This chart makes you extremely comfortable after ditching long positions and only holding short positions. Honey, how about another daiquiri while we wait for the festivities? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios never signaled fear and panic for a tradeable bottom. You have not even seen any stock market selling occur as yet; wait until the real downside gets rolling. Feel free to keep ditching longs and building shorts going forward. The low put/call ratios signal that traders and investors remain relaxed and unworried that stocks will ever sell off again; exactly when a selloff begins.
A tradeable bottom will not appear until the CPC is above 1.20 and CPCE above 0.80. Halloween, the end of October, was the last tradeable bottom. Prepare for the bloodbath that will bring on the panic and fear, and then a tradeable bottom. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The gold miners went on a ride. As you remember, Keystone posted the GDXJ and GDX charts to call the bottom as March began. The positive divergence was in play on the daily chart above along with the falling wedge and oversold conditions, and lower band violation, so it was set up to pop. At the time of the call, however, the weekly chart was referenced and the jury was out with its possie d. The stubborn MACD was hinting that it wants to pull price down again on the weekly basis. The GDX and GDXJ long trades were in play but you did not want to marry the trade (fully commit) since the weekly chart was a bit cloudy due to the MACD. Thus, play it long for the pending rally on the daily and git outta Dodge after you make a few bucks.
That worked nicely so the trade was exited as price made its way to to the 50-day MA. It never got there so price really needs to show respect to the 50 and the upper band that has not been touched this year. Note the death cross (black circle) and at the same time the 20-day MA crossed. You never see a confluence like that where 3 moving averages cross at the same nod. Coolio. Since that is so rare, remember that 52 level it is likely important.
So the long trades in GDX and GDXJ work out and are exited. It would be expected for price to then slump for a few days, after it tops out, but it is surprising to see price drop back down so fast. It is due to the dollar move not the chart technicals. Price prints a lower low and the daily chart is good for a rally again as the possie d shows (green lines). The weekly chart is also agreeable to a multi-week rally, however, you have to have respect for the VST minor weakness in the MACD and money flow. The MACD red line could be called flat and it is possie d over the last year. Money flow is also positively diverged over the last year which carries clout despite having a little negative slump last week due to the dollar.
The weekly chars shows a congestion zone at 41-47 from last year so price is deciding if it wants to play in that sandbox for a little while and it is currently hinting at no as the answer as price is perched at the top of that range. If 41-42 fails, the lower trend line, 37-38 would be on the table. A down move like this would be due to dollar volatility. The set-up was conducive to asking GDXJ for another dance and of course she wanted to oblige. Thus, the 2-hour chart was referenced for a potential long entry and if you bring that up, you can see Thursday noon time that 3 candlesticks had printed at the lows and all the indicators were possie d so Keystone was buying GDXJ on Thursday afternoon and Friday.
The possie d on the 2-hour conspires with the possie d on the daily to create the pop on Friday. The daily chart wants more upside so it may follow a path similar to the rally a couple weeks ago. It was difficult to find any tickers desirable to play on the long side except for the gold miners. We shall see if lightning strikes twice for long GDXJ. Keystone is giving GDXJ a whirl on the long side but watching it closely. Will she dance rhythmically higher providing pleasure and joy, or, will she slap Keystone and toss a drink into his face? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday, 4/7/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Beautiful rocket launch. It stutter-stepped for one day after the above post and then handed out the money on the possie d launch. In 4 days, 43.30 runs to 48.33, a +12% pop. Calling tops and bottoms is a beautiful thing. Don't get greedy.
By K E Stone (Keystone)
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic rages on. The vaccine
versus variant race continues. Europe lost that race with a third wave underway.
The USA is fighting to avoid a fourth wave but Uncle Sam’s boots are sinking
into the COVID-19 quagmire.
Vaccine nationalism occurs with the UK and EU taking turns
slapping each other with a white glove. The spat involves the production,
safety, roll-out and distribution of the AstraZeneca vaccine and it is a bit
unfair to call it nationalism. In all, the globe is behaving itself and vaccine
diplomacy is winning out over vaccine nationalism. The vaccine availability
will increase substantially in the coming weeks and months so a lot of nation-to-nation
bickering should subside.
WHO complains that not enough vaccine is going to the poor
nations but that is their role. Individual countries are racing to vaccinate
their populations before the variants spread but the China Flu will not end
until the entire world is vaccinated. It is important to vaccinate and aid the
entire world to completely annihilate covid, however, economies are in such
shambles that the nations cannot help others until they get themselves on more
stable ground first. If you are not an extensively trained lifeguard, jumping
into the water to save a person drowning will result in both of you dead.
The coronavirus continues spreading infecting and sickening
folks around the world. The data and the charts tell the story for every
country and US state. America is walking on covid eggshells for the last 3 weeks
wondering if the pandemic will improve, or not. For this reason, we must begin
with the charts and US status.
For the US daily new cases chart above, the daily case
numbers and the slope and behavior of the 3 and 7-day MA’s are important. Right
off the get-go, you see yesterday’s daily new cases at 59K above both moving
averages which is a negative (by definition, if the cases are higher than the
moving averages, they will pull the trend lines higher which Is bad; we want
daily new cases to go to zero).
A moving average averages the data over a several-day period
removing the noise and providing a smooth line to identify trend. Yesterday is 59K
daily new cases. The 7-day MA is sloping
higher for 4 days running now at 58K above the 57K from the prior couple days
above the 56K days before that (the trend is higher). The 7-day MA was in the
35K-45K range last summer and it is now leveling off and starting to move
higher from 55K-57K which is not good (the daily new cases have never come down
to the levels seen last summer).
Watch to see if the daily new cases each day are above or
below the 7-day MA at 57K-58K; it’s really this simple. Sadly, yesterday’s data
is 59K. If the daily cases move above 57K, the path to covid misery awaits. If
the daily cases are below 57K-58K going forward, that is good, and the hope
remains that conditions will improve and the vaccinations are making a
difference.
As explained in Article 36, the 3-day MA is useful in
identifying the trend of lower highs and lower lows needed to claim victory over
covid (downtrend in daily new cases is intact). Things were going along okay
until 3 days ago when a higher high was printed for the 3-day MA. This means
the downtrend in US cases is officially over (as per the 3-day MA metric). You
will have to go to the Worldometer site and play with the moving average lines
so you can clearly see what is explained with the 3-day MA. The chart above
shows both moving averages and the daily data so it is difficult to see through
the spaghetti.
Watch for a lower low with the 3-day MA that would right the
ship. The 3-day got down to 47.5K on 3/15/21, a week ago, and is now down to
50K so see if it can take out the 47.5K low, if so, there is hope for America.
If not, and the 3-day MA begins moving higher again, watch to see if it makes
another higher high again, if so, it will be off to the races higher which is very
bad news. We are likely watching the conception of the US fourth wave in
real-time. The 3-day MA has flattened and never made it down to last summer’s
levels.
The crazy parties in Florida for spring break may create a superspreader event. We will know in a few days. The authorities have instituted curfews to deter the crowds. The revelers will return to their states or simply go elsewhere where the coronavirus rules are relaxed. It is a surreal time with the US likely beginning a fourth wave as everyone is out and about frolicking in the springtime weather, throwing caution to the wind, and comingling at pre-pandemic levels.
The US active cases chart remains a mystery. It stubbornly refuses
to drop lower to create the bell shape and ring-in the end to the China Flu.
The data and charts are currently deciding the path ahead for America into
summertime and beyond. If the daily new cases move above 57K-58K for a few
days, the active cases curve is going to start taking the red path to covid
Hell. This would increase hospitalizations into mid to late April when the
situation would start to slowly improve again.
The data is not tipping its hand as yet but it will in the
following days. The negative path forward appears more likely unless the US
strings together a bunch of sub 50K cases days in a row this week. Let’s hope
for that. It is doable but not expected.
The US daily deaths chart shows the 7-day MA moving lower
which is great. The US has learned a lot about treating covid over the last
year so the mortality rates would be expected to improve. Also, lots of
vulnerable elderly folks got wiped-out early on in the pandemic. Last summer,
the US 7-day MA was in the 700-800 deaths per day range. The 7-day MA is at 975
deaths and continues to trend sharply lower so it will be great news if the
deaths can come down below last summer’s range. The doctors stress that the key
goal of the vaccinations is to stop you from dying so hopefully the chart will
continue lower to zero.
The 7-day MA dropping below last summer’s numbers will prove
that the doctors and scientist, and the vaccines, are doing their jobs
defeating the virus. If the 7-day death curve begins curling higher again, it
will mean the doctors and vaccinations have failed, at least in the near-term.
The daily deaths are below the 7-day MA right now so this will continue pulling
the trend line lower so let’s give the doctors and scientists credit currently.
Of course, any daily deaths numbers above the 7-day MA at 975 (remember this
number changes slightly each day), will be extremely bad news and mean that the
variants are spinning out of control. 936 Americans perish due to covid
yesterday.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) does
a great job with the mortality data and charts. The IHME is at 543K American
deaths right now and predicts 596K deaths by 7/1/21. The IHME provides a potential
worst-case scenario of 659K deaths by 7/1/21 now that many states are reopening
and ignoring the coronavirus guidelines. This would not set up a happy
Independence Day. 675K Americans died during the Spanish Flu of 1918. The
worst-case scenario numbers with the China Flu may put us in the same ballpark
by Labor Day.
In a very positive development, nursing home deaths in the US are cut in half over the last couple months. The elderly are vaccinated and the deaths reported from the senior homes are dropping and pulling America's daily death numbers lower. You have to grab any sliver of positive news that you can find after dealing with an exhausting pandemic over the last year.
Medical folks are burned-out and some healthcare workers have PTSD due to the physical and mental demands, and stress, that COVID-19 has made on their lives. Thank you to all the docs, nurses, medics and healthcare workers.
The COVID Tracking Project stopped so the detailed reportingof the US coronavirus hospitalizations ends as the data potentially flattens and begins higher (bad). The chart stops at 3/7/21. The charts and data for the COVID Tracking Project were offered to the public by individuals taking away from their own time, interests and other projects to provide helpful information that may hasten the end of the pandemic. The Coronavirus Chronology articles are written with the same mindset.
The hospitalization data may be hard to assess going forward since there will be a lot of apples compared to oranges now that the key data set is toast. Hospitalizations have not yet dropped to last summer’s levels so starting upwards from a higher base is not good.
The vaccinations program continues ramping-up with the dosage rate at 2.5 million doses per day as per the New York Times and CDC vaccination data. 14% of Americans are fully vaccinated and 26% have at least one shot. About 170 million vaccine doses have been delivered and 131 million shots are administered.
Brazil’s daily new cases chart above reports 85K-91K daily cases per day over the last week the highest of the pandemic. President Bolsonaro continues to play down the problem. What is he doing? Where is he at? Bolsonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro’s popularity drops as the number of people infected rises.
India’s daily new cases chart above is at 48K new cases per
day teasing towards 50K per day. The second wave is clearly underway as the
chart goes parabolic.
The Philippines active cases chart above goes parabolic
testing the 7.5K cases per day level the highest of the pandemic. That is ugly.
The filthy CCP may be playing games infecting Philippines with a more variant
bug hoping that it will jump the short ocean trip north to Taiwan. Once Taiwan
is infected, the CCP will enter Taiwan under the guise of humanitarian aid for
the pandemic but in reality, will seize control following the Hong Kong roadmap
Stay vigilant Taiwan. The United States wants you to
succeed. The Taiwanese people are smart, positive, Westernized and easy to be
around. Taiwan does not want to soil itself with filthy communism. The Chinese
people on the mainland unfortunately have to live under the CCP’s rule and do
what they are told, otherwise, they receive a bullet in their heads. Taiwan
will likely be the world’s flash point as the year plays out.
Italy’s death chart is shown above with 551 deaths from
covid reported yesterday not seen since mid-January two months ago. More people
are headed to boot hill in the boot-shaped nation. Central and eastern Europe,
western Asia, Middle East and Southeast Asia (India) are hotspots. Ditto
Philippines in the Pacific and Brazil and a few other nations in South America.
Frankly, over one year into the pandemic, it appears the
same mess it has always been. The virus may choose to go away when it feels
like going away and not one minute sooner. Past viruses have flittered away on
their own after about 18 months which would be the May-July time frame.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 30.6 million. Brazil has 12.1 million cases leapfrogging India over
the last week at 11.7 million total cases. Next is Russia (4.5 million), France
(4.3), UK (4.3), Italy (3.4), Spain (3.2), Turkey (3.1), Germany (2.7),
Colombia (2.3), Argentina (2.3), Mexico (2.2), Poland (2.1), Iran (1.8), Ukraine
(1.6), South Africa (1.5), Czechia (1.5), Peru (1.5), Indonesia (1.5),
Netherlands (1.2), Chile (943K), Canada (942K), Romania (907K), Belgium (843K),
Israel (830K), Portugal (818K), Iraq (803K), Sweden (758K), Philippines (684K),
Pakistan (637K), Hungary (594K), Switzerland (586K) and Bangladesh (580K).
