, they are pro-vaccine. They simply do not want to take the covid shots that do not prevent you from getting the illness or passing it along to others. Duh. The Whitehouse and CDC are going to pimp the new booster shots with all the fanfare, and fear-mongering, they can muster. Biden plans an all hands on deck approach. Fauci, Jha, Murthy, and the pharmacies such as Walgreens, CVS, Rite-Aid and Albertson's, are involved in the big rollout and marketing push for more shots. Grandpa Biden wants to force all Americans to eat their peas. More Americans each day are questioning the wisdom of taking the mRNA shots into your body, maybe 2 or 3 per year, that only provide limited protection for 2 to 5 months. Dr Walensky's booster shot did not help her at all, unless of course, if you repeat the mantra that the shots prevent serious illness and death. Do they? Nearly half the people in the hospital for covid are vaccinated. After one month, when the booster shot should be at maximum effectiveness, Walensky gets COVID-19. Not exactly the best selling point when hawking the Fall elixir from the back of the Whitehouse carnival wagon.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 10/25/22, at 2:00 PM EST: President Biden rolls up the sleeve on his frail arm to receive his fifth batch of mRNA into his body. The people surrounding Biden as he shoots-up include Jha, Vivek, Becerra and pharmacy heads. Interestingly, Dr Fauci is not in attendance when earlier communications said he would. He's probably on the phone with attorneys. Sleepy Joe tells everyone that the covid shot is like the flu shot and everyone needs to take one per year from here on out. "If you get it you're protected. If not you are putting others at risk." Hey dummie, the vaccine does not stop people from getting COVID-19 or transmitting it to others. Do you know that? Apparently not. Biden says, "Nearly ever death is preventable." This statement is laughable considering the dolt could do nothing to decrease America's death rate all year long. People want straight talk and he provides idiot talk. Biden says vaccines are free and widely distributed. He says a vaccine is available within 5 miles of home for 95% of Americans (this stat is likely exaggerated slightly). Biden says insurance companies are to provide 8 free covid tests per month to anyone that asks. Sleepy Joe asks for more money from Congress to handle the pandemic. The CDC data shows that only 8.4% of eligible Americans have taken the new booster shot (19 million of the 226 Americans eligible). Biden says covid cases are down by more than 80% compared to when he took office and proclaims, "Covid deaths are down nearly 90%." On cases, the president conveniently uses the extremely high number of cases during wave 6 that coincided with the 1/20/21 inauguration; 766K cases per day during the worst time of the pandemic. It is a factual statement but it is provided to trick people into thinking he did a good job handling the pandemic. He does not tell you that cases hit lows in March/April of this year and cases are actually higher on his watch over the last 7 months. Politicians only tell you what makes them look good so they can remain in power or pull their corrupt cronies into power. Biden lies like Trump. Same dealio with deaths that were at 3.3K per day when Biden took office at the peak of the heinous wave 6. Again, the statement is factual but he is purposely not telling you the real story. Biden and the CDC are incapable of reducing the covid death rate over the last 7 months that bumps through 300 to 600 dead Americans per day only now starting to trail off as wave 7 ends (no thanks to Biden's efforts; he mishandles the pandemic like Trump both playing political games rather than helping common people). He claims the most important thing you can do is get a covid shot. Why does he say that? Because Biden is committed to buying the doses off Big Pharma and few Americans are showing up to take the jabs. Reporters shout questions at Biden as he looks confused. The nurse helps him put his suit jacket back on his slightly hunched body and as usual, he exits the event quickly to avoid taking questions.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/25/22: The monkeypox outbreak continues with 6 people dead; 2 in New York City, 2 in Chicago, 1 in Maryland and the other in Nevada. They had other health problems. In an effort to drum up interest in the new covid booster shot, democrat-run media runs stories on television and in print saying that side effects after a COVID-19 vaccine are a good thing since it means the body is building a strong antibody response and the shots are effective. Comically, the Whitehouse sycophants and surrogates also say that if you do not have side effects after the vaccine that is good, too. It smacks of desperation that Biden is committed to buying a bunch of vaccines that few want. Now the HHS is running ads on television targeting underserved communities telling people to get vaccinated. It is a lazy approach and waste of money. Forget the ads. Take that money and pay a team of doctors and nurses to physically go into these communities in the inner cities, Appalachia and the homeless tent camps to directly interact with people. They won't do that since it takes work and effort. Studies from Harvard and Columbia universities report that the new booster shots are no better at protecting against COVID-19 than the original boosters. Well, isn't that a fine how do you do? Columbia professor Dr David Ho proclaims, "We see essentially no difference." The Whitehouse will be sure to tell social media to muzzle this information and replace it with a note that says multiple mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 10/26/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world reports 246K daily new cases for Monday another great number. The 7-day MA is down to 360K cases per day that is where cases will compare back to 2020 and indicate that COVID-19 is in the endemic phase. 