By K E Stone (Keystone)
The China Flu has sickened over 111 million people worldwide
killing 2.5 million global citizens. 86.1 million earthlings have recovered
from coronavirus. 78% of the people that become infected with COVID-19 recover
in a reasonable time frame; this number improves by four percentage-points over
the last 11 days. Almost 4 out of every 5 people that contract covid around the
world recover. 1 in 5 people have lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or die.
2.3% of the people that are infected with covid around the
world die which is a slight increase from 11 days ago. 1 in every 46 people on
earth that are infected with the China Flu will die. 1.5% of the world’s population of 7.67
billion people has been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 69 people.
Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist
Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of the two secret
bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit the one
lab; the commies will deny the existence of the second lab). The dirtbag
communists have developed a very effective virus that has brought the world to
its knees; humans kneel in front of Xi. Once the world defeats the pandemic,
without help from an obstinate China, nations will need to form an alliance and
pay dirtbag Dictator Xi a visit and discuss his bioterrorism aspirations.
In the United States, over 28.6 million people are infected
with covid. Nearly 508K are dead. OVER 500K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID-19 as
per the Worldometer data. The Johns-Hopkins data is above 493K dead and will
likely cross 500K in 3 or 4 days which will be Monday or Tuesday, perhaps
sooner. Ohio just discovered 4K dead in their data that was not reported
nationally so J-H is likely in the process of incorporating that stack of dead
bodies. The data sets complement one another nicely with the J-H data following
the Worldometer data by a few days.
18.8 million Americans have recovered from covid. 66% of US
citizens that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame;
this number improves by 3 percentage-points over the last 11 days. 2 out of
every 3 people that contract covid in America recover which is not as good as
the world’s average. This is likely in part due to the obesity problem in
America which leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as diabetes,
that place the person at a disadvantage once they catch the virus. 1 in 3
Americans have lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or die.
1.8% of Americans that are infected with covid die which is
a slight increase from 11 days ago. 1 in every 56 US citizens that are infected
with the China Flu will die. The death rate in the US is below the world’s
average. 8.666% of the American population of 330 million people have been
infected with covid. 1 in every 12 Americans have been stricken with
coronavirus a terrible number.
There are six nations with worse total cases per one million
population but the United States is the 900-pound dead gorilla laying on the
living room sofa. Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands,
UK and France, Israel and Bahrain, Georgia and Czechia, and Panama are the
nations in this terrible highly-infected club. The worst-infected nations on
earth are the US, eastern and western European countries, the Middle East and
Central America.
The data is improving and the good news continues that was
highlighted in the last article. Vaccine production and application rates are
increasing. The world is recovering. The big worry remains the three major
variants; the UK strain B117, the South Africa strain B1351 and the Brazil
strain B11248 or P1. The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but
less-so for the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain.
The UK strain is the most prominent on American soil
currently but the DNA sequencing tests required to identify the outbreak remain
woefully inadequate. Medical professionals are working 24/7 to expand the
genomic surveillance so the variants can be properly traced and tracked within
the United States.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Japan and South Korea are in this group. Also New
Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you identify
the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
For the US daily new cases chart above, the peak in new
cases is easily seen as 1/8/21 with 308K cases. Adding 28 days since the US is
a Western nation, is a forecast of 2/5/21 for the peak in the US active cases
curve. The 7-day MA on the daily new cases chart is sloping lower for 5 weeks
which is fantastic news and paints a rosy future. The move from 308K daily
cases to 78K daily cases is a 75% decrease in daily new cases in only 5 weeks.
Halleluiah! is what Leonard Cohen sings.
However, caution is warranted because of the upswing in
daily new cases at the right side of the chart. The low in daily new cases
occurs on 2/15/21, last Monday, at 54K cases the best number since October. The
daily news cases head higher for four straight days after the low up to 79K new
cases yesterday.
Here is a charting technique you can use to assess the path
ahead. Do you see how the daily new cases spike higher every few days over the
last five weeks but each time the bar comes up to the blue 7-day MA line, it is
spanked back down? The daily new cases are now testing this 7-day MA resistance
line again. It is for all the marbles, folks.
If the daily new cases spike up though the 7-day MA line,
that says the downward trend is changing and daily new cases will keep rising
here on out. This would mean the B117 strain is starting to bite hard. It would
destroy the current hope and optimism and cause the active cases curve to once
again curve higher.
On the positive side, if the daily new cases are spanked
back down and fall back below the 7-day MA line, that will be the best news of
the pandemic. It will tell you that the virus is being defeated and the active
cases curve will keep rolling-over lower to form the bell shape and signal
great times ahead.
We will know the outcome in a few days. The weekend data may
be soft so that will help keep the bars below the 7-day MA but Monday and
Tuesday data may be the big test. Simply reference the Worldometer chart above
on Tuesday and see how it turned out and you will know what the future brings
before anyone else.
Another chart trend to watch is the decrease in daily new
cases where the bars are printing lower lows and lower highs. During the
five-week decrease in daily new cases, the pattern of lower lows in cases and
lower highs in cases continues week after week to present. The prior daily new
cases highs were between 2/10/21 and 2/12/21, that prior cluster, where the
100K line is at, so that is another line in the sand. If the daily new cases
move above those prior highs at 100K-ish, the US is screwed.
Using the two tools to gauge the pandemic path forward, if
daily new cases remain below the 7-day MA, America is in the clear and it looks
like the new strains will not be a major issue, and with vaccinations continuing,
the future is wine, roses and happiness. Dr Fauci says if the data continues to
improve a normal baseball season may be in play from April forward.
If the daily new cases start moving above the 7-dday MA,
forget that rosy talk, it’s over and a new wave is likely beginning, probably
due to B117. If the daily new cases then balk at the 100K level and move lower
again, there will be renewed hope and optimism.
If the daily new cases continue higher after punching up
through the 7-day MA, and then punch up through the 100K level, America is
screwed. Bad things will begin happening. The active cases curve will move
higher and heaven forbid that curve takes out the 1/31/21 high, if so, it would
be disaster. The next two weeks are key. America fears a fourth wave, or fourth
surge, some are calling it.
For the US active cases chart above, the peak on 1/31/21 is
holding and the chart is rolling-over to the downside to form the bell shape.
The good news from the last article is fantastic news now. America has the
virus on the run, and this is occurring without all that many vaccinations in
the bag, which makes it better news. Again, the only trouble that would derail
the optimism is the variants, hiding in the bushes, ready to pounce.
The Keystone Model forecasted 2/5/21 for the peak in active
cases and 1/31/21 is close enough for government work. The peak in active cases
occurs 23 days after the peak in daily new cases. There was concern that the
Superbowl on 2/7/21 would be a superspreader event. The Christmas and holiday
fun was 12/18/20 (Friday starting the travel push) through 12/26/20. The daily
new cases peak on 1/8/21 so that is 13 to 21 days after the holiday or 14 days,
exactly 2 weeks, after Christmas Day. Daily new cases rose from 12/27/20
forward so from 2 days after Christmas forward. New Years is more of a honey
holiday this year with the pandemic, like Valentine’s Day, so a big increase in
cases would not be expected after these events.
Thus, assessing the Superbowl, the daily new cases would be
expected to increase from 2/9/21 going forward and perhaps peak on 2/21/21
(tomorrow). The daily cases bumped higher into 2/11/21 but then quickly
trailed-off again which is good news. The high in daily new cases today is
below the 2/11/21 bump so that tells you the Superbowl is likely not a
noticeable superspreader event.
The fans attending the Superbowl returned home and any
increase in transmission will likely blend in with the general numbers and not
stick out as a key event. This is encouraging for defeating the pandemic since
people take COVID-19 seriously and are doing what they can to prevent
transmission (masking and social distancing). Also, Florida, where the
Superbowl was held, is a pathway for B117 from the UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal
and eastern Europe, so it is good news that cases do not appear to be spiking
in the US two weeks hence.
The only remaining flies in the ointment are the variant
strains. The red line on the US active cases chart indicates the bad path ahead
if the daily cases begin spiking above the 7-day MA and then if daily new cases
move above 100K. The blue line is our current path. Say a prayer, or make a
wish, that the blue path will become Our Destiny.
The blue path on the US active cases chart is the path
forward unless the variants derail the joy. An encouraging sign from a chart
perspective is that this latest flattening of the curve is not so much a
flattening but a peak and now a developing steady downward path which is
excellent. Note the two prior times the curve flattened when we had a chance to
defeat the virus. The fact that the top of the curve occurs quickly and it is
now sloping downward, rather than the prior sideways behavior, is a positive
sign.
For the US daily new deaths chart above, the trend is
clearly lower which is great news. The daily new deaths drop in a pattern of
lower lows and lower highs which is excellent. The brown 7-day MA shows the
downward trend which is a welcome sight. Nonetheless, 1,988 Americans died from
covid yesterday. Everyone knows what it is like to lose a loved one, it is
tough. There are hundreds of thousands of families in the United States whose
lives will never be the same.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) does
a great job with the mortality data and charts. The news is never happy,
however, when discussing human death. The IHME predicts that US deaths will
cross 500K on Tuesday or Wednesday. IHME estimates that 615K Americans will be
dead on 6/1/21 at the current pace. The worse-case scenario is 645K dead by
6/1/21.