Serbia, Jordan and Austria are over 500K total covid cases rounding out 37
nations with this dubious distinction. It was 35 only 11 days ago so the total
cases are trending in a bad direction.
France worsens leapfrogging the UK taking over the fifth
position. Italy worsens jumping over top of Spain. Poland is getting worse.
Ukraine leapfrogs South Africa. Czechia jumps over Peru and Indonesia. Chile
worsens leapfrogging Canada. Belgium worsens leapfrogging Israel and Portugal.
The China Flu has infected 125 million people worldwide. The
pandemic, originating in Wuhan, China, has killed 2.75 million people on earth.
It is bioterrorism in real-time. Fortunately, 101 million global citizens have
recovered from coronavirus. 81% (101/125) of the people that become infected
with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame. This number increases by 1
percentage point adding to the 6 percentage points gain over the last month.
People around the world are recovering incrementally faster from
COVID-19. The medical community is more skilled at treating covid than one year
ago when the pandemic started and many treatments and vaccines are now
available. The 80% equates to 4 out of every 5 people that contract covid
around the world recover. 1 in 5 people have lingering effects from covid, or they
die.
Worldwide, 2.2% (2.75/125) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number is unfortunately sticky (remaining steady at this
level). 1 in every 45 people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world, will
die, and this number has not changed over the last six weeks. This is not good.
Generally speaking, around the world, the mortality rate from covid is at an
impasse and cannot be driven lower (for now).
1.6% (125/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 63 people on earth. This
number is not improving. Sadly, the variants are likely the reason for the
slight uptick in the global infection rate.
Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist
Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of its two secretive
bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit one lab;
the communists deny the existence of the second lab). China, the CCP, is
developing pathogens that target specific ethnic markers (enabling the murderous
acts of eliminating all non-Chinese ethnicities) and COVID-19 may be an
experiment gone amuck.
Bioterrorism is here to stay. Whoever develops a bug, and
vaccine, and inoculates their population with the vaccine, and then sends the
bug far and wide to all corners of the world, can own the earth.
In the United States, 30.6 million people are infected with
covid. 557K Americans are dead. 23 million Americans have recovered from covid.
This equates to 75% of US citizens recovering after becoming infected with COVID-19.
In other words, 3 out of every 4 Americans that contract the Wuhan Flu recover
which is a nice improvement from 2 out of every 3 citizens last year up to
about a month ago.
America’s recover rate is not as good as the world’s average
at 80% but it is getting close. This is likely in part due to the obesity
problem in America which leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as
diabetes, that place the person at a disadvantage once they catch covid.
Americans need to do push-ups. Push yourself up away from the dinner table! Also,
instead of walking around in Nike and Under Armour clothes, work out in them! 1
in 5 Americans have lingering effects from coronavirus, or they die.
In the US, 1.8% (557/30639) of the people infected with COVID-19
die and this number remains sticky like the global death number. Interestingly,
the recovery rates improve around the world and in the United States, however,
the mortality rates are not improving. The death rates sustain themselves day
after day week after week. The global and US death rates have been steady for
about a month. We need them to go down! The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 55 US
citizens that are infected with coronavirus will die.
Turn a deck of cards over on the kitchen table and mix them
around face down. If the doctor tells you that you have covid pick a card and
turn it over. If it is any card other than the Ace of Spades, you will recover from
the China Flu although there is a slight chance for some minor lingering
effects. If you turn over the black spaded ace, you will die. The death rate in
the US is better than the world’s average at 1 in 45 likely due to better
medical care.
9.4% (31/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 11 Americans have been
stricken with coronavirus a terrible number and stunning statistic. The minority
communities are impacted disproportionately since they tend to live in higher-populated
areas. There are also less job opportunities for minorities in the crony
capitalism system so the lack of money necessitates stretching the family budget
and consuming less healthy foods that exacerbate other health issues such as
obesity.
There are more people sick and dead from COVID-19 in the
minority communities as compared to a white upper class McMansion neighborhood.
A recent AP poll reports that 1 in 5 Americans have lost a loved one to
coronavirus. For Blacks and Hispanics, this worsens to 1 in 3 having lost a
loved one to covid.
The United States has 25% (30.6/125.1) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 4 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US accounts for 20% (557/2750) of the China Flu deaths in the
world. 1 in 5 people that die from COVID-19 in the world are in America.
As preventive measures to keep the immune system in tip-top
shape, consider taking zinc and vitamin D-3. Vitamins A and C are also helpful
and turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless of
coronavirus. As always, check with doc before mapping-out any vitamin and
supplement program.
Diet is also a key to battling coronavirus and the Asian
folks that prefer non-gluten food are surviving covid better. If you want the
best possible immune system, eat like an Asian; beans, squash, seaweed, rice,
sweet potatoes and fish. The nutrients and minerals will be pumping through
your body making you feel like a million dollars but alas, America likes gluten
foods, the more the merrier, pasta, bread, wheat and oat products, and beer,
cake, and even pie for their pie-holes. You are what you eat. It is obvious that
the Asian-style diet will keep the immune system in great shape but who has the
will power? Pass the potato chips.
The best virus prevention measure is to simply stay as far
away as possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’
and choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry
about contracting COVID-19.
The variants remain a major worry. The UK strain B117 is the
dominant variant currently wreaking havoc in the US. The South Africa variant
B1351 and Brazil P1 strain have also been detected in America. The US has its
own homegrown versions of the virus; a worrisome strain in New York called
B1526 and the California strain B1427/B1429.
The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but less-so
for the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain. It sounds like
the medical community is unsure how effective the vaccines will be against the
new strains. Denmark publishes a study on 3/17/21 that says people that have had COVID-19 are at a 1 in 5 chance of catching the new strains B117 and B1351. The genomic sequencing testing needed to identify the outbreaks of the variants in the US remains woefully inadequate.
This is why there is a major push all hands on deck approach
with vaccinations right now. It is a wild neck and neck covid horse race in
America between the vaccines and variants and the variants have a one nose lead
coming down the home stretch. If America is going to save the day, it has to
happen immediately. US daily new cases
must drop sharply below 47K per day and then under 30K per day as soon as
possible. Otherwise, the US will follow Europe down the covid rabbit hole.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Japan and South Korea are in this group. Also New
Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last couple months, no doubt as a result of the
medical community becoming better at fighting coronavirus over the last year,
this 28-day period has been reduced by 2 to 4 days. Nothing to get too excited
about but every little bit helps. In the lists below for countries and US
states, any of the projections that target 28 days may occur a tad bit sooner
say 2 or 3 days sooner. The Keystone Model will not change since it should remain
consistent for the pandemic data throughout the entire event, which drags on
and on, but keep that in mind. The peak in the active cases bell curve may
occur a day or three in front of the target date.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data as explained above.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 11 days like the prior article, and more data
and information become available, to push the story forward.
This is Article 37 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This thirty-seventh article
is published on Wednesday, 3/24/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward.
All 37 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon called
the Coronavirus Chronology; the pandemic bible. That is, if the virus ever ends.
The COVID-19 pandemic information and raw human emotion is recorded in
real-time. The last three articles are linked below if you want to come up to
speed with the pandemic saga over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. The COVIDTracking Project is another excellent source of information and data available
for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail although the
project has halted its data collection this month.
The worst countries with coronavirus outbreaks are listed
below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks in active
cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases
curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The pandemic is not
under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls over forming the
bell shape. The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest
since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases occurring in
real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to roll over.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan finally
beat back their third waves but the news is not all good. Japan’s daily new
cases are on the rise again. Japan is refunding all the foreign ticket sales
for the Olympics and canceling the volunteer needs so the fan participation
will be small.
All of the countries below worsened over the last 11 days
except Peru that is no longer on the list since its active cases chart has
rolled lower to start forming the bell shape. Brazil’s data is horrible with
daily cases and deaths spiking wildly higher. Brazilians are losing confidence
in President Bolsonaro who has played down the virus from day one but calls an
emergency meeting to address coronavirus. He promises to increase the
vaccination program so everyone can resume “normal life.”
The deaths in Brazil are out of hand due to the lack of
oxygen. Hospitals have depleted supplies so if you get covid in Brazil, and
find breathing difficult, and you manage to stagger into the nearest clinic,
they do not have oxygen to help you, thus, it is likely you will die. Uruguay
sees a huge spike higher in daily cases. Columbia is worsening and will likely
be added to the list below next time. Paraguay is bad with the deaths hitting a
record level.
The United States remains in decision mode and in the week
ahead will choose a road forward. Canada’s daily new cases spike to 4.9K the
highest of this new third wave that begins for our friends up north. The
Canucks must be doing a lot of comingling to keep warm. Canada is added to the
list below and the hospitals will experience a heightened coronavirus patient
load into mid-April. Mexico is in a sideways funk like the US.
In Africa, Gabon worsens. Ditto Togo that displays an active
cases curve gone parabolic. Guinea is sad with 315 daily new cases 3 days ago
the highest ever and the testing is not adequate in Africa so cases are orders
of magnitude higher. Ethiopia is hurting and deaths are highly elevated.
Article 36 highlights the interesting connection between
African Swine Flu (ASF) and COVID-19. In nearly every case, outbreaks in ASF
leading to the culling of pig herds, or hogs simply killing over, occurs in the
same regions that are covid hotspots. This is very obvious in Africa so perhaps
there are infected fleas on the backs of the pigs as they are transported via
ocean-going ship? This is left to the epidemiologists to figure out. Very
recently, an outbreak of ASF occurs and Togo is also in the middle of a
coronavirus wave. What is going on with pigs, African Swine Flu and China Flu?
There has to be a connection.
India is in horrible shape with daily cases spiking above
47K. India’s daily cases and active cases charts are going parabolic. Pakistan
is added to the bad list below with a third wave underway. There must be a lot
of Indian boys comingling with Pakistani girls, and Pakistani boys with Indian
girls, despite their bickering nations always remaining confrontational with
one another. Bangladesh daily new cases skyrocket higher.
The Philippines is in horrendous shape the worst nation in
the Pacific. The close proximity to Taiwan is worrisome because the out-of-control
outbreak in the Philippines may jump north across the ocean waters (Luzon Strait) to Taiwan. If the island nation (that does not want to be under the mainland’s
rule) becomes infected, China will invade under the guise of a
humanitarian effort like the filthy CCP did to Hong Kong. The Philippines needs to ask the filthy CCP if they are getting played (via more infections) and used as a way to infect nearby Taiwan which is the most successful nation in handling the outbreak. The Philippines
should watch who they decide to climb into bed with since that commie red rose
has thorns.
Bloomberg media says China is offering Paraguay vaccines but
only if they cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Do you see what the filthy CCP
does behind the scenes creating unrest and chaos around the world? China will
say the people making such offers have no connection to the government but that
is just more lies. Hong Kong mistrusts the Chinese vaccines, especially after
the 'one country, two systems' democracy was crushed by the communist mainland. Hong Kong is now just another communist city under complete CCP control.
Chinese vaccine vials are showing up at Hong Kong dispensing locations with damaged packaging, loose vial caps and stains on bottles. People are balking at taking the shot.
France is in bad shape. Moldova deaths are highly elevated. Ukraine
is beaten and battered with covid month after month. Poland remains in trouble.
Hungary is in terrible shape. Turkey’s problems are accelerating daily while
its economy is in turmoil over government missteps. Switzerland is worsening
again and will likely be added to the bad list below next time. Russia’s daily
new cases chart is flattening out which is a bad thing so the Ruskies may be
faced with troubles next month.
Qatar is playing a sad song on the guitar as the cases ramp
wildly higher. Ditto Jordan. Iraq is in bad shape with cases escalating. Iran
is trying to right the ship but the jury is out. Oman is bad.
You hate to be Gloomy Gus or Debbie Downer, but the global
data does not paint a rosy picture. The bad part is that the majority of the
nations listed below are in the midst of the acceleration higher in cases.
There are other nations in bad shape but the list has to be limited to keep it
within reason.