1,170 earthlings die from covid on Monday. Singapore reports 3.6K daily new cases for Monday a welcome sight ahead of the big number for Tuesday. The peak for the infection wave thus far is 11.9K cases on 10/18/22 so Tuesday's cases need to be below 11.9K to show that Singapore has peaked and XBB will not pose as serious a threat as thought. Singapore looks good and that can be confirmed tomorrow morning. Bloomberg reports that China is locking down the Hanyang District in Wuhan home to 900K people. Non-essential businesses are shut down and people told to stay at home. Cases are rising so the barriers are being placed to isolate people. China remains a covid mess. The CCP will continue Xi's zero-covid strategy since it allows for easier control of the Chinese population and also trains the people to obey authority. Such is communism. The zero-covid policy disrupts the cruise industry with Carnival cancelling all departures from Asia. No ship for you! Carnival does not see a change coming to Xi's zero-covid policy so they are pulling out of the region. Foxconn (Hon Hai), the Apple gadget assembler in Zhengzhou, says a covid outbreak is occurring among employees but it is controllable and production remains relatively stable. Chile's daily new cases continue rising at 5.3K per day. Germany's active cases chart (bell-curve) takes its first tick lower from 1.77 million active covid cases down to 1.72 million. Europe is healing.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 10/26/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports only 14K cases for Monday. A higher number would be expected for a weekday. The 7-day MA is down to 21K cases per day teasing the teens. That smell in the air is not autumn leaves, nor is it teen spirit, it is the endemic breeze blowing steady. 155 Americans are dying from covid each day finally making some headway lower also indicating that the endemic phase is at hand. The northeastern states are fine with daily new cases not showing any sign of trouble as yet. Maine and New Hampshire are in the covid pickle barrel infected by the Canucks. Maine's peak in daily cases on 10/12/22 holds and the active cases are just rolling over to the downside. Maine is rebounding and beating down covid. New Hampshire's infection wave is also starting to roll over to the downside with a peak in cases last Wednesday, 10/19/22. Thus, the jury is out until the 10/26/22 cases are known on Friday morning but the expectation is that New Hampshire will be on the mend. America is looking bueno with the covid threat decreasing every day. A few more of the endemic guidelines listed above may be ticked-off before the next Article 93. No one is happier than Keystone since the chronology can finally be put to bed very soon. It was important to chronicle a once in 100-year pandemic as it occurs in real-time. Keystone had no intention to write over 1.2 million words on the COVID-19 pandemic, equivalent to about a dozen novels over the last 2-1/2 years, but the pandemic picked him and writer's write. No one is allowed revisionist history telling since all the gory details are in the Coronavirus Chronology. The other day Fauci said he had nothing to do with school closures. That won't fly, buddy. Of course you did. Maybe Article 94 or 95 will mark the end of the COVID-19 pandemic chronology as the shift into the endemic phase begins and we all learn to live with covid for the rest of our days.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 10/26/22, at 9:00 AM EST: A New York State judge orders that New York City must hire back the sanitation workers that were fired because they refused to be vaccinated and pay them retroactively. The state Supreme Court Justice Ralph Porzio decrees that NYC's vaccine mandate was arbitrary and capricious. The dirty, crime-ridden city is appealing the decision. The vaccine mandate garbage has seriously damaged the country. Biden unequivocally said there would never be a COVID-19 vaccine mandate until he announced the vaccine mandate. Liar. Common sense Porzio says vaccination should be encouraged but public employees should not be fired for noncompliance. We live in a world of control freaks nowadays. Good luck to all those garbagemen and women, better known as sanitation workers, that deserve their jobs and pay back due to the vaccine mandate discrimination. You will find that the majority of folks that are not vaccinated are actually pro-vaccine; they simply do not want to take the mRNA multiple COVID-19 shots. Perhaps they are waiting to see how much of an increase in heart attacks will occur over the next couple years?