In the 1918 Spanish Flu, 675K Americans died. Hopefully, the
IHME death curve will go completely flat. Americans wore masks from 1918 to
1920 when the Spanish Flu finally finished its wrath and herd immunity was
achieved for the world.
Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but Americans
should be well-behaved until then as the winter season continues in the
northern hemisphere. More good news. Spring will be coming bringing warmer
weather so the April through September heat will help keep COVID-19 at bay.
Folks will not be couped-up inside breathing each other’s germs. There are lots
of reasons to be positive but the B117 variant is breathing down the back of
your neck.
The US coronavirus hospitalizations data continues improving
to 59,882. The peak hospitalizations are 132,474 on 1/6/21 a 55% reduction in
only 5 weeks. For waves 1 and 2, the two peaks in hospitalizations were at 60K
and the two dips were at 30K. The United States is down to 60K now which is
great. Sub 60K would be fantastic since it would be less hospitalizations than
the prior peaks. If hospitalizations drop below 30K, confetti can be thrown as
the champagne is poured.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at nearly 29 million followed by India (11 million), Brazil (10.1),
Russia (4.2), UK (4.1), France (3.6), Spain (3.1), Italy (2.8), Turkey (2.6), Germany (2.4), Colombia (2.2),
Argentina (2.1), Mexico (2.0), Poland (1.6), Iran (1.6), South Africa (1.5),
Ukraine (1.3), Peru (1.3), Indonesia (1.3), Czechia (1.1), Netherlands (1.1),
Canada (841K), Portugal (796K), Chile (796K), Romania (777K), Belgium (750K),
Israel (745K), Iraq (665K), Sweden (631K), Pakistan (570K), Philippines (559K),
Switzerland (548K) and Bangladesh (543K).
That is 33 nations with over 500,000 coronavirus cases same
as 11 days. It is noticeable how the data only increased marginally for most
nations while many others were flat. Brazil, France, Peru, Indonesia, Pakistan,
Sweden and Iraq may be experiencing difficulties ahead.
The herd immunity math is straight forward and provided in the
prior articles. About 240 million Americans need vaccinated to reach herd
immunity. The vaccinations need to occur by Labor Day, 9/6/21, since the new
flu and covid season will begin for the Fall which may bring new challenges and
variants. The 9/6/21 drop-dead date is 198 days away.
The Bloomberg vaccine tracker reports 199 million vaccine
doses administered around the world. In the US, 61 million doses are
administered for a 1.5 million doses per day vaccination rate. The rate slumps
a little because of the cold winter weather wreaking havoc across the US. The
data does not provide the number of people that receive two doses versus one
dose but taking the 61 million doses and halving it estimates that 30 million
are vaccinated with two doses.
The US needs to vaccinate 240 million people and taking away
30 is another 210 million people remaining, or 420 million doses. President
Biden said 600 million total doses would be available by July. If 420 million
doses need administered within 198 days, this is a 2.1 million dose per day
vaccination rate to finish by Labor Day. This rate goal increases marginally
higher each day that it is not achieved.
At the 1.5 million dose per day rate, the 210 million
remaining people to be vaccinated would be finished in 280 days, or 11/17/21;
November! At the current vaccination rate, everyone can give thanks at
Thanksgiving that we have reached the herd immunity vaccination rate, however,
we will not be able to celebrate since we will be sick with the new Fall flu
and new covid variant.
If the US can vaccinate at 2.5 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 168 days, or
8/7/21. Herd immunity will not occur until August even at the 2.5 rate.
If the US can vaccinate at 3.0 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 140 days, or
7/10/21. Independence Day July 4th would be a nice goal.
If the US can vaccinate at 3.5 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 120 days, or
6/20/21. The first day of summer would greet Americans with joyous herd
immunity news.
If the US can vaccinate at 4.0 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 105 days, or 6/5/21,
only 3-1/2 months away. Even at robust rates, the vaccinations would continue
into June.
The anti-vaccination dilemma is going to come to a head in
April and May. The United States is going to have plenty of vaccine available
but sometimes you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.
Vaccine incentives will have to be provided to entice some folks. Most will
probably be adamant in their refusal to be vaccinated. This would place America
just shy of the percentages needed for herd immunity.
Johnson & Johnson is beefing-up its vaccine to better
handle the new variants. Less doses may be available when it is approved but it
will likely be a state-of-the-art vaccine ready to treat the latest variant.
The South Africa B1351 strain may be problematic in a few weeks.
The US has doubled-down on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine
shipments so it is no longer important to have the J&J vaccine available to
achieve herd immunity. However, as the refusals to get vaccinated increase in
April and May, it would be nice to have the J&J vaccine. Many people do not
want the vaccine because of the new mRNA technology but some would be agreeable
to receiving a one-shot conventional style vaccine from J&J.
For the herd immunity calculation, 15% of Americans are
assumed to have had covid and acquired antibodies. The US needs 70% to 90% of
the population to have antibodies to claim herd immunity; call that 78% as an
average. Thus, 63% of Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. About
10% of people will not return for the second shot so adding that back is 73% of
Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. There are 330 million people
in the US so 73% is about 240 million people.
Interestingly, the improvement in the data and charts may be
due to more Americans having been infected with covid than thought. About 9% of
Americans are infected and adding another 6% that we do not know about, is the
15% used for the herd immunity calculation. 15% of the US is 50 million people.
However, what if it is more like 100 million Americans that have had covid?
Most are asymptomatic so people do not even realize they are sick. Many people
have fatigue, pain and so forth but simply chalk it up to getting old and they
go on living life instead of hiding under the bed. These folks may have had
covid and never knew it.
If the infection number to determine antibodies was double
the 15% estimate, that is 30%, the 100 million people number, then only 58%
more Americans would need vaccinated to reach herd immunity and that is 191
million people. Take away 30 million already vaccinated (estimated with two
doses), that is only 160 million more Americans that need vaccinated. At the
1.5 million dose per day rate, that is 107 days which is June for herd immunity.
Also, many Americans live in rural settings away from the busy city life and hurried humans. These folks go to the grocery store once per week and that is about it. Church is on line for most places nowadays. The combination of the virus already infecting far more Americans than anyone realizes, the vaccination program expanding, and the rural isolated living of many folks, and, perhaps, the natural burnout of the virus after it is in circulation for over one year, sends the data and charts to a good place.
The next month of pandemic data is going to be extremely interesting and determine how the year will proceed and finish. The US is in good
shape but keep the fingers, and your unsightly toes, crossed. The next 2 weeks will probably dictate the path ahead for the next 2 or 3 months.
The 2-dose versus 1-dose controversy continues. The Fauch
says stick with two doses because that is what the drug trial data verifies.
The UK has had success tamping down their nasty B117 outbreak that is more
contagious than the standard coronavirus giving citizens one dose and not so
much worried about the timeliness of the second shot. The first shot provided
from 66% to 80% or more effectiveness.
America is weighing the same decision but the consensus is
sticking with the 2-shot regimen. Looking at the situation simply, there are
millions of doses of vaccine coming. The Whitehouse says double and triple
shipments are going out this weekend and the vaccination sites will need to
ramp up staffing and appointments. Thus, there will be vaccine out the wazoo
and millions of Americans that will not take the shot. There will likely not be
a worry about supply or availability. Therefore, the Fauch is
likely correct; use 2 doses.
In the UK, the Brits are more prone to obey government. That
is why people do not visit London like decades past since you have to be
worried about getting stabbed on the street. The guns were taken away from the
docile public, anxious to give up their rights, so the criminals rule the
sidewalks with knives. The vaccine is the same way.
Over 80% of Brit’s plan to take or have had the vaccine and
the support grows daily. They are lining up for their sustenance. The number
increased from 65% due to the fear of the more virulent B117 strain. Tell the
Brit’s they need to take the shot and they immediately kneel in front of you and
roll-up their sleeve. This was an advantage for the UK but will be a challenge
for the US. Many Americans do not want to conform to the establishment and do
not want to take the vaccine just because ‘the man’ says so. Many Americans
kneel for no man. Other weak souls, like many in the UK, kneel and do whatever they
are told without question or rebuttal.
Another concern is that one dose only provides the partial
immunity so coronavirus may interact with these individuals and produce a strong
variant strain. That would not be good. America will probably stick with the
2-dose regimen for now. In the UK, some of the second doses have taken up to 12
weeks. The recommendation by Pfizer and Moderna is for the second shots to take
place in a 3 to 4 week time frame. No one is having an egg if the second shot
is administered 5 or 6 weeks after the first but the United States will avoid
deviating any further than that which is likely the correct path forward.
The vaccine passports remain a hot topic. Israel now issues
a green card to those that have been vaccinated which allows them to travel
freely and attend events. Freedom is only an illusion on planet Earth in 2021.
It would be a huge mistake for the US to force mandatory
vaccines; it will result in civil war. A government has no right to violate a
human body. If people are locked out of traveling or attending events because
they refuse to be vaccinated, many will live with that, so the action would
only serve to devastate the economy. If people want to take the vaccine, great,
take it, if not, don’t. Everyone has their own bag and should not criticize any
decision that others make.