The covid hotspots are central and eastern Europe, the
Middle East, Southeast Asia (India), Philippines and South America (Brazil). On
a world map, it is easy to see the swath of covid travel from the UK, and then
from Spain and Portugal, to central and eastern Europe, Ukraine, Turkey, then
continuing along to Iraq, Iran, Oman, Kuwait, Pakistan and India. It knocked
down all countries in its way like a bowling ball knocking down pins. Humans
think they are smart and powerful and yet a virus particle, that cannot even be
seen by the naked eye, can bring these ego’s to their knees.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreaks;
Egypt (Second Wave) (data is
suspect perhaps underreporting daily new cases)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases creeping higher)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever) (spike 3/21/21)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
3/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever; data is limited)
3/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of fourth wave)
3/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/5/21 New Case Peak Date
3/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 3/13/21 give it a couple more days to
make sure)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 3/19/21 give it a couple more days)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/16/21 New Case Peak Date
3/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may be peaking now)
3/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
3/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/17/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
4/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of second wave
are 3/16 and 3/17/21)
4/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
3/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date (third
highest new cases ever)
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
3/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
3/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/20/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave)
4/17/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
3/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of fourth wave)
4/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
4/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases are greatly elevated)
4/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of third wave)
4/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
4/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
4/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of this new third wave)
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Next focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The vaccination program is helping. Folks following masking
and social distancing guidelines are also helping. The warmer weather will also
help defeat the virus.
However, on the downside, the variants are starting to bite,
states are reopening their economies super fast, people are partying on
holidays and spring break, vaccine hesitancy is a problem and pandemic fatigue
is causing folks to throw caution to the wind. The US daily new cases data will
point the way forward as explained above.
Here are the states that continue experiencing covid issues
but as mentioned previously, many of these states may be withholding daily case
data (not necessarily with any nefarious intent it could simply be due to
delays due to overworked staffs) since the numbers do not add up. There has
been about 10 states that have resolved this issue and in every single case the
daily new case numbers ramp higher confirming the upward direction in the
active cases curve that never wavered.
Kentucky (data is suspect;
probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever; recent cases starting to elevate)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases starting to creep higher)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
3/17/21 New Case Peak Date
4/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/18/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases becoming elevated)
4/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
4/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
4/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/20/21 New Case Peak Date
4/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases in 6 weeks)
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases in a month)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/23/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the fourth wave and in over 2 months)
4/20/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
3/23/21 New Case Peak Date (huge
spike higher in daily cases most in a month)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Several more states above that had problematic data are
resolving the discrepancies as expected. If the active cases curve is moving
higher and higher, it is impossible for the daily new cases to not be moving
higher. The states that display this problem are resolving one by one with the
daily cases moving higher. Never try to fool a mathematician; there is honesty
in numbers. The higher daily new cases are now in agreement with the
upward-sloping active cases curves that never faltered.
The easy, and perhaps unfair, conclusion would be that there
were about a dozen states purposely underreporting daily cases so the
governors, mayors, or other politicians, or public figures, would look good.
But let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say the states are simply
catching-up with their data.
If there is dirty reporting of covid numbers, it will come
out in the wash. Casanova Cuomo in New York is going down with the covid ship
due to the omission of thousands of nursing home deaths in reports. The
auditors are numbers people and they will find out who may have been violating
the data and they will make it right.
Washington state, Michigan, New Hampshire, Connecticut, West
Virginia, Maryland, Maine, Hawaii Virginia and Rhode Island are the most
troubling states right now. This article is going to publication shortly but if
not, a West Virginia chart would be helpful. What happened in West Virginny?
John Denver sings about “almost heaven West Virginia” and “country roads, take
me home, to the place, I belong, West Virginia.”
A third wave has started in West Virginia but they have the
great vaccination program. What gives? 30 West Virginians died on Friday a big
spike higher. The conclusion from the data, at this juncture, is extremely
troublesome and disturbing. If West Virginia is the leading state in providing
vaccinations, but a third wave is now beginning to ramp higher, and deaths
spike, the obvious conclusion is that the vaccine/s do not work against
whatever variant is attacking West Virginia.
Keystone is a chemist and chemical engineer which are only a
couple of many hats, but his knowledge of epidemiology you can fit on the head
of a pin. The smart medical folks will have to focus on West Virginia and see
what conclusions they can develop. West Virginia is probably the key state to
watch to determine the efficacy of vaccines against the new variants.
New Jersey daily new cases jump above 4.9K painting a bad
picture ahead but the active cases curve that has not yet curled higher. It
likely will and New Jersey will probably be added to the bad list above in the
next article. Ditto New York, Florida and Georgia with the same configuration.
The spring break partiers are drinking and having fun in Florida perhaps spreading
B117.
California’s charts are moving sideways like the overall US
and that makes sense since the highly-populated Golden State is a big chunk of
the data.
Texas is hanging in there which is surprising considering
Biden’s border crisis. Ditto Arizona and New Mexico two more southern border
towns. It is very surprising that the data is not bad. The numbers in Arizona,
New Mexico, Texas and California are going to be scrutinized going forward.
Surely President Biden would not want the data to be reported as better than it
actually is, or bad data swept under the rug, considering the border crisis
problem (Biden refuses to call his southern border immigration mess a crisis),
would he?
Illinois’s daily new cases are starting to edge higher and
it will not be surprising to see it on the bad list above next time. Ditto Ohio,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Idaho,
South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska, Delaware, Massachusetts and
Vermont. The northeast US is a trouble spot as well as the northern Midwest.
Could the virus be spreading down from Michigan to the states below?
Louisiana and Oklahoma look shaky give them a week or two.
Ditto Iowa. Montana shows two ugly spikes higher in daily new cases over the
last week. Washington, DC, remains in bad shape.
There are 12 bad states in the list above that have active
cases curves trending higher (Washington, Michigan, etc..). These are the worst
covid states; the Dirty Dozen. Then there is the group of 4 states (New Jersey,
New York, Florida, Georgia) that display rising daily cases but the active
cases curves have not yet curled higher to confirm the new waves beginning. The
new waves for these states will probably be confirmed in the week ahead.
Next is the group of 16 states (Illinois, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, etc…) that display flat or slightly rising daily cases and at the
same time the active cases curves are on the verge of curling higher (bad). These
states will probably confirm new waves underway in the week or two ahead.
12+4+16=32 so there are 18 states that are hanging in there with both the daily
new cases and active cases curves trending lower. 12 states show rising active
cases curves which is bad but conceivably, 32 states will have rising active
cases curves in a week or two. This is not good.
The vaccine nationalism, vaccine diplomacy, vaccine
hesitancy (skepticism), vaccine inequality (or equality or equity) and vaccine passport memes are touted each day.
Have you noticed that lots of people like to say meme these days because they
think it makes them sound cool and sophisticated?
The EU has held back vaccine shipments intended for
Australia but the Aussies have taken it in stride since the pandemic is under
control better in the land down under. The EU threatens to hold back other
vaccine shipments and remains at loggerheads with the UK while complaining that
it receives a bad rap for being nationalistic.
Vaccine diplomacy continues with the COVAX plan in
association with WHO that provides vaccinations to third world countries. The
entire world needs to be rid of COVID-19 to prevent further mutations
developing. Diplomacy should outdistance nationalism since the world will
probably be knee-deep in vaccines in 2 or 3 months also considering that many
people do not plan on taking the shot.
The vaccine hesitancy chatter is getting louder with several
mouths flapping at once. The AstraZeneca debacle damages public confidence and
the non-stop drip of negative issues each day destroys confidence. Some medical
professionals are sick for 3 to 5 days after receiving the second shot of the
Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
Generally, 40% of healthcare workers do not plan to take the
vaccine unless forced to for their job. The J&J vaccine has production
issues when wine and roses were promised (although as of this late writing
there may be new contracts in place that can secure a steady supply of raw
materials, fillers and packaging). The Chinese vaccine shows up in Hong Kong
with damaged packaging like someone was tampering with the vaccines.
Things are getting dicey out there and the vaccine hesitant
folks have lots of reasons to be, hesitant. The US states are dropping
vaccination age requirements faster than pants dropping on a wedding night,
which hints that the hesitancy is real. Vaccination sites want to keep busy and
apparently to do so, they must lower the age requirements. This could also be
due to overabundant vaccine supplies but that is not occurring right now.
On the vaccine inequality front, WHO head Ghebreyesus
proclaims “moral outrage” because rich countries receive more vaccine than poor
countries. You can always count on the general for a theatrical phrase or
words. You know, the wealthier country probably has nicer cars, too. So far, in
the US, of the people that are fully vaccinated, 66% are white folks (mainly
women) and blacks, Latino and Asian Americans account for 5% to 10% of the
vaccinations in each of the 3 groups. The data is all over the map.
Many nurses, doctors and medics are white so it makes sense
that a lot of them receive vaccinations up front. Also, stereotypically, the
white women between 25 years old and 70, Keystone is digging a deeper hole for
himself the more that is written, are typically very good on the computer and
internet and know how to track things down, and search multiple websites, and
sign up for vaccines easily. Poor folks do not even have access to a computer.
People will have to be patient with the vaccine rollout and
it looks like they are. Everyone in America that wants to be vaccinated will
likely be able to do so by May. The minorities and disadvantaged folks are told
to patiently wait and they are used to being told that over many decades.
The vaccine passport issue is a regular talking point each day. Airlines, hotels, restaurants, travel and leisure companies and concert and event promoters want the economies to reopen and they see vaccine passports as the vehicle to get the job done. The elite privileged class ran to get their vaccines and they do a lot of international traveling so most will be in the vaccine passport camp; they will wear the Mark of the Beast proudly allowing their own human flesh and body to be controlled by others.
Vaccine passports are the same as asking for your papers at
European border crossings during WW II. “Your papers please.” Stupid people
welcome such mistakes. In a few months, humans will dopily take on the mark and
proudly display their vaccine papers to any official asking. Others refusing to
take on the mark will sink into the shadows and drop out of the economy.
This just in. The Miami Heat NBA (National Basketball Association) team announces plans for separate vaccinated-people sections in the seats. Mask and social distancing is still required. Vaccinated people will also have separate food vendors.
The class separation between rich and poor in America, due to the Federal Reserve's obscene money-printing, is the widest in over five decades. The vaccinations of the wealthy versus the poor will only serve to further divide the country and probably bring on the pending class war sooner. America's middle class is decimated over the last five decades as the wealthy sent jobs overseas to boost profits and stock prices. America has become the land of the have's and have not's; the New Gilded Age is upon us.
The Wall Street analysts tout a huge economic recovery
beginning due to the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. They don’t know.
The elite privileged class that controls the rigged crony capitalism system,
and the upper middle-class sycophants that service the ultra-wealthy, will be
spending money once the economy reopens in force but after a few months it will
likely peter away. The sports teams may be surprised at how the attendance will
not bounce back as much as expected. The huddled masses in America will likely
use a lot of the stimulus money to pay down debt, or save, or make car or house
repairs. It may not be the economic panacea that President “Border” Biden desires.
According to an Axios report, 2,900 migrants test positive
for COVID-19 in recent days. Unaccompanied children are crossing the southern
border at an alarming rate. It is hard not to expect a rise in coronavirus
cases in the southern states going forward.
Stormy weather and even tornados may hit portions of Mississippi,
Alabama, Tennessee, Texas and Arkansas so a long night is ahead. The vaccine
distribution will be hampered for a day or so in the south.
CDC Director Walensky remains concerned about a potential fourth wave, as she should be from this report, and asks Americans to continue masking-up and social distance and remain vigilant. Some people may not get the message since they are too busy partying. Walensky says the B117 variant is the main culprit causing the third wave in Europe. The CDC warns about Americans traveling in too large numbers and the economy opening up too rapidly.
The CDC maintains 'no sailing' guidelines due to covid so the cruise lines tank in the stock market, Carnival, CCL, drops -3%. Event, cinema, theater and food and beverage stocks also drop since people will not be returning to the venues anytime soon due to ongoing China Flu restrictions. AMC Entertainment, AMC, crashes -15%.
German Chancellor Merkel backpedals on the new lockdown rules. Merkel apologizes and reverses the lockdown measures. It must be a German political decision. Merkel was the leader of the Free World about 6 years ago but now her political career is in shambles. People just do not know when to hang it up.
As was previously explained, if Germany was on an island
they would probably be in far better shape like the UK due to their lockdown
measures but all their neighbors are not as disciplined. France, Denmark,
Poland, Austria, Switzerland, and Poland, Ukraine, encircle Germany and it was
too much to think the Deutschland could escape from being surrounded by covid. Perhaps
Merkel came to that realization.
Also, the protests are out of control in Germany and
announcing that grocery stores would be closed was a bridge too far. That was
incompetency on Merkel’s part and likely enflamed the masses. Considering the
protests and riots, perhaps Merkel also figured it is better for a few million
people to get sick with covid no matter what their outcomes, than the
anti-lockdown protestors burning down Germany!