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 10/26/22: The Whitehouse is warning and worrying about a 'tripledemic' this Fall of COVID-19, flu and RSV. Others worry about a 'twindemic' of covid and the flu. Hospitals complain about being spread to thin but that is due to their poor management and planning always placing profits above people. Such is the crony capitalism system. Dr Jha is cheerleading the new booster shots proclaiming that if you are boosted, the "risk of dying from covid is now close to zero." Jha decrees, "We are not powerless against it (covid)" citing vaccines as the solution. Jha pleads for more covid money from Congress "to replenish our medicine cabinet" but few lawmakers are interested. Singer Selena Gomez cancels a television appearance after testing positive for COVID-19. She was scheduled to get the new booster shot this week. Gomez tells the United States, "Get updated on your boosters." What does the entertainer know about the COVID-19 pandemic? Probably not much. The booster has ben available for 2 months. Why haven't you taken the shot already, young lady, since you cheerlead it? Over the last 1-1/2 years, she has been touting the Whitehouse line promoting vaccines because she thinks that will be good for her celebrity, popularity and making money. Now she is sick with covid.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/27/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports 431K daily new cases for Tuesday a higher number as we get into the meat of the week. The 7-day MA is down to 350K cases per day for the globe a great sight that is comparing back to 2020 levels. The world is in the best position at handling the China Virus pandemic in 2 long years. Fantastic news. That will make you smile, as Steve sings. The big day for Singapore is here when the Tuesday daily new cases are known. The daily cases must be below the peak last Tuesday at 11.9K cases to signal that the top is in and the downtrend is established. Singapore reports only 3K daily new cases for Tuesday a beautiful sight. The downtrend in daily cases is firmly established at 6.1K cases per day dropping like a rock. Even better, Singapore's active cases curve is dropping forming the coveted bell shape to indicate that the virus is being defeated. Singapore is the poster boy for the XBB variant which is more bark than bite. It is great news for Asia and the world. Indonesia reports 3K daily new cases for Tuesday the most in 5 weeks. Cases are taking tiny bumps higher in Malaysia and Indonesia but should not develop into anything worrisome.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/27/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The covid mess continues in red China. Daily cases are running over 1K per day this week. Since the communists do not count the infected people they send to isolation camps, and separate cases as with and without symptoms, and play games with the numbers, the cases are likely between 3K and 10K each day. The Foxconn (Hon Hai) Apple assembly plant in Zhengzhou remains isolated due to the zero-covid strategy. Workers are complaining about lack of food. The filthy CCP erases the negative messages on social internet posted by workers that are hungry and tired. Instead of censoring the workers, why not send them some food? The facility is under a 'closed-loop system' where employees remain at the plant working, sleeping and eating. Covid cases are appearing at pork, fruit and vegetable facilities and stores creating domestic supply disruptions. China's China Virus mess places nearly 30 major cities in full or partial lockdowns impacting over 220 million people. 16%, or 1 in 6, of the 1.4 billion Chinese people are currently impacted by Dictator Xi's zero-covid mess that is pushing the world into recession. The Big White's under the CCP's control, that don the white jumpsuits, drag away Chinese folks to the isolation camps that test positive for covid including all their close contacts. Most Chinese are stressed-out not knowing if today is the day they will be dragged away. Fear is used to control the Chinese folks. CBS media reports that China approves, and begins using, an inhalable vaccine in Shanghai manufactured by Cansino Biologics. An aerosol mist is sprayed into the mouth as the person holds their breath. It takes about 20 seconds.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/27/22, at 5:30 AM EST: Japan reports 48K daily new cases for Tuesday the most in a month as it continues to beat down the small but pesky infection wave. 11%, or 1 in 9, covid cases worldwide on Tuesday were in Japan. Europe continues improving. France reports 60K daily new cases for Tuesday lower than the 88K cases the prior Tuesday and lower than the 95K cases the Tuesday before that and the 7-day MA is down to 41K cases per day continuing lower. Great news although 14% of Tuesday's worldwide cases were in France, 22% in Germany, 11% in Italy, 9% in Taiwan and 6% in the US. About three-quarter's, or 75%, or 3 out of every 4 covid cases worldwide, are in only 6 nations; Japan, Taiwan, France, Germany, Italy and the United States. Aren't these the nations with robust vaccination participation? Chile's 7-day MA for daily new cases continues higher at 5.5K per day.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/27/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 27K daily new cases for Tuesday and the 7-day MA trendline is down to 27K cases per day. About 200 Americans continue dying each day from COVID-19 but at least that is better than 400 a day. The world is improving and gaining the upper hand on COVID-19. Europe is on the mend. Ditto Taiwan and Singapore. XBB will not be as big a threat as feared. The BQ variants are at play in Europe so they are also manageable and these three bugs are the most worrisome currently. The United States continues improving with no signs of a start of a Fall outbreak yet. For the first time in 34 months, the pandemic truly appears to be moving into the endemic phase worldwide. Remember the mantra; "Covid is not over until it is over everywhere." Well, it just may be ending everywhere.