Keep taking zinc and vitamin D-3 which boosts your immune
system and may help prevent the onset of the virus. Vitamins A and C are also
helpful and turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless
of coronavirus. In addition, initial medical studies show that selenium
supplementation may be helpful in reducing the effects of coronavirus. Selenium
is already known as a cancer-preventive supplement. As always, check with doc before
mapping-out any vitamin and supplement program. Keystone takes all the
supplements and vitamins listed daily, and has never had a flu shot, and has
never taken an antibiotic, and is an old guy, so there is no reason to start
that vaccination stuff now. Everyone has to make their own decisions.
The best prevention is to simply stay as far away as
possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’ and
choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry
about contracting covid at all.
The worry about vaccine nationalism a month ago has morphed
into a happier more collegial vaccine diplomacy around the world. India is
sending vaccine to the Caribbean Islands. Europe commits to funding the COVAX
program, that provides vaccines to third world countries, but it is associated
with WHO that has a soiled reputation from lying in bed with communist China.
President Biden kicks in $4 billion for the COVAX effort. He better tell those
jackasses to watch their spending and an audit is going to be performed when
they are finished.
The US should tell Taiwan that we will help them with vaccine
since the filthy mainland communists are screwing the island nation. China
would be happy if Taiwan became completely infected with covid; then it would
be easy to take control. The CCP are sick bastards and do not doubt they are
thinking about it.
China and Russia are making their vaccines available
worldwide, however, the global community are skeptical of these two partners in
crime. China released the coronavirus bioweapon, either intentionally or
accidentally, so only a fool would believe anything the communists say. The
vaccines they are playing with use an HIV carrier which poses danger to the
patient of contracting HIV. No thank you to the witches brew the filthy
communists and Ruskies are mixing up in their bioweapon’s labs.
Russia is also dealing with a bird flu problem. Workers at a poultry plant became sick in December. Scientists confirm the first transmission of the H5N8 bird flu strain from animal to human. In the past, other bird flu strains such as H5N1, H7N9 and H9N2 have been transmitted from animal to human. The planet will likely have to deal with H5N8 in the future.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, and more data and information become available, to push
the story forward.
This is Article 34 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This thirty-fourth article is published on Saturday,
2/20/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair. There is no time to think only to keep
catching your breath as the events fly by.
All 34 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog
and will be pulled together into a large book in the future providing the entire
pandemic history chronicled in real-time. The COVID-19 pandemic information has
been recorded, in detail, every day over the last year and it would be stupid
to stop this historic documentation now. The last few articles are linked here
if you want to come up to speed with the pandemic saga over the last month.
The thirty-first article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 1/17/21; 407K AMERICANSDEAD; Coronavirus is Smacking South Carolina, North Carolina, New York, NewJersey and Virginia; New UK Strain B117 Lurking in the Shadows; GLOBAL TOTALCOVID CASES EXCEED 95 MILLION; Global Hotspots Include Mexico, Central America,South America, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia,Eastern Europe, Portugal, Spain and UK; US Vaccination Program Fiasco; VaccineHesitancy; US CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY 1/20/21; President Trump Departs;President Biden Inauguration 1/20/21; OVER 430K AMERICANS DEAD FROM COVID;GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES TOP 100 MILLION; Coronavirus Article 31 published on 1/17/21.
The thirty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 1/30/21; OVER 450K AMERICANS
DEAD; Herd Immunity by Labor Day is a Formidable Goal; Vaccine Disorder
Continues; EU (European Union) Fires First Shot in the Vaccine Nationalization
Wars; California, Texas and New Jersey Are Flattening the Active Cases Curves a
Positive Development; America Improves but the New Variants May Destroy Hope;
Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Bahrain, UAE, Spain, Portugal,
France, Nigeria, Mexico and United States Remain COVID-19 Hot Spots; Global
Coronavirus Cases Exceed 103 Million; Global Deaths Exceed 2.2 Million;
President Biden Takes Control; J&J Vaccine Seeks Emergency Approval; 471K
AMERICANS DEAD; Coronavirus Article 32 published on 1/30/21.
The thirty-third article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 2/9/21; 480K AMERICANS DEAD;US Vaccination Program Gathers Momentum; Global Pandemic Improving; VaccinePassports; Herd Immunity; Superbowl and New Variants May Destroy Hope; Worst USStates are Virginia, South Carolina, New York, Maryland and Georgia; Worst HotSpot Nations are France, Spain, Portugal, Bahrain, Qatar, Peru, Bolivia,Indonesia and Malaysia; Global Coronavirus Cases Exceed 107 Million; GlobalDeaths Exceed 2.35 Million; UNITED STATES CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 500K;Coronavirus Article 33 published on 2/9/21.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple-few days.
The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
The nations on the list below are experiencing the worst pandemic
outbreaks currently (based on the data which nations may or may not be
reporting truthfully) and are the worst global hotspots. The data is helpful in
identifying broad regions that are experiencing outbreaks.
The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks in active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of
the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan are
back in good graces after defeating the latest virus waves which proved
difficult.
Israel is delivering vaccinations faster than any other
country at the rate of 79 doses per 100 people. The UAE is at 51 doses per 100
people, the UK is 26, US 18, Chile 15, and Turkey 8 doses per 100 people.
Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus
decides to dissipate and move on or die on its own accord. Many past viruses
linger for about 18 months and then fade away. The COVID-19 saga is ongoing for
13 months although cases may have been occurring in the United States in
November 2019 which is 16 months ago.
Belgium (Third Wave) (there are
issues with the data; numbers are likely higher; it appears the daily case
numbers are likely suppressed)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever for third wave)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (conditions slowly improving)
Egypt (Second Wave)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date(cases
starting to ramp higher again)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
Ireland (Third Wave) (problematic
data hampers analysis; the daily new cases are likely underreported)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
Bahrain (Third Wave)
2/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 9/16/20, 2/12/21 and 2/15/21)
2/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
France (Third Wave)
2/17/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
3/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Peru (Third Wave begins)
2/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 8/16/20 and 2/18/21)
3/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Qatar (Second Wave)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date
3/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Czechia (Fourth Wave begins)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
3/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
France is in terrible shape.
The daily new cases remain robust and strong driving the active cases chart
higher and higher. France! Get your act together! France is one of the few
nations that are the worst in the entire world. What is going on there? Put the
wine, baguette and cigarettes down and go home and social distance. France is
going to implement the ‘crisis organization’ plan which will provide more
hospital beds, increase staffing and delay non-essential surgeries. This should
have already been done. Do it! Chop, chop. You are under siege France. Wake up!
The outbreak in France may impact all of Europe.
Czechia takes a turn for the
worse beginning a fourth wave higher. Czechia has been beaten like a rented
mule over the last year. Sweden deaths spike higher by 33 deaths yesterday
which must be watched closely.
Peru falls back into covid
Hell. Deaths in Peru are approaching the same levels as the first wave. In the
worst news of this article, 50% to 60% of Peruvians that were infected with
coronavirus in the past are now infected with a new variant! This is extremely
troubling. Copper prices have shot to the moon since many mine workers are ill.
Keep an eye on Chile. It rolled its active cases chart over lower but the
country may be experiencing a developing problem. Bolivia, Peru and Chile are continuing
to battle the pandemic.
India needs to tread softly.
The daily new cases are taking a tiny move higher, ditto active cases, which
may forecast major trouble for India ahead. Try to nip it in the bud, India! If
an outbreak occurs in India going forward, you are witnessing the exact
conception right now. Malaysia and Indonesia remain hot spots but they have
improved.
The United States was taken
off the bad list since its active cases curve is rolling-over to the downside.
The worst covid nations are France, Czechia, Qatar, Bahrain and Peru, which is
central and western Europe, Middle East and western side of South America as
the worst hot spots. The world is in the best shape it has been in 4 or 5
months.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have failed
to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The pandemic has greatly improved despite all the drama with
the vaccine roll-out. The number of Americans infected with coronavirus over
the last year may be far higher than thought, due to the asymptomatic nature of
the disease, so herd immunity may not be as far away as expected. Let’s hope
the variants do not crush the hope and optimism.
Oregon (Third Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher trying to flatten)
Indiana (Third Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve peaking now)
Washington (Third Wave)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
Kansas (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
Maine (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Alaska (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Arizona (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart is flattening)
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Kentucky
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Delaware (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Hawaii (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Maryland (Third Wave)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
New York (Second Wave)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flattening)
South Carolina (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Virginia (Second Wave)
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Considering the US active cases curve above and how it is
sloping lower perhaps about to take a strong leg lower, which is a good thing
(less active cases), it would be expected that far more of the active cases
charts for the states would have rolled over to the downside, but they have
not. The next couple weeks are a pivotal time in the pandemic. The US is at an
inflection point and the hope is that the variants are manageable and the path
is down with daily new cases and active cases.
There are nightly protests and riots in Portland and other
Oregon cities which may be promoting the ongoing spread of coronavirus. California’s
active cases curve rolls-over to the downside and mimics the US active cases
chart as it should since it is such a populace state. California has a heavy
weighting in the USA data.