The Asian hate rhetoric from liberal-leaning news channels
is subsiding. The democrat party and left-leaning media tried to make an Asian
massage parlor shooting into a hate crime when it was a sick deranged nutcase
with a sex addiction. This type of fake news only serves to ruin the message
that is mainly hurtful language directed at Asian-Americans. Any of you Asian
folks experiencing that verbal abuse needs to move away from the racist cities
of Atlanta, New York and San Francisco, where the bulk of these events occur due
to the high populations of Asians, and go to anywhere else in America where this is
generally not happening.
The greatest number of physical incidents against Asians are
actually committed by blacks not whites even though whites hugely outnumber
blacks in the population. These are facts people conveniently ignore. The data
is not mentioned to diss my black brotha’s at all, Keystone is cool with his
peeps, but simply to highlight how the news is telling you lies and
manipulating your mind each day, on both sides. Your only sanctuary from the
societal sickness is Keystone.
One lady on television kept wildly repeating, “Kung Flu!
Kung Flu!” to incite emotion and rile people up blaming the words for all the Asian
hate (that many people do not see at all only the folks living in major cities). Kung Flu was only a joke by comedians at the start of the pandemic and then it was
said by former President Trump so of course the left hates it in every way
possible. Many of you would not know Kung Fu if it bit you on your nose. That
lady presents Kung Fu in a negative light and shame on her since she is of
Asian heritage.
In truth, the young men and boys in the 1970’s idolized KwaiChang Caine (David Carradine) in Kung Fu. It is great memories. The boys would imitate his kicks and martial arts and were impressed at how he was wise, calm
and could beat anyone up all at the same time. We wanted to be Kwai Chang Caine and
some of us did go on to study martial arts. The martial arts craze hit
mainstream in America back then, it was the birth of the movement where now you see a karate, or other martial arts, school on every corner, thanks to the great Bruce Lee that sadly died
way too young. Bruce would teach all you jackass idiots about race. Read about his life.
As young kids and men, we would test each other to “snatch the pebble from my hand” because only then would you be a master Shaolin monk and no longer referred to as a young naïve “Grasshopper.” What fantastic days. The Kung Flu saying is a joke nothing more nothing less; it is funny. Get over it. It is not thought of in a negative light. Fond memories of the old Kung Fu television show come to mind and Kung Flu is simply a play on words. You hear it and move on unless you are a newscaster or politician in the business of race-baiting.
The only people thinking grotesque racist thoughts against Asians due to the China Flu are the news channels spewing all the hate creating the imagery. Of course there are nutcases that will pop up; this is standard fare in a free society. America is not racist and is not making fun of anyone when saying Kung Flu. If someone touts this sick narrative, that only promotes negativity in society, stay away from them. Kung Fu (Kwai Chang Caine) was our hero as kids and young people but yet another thing is made dirty and filthy, and dragged through the mud, and now it is garbage.
(As an aside concerning Kung Fu, and snatching the pebble from my hand, there is a trick to it. You can mesmerize your friends, kids or coworkers by snatching the pebble while they cannot. Place a pebble, or marble, in the center of your
outstretched palm. Tell them to snatch the pebble from your hand. They will
have difficulty. Now have them hold the pebble in their outstretched palm. The trick to it
is that when you go to snatch the pebble, and your palm is outstretched over top of the hand that is holding the pebble, curl your fingertips slightly at the tips and quickly hit the
fleshy part of the palm holding the pebble as the first move. This quick action
will pop the pebble up to make it easier to snatch. The move is in a millisecond so people will not even realize you are hitting the back of their palm to pop the pebble into the air for snatching. They will try again and be frustrated that they cannot snatch the pebble. They are Grasshoppers. Study the martial arts and ancient religions my friends, maybe someday you too will learn some of the Shaolin ways.)
The US daily new cases data is key this week as it has been
the last couple weeks. The trend, up or down, will reveal itself, and sadly, it
is hinting that the trend is up as in more daily new cases and more active
cases. If this is verified, it will be a giant dump landing in everyone’s
morning Cheerio’s. The Friday data is typically the largest numbers so keep that
in mind as America decides the path ahead for the year over the coming days or
week or so.
Watch those dozen states in the list above closely since
they are troubled. Something is going on in West Virginia. Also watch those big
boys with the higher daily cases but the active cases curves did not quite turn
higher yet; New Jersey, New York, Florida and Georgia.
Uncle Sam is happily taking the covid trash out to the curb
but just now feels his foot slipping out from under him due to the thick layer
of ice on the sloped driveway. Uncle Sam may fall with the infectious
coronavirus garbage landing on top of him once again. The US fourth coronavirus
wave begins if Sam’s butt hits the concrete.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 1:30 AM EST: AstraZeneca revises its trial numbers saying the vaccine is 76% effective versus 79% previously stated. The change is no big deal but the ongoing series of missteps by AstraZeneca only serves to reinforce the thinking of those avoiding vaccination. Medical professionals are disheartened since the AstraZeneca is a fine vaccine that will help the world alleviate COVID-19. The negative publicity is self-inflicted. Pfizer is reporting success with a pill for treating covid but early drug trials are only beginning.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 2:00 AM EST: Former Whitehouse Operation Warp Speed Chief Moncef Slaoui, under former President Trump, joined the board of GlaxoSmithKline. GSK fires Slaoui saying his behavior with coworkers and employees is "wholly unacceptable." The CEO says sexual harassment is strictly prohibited. Slaoui hangs his head in shame.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 2:30 AM EST: Oh-no. US daily new cases are 67K yesterday. This is 9K above the 7-day MA trend line at 58K. It is bad news. The 3-day MA is moving higher to 57.4K so it will be interesting to see if it takes out the prior high at 64.5K on 3/19/21. We will know in a couple days. A second higher high in the 3-day MA trend line would guarantee that a fourth wave is underway in the United States. The 7-day MA trend line is clearly curling higher (bad). Oh-no. US deaths spike to 1,405 yesterday blowing away the 7-day MA at 999. None of this is looking good folks. Daily new cases in West Virginia, Rhode Island, Michigan and other states continue higher. Michigan spikes to 5,172 cases yesterday the highest since December 3 months ago! Detroit, you are screwed. Illinois's daily new cases spike to 2,793 the highest in 6 weeks and forecasting the start of a new wave. Chicago, you are screwed. Oh-no. The home state here, the Keystone State, reports a big spike in daily new cases to 4.7K. The pattern of spike highs in daily cases yesterday is repeating in many states. What a difference a day makes. You are witnessing the start of the fourth wave in the United States.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 2:40 AM EST: Brazil is a covid war zone. The people will be searching for President Bolsonaro with torches and pitchforks. 3.2K Brazilians die on Tuesday by far the deadliest day of the pandemic. COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that cuts down your breathing. Oxygen is in short supply at the hospitals and clinics so if you become sick, especially with comorbidities, you will die. India's daily new cases are going parabolic (vertical; extremely bad) so listen for many news stories about the tragedies in these troubled countries. The rumor mill says India may hold back on vaccine shipments to other nations so the new outbreak wave can be treated better. The age for vaccinations is lowered to 45 years old and older. India is behind the eight ball as the second wave takes off dramatically higher. Vaccine nationalism lingers like bathroom stink; it is the devil on the country's shoulders telling them to hold back on vaccine supplies, raw materials and even PPE. Protect your own nation while stabbing even your friends in the back. Protectionism and nationalism exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930's. Countries slit each other's throats instead of working together so they all bled to death lying on the dirty linoleum floor, including the US. Paraphrasing Ben Franklin, 'we can choose to hang together, or, if not, we will surely hang separately'. Will the world choose vaccine diplomacy or will they further embrace vaccine nationalism? Oh my. Germany's daily new cases spike wildly higher to 21K after Merkel reversed the lockdown restrictions planned for the next month. Europe is in disarray.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 7:00 AM EST: As highlighted in the last article and above, there is likely a connection between the pig herds, African Swine Flu (ASF) and China Flu. The links are too numerous to ignore. Regions of Europe that house large pig herds experience correspondingly high occurrences of COVID-19. This is especially true in the Africa data and the outbreaks occurring in coastal countries. Togo is a prime example where the pig herds are dealing with ASF and now a big breakout of covid is occurring. In the United States, the pigs and hogs are farmed in western Oklahoma and Kansas, all of Iowa as an epicenter, southern Minnesota, northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, western Pennsylvania, North Carolina and northern South Carolina. Michigan, South Carolina and Illinois are states leading the fourth wave and interestingly, this is where the water ways are accessed either via the Great Lakes or Atlantic Ocean, where increased activity with pig herds would occur. All of the pig states now see spikes in daily cases. Some of the pig viruses and diseases infect humans and some do not. 12 years ago, the H1N1 influenza A infected pigs and humans, Keystone only knows enough on this topic to be dangerous with it. The medical community would have to investigate any connection between pigs, ASF and covid. It is extremely interesting that over all these many months, with a parade of doctors, experts and other talking heads parading across television sets, nobody talks about the African Swine Flu and the ongoing problems with the world's pig herds. Why? Would WHO have the answer? If they did they would probably not tell you.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 6:00 PM EST: President Biden holds his first news conference after 2 months in office long by political standards. Biden uses notes to help answer questions and it helps that the press leans liberal and do not want to see him fail. The president is in his late 70's and survives the press conference. Biden commits to 200 million vaccine doses in his first 100 days (1/20/21 to 5/1/21) doubling the goal of 100 million shots which was easy to achieve. Let's see how noble of a goal it is, or, if the president is under promising and over delivering to look good and receive high poll ratings. 173,525,335 doses have been delivered in the United States, as per the New York Times and CDC vaccination map and data site, and 133,305,295 doses have been shot in arms. Remember, Biden last week marked the milestone of achieving the easy goal of 100 million shots within the first 100 days of his presidency (which will be assessed on May 1st, 5/1/21). Former President Trump is given credit for 20 million shots in arms at the time he left the Whitehouse on Biden's inauguration day, 1/20/21 (Trump missed his goal of 20 million shots in arms by the end of 2020 but he achieved that goal three weeks late nevertheless the orange man deserves credit). Let's get a bit mathy but it is simple stuff so if you are not a numbers person, no worries. Taking 20 million from 133 million is Biden's tally of 113 million shots in arms as of today (remember last week Biden crosses the 100 million mark). The US is administering 2.5 million shots in arms per day. Biden promises 200 million shots in arms by 5/1/21 which is only 35 days away (Sleepy Joe is in office for 65 days). Thus, Biden, and of course the United States, needs, and wants, 87 million shots (200 minus 113) in arms within 35 days to reach the 200 million goal. Dividing 87 million shots by 35 is 2.5 million doses per day. That is funny how it works out that way. Ole steady Joe is not sticking his nose out. At the current vaccination rate of 2.5 million doses per day, Biden will achieve his 200 million shot goal with perfect timing to brag about it on May Day simply based on the current rate. This is the dirty politics of coronavirus. It tells you that Biden and his team are smart and calculated political operatives. These folks know how to play the game. They ran through this same calculation which enabled Biden to make the '200 million shots in arms within his first 100 days' proclamation today. He is not sticking his neck out in any way. Biden set the covid bar so low it is sitting on the floor so he can easily step over it in his orthopedic shoes. He is 'play it safe' Joe. Biden proclaims, "I know it's ambitious, it's twice our original goal." What showman the politicians are. No, it is not ambitious. If you simply vaccinate at the current rate of 2.5 million doses per day, Biden will meet the goal without even breaking a sweat. Biden and the Whitehouse gang are counting on Americans being too stupid to do the math and instead blindly cheer on the 200 million shot goal believing it is akin to climbing Mt Kilimanjaro. It is not; it is more like climbing the cellar steps from the basement to the kitchen. It sounds like a big number, 2 hundo, wow, can he really do 200?, but it is nothing more than smoke and mirrors and showmanship. The US will be at 200 million shots by the end of April at today's pace. Shockingly, and shamefully, the press does not ask one single question of the president concerning the coronavirus pandemic. The China Flu is the most important issue concerning Americans.