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 10/27/22: The Senate Committee on Health releases a 35-page detailed report stating that the COVID-19 pandemic "was most likely the result of a research-related incident." In other words, a leak from the Wuhan biolabs. The pandemic started a stone's throw away from the Wuhan Labs but there are *ssholes that actually think the origin of the virus started in nature from animal to human interaction. The corrupt people that proclaim that the lab leak theory is nonsense, and instead exalt the animal origin theory, are either directly or indirectly receiving money from communist China in the form of salaries, kickbacks and research grants. Such is the corrupt world, as George would explain. The republicans on the committee prepared the report that decrees, "The hypothesis of a natural zoonotic origin no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt, or the presumption of accuracy." In other words, do not believe the so-called scientists and doctors that tell you that COVID-19 is from animal origin. Democrat Committee Chair Patty Murray says the democrats on the committee are also putting together a report. Dysfunctional Washington, DC, cannot even work on a report together as the two corrupt political tribes always place their agendas ahead of what is good for the United States. For those believing in the animal origin theory, the scientists at the Wuhan Labs got sick with coronavirus in 2019. Open your eyes. Take off the corrupt blinders. Lax security at the Wuhan Labs likely led to the coronavirus leak to the outside world starting the once in a century pandemic. China owes reparations to the entire world for their heinous deed against humanity killing 6.59 human beings on Earth. The CCP, led by filthy Dictator Xi, are sick bastards. They don't care. Scumbag Xi maintains the zero-covid strategy in China. The CCP continues research on targeting specific human ethnicities with viruses. It does not take an Einstein to realize that a virus specifically targeting non-Asians could anoint communist China as the top-dog in the world in quick order. Never trust a communist; they will slit your throat in the middle of the night.
Note Added Friday Morning, 10/28/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports 408K daily new cases for Wednesday and the 7-day MA trendline is down to 344K cases per day. The worldwide picture brightens every day. The pandemic hurricane is subsiding and the milder endemic winds are taking over. 1,152 earthlings die from covid on hump day so more work needs done to bring the death rate lower. Deaths lag cases so hopefully the global death rate will be sub 1K bodies per day in about a week's time. Singapore's daily new cases jump to 9.6K so perhaps the Tuesday to Tuesday comparison needed one more day to play out. The 9.6K cases, although elevated, remain below the 11.9K peak on 10/11/22 so Singapore still looks good going forward. The 7-day MA is down to 5.8K cases per day. Singapore cases need monitored for Thursday and Friday but no surprises are expected. XBB may not want to go gentle into that good night, as Dylan the poet wrote. Japan reports 50K daily new cases having a difficult time shaking-off what may be the XBB bug at play. Oh no. South Korea has covid problems again. The 7-day MA ramps higher at over 30K cases per day. South Korea reports 41K cases for Wednesday. Perhaps the XBB variant is making mischief in Seoul. South Korea will have to be added to the bad country list. Despite the optimistic direction forward for the world, little pockets of covid trouble keep appearing. Case numbers, however, remain small for most countries experiencing mini outbreaks. France, Italy and Germany show active cases charts rolling over to the downside to begin forming the coveted bell shape so Europe remains on the mend. Chile reports 6.8K daily new cases for Wednesday the most for the current infection wave and highest in 2 months. Is the WHO and others in Chile or on the horn asking the scientists and doctors what is going on there? The world needs to know what variant/s are at play in Chile. Chop chop.
Note Added Friday Morning, 10/28/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The United States reports 34K covid cases for hump day and the 7-day MA is down to 29K cases per day. 220 Americans continue dying from COVID-19 every day the death rate is unable to remain sub 2 hundo. Lots of old folks are dying since their bodies cannot deal with covid on top of other multiple illnesses. Maine's daily cases continue lower off the 10/12/22 peak and the 7-day MA is down to only 214 cases per day small numbers. Nonetheless, a school in Maine closes for a day due to an outbreak of COVID-19, regular flu and RSV illnesses among staff and students; the so-called 'tripledemic'. Officials do not have data on the breakdown between each illness and it is likely difficult since the symptoms are basically the same for all three. Maine looks good from the COVID-19 perspective and its active covid cases curve take the