Most states above have daily new cases trending lower for a
few weeks but the active cases curves continue higher. You can smell a rat in
some of that data. It will probably be discovered in the future that the daily
new cases are underreported for at least a few of the states above. When it
comes to numbers, never try to fool a mathematician.
Texas, USA, is hit with a major winter storm over the last
week which crippled the electrical power grid that is not hooked up to another
state’s grid (so they cannot be saved). Texas implemented rolling blackouts for
several days and frigid temperatures burst water pipes that are not insulated
for that warmer climate. Texas remains in chaos although power has been
restored for most of the state.
The vaccinations were halted in Texas and other states since
many roads are impassable. The FedEx and UPS trucks coming out of their
warehouse hubs in Tennessee and Kentucky could not make vaccine deliveries due
to the weather conditions. The Texas ship will try to be righted in the week
ahead.
Biden plans to sign a disaster declaration for Texas that is
hit with the winter storm and devastating power outages. The Texas disaster
will cost millions if not perhaps billions in damage. Home Depot and Lowe’s
will be selling copper pipe, solder and propane gas cylinders like gangbusters.
Everyone across the south is kissing the plumber’s *ss crack that is always on
display when he is working under the kitchen sink. Plumbers are the most
popular people in America right now especially Texas.
Texas republican Senator Ted Cruz is under fire for taking a
vacation to Cancun as people in his state are dying in the disaster. Lyin’ Ted
is now Flyin’ Ted. An elderly couple was found dead in Texas, lying in their
recliner, frozen to death. How could this happen in America? Texas hangs its
head in shame. Cruz’s political future is toast.
New York democrat Governor Cuomo, given credit for properly
handling the pandemic, that is now worse again, is under intense criticism with
officials calling for his resignation or impeachment over the nursing home
scandal. Cuomo allegedly hid about one-half of the nursing home deaths. He sent
thousands of elderly folks back to the homes last year that were sick with
covid and they and others died. Thousands died. Cuomo’s political future is
toast.
President Biden proclaims, “I believe we will be approaching
normalcy by the end of this year, but I cannot make that commitment to you.”
Biden also says the vaccine shipments are ordered but the weather may hamper
deliveries. He is being more candid and straight forward with the public which
is needed after one year of King Donnie telling everyone all is fine as 400K
American bodies are carried to the morgue.
CNN runs a story about Maria Aulenbacher, 111 years young, receiving a vaccine. Maria was alive during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Her life will be bookended by once-in-a-century pandemics.
Americans finally take a deep breath and relax. The pandemic
is at a calm place right now. The data is the best it has been in four months.
Things are looking up and trending in the right direction. Are the Americans
seeing the eye of the storm with the backside (variants) yet to come, or, has
the covid storm passed and the calm is here to stay? The US fears a fourth
wave, or fourth surge, as some prefer.
The key takeaway is to watch the US daily new cases chart
above. Watch to see if the new cases punch up through the 7-day MA as
explained. That is a bad thing and then if the daily new cases exceed 100K
trending higher, America is screwed. This will mean that the new variant/s,
probably the UK’s B117, is smacking the USA. If the daily new cases remain
under the 7-day MA, every day forward is wine and roses.
In the time it took to finish today’s article, the US
coronavirus deaths are 509,711 as per Worldometer a whisker from 510K dead. The
IHME projects 495K dead today. The Johns-Hopkins deaths are at 496K today and
should cross the dreaded 500K mark tomorrow or Monday.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/21/21: Australia kicks off its vaccination program with Prime Minister Scott Morrison rolling up his sleeve. The standard public relations move is repeated around the world to instill confidence in the huddled masses. Of course a few elderly folks are paraded across the television screen as well an 85-year old rolling up her sleeve encouraging everyone to take the jab. A poll from the Aussie health department says 9% will never take the jab, 27% are on the fence and 64% definitely plan to take the shot. The breakdown is similar to other nations except for the UK which is over 80% compliance; Brit's blindly do whatever they are told. Aussies are a lot alike rural Americans; straight-forward folks with common sense. The anti-vaxxer's march in protest of the vaccination program with signs such as "Think While It Is Still Legal" and "Freedom Of Choice Is Important." The anti-vaccination demonstrators march and chant, "My Body, My Choice," which it is, unless a government says it is not. The world is coming up fast on a global anti-vaccination juggernaut. In a couple months, everyone that wants to be vaccinated in many Western nations will be vaccinated. What happens in April-June when the vaccine supplies are stacking up but people are not willing to roll-up their sleeves? If the bulk of the population does not get vaccinated, herd immunity does not occur. What will the feeble politicians decide? Will they force the huddled masses to the ground and shoot the mRNA vaccines into their veins whether they want it or not? It is interesting times. The plot thickens. 509,875 Americans are dead from coronavirus. CNN reports 498K Americans dead. The J-H data may cross 5 hundo thou later today. A half a million dead bodies is a lot. 400K are on King Donnie Trump's watch and 100K on Sleepy Joe Biden's watch.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/21/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Governor Cuomo says the South Africa variant B1351 is detected in New York. The first case of B1351 was discovered one month ago and there are now 21 cases in 10 states. There is likely more cases but the DNA sequencing capabilities in the US are limited. Cuomo touts the B1351 news trying to divert attention away from the nursing home scandal. Folks, look at this shiny bobble over here. Fauci says the data is looking better but he cautioned against complacency. He said Americans may have to wear masks into 2022. President Biden will wave the '500K Americans dead' banner early in the week to garner support for the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The cable news outlets will make a big deal of the grim 500K milestone. It is hard to grasp the number. If you filled 10 professional baseball or football stadiums with people, and then marched them off to their deaths, that is 500K dead people. Think back to the last time you sat in your home team stadium enjoying a sporting event; a professional football or baseball game. Picture the entire stadium filled, every seat, and realize that not only everyone in the stadium, but 10 times that amount, have died of coronavirus over the last year. It is amazing a bug can do that.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/21/21, at 2:40 PM EST: MSNBC cable news outlet announces 500K dead Americans from coronavirus. A red headline crosses the television, nicknamed a red-head, "US SURPASSES 500,000 COVID-19 DEATHS." A sad milestone. CNN news has not yet called the 500K level; it will probably be its major focus tomorrow. Johns-Hopkins medical professor Dr Makary states the case for herd immunity by April! Makary's data is based on over 100 million Americans already stricken with covid far above current known levels and estimates. The flu season is non-existent this year. Doctors say the masking, social distancing and other measures have curbed the flu season this year making it nonexistent. Perhaps the government wants to train you to accept and embrace masks which some will say are ultimately a form of submissive control.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/21/21: The back-to-school controversy continues. Biden falls down on the job when it comes to providing guidance on reopening schools. In fairness, it is a complicated subject. There are students from grade school to college in many different settings and locations, some are cramped inner city, others are in spacious rural areas. Biden promised that children will be back in school within his first 100 days. That deadline is April Fool's Day, 4/1/21, only 5 weeks away. At a town hall meeting hosted by CNN, Biden stumbled saying he wants kindergarten through 8th grade to return. Then there is the cheesy definition that returning to school one measly day per week will meet Biden's goal that kids are back in school. That is flimsy fig leaf. If teachers want vaccinated, vaccinate them! Most old folks will tell you to take care of the teachers. Most elderly folks would rather see the teachers vaccinated and schools reopened; they see the hardship of their kids and grandchildren and when you are older you are mostly sitting at home watching television anyway. A delay in the shot for healthy elderly people would not be a big deal and most would encourage it if it removes the barrier of some teachers returning to work. Schools are controlled environments with teachers and students following masking guidelines, social distancing, hand washing and using hand sanitizer. Compare that to the local grocery store where Billy, the boy that typically retrieves the carts from the parking lot, picks his nose and then offers you the cart. Nellie, the checkout girl, is wearing her mask over her chin while corralling a cough with the back of her hand. You have an itch under your mask so you pick your nose and lips and then hand Nell the credit card. Do you get the picture? People are not worried about walking through a covid playground at the local grocery store, but there is great fear of a controlled environment a school would offer. Teachers, get back to work in the classroom. The children need to talk with each other so they realize they are going through the same stuff and that will increase their happiness and nurture a better mental attitude. Teachers, the classroom needs you, besides, your butt's are getting too big anyway from inactivity; time to start moving those cheeks. Vacation's over. Lots of teachers are champing at the bit to get back with their students in the classroom. The teachers afraid of coronavirus may as well choose another career path because viruses will now be an issue in American schools for many years to come.