Note Added Thursday, 3/25/21 at 8:00 PM EST: Bill Gates, the pontificator that likes to hear himself talk, says societies will be back to normal by the end of 2022. Global citizens will not be able to mentally handle another 1-1/2 year of pandemic chaos and confusion. The trouble keeps piling up for New York Governor Casanova Cuomo who has become a clown show. The latest alleged nefarious act, reported by the Washington Post, was that Cuomo was having his family and friends tested for covid in his living room at his house early on in the pandemic while others that were in need of tests found none. Cuomo your done. The stink is getting nasty; the stench overpowering. Leave already. The thousands of nursing home bodies are too much to fit into a closet.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/26/21 at 2:00 AM EST: THE US 4TH WAVE BEGINS. This is terrible news. Sorry to play the role of Michael the dark Archangel again but the day begins with the bad news that was feared the last few days. The United States has started a fourth wave. On the US daily new cases chart, bring up the 3-day MA which is a smoothing line that averages the prices over the last 3 days. A downtrend in daily new cases, which is what we all want, will be displayed by the 3-day MA making lower lows and lower highs. An uptrend, which represents a virus wave in progress and the pandemic worsening, will be displayed by the 3-day MA making higher lows and higher highs. Sadly, this is now the case. The peak on the 3-day MA on 3/12/21 is 64,155 cases. The peak of the 3-day on 3/19/21 is 64,480 cases; a higher high. Today, the 3-day MA is at 64,568 cases; a higher high again. In addition, the low is higher for the 3-day MA. Clearly, an uptrend is now established with the daily new cases. The US reports 67,046 daily new cases yesterday above the prior day's 66,880 cases more bad news. The elevated 67K cases are bad news. The 7-day MA is at 59K with the daily new cases running well above which is bad (the pandemic is not being defeated unless the daily new cases each day are below the 7-day MA). The 7-day MA is now sloping up. The downtrend in daily cases stopped, then moved sideways, now begins moving higher as the fourth wave is underway. Americans do not want to give up their partying ways so COVID-19 continues wreaking havoc. 1,165 Americans die from the China Virus yesterday which is above the 7-day MA. 1.4K died the prior day. Daily deaths in the US are starting to creep higher again. Almost 560K Americans are dead from covid. Michigan reports a big 5.8K new cases yesterday the highest since early December. West Virginia reports higher daily new cases. Oh-no. Florida daily new cases pop to 5.8K cases the highest in 3 weeks. The spring break partiers are having fun in Florida right now swimming in covid. California is above 58K deaths. America is not going to want to hear that the fourth wave has started since they are joyously celebrating the springtime and the coming end of the coronavirus pandemic (they think).
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/26/21 at 2:30 AM EST: Oh-no. Mexico reports 200,211 dead from COVID-19 unfortunately crossing the grim 200K milestone. This pandemic is sad business. President AMLO pledges to speed-up the vaccination program. Brazil and India are in horrendous shape and there are millions and millions of folks living in those West-friendly nations. The daily new cases for both countries has gone parabolic. Oh-no. Brazil reports 303,726 dead from China Flu crossing the grim 300K milestone. France is at 94K dead and will hit the 100K death milestone in late April early May. France is in trouble with a huge spike in daily new cases occurring overnight. Poland, Ukraine and Hungary are reporting record-breaking daily new cases. It is bad. Europe is floundering looking for solutions to its earlier mismanagement of the pandemic.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/26/21 at 3:00 AM EST: The $1,400 stimulus payments are arriving in US bank accounts this week. Financial analysts will surprised that most of the money will be saved or used to pay down debt. People are burned-out from dealing with the pandemic for over one year so the negativity in the public's mind is typically not conducive to spending. North Carolina will open vaccinations to all adults in 2 weeks. Cases are rising so they need to jump on it faster. North Carolina is a huge pig state so ASF is in play. America would be smart if they focused vaccinations on all meat and poultry workers and specifically anyone working around pigs. California is also lowering its vaccination age limits.
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/26/21 at 4:00 AM EST: Vaccine mandates begin. Society is changing. Rutgers University is requiring all students to be vaccinated. You must take on the mandatory Mark of the Beast to walk the hallowed halls of Rutgers. Kneel before your masters. The majority of the students appear anxious to become vaccinated and embrace the concept of mandating vaccines since things will return to normal (is what they believe). Others are aghast that a college can force you to take a vaccine that is not completely proven as yet and they plan to remove their kids from the university. Other colleges will probably mandate vaccines. No doubt there will be lawsuits filed so it will become tangled-up in the courts. You can see what is coming; a two-tiered society. Those willing to take on the Mark of the Beast and roll up their sleeve every time the government tells them to will be allowed to travel and freely move anywhere they desire. Celebrity events and concerts will welcome the vaccinated. However, the non-vaccinated will be shunned. These folks will become the modern-day lepers unwanted and undesired. A non-vaccinated person will be looked down upon and treated as a second-class citizen destined to remain in the shadows and no longer an integral part of the economy and society. What Brave New World awaits?
Note Added Friday Morning, 3/26/21 at 6:00 AM EST: Companies are offering incentives to encourage vaccinations. Krispy Kreme Doughnuts offers a free doughnut each day for the remainder of the year with proof of vaccination. A Michigan dispensary is offering a free joint (marijuana) to the folks vaccinated. Other companies are offering food and cash or adding free hours to the employee's paycheck if they become vaccinated. You can get humans to do anything if you shake a $5 bill in front of their face.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 3/26/21 at 2:00 PM EST: Bombshell news occurs when former CDC Director Redfield is interviewed by CNN's Dr Sanjay Gupta. Redfield says, speaking his own opinion, that COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan laboratory in September or October of 2019 earlier than previously told. He does not offer proof but he was privy to non-public information and data. Redfield says the story about the virus starting from a bat and jumping to a human, then immediately becoming the worst pandemic seen in modern history, is not believable. It takes time for viruses to develop which debunks the bat theory. He says the virus likely began in Wuhan from an infected laboratory worker. It happens when dealing with viruses. The lab was likely working on methods to accelerate the growth of viruses so that tests and research could be performed faster. The virus likely escaped. Redfield says he is not saying the released of coronavirus from Wuhan was intentional. The latest CCP lie is trying to tell the world that coronavirus started from multiple locations; do not trust any information out of communist China. WHO, that lays in bed with the CCP, disputes Redfield's comments. Of course they do. WHO is supposed to release a 400-page report on the origination of the virus next week. For what? China denied access to information, and locations, when the investigators looked into the matter a month ago. The filthy CCP will never tell you the truth about what they did in one of the two Wuhan laboratories. China will not even tell the world about the existence of the other lab probably because that is where the bioterrorism experiments occur. It would be surprising if the WHO report has any real value. Fauci says that coronavirus spread several weeks or a month or more before China discovered it. Gupta comments on the status of COVID-19 in America ns he says it is "mostly good news." Sanjay, my man, the US fourth wave has started. Take another look at the data and charts. Next week Gupta will likely flip-flop. He says hospitalizations are going down but in the Whitehouse televised covid task force meeting today, CDC Director Walensky says hospitalizations are now bumping higher, which they are. (Note Added on Sunday, 3/28/21; In fairness, Walensky is citing 'new hospitalization admissions' which are bumping higher but 'hospitalizations' are in a downtrend still yet, barely, so Gupta was also correct although the hospitalization data does begin moving higher two days hence.) The Johns-Hopkins data lags the Worldometer data by a few days so the mainstream media will play catch-up next week announcing that a new fourth wave has begun. China is putting itself on a war footing so the West will need to follow suit. China and Iran sign a 25-year pact so nations are beginning to pick sides.
Note Added Friday Evening, 3/26/21 at 8:00 PM EST: Mutant virus strains are identified in travelers between Tanzania and Angola. Tanzania President Magufuli, a covid denier, died of the virus last week. Magufuli did not enforce lockdowns, masks and other virus-preventive measures so the country turns into an infected covid nest now producing mutations. His replacement, Samia Suluhu Hassan, is already lying saying Magufuli died of a heart attack (he was sick with covid for a few weeks). Tanzania, and the world, awaits to see if she will implement lockdowns, masking and other rules, or, follow the losing Magufuli game plan. In late January and early February, only a month ago, with concerns no doubt continuing, Tanzania's pig herds are hit with a major outbreak of African Swine Flu (ASF). The correlations keep popping up around the world where there may be a connection between pigs, ASF and China Flu. One dozen animal species are now infected with coronavirus around the world. There are 3 to 5 viruses that jump from animal to human each year in the world most occurrences are with birds. Another disturbing aspect of the pig herds is that China owns the US meatpacking facilities. Obviously, the CCP enjoys carte blanche access to these plants in the US and also to other meat-packing facilities around the world. It makes you wonder. Fauci is asked if the United States is turning the corner with the pandemic (Trump said we were rounding the corner for 5 months until he was hit head-on by the covid Mack truck and sent to the hospital). In true Fauci fashion, where he tries to keep as many arms and hands in different camps as possible, concerned about institutions and people's reputations and careers, he answers by saying, "We are at the corner." Paraphrasing former President Harry Truman, 'give me a one-handed virologist'. That way, he cannot say on the one hand, but then on the other hand. Keystone spent many school days at, or in the corner, but he was made to wear a dunce cap.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/27/21 at 2:00 AM EST: Bad news. Friday's US daily new cases jump to 77K cases well above the 7-day MA at 61K. The 7-day MA is sloping upwards signaling the fourth wave has started in the United States. The 3-day MA continues higher printing 3 higher highs and 2 higher lows; it is an uptrend. The US daily new cases curve was dropping creating the public joy nowadays, however, the curve started to base, and now moves higher (as an aside, the word 'plateau' is used by the media and medical folks to describe the daily cases leveling off but in charting a plateau only occurs after an uptrend; when the chart flattens after a downtrend, it is referred to as 'basing', or 'building a base' or 'forming a base'; it is nitpicky stuff and only mentioned to provide the correct jargon used by chartists and data analysts; of course we hope the daily new cases will base at zero). The US active cases curve refuses to drop to form the bell shape to signal that the virus is defeated probably because it is not. The next key metric to watch to verify 100% that the US wave four is real, is the active cases each day. Over the last four days, the trend in total active cases is 7.05 million, 7.02 million, 7.01999 and 7.017. Two days ago, the curve was on the verge of moving higher but the downtrend remains, barely. Let's round-up the last three numbers and each are 7.02 million. The US active cases curve is dead-flat for 3 days but we desperately need to see it dropping straight down to form the bell shape. If you see the active cases bump higher to 7.03 million any day forward that is all you need to see to know that covid misery awaits the States over the next month or so and wave four is well underway. Get prepared. Run up to Walmart and stock up again. 1.3K Americans die yesterday from covid. Michigan reports 6.1K daily new cases another high for this new wave the most cases since early December. Pennsylvania reports the highest new cases since January and deaths cross the 25K level for the Keystone State. Clearly, the fourth wave has started in America. Oh-no. A big pop in daily new cases occurs in New Jersey as was feared. The terrible news for Jersey is that its active cases curve has officially stopped going lower and will not form the bell shape. The active cases in New Jersey the last 2 days are 193.6K and 193.9K going higher which is bad news. New York crosses above the grim 50K dead milestone with new cases rising. Florida's daily new cases are rising as young folks guzzle beer during spring break and puke on the boardwalk. Rhode Island reports nearly 500 daily new cases the highest in 6 weeks. Cases rise in North Carolina the East Coast pig state and in Iowa the Midwest epicenter of the US pig herd. West Virginia's daily new cases jump to 5 hundo which has not been seen in 6 weeks. Open your eyes folks and gaze upon the fourth wave.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/27/21 at 2:30 AM EST: Oh Dear Lord. Brazil reports 3.6K deaths yesterday. It is breathtaking. The deadliest day has the country in mourning. The hospitals and clinics are overrun and oxygen supplies are depleted. If you get sick with covid in Brazil and have a pre-existing condition, chances are you will die. Brazil's healthcare system is in collapse. Every hospital hallway is stacked with patients while others lay outside or stay home incapacitated since they know the hospital cannot help. The data becomes more depressing each day. India's new cases spike higher again the new outbreak is in an exponential infection phase right now. Nearly 300 die in India yesterday the deadliest day since the end of December and deaths will be ramping substantively higher. Russia crosses the sad 97K dead milestone and in a week should cross 100K dead. Europe remains a mess with over 107K people dead from covid in Italy. Cases are ramping higher in Spain. It is out of control. Poland prints record case numbers again. Tragically, Hungary reports the highest daily cases and highest deaths of the entire pandemic yesterday! Instead of partying, people need to be stocking-up inventory again and getting ready for trouble. After writing about the virus for over a year, right now seems like the scariest time, and it is when the public is frolicking about thinking that coronavirus is ending. There are major outbreaks all over the world. Major countries such as India and Brazil are in covid Hell and things are going to become far worse. Europe is a mess. There are waves of covid hitting African countries mainly the coastal nations. Kenya is imposing lockdown measures as conditions worsen with 1 in 4 people testing positive for covid. Kenya's medical system is buckling. The US has just started a fourth wave. Canada is not doing well. In the Pacific, the Philippines is falling apart reporting a huge spike in daily cases to 9.8K cases the most ever. It is a poor nation so the human suffering is exacerbated. The COVID-19 pandemic is at the worst point ever but very few, even most of the so-called smart medical minds, appear to understand the seriousness of the current situation. In a month or two, if things continue in the current direction and trajectory, prayer may be the only answer.