first tick lower. Someone at that school must be walking around licking doorknobs. New Hampshire's daily cases on 10/26/22 are far below the peak days on 10/15/22 and 10/19/22 so improving conditions are expected. New Hampshire's active cases curve is rolling over lower so it and Maine may be removed from the bad US state list above that may go completely away again. The infections moving south from Canada are not making any headway into Vermont or Massachusetts. New York and New Jersey look great so the variants have not made the voyage across the Atlantic Ocean yet. Illinois sees a small bump in covid cases so it will have to be watched and may be added to the US state bad list that may not be going away after all. Pennsylvania, Texas, Florida and California are all fine. Ohio shows a bump in daily cases that will have to be watched. Wisconsin is hinting that a rise in daily cases is starting. Indiana is okay. America looks great from the covid perspective although a hairy eyeball will be maintained on Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio over the next few days. Maybe some of the small bumps in cases detected in these states are due to bussing migrants from the southern border into these communities? Just a thought.
Note Added Friday Morning, 10/28/22, at 7:00 AM EST: The CDC remains quiet about Director Walensky's COVID-19 illness. No word on her covid tests. No statement about taking Paxlovid. She wants everyone to trust her but does not want to inform the public on her first-hand experience and results after taking 4 mRNA shots into her body including the latest booster that was supposed to be at maximum effectiveness exactly when she got sick. Dr Walensky needs to release a public statement about her health status. She spoke remotely last evening, with a hoarse voice, telling people to get vaccinated but not disclaiming the status of her own COVID-19 illness. She blames America's ongoing death rate on people not getting vaccinated. Of course she does. For many Americans, especially the poor, disadvantaged and elderly, their dying words are, "Paxlovid? What's Paxlovid?" America's wealthy privileged class, that makes society's decisions, does not care about the covid death rate anymore since the rich are not the ones dying.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 10/29/22, at 3:00 AM EST: The world reports over 635 million total COVID-19 cases and over 6.59 million deaths. That is a lot of death and destruction to humanity. Thursday's daily new cases worldwide are 347K and the 7-day MA trendline is down to 346K cases per day comparing back to 2020. The future is bright. The global death rate, however, is not cooperating remaining elevated at 1.3K covid bodies per day. Singapore reports 6.2K cases for Thursday and the 7-day MA is down to 5.5K cases per day. Friday's cases need to be below 11.9K, which they should, and all of next week the daily cases need to remain below 9.6K cases (the Wednesday high), which they should, so Singapore should remain on the mend. The Tuesday and Wednesday cases are typically the highs for the week in Singapore so the cases on 11/1/22 and 11/2/22 are important. Japan continues to deal with about 40K cases per day finding it difficult to shake free from the virus. Taiwan is on the mend. South Korea begins a new infection wave averaging 32K cases per day ramping higher. Malaysia and Indonesia require monitoring due to daily cases increasing but remain small numbers. Indonesia is the more concerning one of the two and may follow Singapore's path. Hope not. Philippines are fine although the island nation crosses the 4 million total covid infections milestone. Boom. Chile reports 8.7K daily new cases for Thursday. Hello. Anybody home? Chile, you have a new infection wave in progress. The 7-day MA for daily cases for Chile ramps higher at 5.9K cases per day. Singapore and Taiwan are on the mend. Japan struggles. New infection waves are underway in South Korea and Chile.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 10/29/22, at 3:30 AM EST: As mentioned, the global covid death rate remains stubbornly high in the 1.1K to 1.4K bodies per day range. Taiwan deaths creep higher. The infection waves are subsiding in several nations so the global death rate may be well under 1K bodies per day next month. Seven countries account for almost 75%, three-quarters, 3 in 4, of the China Virus deaths worldwide; US 24%, Germany 15%, Italy 8%, Russia 7%, Taiwan 7%, Japan 6% and France 6%. 1 in 4 bodies dropping dead from covid in recent days are Americans and 1 in 7 global covid deaths are Germans.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 10/29/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The US crosses the 1.095 million covid deaths grim milestone. People yawn. No one cares. Bring out your dead. A lot of the US covid deaths are the elderly so there has to be many comorbidities involved in the deaths. The numbers will be need to be scrutinized once the pandemic ends. Are hospitals still reporting deaths as COVID-19 to receive extra money from the federal government? That was sad news about good ole Uncle Jedediah. He was 70 pounds overweight, a chain-smoker, had diabetes, lung cancer, a quadruple bypass, and would wheeze when he shuffled to the refrigerator for more beer, but would you believe that darn COVID-19 killed him? 231 Americans continue dying from China Virus day after day. The US reports 28K daily new cases