Note Added Monday Morning, 2/22/21: India wants to make sure the world knows that it will help other countries but it is focused on handling the pandemic in its nation first. The 'vaccine diplomacy' takes a back seat as 'vaccine nationalism' rears its ugly head again. Countries would be wise to steer away from nationalistic behavior since it created the long Great Depression in the 1930's. Nations slit each other's throats focusing on themselves so it all went down the rabbit hole. Countries should relax and consider that over the coming months there will be plenty of vaccine available since millions of people never plan to take the shot. The US is playing catch-up this week doubling-up on vaccine shipments and deliveries as the winter cold snap subsides. Texas remains a mess an embarrassment to itself. The Texans made bad decisions on their energy plan. One of Keystone's many career hats is a professional engineer. The reason that winterization was not provided is likely money. Companies and governments are cheap so they saved money not placing the proper systems in place and this is for both the conventional fuel sources such as oil, gas and coal, and the new green energy sources such as windmills and solar. All failed. Every energy system has many ancillary systems with liquids, water and other gases flowing through pipes so it did not matter what the energy method was, everything was screwed. Specifications are written and approved for every piece of equipment. The engineers likely recommended winterization but bean-counter's that lick management's shoes, nixed it. That's the way it goes in the engineering business the last four decades. Keystone always documented the refusal of the companies he consulted for to do the right thing because the Texas debacle is always the end result. The witchhunt begins and the knock on the engineers door occurs with management saying, "You screwed-up." Keystone would simply bring up the documentation and emails on the computer from the prior meetings and tell the bosses, "Nope, you screwed-up, jackass." They never liked hearing that especially when they realized someone knew that they were going to be stupid in advance of them being stupid, and then knew they would show up to try and place blame. Humans are predictable animals. If you are a reporter, simply acquire the scopes of work for the engineering projects; they should be public knowledge. It will be listed in the contract who is responsible for winterization and that tells you who is at fault. Keystone has seen this type of finger-pointing before. The engineering companies, politicians and others involved all know what is in those contracts and they know who is at fault. It all comes out in the wash.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 2/22/21: Copper prices are going through the roof as coronavirus cases climb in Peru. Sadly, 50% to 60% of the Peruvians sick with covid a year ago are becoming infected again. Peru, Chile and Bolivia are the world's copper fields so supply is hampered sending prices higher. Expectations of a growing economy as covid subsides also sends commodity prices higher. Gasoline and food will bump higher in price over the coming days and few weeks. Humorously, three short guys in colorful alpaca poncho's are running around the world's copper mine in Peru, Chile and Bolivia, trying to keep it going; one is running the shovel, one is running the truck and the other the wash plant. A three-day COVID-19 Forum begins with the CDC and others participating. A goal of the forum is helping educate brown and black folks about coronavirus and to build vaccine confidence. The medical folks are using all tools possible to encourage people to get vaccinated. Humorously, Israel is enticing the anti-vaccination citizens by offering free beer and alcohol shots and it is working with some people rolling up their sleeves and then becoming plastered.
Note Added Monday Evening, 2/22/21: Just before 5 PM EST, CNN calls 500K dead Americans. It is about time. Something smells. The Worldometer data blew through 500K days ago. MSNBC, who is typically CNN's liberal media partner in crime, called the 500K Americans dead on Sunday, yesterday, over a day ago now. What gives? CNN begins the 5 PM EST news cast with the 500K red head and hyping the "We Remember 500,000" special television show that will air later in the evening. The choreographed event continues with the Whitehouse planning a memorial event for the 500K dead that begins within the hour. At 6 PM, President Biden and First Lady Jill, and Vice President Harris, and Second Gentlemen Doug, offered a minute of silence outside the Whitehouse with 100 lighted candles each signifying 5,000 deaths. The event was seamless with the Johns-Hopkins announcement of 500K deaths, CNN's hype and set-up, and then on to the Whitehouse memorial event. It is not surprising that CNN is in the bag for Sleepy Joe Biden, as is MSNBC, everyone knows that, as everyone knew that Fox News and Newsmax were the state-run media for republican King Donnie Trump. The disappointment is in Johns-Hopkins. You want to think that J-H provides independent data, research and perspective but you can clearly see the choreographed event tonight was likely a result of CNN, Biden's Whitehouse and J-H, comingling in bed together on light blue satin sheets. The JH data stalled at 498.9K for almost two days before it clicked over as the memorial event was on tap. The data release appears timed which is not cool. Data is data. Keystone is a mathematician and it feels like the numbers have just been soiled. Johns-Hopkins takes a credibility hit and would be wise to distance itself from such political tomfoolery and theatrics, otherwise, people will begin to view the institution as untrustworthy. Do not lay in bed with politicians and media; it will make you dirty and the stink does not wash off easily. Coronavirus is a political pandemic.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 2/23/21: German Chancellor Merkel is waving her arms warning of a third wave descending upon the Deutschland. Merkel's concern may be unwarranted because the daily new cases and active cases charts continue lower; the charts look great. Merkel is a smart cookie so maybe she is looking at more detailed up to the minute data, otherwise, there may be a political game going on where Germany wants to maintain the fear of covid on its population, for whatever reason. There is substantive social unrest in Germany with many citizens sick of the pandemic and wanting life to be the way it was. Merkel may be keeping the worry of COVID-19 alive to keep the hounds at bay. Merkel deserves a few days benefit of the doubt to see if coronavirus infections worsen. In fairness to Merkel, France remains in very bad shape with covid, and Czechia, so she is likely worried that the virus is boxing Germany in. She should be. France does not seem to have its act together in fighting the virus but that is easy for a yank to say from across the pond.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 2/23/21: Pfizer and Moderna say they plan to double their output of vaccine. A UK study from De Montfort University says the virus lasts on 100% cotton material for 24 hours. The virus may last 72 hours on some textiles. The study suggests that healthcare workers should have their clothes laundered at the hospital or medical facility rather than washing at home.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 2/23/21: The Texas power outage tragedy continues. Texans must continue boiling water which is a difficult way to live. Water pressure is low, if it exists, so bacteria in the lines is a worry. Companies have relocated to Texas from other states to save on taxes. How's that working out for you? Vaccinations trailed off during the tragedy but Texas is quickly coming back up to speed. Texas is a tragedy that should have never happened. America Mediocrity sinks the Lonestar State. People need to get their face out of Facebook and do their jobs.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 2/24/21: "The View" television personality and political commentator, Meghan McCain, daughter of the late Arizona Senator, and a spitfire in her own right, takes Dr Fauci to task batting him around like a cat with a ball of yarn. McCain criticizes Fauci over mixed messaging about masks. At the start of the panic, Fauci said not to wear a mask, then you needed to wear a mask, now two masks. A lot of Americans have reached the end of their pandemic rope. McCain decrees, "The messaging is incredibly inconsistent and confusing." McCain takes off the gloves and goes for Tony's jugular proclaiming, "I also believe sainting our public figures to infallibility is dangerous and irrational." Don't hold back Meghan, tell us how you really feel. Humorously, she s a pistol and she fired both barrels at 'lil Doc Fauci. Others take swipes at Fauci as he was on the ropes. The good doctor is well-regarded in America for several decades but there is skepticism about his involvement with the Wuhan laboratories before the pandemic. Fauci had a far higher popularity and favorability rating than former President Trump. The unsold miniature Fauci dolls, however, are lying in the after-Christmas bargain bin at Walmart. Over time, Fauci will have to inform America as to what exactly was occurring in the Wuhan laboratories with the coronavirus research the US taxpayers were supporting. Fauci knows more about this research than discussed. Did China release the coronavirus bioagent intentionally or by accident? Inquiring minds want to know. Fauci is likely a victim of timing. He probably planned to retire and ride off into the sunset before covid hit. He likely wanted to write a book and go on tour to receive daily accolades. Anthony probably envisioned a ticker tape parade, a gold watch, a trophy, awards and plaques, a luncheon with rubber chicken and cold ravioli and even perhaps a wing of a building named after him, or at least a conference room. Instead, China releases COVID-19 upon the world and the pandemic battle rages on one year later. Timing is everything in life; it certainly is in stock trading. Fauci probably would have been wise to exit stage right in 2019 but by not doing so, he will likely ride it out through to 2022 or 2023 to get that rubber chicken lunch. He may retire now but typically someone who has done a lot for the country would not want to leave in the middle of a once in a century pandemic. The Fauch should simply become a 'goodwill ambassador' for the US healthcare system and speak generally on topics. He talks too much off the cuff which has created the confusion. Yesterday, in an interview, he says that folks should follow the "three or four recommendations from the CDC." Think about that. A common person hearing that thinks wow, that guy is the head doctor but he does not even know if there are three or four things that we need to follow. Oh well, Hell with it then. This is the way a common person thinks. Fauci should unequivocally state thee are four guidelines to follow and they are one, two, three, four. One of the problems is Fauci telling folks they can do a little bit of this, sure, try a little bit of that, maybe two masks, sometimes one mask but only on Tuesday's, sure follow those few guidelines, there's three or four, maybe five, you can look on a website; this mess is a failure at structured public relations (PR). However, Fauci is everybody's Uncle Bob that is nice to have around since he is always quick with a story, a joke and a smile; he is a goodwill ambassador. The pandemic has never had one good point person to handle the mess. Pence was inept. Dr Walensky would be a good fit as the point person but she may have enough on her plate. All information should be detailed, simplified, and go through her before hitting the public and anyone doing interviews, including The Fauch, must read those bullet points to themselves before they go on camera. If everyone stays on message, the public builds trust in what you are doing. The pandemic is a mess since the public has heard 27 different messages about masks, vaccines and social distancing. No one even listens anymore. The mask situation is a laughing stock. People routinely joke around about wearing a masks, hey, I use four masks, how about you? I use three masks, two on my head and one on my chin so I can breathe properly with my mouth and nose open. The mixed messages on masks over many months has turned into a farce. People do not take verbal messaging well; they cannot remember things. Write the covid instructions down in big bold letters as simple as possible. Use a numbered list. This should be easily printable from a web page or the slips of paper could be handed out by businesses. People need to hold the coronavirus pandemic instructions, including information on vaccines, physically in their hands, and most will not, or are unable to, access that information, that slip of paper, themselves. We will endure. Our Destiny awaits.