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/27/21 at 3:00 AM EST: Doctors are testing the blood of patients before and after vaccination to determine the effectiveness of the antibodies. Early findings say stress and lack of sleep may impact how long you are protected from the virus. Germany places France on its high risk list so travelers will have to remain in quarantine. The coronavirus troubles in Europe, and the world, deepen. Children in France are becoming sick with coronavirus at an alarming rate. Pfizer and Moderna have begun vaccine trials on children. Fauci says teenagers should be able to be vaccinated in the Fall once the data is assessed. Amazon subsidiary STS Lab Holdco receives FDA approval for a nasal self swab test. The sample has to be sent to a lab so it takes a couple days for results which simply does not cut it with this virus. America is getting an education on handling pandemics and viruses something the Asian nations have already learned over the last 30 years.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 3/27/21: Since the world is in covid turmoil and the US fourth wave is underway, the race between vaccinations and variants is over. Variants won. Nonetheless, the US is impressively ramping-up the vaccinations reporting back to back robust days at over 3.4 million doses per day. The 7-day MA trend line which smooths out the data on the CDC/New York Times chart, is 2.7 million doses per day the best number so far. Congratulations to the healthcare workers and others involved in this Herculean feat. Humorously, news outlets are running through the Biden math explained above with the 200 million shot goal, and the lightbulb is going off that the president has set another easy low bar to walk over. The Whitehouse is counting on most Americans being stupid that 20 million of the shots are assigned to Trump's tenure pre 1/20/21. This muddies up the numbers so even those interested in sorting things out are left confused. 140 million shots are administered in America. Take away 20 for Trump so Biden is credited with 120 million shots. Sleepy Joe opens his eyes wide proclaiming that he will raise Heaven and Earth to get 200 million shots in arms; nothing will stop his steadfast resolve to reach and even exceed this goal. Biden rallies the troops decreeing, "We can do this!" The stage lost a great actor when Joe went to Washington, DC. At 120 million shots right now, 66 days into the presidency, with 33 days to go until 5/1/21 when the first 100 days ends, Biden needs 80 million more shots. At the 2.7 million shots per day rate, this is 30 days, thus, with things moving along at the current pace, the 200 million shot goal will be achieved on 4/27/21 with 3 days to spare. With vaccinations ramping-up, this calculation would only improve. Once again, Sleepy Joe will claim credit for achieving one of the most difficult goals ever when in truth, it is the hard work of the healthcare folks that are simply doing their jobs. You can tell a seasoned politician because they under promise and overdeliver; use this example in your own career and work. It is called the 'expectations game'. 15% of the US is fully vaccinated that is 1 in 7 people. New Mexico, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, West Virginia, Iowa and Hawaii are the state leaders having fully vaccinated about 1 in 5 people. The vaccinations program is encouraging but the variants are starting to bite hard.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/28/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US reports 64K daily new cases for Saturday an elevated number when the weekend data is typically lower. The US active cases curve moves incrementally lower still yet; it will be a sad day when that reports a higher number. 787 Americans die from covid yesterday. The 3-day MA can be used to ascertain the trend in US daily deaths and a pattern of lower lows and lower highs occurs which is great. We want the US daily deaths from coronavirus to be zero the sooner the better. However, the 3-day MA peaked at 1,340 on 3/19/21, then drops lower for the lower low which is all good, but then comes back up for the next peak which is 1,338 yesterday, 3/26/21. The 3-day MA trend line on the US daily deaths chart is a whisker away from losing the downtrend by displaying a higher high. Stay tuned for that. The 7-day MA for US daily deaths is at 998 deaths so any daily number above that pulls the 7-day higher (which is what we do not want) while numbers below will pull the 7-day lower (what we want). The 787 deaths, although tragic for families, is below the moving average trend lines which is good, but, wet blanket time, the deaths each of the 4 days before that are elevated above the trend lines. The fourth wave has started in the US so deaths will be expected to rise. Canada detects coronavirus variants in all 10 provinces.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/28/21, at 2:15 AM EST: As previously highlighted, Spain was starting to slip down the covid rabbit hole and things have turned dramatically worse. Spain's deaths jump to nearly 600 yesterday and crosses the terrible 75K death milestone. A fourth wave is underway in Spain. It is disturbing since Spain and Portugal were hit with the recent European wave first, they recovered, but now are becoming sick again. The variants must be super strong and contagious to keep infecting and reinfecting people. This is not good. It is disheartening to see Spain go downhill again. It will worsen the European picture as if they needed things to become worse. Portugal is okay with daily new cases very low, they are in good shape, so the developing Spain problems may be the central and eastern European covid infections backtracking back to Spain which is now imposing measures such as limiting travel to stop the virus. All the countries are the same, including the United States, and react after the covid barn door is already open.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/28/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The variants are winning the pandemic race. The global pandemic does not end until the whole world is vaccinated but this is not entirely true. COVID-19 ends when the world reaches herd immunity which occurs when people build natural antibodies because they were sick with covid along with the vaccinations. Considering the rampant spread of variants around the world and the pandemic at or quickly heading into perhaps the worst period, global citizens may not be free from the China Virus until many of them become sick with covid rather than vaccinated. It is the nature of the beast. Springtime in the northern hemisphere makes it difficult to stop people from comingling and seeking social interaction. Today is Palm Sunday in the Catholic faith (Passover in the Jewish faith) and next Sunday is Easter so families are planning big gatherings (the refined word for boozing and partying). As the late great comedian Robin Williams would joke, "Spring is nature's way of saying let's party!"
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/28/21, at 5:00 AM EST: US hospitalizations have been trending lower but the downtrend has slowed and the data is basing at an elevated level. Sadly, hospitalizations exceed the 7-day MA trend line a couple days ago hinting that up is the direction ahead. The COVID Tracking Project hospitalization data was great but this is no longer available so the CDC is the best game in town. The new hospitalizations admissions are in an uptrend and above the 7-day MA trend line for 3 days running. The 7-day MA trend line for new hospitalizations is sloping higher (bad). It will be key to see when/if the 7-day MA begins sloping higher for the hospitalizations; it will likely occur in the week ahead.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 3/28/21, at 5:30 AM EST: GlaxoSmithKline is asking the FDA for emergency approval for its antibody drug treatment. WHO warns of nefarious behaviors occurring with vaccines. Criminal elements are reusing vials selling snake oil vaccines on the internet. It should go without saying but do not buy or inject yourself with anything from the internet. The mainstream media is ever so slowly coming around to the reality of the fourth wave.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 3/28/21: CNN's Dr Sanjay Gupta interviews the doctors involved in the COVID-19 response over the last year. Dr Redfield's bombshell news was already released to promote the television show and is highlighted above. Dr Birx, known for her stylish scarves as she tag-teamed the covid response with Dr Fauci under former President Trump, says the first 100K American deaths were likely unavoidable but the deaths after that were preventable. This is a revelation hearing it directly from Birx. She is of course correct as shown in the active cases chart above. The key point in time was Memorial Day last year the end of May period. The US was on the verge of snuffing-out the virus last May/June, but people became too impatient and would not tolerate any more lockdown measures. The adult babies wanted their playtime on Memorial Day weekend. Incompetent Trump, who admitted that he was lying to the American people about the severity of coronavirus in the early days to avoid scaring the population (stupid decision no matter what way you view it), only encouraged the partying on Memorial Day (late May early June) proclaiming that everything was getting back to normal. This is exactly when the United Stated blew it. The pandemic has been a hopeless disaster ever since. Other countries' charts clearly show how they defeated the first wave at this juncture but for America, the partying, holidays, spring weather, and pretty girls, were too enticing and exciting, and you only live once, so the virus expands from that failure period forward with over 562K souls dead now and yes, probably about 462K of them were preventable deaths. It is disingenuous for Birx to speak out now when she was one of the officers in charge and could have stood her ground months ago. There was a lot of daily Donnie drama occurring. She may have been fired for speaking-up, but new light would have been shed on the pandemic saving lives. She, like everyone, makes decisions based on saving ones own job. Altruism is on a milk carton. American exceptionalism deteriorates to American mediocrity as the middle class is destroyed over the last 50 years and now it descends into American incompetence. The United States is a dysfunctional crony capitalism government with a corrupt two-party system that places their own tribal goals ahead of what is good for the nation. Good luck with that direction. The crony capitalism system is failing due to human greed and non-transparency; it's not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science. The young people will lead America forward since many are smartly shunning both political parties and instead choosing to think independently.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/29/21, at 1:00 AM EST: Thanks to all the Vietnam vets! Today is National Vietnam War Veterans Day 2021. There is controversy with the WHO report that is supposed to be released in the days ahead. The rumor mill says the report does not conclude that the virus came from the Wuhan bioweapons laboratories and China had a heavy hand in writing the report. What a joke. The dirtbag communists continue pimping the bat story. The WHO and China conspire at the start of the pandemic to screw the rest of the world, telling all other nations there is nothing to worry about while the filthy communists purchased every inventory of PPE available around the globe. Trump was correct in pulling the funding to WHO due to the corruption but Biden has opened the money spigots again. The pending report is a joke. China prohibited investigators, led by the WHO, to access records and information on the pandemic, would not allow them to talk to witnesses, and would not allow them to visit any of the sites around Wuhan except for those sanitized to the nth degree over the last year. All through the evening, the CCP and WHO comingled in pleasure on red satin sheets. China signs a pact with UAE (Middle East) to manufacture the Sinopharm vaccines. Trump had started a peace deal in the Middle East and the UAE participated but Biden is reversing the prior foreign policy. China is now sliding into the UAE. The clever, and filthy, CCP is a formidable enemy. The planet is squaring off for war. China is solidifying alliances with Russia, North Korea and others while the US is on a foreign tour strengthening relationships with Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and other friends in that neck of the woods.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/29/21, at 2:00 AM EST: Last evening, Fauci says the rise in US virus cases cannot be solely blamed on variants. That is an unverifiable statement because the genomic testing needed to get a handle on the variant strains remains woefully inadequate. Fauci says relaxed restrictions and spring break are contributing to the increased coronavirus cases in America. Looking at the data, 1 in 4 of the new infections in some states are the new variants. Fauci's statement only serves to cloud the situation. He would be better served in pressuring the states to expand the DNA testing on the variants. The states are likely waiting on funding.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/29/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Germany considers imposing emergency measures across the bloc after complaining that regions within the country are not doing enough to battle the virus. Europe's vaccinations are proceeding at too slow a pace. The EU continues pressuring AstraZeneca to supply Europe with vaccine before shipping elsewhere. With the pandemic out of control in France, President Macron pulls a Trump and proclaims that he has "no regrets" for not imposing lockdown measures. The sick and those dying from COVID-19 likely do. Macron decrees, "We were right not to implement a lockdown in France at the end of January because we didn't have the explosion of cases that every model predicted. There won't be a mea culpa from me. I don't have remorse and won't acknowledge failure." Sacrebleu! France and Germany are in the silly season with elections ahead. France did not want to shutdown the economy so it now pays the price with the pandemic. Macron is wrong about this proclamations. Simply bring up the charts. France daily new cases never improved from last November to present. What is Macron looking at? France's active cases curve continues higher and higher and never rolled over to form the bell shape to signal that the pandemic was under control; it is not, the virus is actually spinning out of control. The Philippines goes into lockdown through Easter closing the barn door after the covid horses have already escaped. The UK is relaxing covid rules to allow outdoor gatherings of 6 people.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/29/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Global daily cases are approaching 128 million and rocket higher over 630K per day not seen since the January wave. The 7-day MA goes parabolic along with the daily data. Global deaths are also on the rise. The US is at 31 million total coronavirus cases and 562,526 deaths. US daily new cases are at 44K the lowest in a few days but that is expected since it is Sunday. It is positive that last Sunday the cases were at 47K now a hair lower. Overall, however, for the US, the fourth wave is underway and will likely be confirmed by the mainstream media this week. The US active cases curve is flattening but remains in only a slight downtrend so we will have to hang on to hope for as long as possible. When the active cases curve curls higher, that will signal at least a month or so of pain ahead (which may occur any day ahead). US deaths are 510 yesterday thankfully a lower number compared tor recent days but again, it is the Sunday data the lowest numbers of each week. Last Sunday, there were 478 US deaths. Sadly, the 7-day MA on the US daily death curve curls higher for the first day. At best, if you want to be optimistic, the US deaths are basing moving sideways. Brazil's P1 variant is identified in Wisconsin, USA, joining several other states. This is not going to progress well, folks. Some Americans receiving the Pfizer vaccine report a metallic taste in their mouths which the doctors and scientists say is harmless. A metallic taste is typically experienced by cancer patients receiving chemotherapy drugs.