for Thursday and the 7-day MA is at 30K cases per day. The US daily new cases are starting to favor a sideways move with a downward bias but a sharper down move is desired. Friday's cases may be a bit elevated but the numbers should be low from there into Tuesday. Perhaps single-digit case numbers will appear this weekend. If not, it may be hint that the Fall and winter covid infection period is at hand. No one wants that. This is the timing when the heinous wave 6 started last year (late October/early November) The tricky aspect nowadays is the tripledemic of covid, flu and RSV, since the symptoms are the same. Nurses and doctors are pulling their hair out trying to figure out the affliction so the proper treatment can proceed. Even more complicated is that a patient can have two, even all three, of the viruses at once. The northeastern states are calm not showing any signs of covid turmoil. Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio are under scrutiny since cases may be sneaking higher but these states are okay with no sign of covid trouble. It is unnerving to see the descent in US daily new cases softening a touch but it may be just a few-day lull. It would be nice to see single-digit cases for the US this weekend.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 10/29/22: The FDA, led by Dr Peter Marks, tries to discredit the research at Columbia and Harvard that says the new Fall booster shot is no more effective than the prior booster shots. Marks says the study is too small a sampling, which the universities agree, and instead wants to base his rosy cheerleading for the vaccine on the mice studies that showed effectiveness. Obviously, the Whitehouse, CDC, FDA, NIH and Big Pharma, lying in bed together, are unhappy with the weak uptake of the new booster vaccine and are attacking anyone that does not tout Biden's vaccine only strategy. No wonder credibility is shot with scientists and doctors. If scientists disagree on the efficacy of taking a mRNA shot, do not be surprised when people avoid the jabs. Dishonesty in science destroys all trust. The US vaccination rate is rolling over at about 550K shots per day and this data is nearly 2 weeks old. Obviously, the CDC holds back on the data which only serves to build more distrust. With the US vaccination trend moving lower, and the data old, the vax rate is likely far lower now. The Whitehouse has storage rooms full of covid vaccine that no one wants. On the variant front, BA5 is in retreat but the BQ1 and BQ11 bugs, that are loose in central Europe, are increasing in America. Europeans traveling to the United States are bringing the BQ's along in their luggage. As per the CDC variant proportions data, BA5 accounts for 50% of the total US infections and is continuing to fade away. BQ1 is 14%, BQ11 is 13%, BA46 is 10%, BF7 is 8%, BA526 is 3%, and the two BA275 strains, that Dr Fauci said looked really bad and troublesome a few weeks ago, remains at 3%. The two BQ strains are at 27% of the total cases. Percentages are tricky business and can be deceiving. Going back to July/August, when BA5 was at its heyday at about 95% of the total cases, that would equate to 95 cases out of 100. The BQ's were not on the radar a few weeks ago but were starting to wreak havoc in France, Germany and Italy. There may have been only 1 or 2 of the BQ cases at that time in the 100-case example. Fast forward to the present where the US cases have dropped about -80% off their peak from over 130K cases per day down to 27K cases per day. Thus, the total cases, in this simplified example, would be 20 cases and BA5 is now 50% or 10 of the 20 cases. The BQ's are 27% so that is 5 of the 20 cases and the other bugs are the remaining 5. This data matches the percentages reported but what you see is that the BQ cases simply increased from a couple to five over many weeks time (in this simplified example using 100 cases a few weeks ago as the basis). The 27% number for the BQ variants sounds scary, and it is seeing what happened in Europe, but the percentages are misleading. The actual numbers are what matters and this detailed data is hard to find. The US remains in good shape with wave 7 continuing to decrease but there is concern about the BQ variants creating a new Fall outbreak. Interestingly, in Europe, the virus has not spread to surrounding nations such as Spain and Portugal. Figure that one out. Also, the UK is fine which paints a brighter picture for the US. The UK would be expected to be in a bad outbreak now if it was to spread to America but the Brit's are okay with a manageable level of infections. In addition, Italy is a highly vaccinated population but it is smacked hard with covid infections and deaths. That's a mystery. Italy is an old population demographic-wise so that is going to create more sickness and death. The covid alphabet soup is complicated. Dr Hotez, at Texas Children's, calls the new bugs the "scrabble variants" referring to the B's, Q's and F's that are higher point values in the board game "Scrabble."