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 2/24/21: On a happy note, more Americans are getting shots, 1.5 million doses per day, compared to people getting sick at 73K per day. More people being vaccinated versus people becoming sick is a good thing. Nearly 519K Americans are dead from covid as per Worldometer. The Johns-Hopkins death count is at 506K.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 2/24/21: The FDA says the one-shot J&J vaccine meets the requirements for emergency use authorization. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is extremely effective in preventing death from covid and may be best for people under 60 years old. The vaccine is 86% effective against severe COVID-19 illness. Only two patients in the study had adverse reactions. The effectiveness is lower for Americans, at 66%, but this is still on par or better than the average yearly flu vaccine. The FDA and CDC will continue their emergency approval procedures with meetings ongoing into the weekend when more news will be released. The downbeat side of the great Johnny John news is that only a few million vaccine doses can be shipped right away when the emergency approval is received, far less than promised. J&J says 20 million doses can be available by the end of March if emergency approval is received less than the 100 million touted the last few months. J&J is in business to make money and it looks like the pharma giant is waiting on the emergency approval before producing the vaccine in quantity. The healthcare workers, medical folks and pharma companies are doing everything they can so simply let nature take its course. The Moderna vaccine is being modified in the lab to better tackle the South Africa B1351 strain. The variant strain in California becomes nastier. The US may be christened with its own coronavirus strain; it can be called the American Flu. Or, depending on how things develop, maybe the California Flu. There is also a nasty variant expanding in New York. The variant picture is becoming a bit dicey.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 2/25/21: Germany daily new cases spike to the highest in three weeks. France's daily new cases leap higher to 31,519 cases the highest since mid-November! What is going on in France? President Macron? Bueller? Macron? No wonder Merkel has been concerned and it looks like France's infections are going to spread to Germany. Czechia sees a huge spike in daily new cases. Netherlands sees a slight elevation in cases. Oh no. Italy daily new cases jump to 16,424 cases the highest since 1/14/21 almost six weeks ago. Merkel was justified in her concerns. Covid, perhaps the new UK strain B117, swept across Portugal and Spain (these were hotspots a month ago) into France which is a mess now with the covid situation worsening. Belgium and Netherlands are next in line where cases rise. The worrisome trend is Italy that may be worsening now so it is easy to see how that covid wave is moving across Europe from west to east. Czechia says their hospitals are overrun and healthcare workers are at 'absolute exhaustion'. People remember and praise you forever when you help them through their trouble times. Of all countries hammered by the China Flu over the last year, Czechia has endured an unfair burden; Czechian's are strong resilient people to endure their non-stop covid Hell. Germany is getting bombarded from all sides and will unfortunately sink into the coronavirus quagmire over the coming days and weeks. Italy would be smart to immediately implement measures to stop COVID-19, otherwise, the disease will likely spread across the boot-shaped nation. France needs to get their act together. It is past the time to put down that wine, baguette and cigarettes, and get serious. French hospitals are going to be hurting during March. European leaders should meet and have a plan of attack for France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and others. They do. The EU and others are meeting today to discuss the pandemic. CDC Director Dr Walensky is concerned that the variants will "stand to reverse" all the good work done to stop covid. The B117 and B1351 strains are the near-term focus. Walensky, and other medical professionals, such as Dr Hotez, say we will never be rid of COVID-19 until it is eradicated around the world which means the third world countries have to be integrated into the vaccine programs, as they should be. Humans should realize we are all stuck with each other on this planet so we should follow the wise words of Rodney King and 'just get along with each other'. Even if the US reaches herd immunity in a few months, America will have to remain vigilant until the entire world is immune, or covid dies off. This is why Fauci and other doctors say mask use in the US may continue into 2022 (which is meant with fury by pandemic-fatigued folks that are sick of masks; we're all sick of masks). Pandemics are not fun; simply ride the wave and do not try to fight it. "Be water, my friend," is what Bruce Lee would say.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 2/25/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Happily, the US daily new cases chart remains in check with new cases remaining below the 7-day MA; this is very good news and becomes better for America each day it holds. The US active cases curve is rolling over nicely creating the bell shape. The US will be in great shape if the variants are held at bay. Europe may be falling into trouble again; France and Italy better act now. Chop, chop! The US is hanging in there but keep fingers crossed. Bloomberg says a Czechian official warns of 'Hellish days ahead' and a 'tighter lockdown coming'. Czechia is the punching bag of the coronavirus pandemic. Poor folks.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 2/25/21, at 3:00 PM EST: The CDC says some people that were infected by covid months ago are becoming infected again including folks at nursing homes. The second onset is worse for the patient. Peru is dealing with a reinfection situation and should be talking with the CDC exchanging notes on the reinfection dilemma for mutual benefit.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 2/25/21, at 5:00 PM EST: President Biden takes a bow for 50 million vaccinations occurring in 37 days. He promised 100 million vaccinations within the first 100 days (4/1/21) which some criticize as too easy a goal. Biden says, "I am here to report that we are halfway there." The president is on pace to easily beat the goal. Overall, however, the vaccine pace remains far too slow to achieve herd immunity by summer time, unless a lot more Americans have been sick with covid than statistics estimate. The president says, "This is not the time to relax" and "we have a long way to go." He says. "We're moving in the right direction" and "the more people get vaccinated, the faster we're gonna beat this pandemic." Biden then conducts a virtual meeting with state governors to exchange ideas at handling the pandemic. The politicians and medical officials are increasingly worried about the B117 variant spreading in New York and on the East Coast.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 2/25/21: The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package continues through the House to move on to the Senate where it will be scrutinized. Common Americans suffer daily while the elite sleep on satin sheets. According to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker, over 68 million doses are shipped with nearly 14 million Americans receiving two doses and nearly 7 million receiving one dose thus far. Everyone is doing what they can but this will not get the US to herd immunity. America is at a disappointing 1.3 million doses per day vaccination rate below the 1.5 of recent days. The US vaccinations are slowing but this is mainly due to the winter storm enveloping the nation and Texas whacked hard. The math exercises above and in the last three articles explain herd immunity in number's terms and it does not look likely by Labor Day. If another 210 million people need vaccinated in the US (420 million doses at 2 per person), it will take 280 days to achieve herd immunity which is 12/3/21 well into the new flu and covid season. The US is going to have to deal with the anti-vaccination crowd in April and May which is only a tougher row to hoe. A majority of folks will never take a vaccine no matter what you tell them. Medical folks need to plan accordingly instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Those who fail to plan (for the guaranteed outcome that millions of Americans will refuse to take the vaccine), are planning to fail. The big hope is that far more Americans have been sick with coronavirus over the last year than the statistics show. The asymptomatic nature of the disease creates this possibility and if true, less people require vaccinations to achieve herd immunity. Millions of folks would already have antibodies from natural exposure to covid. The other hope is that coronavirus simply fritters away, like many past viruses, after about 18 months of wreaking havoc. This would be a June-ish time frame.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/26/21, at 4:10 AM EST: Global stock markets are nervous these days with a big sellloff occurring in US markets yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrials Average lost 560 points and the S&P 500 lost nearly 100 points. The coronavirus bioweapon released by China brings the world to its knees. China is using anal swabs on its citizens to test for covid. Chinese doctors believe that coronavirus can be detected in excrement for a longer period of time than a nasal or throat swab but science does not yet verify this claim. US personnel in China are told to unequivocally refuse such testing. What will the dirtbag CCP come up with next? They likely are performing the anal swabs, wanting foreigners to bend over and oblige, to build their DNA and other sick human data bases. The CCP are deranged mentally-ill bastards. The Chinese folks, however, have no choice but to live under the CCP's sick authoritarian rule.