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 3/29/21, at 4:00 PM EST: The CDC extends the national eviction moratorium in the US through 6/30/21. The small landlords are getting screwed royally over the last year. 40% of landlords have a tenant that owes rent you may as well call it one-half the landlords. 11% of landlords have sold at least one of their properties over the last year due to cash flow problems. These homes will be used by the buyer and no long rented which will drive-up rents for those that least can afford it. CDC Director Walensky says she has a feeling of "impending doom" and pleads with the American people to keep masking and social distancing. She speaks from the heart saying, "Right now, I'm scared." The data is becoming worse with a terrible fourth wave at America's doorstep. President Biden speaks echoing Walensky's comments. Biden decrees, "Mask-up, it's your patriotic duty." Several states respond with a raspberry. Alabama says, 'no, forget it'. Ditto Indiana (home state of former Vice President Pence) that says it will forge ahead with reopening plans. Coronavirus cases ae rising in 27 US states and yet they are forging ahead with reopening the economy and looking forward to the Easter party weekend only days away. The president says 90% of the US population (33 million of the US 330 million population are children 16 years old and younger, thus, 297/330=90%) will be eligible for vaccination in 3 weeks (4/19/21) and the sites will be within 5 miles of where most people live. He urges neighbors to help neighbors to get everyone vaccinated. 75% of the elderly population is vaccinated but that means 25% is not and the bulk of the non-vaccinated are the minorities and do not forget there are a lot of poor whites in this group as well. In ongoing polls, 20% of Americans do not plan to get vaccinated. Another 10% to 20% are hesitant, the word skeptical is used in Europe, but they are being won-over once their questions and concerns are answered and they see family, friends, the elderly and coworkers getting vaccinated. That 20% will likely never be convinced to receive a covid shot so the vaccine passports will be an ongoing social issue for months and years forward.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 3/29/21, at 7:00 PM EST: Further testing on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines show that one dose is 80% effective and two doses are 90% effective. The study hints that UK did it right by vaccinating as many people as possible with one dose. The US is using a different approach and following the drug trial results to the letter giving people the 2-dose regimen. There is also concern that a variant may develop or become far worse in a patient only partially protected with one dose but this does not appear to be the case in the UK. The US doctors, such as Fauci, say it is unknown how long the antibodies would remain with only one dose versus two doses. Things are going well in the UK so far. The data is key this week to unequivocally confirm the US fourth wave so if anyone is hoping for a miracle, now would be the time to pray for it. The fourth wave is in progress and the daily new cases, active cases, total deaths, daily deaths, vaccinations and hospitalization data will be monitored early this week to see if a miracle occurs stopping the fourth wave (do not get your hopes up). GLOBAL DEATHS EXCEED 2.8 MILLION. Global daily new cases and daily deaths continue rising. Brazil is in chaos; people are dropping like flies.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 3/29/21, at 10:00 PM EST: The WHO report on the origin of coronavirus is receiving lots of attention for its corruption. The report says the virus started from a bat that may have jumped to some other animal (note that they do not highlight the snake story from last year, instead they say any animal; the original story was the bat got infected and a snake ate the bat and then a human ate the snake). Do you believe this dribble? COVID-19 was released from one of Wuhan's bioweapons laboratories, either intentionally or accidentally. China, specifically the filthy CCP, and WHO, lay in bed each evening comingling on red satin sheets, performing obscene acts so sick that Caligula would blush, plotting how to next deceive the world. WHO has no credibility after this report. They say the release from a lab theory is the least likely scenario while they are pimping a frozen food story. The virus was supposed transmitted in frozen food. As Sleepy Joe Biden says, "C'mon, man." What idiot is swallowing those lies? The sycophants charged with cheerleading the bat story, such as liberal intellectuals at universities in England and elsewhere, boast that the report had dozens of scientists looking into the matter. Sure they did. One half of the investigators were WHO and the other half Chinese operatives. What a joke. Ignore the report, folks. It is dribble, trash and a piece of garbage from a corrupt organization. Sadly, what is worse, is that the report is actually very damaging, harmful and actually confusing the situation. The report only serves to muddy the waters and perhaps that was the goal of the CCP and WHO tag team that can be considered one in the same. Once the world moves past the pandemic, the nations of Earth will unite and pay dirtbag Dictator Xi a visit. China owes the world trillions in reparations for the COVID-19 pandemic that they released and cash or property will be accepted as payment. How do you think this will play out over the next couple years? The bogus WHO and CCP joint report only serves to create more strain among the US and China superpowers placing the world one step closer to war.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/30/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The lower weekend data is behind us and the US reports 60K daily new cases for Monday, an elevated number, but fortunately under the 7-day MA trend line at 65K. The 7-day trend line is now moving higher indicating a fourth wave underway. The 3-day MA has made 3 higher highs and 2 higher lows confirming the uptrend. Watch for the 3-day MA to now make a higher low again to confirm the uptrend although we all hope it would actually make a lower low to hint that the uptrend is stalling. For today's data forward, watch the 7-day MA at 65K. If it comes in below 65K perhaps the US will have a chance of minimizing the impact of the fourth wave. More cases are tallied for Sunday so that number is bumped higher to 52K cases. This is the highest Sunday new case number since 2/28/21 at 54K cases. So this is a metric to watch for the Easter Sunday number in a few days. We need the daily cases on Sunday, 4/4/21, to be sub 54K, otherwise trouble will be escalating. The US active cases curve is starting to favor a flattening out which is bad since we want it to drop to form the bell shape and signal the end of the virus. The downtrend is in tact for the active cases curve but only by a hair. It will be sad when the active cases curve turns higher since covid problems will remain with the US for a month or more with escalating hospitalizations. 639 Americans die yesterday. The CDC reports 25,189 hospitalizations yesterday which is good news well below the 7-day MA trend line at 31,850. This is very good news with hospitalizations finally at the same level as last September before the big surge higher. The data is always 3 days old, however. New hospital admissions are sub 4K more great news which will curve the 7-day MA trend line lower. Despite the encouragement in the hospitalization data, it is lagging data, and obviously hospitalizations only increase after the daily new cases increase and then once the hospital stays increase, the deaths increase. The race between vaccinations and variants appears to have been won by the variants but just like any Hollywood movie, vaccinations are getting up off the mat (after Biden's 90% cheerleading comments explained above) and trying to fight off the fourth wave. The next 1 to 3 weeks is going to tell the story for the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in America. Michigan crosses the 17K deaths milestone with hospitalizations rising. Young people are getting sick at a higher rate which indicates that the new infections are coming from parties. New York is over 50K dead as the stink from the Casanova Cuomo scandals lingers. California's active cases curve is flatlining and hinting that it may want to drift higher which is not good since it has a big influence on the US numbers overall. Texas reports 3.8K daily new cases yesterday an elevated number and the 7-day MA trend line for Texas moves higher but call it flat and basing for now. Texas's positivity test rate has been dropping for a couple weeks but remains somewhat elevated at 5.3%. Remember, for a successful testing, tracking and tracing program to work, the test positivity rate for covid needs to be sub 1% and preferably lower. When there are too many cases, it is too difficult to test and track them all in a quick timeframe. Texas hospitalizations are the lowest since September. It is good that the healthcare workers are catching a bit of a break but do not let your guard on as the severity of the fourth wave will be assessed in early April. 31 states now report a rise in daily new cases up from 27 states yesterday.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/30/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India's second wave is spinning wildly out of control. Two coronavirus variant mutations are identified in India dubbed E484Q and L452R. Neighboring nations are concerned about the new wave and its impact on Southeast Asia. Over 68K daily new cases are reported in India on Sunday and 56K yesterday these numbers over the last week not seen since last October. India is stepping-up vaccinations but most countries follow the same game plan and react after the a new wave is already underway. It is crisis management where the people in charge are always reacting to the latest crisis. In fairness, the once in a century pandemic came out of left field. The interesting dilemma in handling the coronavirus pandemic is the delay factor. There is about an 8-day period, call it a week or two, after a superspreader party, concert, campaign rally, holiday, protest or riot, when daily cases will rise. The couple-week delay factor plays a cruel joke on the officials trying to read the covid tea leaves. The data, although mostly up to date in real-time within a day or three, is actually reflecting the transmission of COVID-19 a couple weeks earlier. So when you think you have things going in the right direction, whammo, you are knifed in the gut with an increase in cases and new wave. As the famous boxer and scholar Mike Tyson says, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." Conversely, when all hope is lost and the hospitals are at capacity, suddenly things improve out of the blue. It is like two people talking on television from opposite sides of the world with a satellite delay. They talk over one another and there is typically confusion and chaos of who should speak when due to the time delay (this is why on a walkie-talkie when you are finished speaking you say "over" and then when the other person is done speaking they say "over."). Coronavirus plays the same delay game that creates pandemic confusion and chaos. In a future pandemic, pounding the two-week delay understanding into the public's heads would train their minds to always give a couple-week's leeway before celebrating success. Managing expectations is key to keeping the restless public at bay. Sweden is in trouble and wants to extend measures to stop the spread. Sweden's daily cases pop to nearly 8K a couple days ago the highest since the start of the year. Sweden's deaths jump higher to 37 souls yesterday when they have been running fewer than 10 deaths per day over the last couple weeks.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/30/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Trump, who is quickly becoming an after thought after his post-election baby drama, comments on the CNN doctor interviews carried out by Dr Sanjay Gupta. Trump slams Fauci and Birx bragging that he never listened to the doctors. Duh. King Donnie just admitted to one of the reasons the pandemic is a mess. He was running the covid show in 2020 from a political perspective the whole time and only using doctor information when it fit his narrative, but he did what every other politician does. It is annoying that Trump rarely, say never, shows remorse for the dead Americans (400K on his watch and 163K on Biden's watch thus far) and their families. To show empathy and sympathy would call direct attention to his failure at handling the pandemic, which is the main reason he lost the election, and King Donnie would never admit he was wrong or in error in any way.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/30/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Canada reports blood clot cases with the AstraZeneca vaccine and halt the shots for those under 55 years old. Germany suspends the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to more blood clot cases. Officials are recommending the vaccine be used only on patients over 60 years old (in other words, you will probably die in a few years so this vaccine is good enough for you). Confidence is lost. The problems with the vaccine will only solidify vaccine skepticism. AZN stock drops -1.2%. Europe is in a tough spot currently.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 3/30/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Inspector Clouseau, otherwise known as WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, criticizes the WHO/CCP coronavirus origin report. You cannot make the stuff up. Hey idiot, you run WHO. It is your report that you released. Call him the clueless general. The dolt proclaims, "We have not yet found the source of the virus, and we must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do." It is laughable. The WHO has zero credibility; they lay in bed with communism. Sit down and shut up idiot. That dude is not even qualified to run Whoville. The international community responds negatively to the WHO/CCP report as they should. It is an incomplete and incompetent work since China is hiding the truth. This is what filthy communists do and the report only serves to create further chaos and turmoil around the world as well as animosity towards China for releasing the COVID-19 bioweapon. 13 nations and counting highlight the lack of transparency in the WHO/CCP report including Australia, Canada, Japan, Israel, South Korea, UK, Czech Republic, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovenia and the US. President Biden says the American people "deserve better information."
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 3/30/21, at 8:00 PM EST: Kenya is in dire straits running out of oxygen supplies. This leads to disastrous results as seen in Brazil. China Flu is a respiratory illness and folks with preexisting conditions may need oxygen. Chile signs a deal for vaccine from China's CanSino which is also being used in large numbers in Pakistan. Ireland is relaxing covid measures which appears stupid since the active cases curve continues higher. Daily new cases are flat (which cannot occur due to mathematics; one of these data sets is wrong) so the government is likely underreporting new cases. More sad news from Brazil. On CNBC's Shepard Smith news show, Brazil reporter Patricia Campos Mello decrees, "The situation is completely out of control." Brazil is hit with the P1 variant. "We have people dying because of lack of oxygen, people are literally suffocating." Where is Bolsonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro? Bueller?