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/30/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports 313K covid cases for Friday and the 7-day MA is down to 334K cases per day. Beautiful. It will be fantastic to see a 2-handle. Global deaths linger at 1,267 covid bodies per day but should resume the downtrend in the days and weeks forward. China remains a covid mess. Hong Kong daily cases continue rising at 5.6K cases per day which must be monitored. South Korea's daily new cases are increasing at 33K per day. Japan is at 39K cases per day and rising. Singapore reports 5.2K daily new cases for Friday and the 7-day MA is dropping nicely at 5.2K cases per day. Singapore shows progress in defeating the XBB infection wave. Daily cases are expected to remain below 9.6K next Tuesday and Wednesday when the highest cases for the week are expected. Oh no. Malaysia reports 3.3K cases for Friday and the 7-day MA trendline is 2.4K cases per day ramping higher. Malaysia is starting a new infection wave. Is the XBB variant at play? Chile reports 7.1K cases for Friday and the 7-day MA ramps higher to 6K cases per day. The global hotspots are China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Chile. Taiwan and Singapore are on the mend and Indonesia is showing a flat profile with daily cases. South Korea, Malaysia and Chile are dealing with new infection waves starting to accelerate higher.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/30/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports only 24K daily new cases for Friday a great number with the 7-day MA down to 27K cases per day. As previously mentioned, US cases per day are dropping below the March lows and comparing back to July 2021. The BA5 bug is on its way out but BQ1 and BQ11 are the covid twins that want to become infamous in America. Hopefully, the high level of herd immunity, a combination of vaccination protection and natural immunity from prior infection, will continue holding the China Virus monster at bay. There is no sign of BQ trouble except for the proportional bump higher in the percentage of total cases reported by the CDC, but as explained above, the actual numbers of the individual variants are what matter not the percentages. Illinois reports 3.4K daily new cases not good. Are the infections coming from Canada? Is it Europeans traveling into and around Chicago? Are infected migrants illegally crossing the southern border being bussed into Illinois by federal and state governments? Virginia reports a small pop in cases of 1.5K for Friday. A lot of politicians live and work in Virginia so perhaps their hot air is infecting others. Kentucky reports a pop of 1.2K cases for Thursday. Missouri is okay after a mini-bump of cases over the last week that are already subsiding. A pop in cases occurs in New Mexico so perhaps Navajo Nation is experiencing a mini outbreak. The case numbers remain small for the states and are not impacting the overall downward path of wave 7. A hairy eyeball will have to be maintained on Illinois, Virginia, Kentucky and New Mexico. The CDC Community Transmission map is a lovely shade of green although some additional yellow spots appear. The northeast states are at medium or high infection risk but the daily new cases and charts show it as manageable and no biggie. Virginia is shown with some yellow, and Kentucky displays a bunch of yellow and a bit of orange, matching the daily cases data. Ditto New Mexico that shows yellow in the northwest of the state which is Navajo Nation. The northeast portion of Arizona is also a medium-risk yellow infection zone and this is Navajo Nation but the daily cases are no biggie in Arizona as yet. Navajo Nation officials are aware of the increasing infections and stress the three W's; wearing a fitted mask, washing you hands and watching your distance from others. Maintaining your distance from others is key for avoiding COVID-19 with other measures not particularly useful. If you are not around people, you will not get sick, however, that is not an option for common working stiffs. Washing hands and cleaning surfaces is helpful in avoiding the regular flu and RSV.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 10/30/22, at 6:00 AM EST: US COVID-19 hospital admissions are flatlining instead of dropping; not good. The over 70 years old crowd is smacked hard by covid. Officials need to be focused on helping the old and the fat as should have been the case during the entire pandemic instead of telling everyone of all ages to shut up and get vaccinated every few months. Common sense is as rare as hen's teeth these days. US hospitalizations are flatlining at about 20K covid patients. Using the dropdown menu, Illinois hospitalizations ramp higher over the last month from about 800 covid patients per day to 900 per day. The tripledemic adds a new twist to the confusion since the symptoms of COVID-19, regular flu and RSV are similar so who knows how many cases are being mischaracterized? The United States remains in good shape pushing the pandemic towards an endemic ending. The wildcard are the BQ bugs hiding in the bushes.