Note Added Friday Morning, 2/26/21, at 5:51 AM EST: GLOBAL DEATHS FROM COVID-19 EXCEED 2.5 MILLION. Global coronavirus cases are near 114 million. Hungary is sending out a cry for help proclaiming that it faces the two worst weeks of the pandemic ahead. In the United States, 29 million people have been infected with covid and 520,785 have died.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 2/26/21: CDC Director Walensky and others are warning about daily new cases rising for the last couple days. The variants are starting to spread in the US so healthcare professionals are pleading with people to take the vaccine if you have any chance of doing so. The back-to-school controversy continues in America. The teacher's union in California remains concerned about teachers returning to classrooms. Most parents are fed-up with the drama even in liberal-leaning La La Land. Parents organize a Zoom blackout event refusing to logon the platform for the daily remote learning. They take to the streets in cars to protest the closed schools. Economies cannot function unless the kids are in school. The LAUSD (Los Angeles Unified School District) is not unified. Time to return to work, teachers, everyone needs you. Look at the grocery store clerks that make peanuts; they have been in the trenches the whole time. Most teachers want to return to school but for those that do not, it is time to get off your butt and start moving.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 2/27/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Queen Elizabeth happily tosses her crown into the vaccination ring telling everyone it is their obligation to take the shot to be respectful of others. The Queen decrees that people "ought to think about other people rather than themselves." She says the jab "didn't hurt at all." Prince Charles had received the vaccine and experienced mild symptoms that were quickly brushed under the rug hidden from the public. The Queen does not have to worry since the Brit's are the obeying sort, like the Israeli's. This is why over one-half of Israel's population is already vaccinated and over one-third of the UK. The Brit's continue the vaccination program based on age. Other countries, with more independent-minded folks, like the US, may experience more difficulty with vaccinations. Some people will immediately kneel, obey and comply when government declares an edict while other independent souls question the common sense of each proclamation before acting. Germany is already hitting a brick wall of anti-vaxxer's and the program is barely off the ground. German Health Minister Jens Spahn says the vaccination program needs to ramp-up and proclaims, "We still have too much vaccine in the fridge." Only 5% of Germany's population has had one shot and only 2% two shots. Officials are worried about a third wave hitting the Deutschland. A recent poll shows 55% of Americans are fully willing to take the vaccine. Ecuador Health Minister Juan Carlos Zevallos resigns in shame. Latin America is engulfed in a scandal where the elite classes are preferentially giving themselves vaccine, 'the VIP group', instead of helping the elderly, healthcare workers and ambulance drivers. Humans are greedy animals. Nothing will ever change that. Copper prices soar higher in part due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreaks in Peru, Bolivia and Chile where the world's largest and most important copper mines are located.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 2/27/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Former President Trump is scheduled to speak at the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Committee) conference tomorrow. The event brings together the radical right wing of the republican party so mask-wearing is ridiculed and mocked. In truth, masks may not do a lot to stop the virus. Coronavirus may be spreading more through touch with fingers and hands transferring the tiny particles to the eyes, nose and mouth. Science remains unable to tell the public exactly how the virus is spread and what proportion of the transmission occurs with each method (coughing and breathing in particles versus someone handling products on a shelf after sneezing and picking their nose and then someone touching the same stuff seconds or minutes later). All that said, wear a mask. One, when in Rome do like the Romans. If they wear a toga, you wear a toga. Two, Americans wore masks during the Spanish Flu pandemic 100 years ago so it is not a new concept. Three, the Asian nations are far more successful at combatting COVID-19, without vaccinations, and this is done through masking and social distancing, and then intense testing, tracking and tracing the instant any outbreak occurs. America completely failed on all counts but in fairness, Asia was in America's boat a couple decades ago. The Untied States now has to develop a pandemic preparedness plan that will shorten that two-decade Asia learning curve down to a couple years for America. All we have to do is follow what works instead of reinventing the wheel. The US can fully return to the way life used to be but at the same time be prepared if another virus-style bioweapon is released by China. Some doctors and scientists believe that if everyone in America would dutifully wear a N95 mask for one month, COVID-19 would be eradicated. Trump grossly mismanaged the pandemic and is the main reason he lost the election. Once a virus is out of control, it is hard to corral it and put it back in the bottle. That is what the Asian nations learned. Tracking and testing programs are not effective unless the positive testing rate is below 5% and preferably below 1%. Otherwise, like now in America, there are so many infections that tracing and tracking programs are useless; the virus cat already jumped out of the bag. Americans will be curious about King Donnie's speech since it is the first official talk after he left office. It will likely be more of the clown show with Donnie saying he won the election. The republicans are becoming caricatures of themselves. The event is displaying a six-foot gold-colored statue of Trump. That is hilarious. The attendees are wandering in the political desert worshipping the golden bull. The republicans will probably take turns kneeling in front of the statue kissing Donnie's feet. Worship the golden idol. Pay homage to the pagan king. It's priceless. The republicans subordinated themselves and their souls to King Donnie Trump. The democrats are no better trying to jam through the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill loaded with pork unrelated to the virus. No wonder America's crony capitalism system is in its final throes.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 2/27/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Scientists are considering recommending the J&J vaccine for younger folks while using the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines on the older population. Interestingly, do you think the medical authorities are still unsure if the messenger RNA has a lasting impact on human DNA? Nah, that couldn't be be the reason, could it? If you are old, and your DNA becomes messed-up from the mRNA shot, it does not matter since the casket is not that far away anyway, however, if young, that would be carried for life and potentially passed on to offspring. Current animal testing shows that the mRNA vaccine is not harming the DNA but it is a new technology (in development for 25 years but remains a babe in the woods). Medical folks are taking the mRNA vaccines without worry or concern so they are eating their own cooking which is important.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 2/27/21, at 6:00 AM EST: US daily new cases bar chart has increased four consecutive days and the daily cases are beginning to rise above the 7-day moving average (MA). This is terrible news. The US active cases curve continues lower but it hints that it may begin to flatten. We do not want that; we need it to drop. The active cases already flattened and rolled-over. To flatten now only means it will move sideways and then likely increase again as per the disastrous red dotted-lines shown in the US active cases chart above. The US needs to battle over the next couple weeks. Wear the masks and social distance. All efforts should be redoubled, however, we have seen this story before. It is difficult to give up partying, singing, dancing and kissing pretty girls.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 2/27/21: The FDA provides emergency approval for the J&J vaccine. The vaccine is the third receiving the emergency approval, it is a one-shot jab and it is a non mRNA shot. Some of the vaccine hesitancy crowd will open up to taking, what is viewed as, a more conventional style shot similar to the yearly flu shot. Good news should be celebrated since there is not much of it over the last year. Johnny John, as the stock traders call it, says several million doses can be shipped over the next week and 100 million doses by June. The vaccine can be stored in a regular refrigerator for three months a huge advantage over the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines. The CDC, FDA and J&J will release guidelines on using the vaccine over the coming days.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/28/21, 2:00 AM EST: Many of Canada's elderly died in nursing homes last spring during the lockdown. Information is coming out that many of those deaths were likely caused by understaffing and the government and institutions not allowing family members to see their loved ones. The world is knocked on its back by the Wuhan Flu. Once the planet recovers, all nations, sans China, will have to unite and pay Dictator Xi a visit and ask him what he is cooking up in his bioweapon labs. China owes the world reparations. They know it and that is why they are placing themselves on a war footing. The filthy communists even tried to say that the coronavirus started in Australia which has summarily been rejected by the medical community. The coming months and few years will be dicey. The West would be well-advised to place its nations on a war footing going forward, and likely are.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/28/21, 3:00 AM EST: Tragic news. Italy's daily new cases continue escalating and the active cases curve curls higher. This is terrible. Italy is in serious trouble with a new outbreak beginning; wave three. Coronavirus is too difficult to shake. Eradicating COVID-19 almost seems hopeless. Perhaps the pandemic will end when the virus chooses to walk away and not a minute before. France remains in terrible shape with its active cases curve continuing steadily higher since October! Where is President Macron? Bueller? What is going on in France? During the last month, German Chancellor Merkel is the only one correct in her constant vigilance and warnings about the virus increasing again. Sorry, Angela, the news is not good. Germany's daily cases are creeping higher and the active cases curve is now curling higher. Netherlands daily new cases are ramping higher. Belgium's active cases curve continues higher and higher like France. This is extremely ugly stuff folks. Deal Lord the All Mighty! Look at Czechia; it is devastated by covid. Czechia daily new cases continue to spike at record highs and the active cases curve has gone parabolic to the highest point ever. Czechia is in extremely bad shape. Perhaps neighboring countries can help them. People never forget you when you help them in their time of need. Nor do animals a la Aesop's Fable's and the story of Androcles and the Lion. Think about it, humans. Poland's daily new cases jump higher and its active cases curve curls higher to begin a second wave. These charts are tragic. A new outbreak is hitting central and eastern Europe. Austria now sees elevated daily new cases and its active cases curve curls higher to begin a wave three. Europe descends into covid Hell again and they do not even realize what is coming. Spain and Portugal were bad a month ago but they are in good shape now with their active cases charts forming the bell curve shape and coming down sharply. The new coronavirus outbreak is spreading west to east across Europe. Perhaps it is the UK's B117 variant wreaking havoc. The only hope that the continent has is that the flare-up will be relatively short-lived. As bad as Spain and Portugal looked a month ago, things improved very fast and far quicker than would be expected. France, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Poland, Czechia and Austria are all in big trouble right now and over the next couple weeks and month. Europe is headed for a tragic late winter early spring period and that is guaranteed by the data and charts. Too bad for you. The major concern in addition to the obvious human tragedy and death is the world's economy. As Europe hits a brick wall each day forward and the population realizes a new outbreak is underway, the weak economy may collapse. If so, the ripples around the world will be intense and the global economy and stock markets may retreat in a big way forward. The ECB (European Central Bank) will step in to devalue the euro but the corresponding escalation in the US dollar will tank US stocks. China's largest trading partner is Europe so a new outbreak will hurt the communist's economy. These bad scenarios do not even account for the US slipping into a new wave of coronavirus misery. In Europe, the pandemic situation will worsen each day forward. Communist China, the filthy CCP, screwed the world with their coronavirus bioweapon. The world awaits its destiny.