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/31/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The data is key each day as the fourth wave is assessed. The jury is out in the medical community with some saying the fourth wave is at hand while others say a fourth wave will not occur. The daily new cases data has already established that it is in an uptrend with the 3-day MA making higher highs and higher lows and the 7-day MA also sloping higher. For Tuesday, the US reports 62.5K cases which is below the 7-day MA at 65K which is good. The big spike in daily new cases was 77K last Friday, and it is a surprise to see the cases shoot higher from there. The 3-day MA and 7-day MA clearly identify an uptrend in progress but there is a glimmer of hope if the daily new cases can drop from here. St Patty's Day was Wednesday, 3/17/21, a day when everyone was Irish and the city sidewalks were dotted with green puke. As evidenced with prior holidays, there is a week or two lag before cases increase after a potential superspreader event, and 9 days seemed to fit this pattern well. Interestingly, 9 days after St Patty's Day is Friday, 3/26/21, the recent high in cases. Thus, the bump constituting the fourth wave thus far likely began with the St Patty's Day parties. The Irish get blamed this time. Four days after the holiday, spring arrives in the northern hemisphere so people are frolicking in the warmer weather. You would think the cases would steadily ramp-up after Friday's high but cases are idling sideways through the weekend through yesterday. People are out and about more but continue to wear masks and social distance, for the most part. The Easter weekend is only four days away with big feasts planned and of course egg hunts. The local community told Keystone he was not allowed to participate, it is only for little kids, not big old kids. So, once again, the most important data is ahead. Friday is typically the highest cases so the next 3 days should firmly highlight whether the fourth wave continues, or not. Perhaps the fourth wave may only be a bloop higher and may surprisingly subside as the vaccination efforts ramp-up dramatically. Watch the 77K high case number over the next 3 days. If any of the 3 daily case numbers exceed 77K, it is full-on fourth wave game time. If the data remains below 77K, the US has hope that the vaccinations are gaining ground against the variants just as all hope was thought to be lost. The climax and resolution of the coronavirus movie is happening in real-time this week. The US active cases curve is flat not yet curling higher (a good thing but the chart needs to come down sharply). 873 Americans die from the China Virus yesterday. The 7-day MA trend line for US deaths is moving sideways at 980 call it the 900-1000 range. If deaths move above 1K, the US is screwed. If we stay below 900 deaths per day there is hope. Groan. The CDC hospitalization data is challenging to assess. Perhaps it takes time to get used to after the COVID Tracking Project stopped its data and chart offerings. The data is updated often so what you see at one point in time may not be there next time. The 7-day MA and daily hospitalizations are tracking each other at 33K. It will break one way or the other so simply watch to see if the hospitalizations begin increasing above 33K (bad) or start to drop and trend below 33K (good). The new hospital admissions is a key real-time data set and it is understandable why CDC Director Walensky highlights this number in the press conferences. The 7-day trend line and new cases are moving higher and this data is 3 days behind. A stink develops in Florida as deaths rise including among young people. Almost 100 people died yesterday and 158 last Friday. Yahoo News reports that Florida may have underreported deaths by as many as 7 thousand. Republican Governor DeSantis has been bragging that the state has reopened for business and there is not a problem with cases or deaths rising. Florida's 7-day daily new cases trend line is in an uptrend (bad). Washington state reports zero regular flu cases the first time in 100 years. Obviously, any flu-like deaths are all chalked up to covid. The US crosses above 31 million total coronavirus cases and 564K deaths. The grim milestones continue falling over like dominoes.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/31/21, at 4:00 AM EST: 190 million vaccine doses are delivered to US states and territories and almost 150 million shots are in arms according to the CDC and New York times map. 53 million Americans are fully vaccinated with another 43 million having received one shot. Some of the fully vaccinated folks have received the single-shot J&J vaccine. 16% of the USA is vaccinated (53 million divided by the population of the US at 330 million).
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/31/21, at 7:00 AM EST: France considers a national lockdown. Pfizer says its vaccine is 100% effective for kids age 12 to 15 years old. The US government is pushing these drug trials quickly forward since they need kids to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity (unless far more Americans have been sick with covid than thought and they now have natural immunities).
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 3/31/21, at 1:00 PM EST: A crazy dude, that was in prison a couple decades for stabbing his mom, brutally kicks a lady in New York. She is Asian so the Asian hate diatribe is pumped again by the liberal news outlets. The nutcase likely had issues with women. The Asian violence is mainly occurring in the four racist hate cities of Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. These cities need to clean up their racist swamps and stop labeling the rest of America as racist when it is mainly in their sick cities that the trouble is occurring. All these incidents are the same. A nutcase goes berserk and murders and maims innocent people with a gun, or butcher knife, or vehicle, or bomb, or airplane, or choose your weapon. Their deranged minds cause them to inflict harm upon humanity and they act out that violence when they snap, perhaps after watching a news program, or something a neighbor says, or if the grocery store clerk looked at them the wrong way. There are no real answers to such heinous crimes. Do not compartmentalize them into ethnic groups and religions and so forth. That only leads to more hate. Each group has the same percentage of nutcases.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 3/31/21, at 7:00 PM EST: France goes into a month-long lockdown. Macron is as much a screw-up at handling the pandemic as Trump. Brazil remains in chaos and the same exclamation is being heard in hospitals and on street corners everywhere, "People are dying!" And they definitely are. Brazil reports a record-breaking 3.95K deaths yesterday. It makes you sad. Brazilian billionaires are stepping up to buy vaccine wherever possible and give it to the hospitals. Where were they over the last year? Particularly troubling is that another new variant is discovered in Brazil more deadly than P1. This is tragic news. Only 2.4% of Brazilians are vaccinated. President Bolsonaro had the gull to tell the population to stop whining about the death toll a few weeks ago. Bolsonaro is using Trump's losing strategy where you sit back each day and hope the pandemic goes away. Hope is not a strategy. Everywhere you look there is a problem Ukraine sets a record for deaths at 407 souls yesterday the first time above 400 in one day. Destruction everywhere. China has devastated 130 million families around the world with their sick bioweapon that escaped from their Wuhan laboratories over one year ago. The nations of the world will unite and make sure that China pays for their nefarious deed.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/1/21, at 9:00 AM EST: Happy April Fool's Day but no one is in the mood for jokes. Laughs always, but not practical jokes. Many radio news outlets are told by their owners to avoid any pranks. The daily new cases watch continues with the US reporting 69K yesterday. That's not good. The 7-day MA is sloping higher, now at 65K, so cases are above this critical trend line. Not good. The 3-day MA remains in a solid uptrend now with 3 higher highs and 3 higher lows. Next, watch for a fourth higher high with the 3-day MA trend line which would need to be above the last peak of 71K on 3/27/21. The daily cases chart is bad news. The US active cases chart (the bell curve chart of curently infected people) is moving lower by smidgeons. The last 3 days are 6.96 million, 6.95 and 6.93 million yesterday. It will be a sad day if the active cases pop above 6.93 million for any day over the next few days. 1,115 Americans die yesterday above that 900-1000 range that separates happiness and hope (sub 900) from sadness and despair (above 1K). The 7-day MA is at 932 so it is bad that the deaths are above. The 7-day MA is moving flat. The charts are lining out sideways or biasing to the upside which indicates that the variants, such as B117, is gaining ground. Deaths are increasing at a noticeable rate in 16 US states. Michigan's daily new cases catapults higher to 7.1K. It is over for them; prepare for a month of misery. Remember, Michigan was the first state highlighted when Keystone started calling the beginning of the fourth wave. West Virginia deaths jump to 36 not seen since early January. Rhode Island reports the highest cases since 2/4/21. The charts and data do not look good. Oh-no. New Jersey's active cases curve, the key bell curve chart that verifies whether the pandemic is defeated or not, just curled higher into covid Hell. Good luck, Jersey, you, and the US, are screwed. California's active cases curve, which has a huge impact on the US active cases curve, is biasing higher now. It is all bad news.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/1/21, at 10:00 AM EST: Dr Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist that tends to bring the sobering news, perhaps he is the dark arch angel of the pandemic, a kindred soul to Keystone that also explains the bad news, proclaims that the US is "walking into the mouth of this virus (variants) monster." Alaskan republican Sarah Palin, once candidate for vice president of the United States, loved by many but reviled by others, contracts covid as well as many family members including a son with Downs.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/1/21, at 11:30 AM EST: Johnson & Johnson scraps 15 million doses of its vaccine due to a bad ingredient. Much of the vaccine nationalism war between countries is fought behind the scenes over the raw materials needed to make vaccines. Initial reports say Johnny John says the problem does not involve the plant in the US, however, the Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore is the site of he problem and other FDA concerns. JNJ stocks drops -1%. EBS crashes -14%. J&J is committed to providing a billion vaccine doses by the end of the year. Pfizer reports strong results in a phase three trial saying their vaccine is 91% effective after 6 months. This information will form the basis of whether or not booster shots will be needed in the future. Most doctors say yes and it is only the matter of timing. Pfizer also reports that the vaccine is 100% effective in children between 12 and 15 years old. The US wants to vaccinate as many people as possible as fast as possible so the drug trials for kids, although small sample sizes, are important. PFE stock rallies +1%.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 4/1/21: It is baseball season, not. The Washington Nationals (Washington, DC) cancel the baseball game with the New York Mets today due to players on the team sick with covid or quarantining. Other teams successfully played games. Fauci says the US may not need the AstraZeneca vaccine. Of course he does since the blood-clotting concerns and other problems are not going away. 15 of the people that had blood clots after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine have died, however, the medical people say this is in line with what would be expected to happen in the normal course of time with blood clot patients. Germany is instructing people under 60 years old to not take the second AstraZeneca dose and instead take a dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccines. Do you get the feeling that the medical people are making up a lot of this stuff as they go along? AstraZeneca has lost credibility. Each day is a new problem. J&J says the loss of 15 million vaccines is due to an ingredient mix-up. This story has already slightly changed in news reports three times. Some of the vaccine hesitant, or skeptical, folks are not won over easily with the medical community and big pharma and biotech providing conflicting and confusing information.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/1/21: Ontario, Canada, imposes a 4-week shutdown due to the rapid spread of variants. Prime Minister Trudeau says infections and severe and critical illnesses are rising. Young people are becoming sick in larger numbers. Canada's deaths cross the 23K grim milestone. It makes sense considering that Michigan, USA, is its next door neighbor and is is one of the US states that initially began the fourth wave in America with increased B117 infections. Wisconsin cases are rising. Ditto Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania that are all neighbors around Michigan. Sadly, Michigan reports the first case of the deadly P1 Brazil variant. Michigan cases counts are jumping +50% over the last week. There are several outbreaks at Michigan schools. Ohio variant cases rise six-fold over the last week. Despite the bad direction ahead for the virus, Americans are traveling in large numbers without a care in the world. March is the busiest month for air travel since the China Flu started over one year ago. So busy that the airlines are hiring pilots for the first time in a year. As the US fourth wave is underway, New York is reopening arts and entertainment venues with capacity limits.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/2/21, at 3:00 AM EST: More bad news as the US fourth wave becomes more verified each day. US daily new cases are up to 77K which matches last Friday's high number. Today's data is important since Friday is typically the largest data day of the week. Cases are ramping higher so the fourth wave is clearly underway. The US active cases curve is now moving sideways and not yet curling higher but looking at several states that now have active cases curves curling higher, the overall US curve will absorb that same pattern (bad). 952 Americans die yesterday still running at about 1K per day. As the fourth wave bites harder, the deaths will surely increase going forward.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/2/21, at 3:30 AM EST: 3.7K Brazilians die yesterday after the nearly 4K deaths the day before. 8,000 people die in Brazil over the last 48 hours. They are digging graves 24/7 to bury the bodies. Oh-no. India is going parabolic with its second wave reporting over 81K daily new cases yesterday not seen since October. They are dropping like flies. 468 Indians die yesterday and 458 souls the day before so that is 1,000 folks falling to COVID-19 in India over the last 48 hours. France is in major trouble. Dear Lord. France overtakes Russia in the total case count at 4.7 million total cases. Reference the paragraph towards the top of the article that lists the countries and their case counts. France jumps from 4.3 million to 4.7 million total coronavirus cases while Russia moves from 4.5 million to 4.6 million total new cases over the last week or so. This is tragic for France. The death count is just crossing 96K souls. France reports 51K daily new cases now testing the heights of the wave last Fall. For whatever reason, those hard-nosed, tough-fisted, authoritarian, bully-style politicians such as Trump (US), Macron (France), Bolsonaro (Brazil), Duterte (Philippines) have all failed at handling the pandemic, although there are only a few nations in the entire world that have succeeded such as Taiwan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand. In Belgium yesterday, a huge crowd forms in a park after an internet message is meant as an April Fool's Day joke. Violence ensues as police break-up the mostly mask-less crowd with teargas. Belgium crosses the 23K death milestone logging 50 deaths yesterday. Italy makes the vaccine mandatory for all healthcare workers. The Vatican in Rome scales back the Holy Week festivities. Pope Francis holds Good Friday mass but without the crowds in St Peter's Square. Article 38 will be assembled tomorrow with new charts so the countries and US states will be individually assessed to determine how bad things are around the world and in the US with the fourth wave now in progress. There are over 130 million total coronavirus cases around the world with over 2.8 million people dead. In the US, there are over 31 million total cases with 566,611 dead and the pandemic is not yet under control. In fact, the US active cases curve may tragically turn higher any day forward which signals guaranteed misery for a few weeks.