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/31/22, at 5:00 AM EST: Happy Halloween. The world reports only 227K daily new cases for Saturday, 10/29/22, a fantastic number that has not been seen since August 2020!! The 7-day MA drops to 324K cases per day not seen since October 2020!! The pandemic is morphing into the endemic. The global death rate remain stuck at 1.2K covid bodies per day. Singapore is on the mend and the daily cases on Tuesday and Wednesday should provide further verification of the ongoing downtrend. Japan is at 40K cases per day not yet able to shake-off the new mini infection wave. It is probably the XBB bug making mischief. Malaysia's daily new cases increased to 2.6K per day ramping higher probably with the XBB variant at play. Malaysia crosses the 4.9 million total COVID-19 cases milestone. South Korea's new infection wave ramps higher at 34K cases per day. South Korea is reeling from a tragedy at a Halloween event attended by over 100K people that results in a panic and human stampede killing over 150 folks. Hong Kong continues reporting 5.5K cases per day. China's manufacturing sector goes into economic contraction due to the zero-covid strategy (lockdowns, factories idled, workers quarantined, supply problems, ports snarled, etc..). The CCP shuts down Shanghai Disneyland after an outbreak is discovered. No one is permitted to leave the park until they produce a negative covid test and the communists control when and how the tests are administered. A day of fun turns into a nightmare for Chinese folks that rush the gates of the park that are already locked tight. 30K people were locked in the park a year ago for 2 days and more due to an outbreak so there has to be many thousands locked-up inside Disneyland now. In a communist state, you kneel and obey, otherwise, you are tossed into prison or shot. This is how the CCP keeps the masses in line. Workers at the Foxconn facility (Apple's iPhone and gadget assembler) are escaping the imposed lockdown by climbing over fences and walking away from the factory. Apple may want to revise its sales estimates going forward.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/31/22, at 6:00 AM EST: France reports only 23K daily new cases for Saturday and Italy 27K cases. France, Italy and Germany will be removed from the bad country list since their daily new and active cases charts have rolled over and are heading lower. No wonder the world's daily new cases numbers are falling. Europe is on the mend. Spain and Portugal were never impacted by the serious infection waves in France, Italy and Germany. Keystone is not smart enough to know why; someone will have to explain this oddity. Daily new covid cases in the UK and Ireland remain tiny and not an issue. Remember all the negative news stories in the UK over the last few weeks warning of doom and gloom? They were wrong. It is good news for America since the trouble in Europe typically spreads across Europe, and the UK, and then hits the United States. Central Europe is recovering from covid and the virus did not spread to any great extent. The UK is fine so this predicts a happy Fall for the US rather than a new serious infection wave. China Virus is a tricky bug, however, always wanting to juke and jive, so a little more time needs to play out before the confetti can be tossed to welcome the transition from pandemic to the endemic phase. Chile's daily new cases are averaging 5.9K per day ramping higher. The peak day for cases thus far is 8.3K on Thursday, 10/27/22, so the cases on 11/3/22, to be known on 11/5/22, will dictate Chile's fate ahead.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/31/22, at 7:00 AM EST: The US reports only 9.8K daily new cases for Saturday. Come to Papa, baby. The sub 10K cases compare back to the summer of 2021 and then all the way back to the start of the pandemic in March 2020. The good news continues as the covid monster is smashed; it is a Monster Mash on Halloween. The 7-day MA for US daily cases is down to 24K cases per day; it will be nice to see it in the teens in the days ahead. US active covid cases drop to 1.35 million next stop a 1.2-handle. 192 Americans and more continue dying from COVID-19 day after day all year long as President Biden enjoys vacations at Rehoboth Beach. Oh no. New Jersey reports a spike to 3.9K daily new cases for Saturday; not good. It signals potential covid trouble ahead. New York cases remain steady and manageable. The good news is that surrounding states do not show a rise in cases as yet. New Jersey is the poster boy for a potential US Fall infection wave 8. Seven waves were enough so hopefully the spike in Joisey's cases will subside quickly. Uncle Sam is walking on covid eggshells for a few days watching New Jersey, Virginia, Kentucky and Illinois.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/31/22, at 10:00 AM EST: Clorox says people are not buying as many disinfection wipes and other cleaning and sanitizing products including bleach. Clorox expected the trend higher in the use of these products during the pandemic would continue. CLX stock drops -2% on the news. Considering the increased flu and RSV cases, with people sneezing and picking their noses, wiping down surfaces, and doorknobs, is a good idea. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan tests positive for COVID-19. He is fully vaccinated like a pincushion and it is the second time he has had COVID-19. Of course it is. Hogan repeats the standard mantra saying that he has 'mild symptoms and is isolating at home'.
Note Added Monday Morning, 10/31/22, at 11:00 AM EST: Medical talking heads are encouraging Americans to take the regular flu shot as soon as possible and are borrowing a phrase from the pro-vaccine folks that pimp the COVID-19 shots. The flu shot is well documented over the last few decades to provide from 20% to 60% effectiveness depending on how well the scientists forecast the strains. The new mantra is yeah, sure, the flu shot may only be 50% effective at best, but "it protects you from serious illness and death." Hmmm. That phrase sound familiar. Funny how no one described the regular flu shot that way for the last 30 years, until now.