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/28/21, 5:00 AM EST: The total coronavirus cases cross above 29 million in the United States with 524,669 dead. The numbers are numbing after a while. Sadly, as murderer Joseph Stalin said, "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths a statistic." US daily new cases take a small pullback to 64K yesterday. A flat or lower move in daily new cases would be great; the key thing is to not see them rise The 7-day MA is flatter than a newlywed's soufflé so the direction it breaks is important (up is tragic and down is fantastic). The US active cases curve continues lower. Pray that it does not curl up like the European nations that are now descending into covid Hell. For now, America can keep breathing calmly but it is a day to day affair walking on eggshells. Europe is lost. In a week or so, Europeans will be screaming bloody murder as the pandemic accelerates. The news worsens with every chart. Brazil is experiencing an uptick in daily new cases and its active cases curve is curling higher again for a fourth wave. Brazilians have been through a lot but prepare yourself because things are about to get worse. Darn, India too. It is depressing looking at the charts. India's daily new cases are moving higher and its active cases curve now curls higher. India is starting a second wave right now. Keystone does not like being the bearer of bad news, the consummate wet blanket, even perhaps a distant relative of Michael the archangel, but this is real-time tragedy unfolding before your eyes. It is tragic but it has to be recorded and chronicled. As bad as Russia was for many months, the daily cases have finally subsided and the active cases bell curve forms and drops off. That's great for the Ruskies they have suffered a lot. The Russian people, like the Chinese, are great folks but they have to exist under, and obey, their dirtbag communist and authoritarian governments. This is the way the world works. The UK is another bright spot the Brit's have been through a lot. Once you look into evil's eyes, you receive religion, and that may be why the enthusiasm for vaccinations is robust in the UK. The Brit's have seen ugliness with their B117 strain. Men will walk around with their chests puffed-out displaying machismo and control upon an environment, but then realize how a virus can bring them to their knees, and into a hospital bed, and onto a ventilator, and begging for breath. Perhaps the cure to vaccine hesitancy is seeing the devastation and misery first-hand but by then, sometimes, it is too late for vaccinations to help. The bright spots are Russia, UK, Spain and Portugal. Central and western Europe need to bear down for a miserable covid-infected month ahead.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/28/21, 6:00 AM EST: The CPAC conference, a gathering of the right wing of the republican party, the Trump wing, if you will, is in its final day and the buzz will increase ahead of former President Trump's speech. The golden idol statue of King Donnie is receiving lots of media attention so it did its job which pulls eyeballs and attention into the convention. Poor Doc Fauci is a punching bag these days and CPAC speakers were batting away yesterday. South Dakota republican Governor Kristi Noem, pretty as punch with a pistol tongue, proclaims, "Doctor Fauci is wrong a lot" spending a few minutes raking him through the covid coals. It goes with the territory. When placing yourself on stage, you have to take the good with the bad. Noem blasts Fauci declaring open season on doc. The CPAC crowd flips, and shouts and spits, boos and jeers fly from their unmasked lips. President Biden took a trip to his home in Delaware this weekend, probably sleeping in his basement, and will likely introduce news this afternoon, or return to Washington, DC, or create some type of distraction event, timed with Trump's speech. This is how the political game is played. King Donnie speaks at 3:40 PM EST but the republicans may play games with the timing if they see a distraction occurring. Trump will no doubt claim single-handed credit later today for developing the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/28/21, at 3:20 PM EST: At the republican The CDC panel recommends the J&J vaccine for emergency approval so the process is moving along quickly. Trump delays his speech for an hour. The cat and mouse game continues. Trump will speak shortly and it is only carried on Fox News and Newsmax, the republican-leaning media. The left-leaning CNN and MSNBC cable news outlets are carrying regular programming ignoring the orange one's speech. This is the mirror image of Sleepy Joe Biden's state-run media campaign where CNN and MSNBC tout his happy messages daily while Fox News and Newsmax pummel Biden. Isn't the world of crony capitalism fantastic? The young people are smart not joining either corrupt tribe and instead registering as independents. The young folks will lead America in a new direction.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/28/21: At the republican CPAC event, former President Trump takes the stage. Trump says the coronavirus pandemic plan he had in place is proceeding smoothly. It's comical and makes you laugh. He left office and did not have a plan in place. He lies about the vaccination rate saying it was 1.5 million doses per day under his watch but in truth it had only ramped-up to 1.0 million. Trump is a routine effortless liar. Trump's incompetence in handling the pandemic and complete lack of planning is what cost him the election. He brags about the development of the vaccines but all he did was give every pharma company with a heartbeat a few billion dollars of taxpayer money and then sit back waiting for results. Comically, he wants to call it the Trump vaccine. He's too much; the orange-headed clown show continues. Donnie takes his swipes at the Fauci piñata saying the doctor was wrong about everything. Poor ole Doc Fauci; he is taking a beating this weekend. The doc can handle it. Humorously, the popular fuzzy Fauci dolls from Christmastime are lying in the bargain bin while the shelves now display Fauci punching bags and piñatas. Trump teases that he will run for president again. Of course he does since he wants the donation money to keep coming in that he can spend on flying around and other fun stuff. Trump extends the delusion about winning the election. Everyone knew that was guaranteed. Earlier, Trump was overheard telling an usher, and the lady doing the soundcheck at the podium, that he won the election. Insulting Jeb Bush with the "low-energy" moniker launched King Donnie's political career during the republican primaries in 2016. His speech tonight is low energy. Trump realizes he is not the president anymore; he becomes less interesting. Trump leans on the podium with a flat forearm, almost using it as support in a way, then shifts to the other side with the right forearm flat on the podium leaning forward. Remember the braggadocio days of King Donnie Trump? He would stand tall and erect, chest puffed, proclaiming to the world his greatness. The luster is off the rose. He looks tired. CPAC is the most die-hard right-wing folks that will walk over broken glass for the former president, however, the customary straw poll at the conclusion of the conference only shows 55% of attendees wanting him to be president again. You will not see Donnie as president again but there will be plenty of drama ahead from the Hollywood showman. "President Trump's Final 80 Days" after the election loss were a nightmare on Elm Street, er, Pennsylvania Avenue, with five dead bodies lying on the Capitol Building steps. That was a historic period in American history. Trump crashed and burned after the 11/3/20 election and is unable, to this day, to accept the defeat.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/1/21, at 4:00 AM EST: March is here and spring nears. Warmer weather will help eradicate coronavirus as folks are able to move around outside again. Perhaps all the children can return to school and with nicer weather in April and May, simply hold all the classes outside. Here in Pennsylvania, USA, as a kid, we would have loved that. Japan is forging ahead with plans for the Olympics games. For now, things look okay for the island nation with the active cases curve forming its bell shape and way down. However, yesterday's daily new cases bump higher so Japan better monitor the situation day by day. If the daily new cases rise for several days in a row, that is going to be bad new ahead for Japan.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/1/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Fauci says elementary school children will likely begin receiving vaccinations early 2022. A lot can happen over the next year so there is no point to thinking about that now. Fauci encourages people to not hesitate and take any of the three vaccines available. Two elderly folks in Australia are given too much vaccine in their shots but do not suffer any adverse effects. There have been mistakes with the vaccinations in all nations. It is understandable considering the millions of shots administered. Although people have had adverse effects from the vaccines, overall, the shots appear safe and receiving the vaccine is not going to kill you by any means. CDC Director Walensky signs off on the J&J vaccine so 4 million doses will be shipped as soon as Johnny John receives the paperwork. Each day is walking on covid eggshells waiting for charts to update. Good news. US daily new cases are down for three days in a row sub 50K. Keep holding your breath; the US is hanging in there. The US active cases curve is heading lower; pray that it does not hitch upward because if it does, that will be a covid knife into Uncle Sam's belly.
Note Added Monday Morning, 3/1/21, at 7:00 AM EST: France's active cases curve continues higher with the daily cases subsiding for four days off the spike high. The Coronavirus Chronology Article 35 update will be published over the next couple days but the back of the napkin calculation is that France will not see a flattening of their active cases curve until 3/24/21 a month from now. Hopefully, it will occur sooner. Using Spain as a fractal, there was 21 days between the peak in daily new cases and when the active cases bell curve peaked. Thus, applying the same fractal to France, as the disease moves west to east across Europe, would target 3/16/21 as when the active cases curve will flatten and begin rolling over. Thus, France needs to hide the wine, baguette and cigarettes until late March when the party can begin again. Italy's daily cases remain elevated but off the highs. One thing to remember is that the weekend data is lighter than the weekday data. The stage is set folks. The data this week on daily new cases and active cases in European nations and in the United States are going to predict how the remainder of the year will proceed pandemic-wise; either the healthy garden path of rose petals, euphoria and colorful spring blossoms, or, the sick COVID-19 path of despair, misery, death, vaccine hesitancy and crumbling economies. Which will it be?
