by K E Stone
Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has
infected over 2.6 million people around the world murdering 184,000 (184K) souls.
China’s killer virus has attacked and sickened over 850K Americans (0.3% of the
330 million US population) murdering nearly 48K United States citizens. One-third
of all the world’s coronavirus cases and more than one-fourth of the deaths are
in the United States. China's communist leadership did a number on America and must pay a price for
their nefarious deed and cover-up.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more
data and information are available. This is Article 5 in the coronavirus series
that serves as an archive and treasure trove of real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases ContinueRising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headedfor Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (ModernMonetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; CoronavirusArchive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The articles are spaced 10 days apart to
allow time for more data and information to accumulate so the Keystone Model
can be tweaked. This fifth article is published on 4/23/20, today, and the next
article, number six in the series, is tentatively slated for publishing on
Sunday, 5/3/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus around the world and its link is
provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by
Keystone.
TKSCIRM forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases
for any country or region. Major trouble is ahead when the number of new
coronavirus cases are increasing especially through the initial exponential
phase. The daily new cases are typically shown in a bar chart format. The first
thing to watch for with the Keystone Model is when the daily new cases begin
leveling-off typically into a choppy sideways move. It is key that the new
cases level off and begin drifting sideways lower since this will eventually
create the top in the active cases curve which is the bell curve. The active
case curve represents the maximum strain on the medical personnel and the hope
for all countries is that this curve flattens out and then rolls over to the
downside (the top of the bell forms and the virus cases begin dropping on the
right side of the bell). Thus, the two key charts to monitor and study are the new case barchart and the active case bell curve.
When anyone refers to “flattening the curve” this is
referencing the active case bell curve. Every Tom, Dick and Harry, including
the politicians, are using these terms recklessly only creating more confusion.
As you see the new cases level out, or flatten-out, this is NOT the ‘flattening
of the curve’. The active case bell curve is the chart that you want to see flatten and roll
over and is the chart to reference for "flattening the curve." This point cannot be emphasized enough since media outlets are now
routinely referring to the new case bar chart as flattening the curve. Don’t
do that!
Humorously, New York Governor Cuomo is using ‘hospitalizations’ as his key
chart focus but this data does not correlate to active case data. Cuomo should
define hospitalizations; does it include patients moved to a different hospital
or medical unit after the initial hospital? This illustrates the chaos and
confusion in the US with officials going off in different directions using
different naming conventions. A central focus is needed to get everyone on the
same page and talking the same data, apples and apples not apples and tomatoes or oranges and
cucumbers. Don’t hold your breath; America is now the land of mediocrity so
the confusion will continue. Assume that the word hospitalization touted by
New York or other states, and by the media, is the same as a new case.
Now that the nomenclature is straight, and you understand
that flattening the curve is only in reference to the active case bell curve,
TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and
identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this
occurs, the next four days are watched to see if the new cases have peaked-out
and are beginning a sideways leveling-off pattern, or, if the new cases will
print a new high again. If the new cases remain lower than the peak new case
date for four days after the peak, this date is the Confirmation Date and
always represents five days of sideways behavior including the peak date. This
is an excellent development and means that the active case bell curve will peak
in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.
Once the Confirmation Date is identified, 25 days are added
to this date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date (top of bell
curve). There is a choice of two time periods to apply depending If the country
or region is well prepared with a pandemic plan, and if testing procedures and
supplies are available, and if stay-at-home and lock-down measures for the
population are implemented and enforced quickly, or, if the country is
ill-prepared. South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Taiwan, Hong Kong
and China are the success stories thus far. These nations and regions have the
best pandemic plans and testing protocols and reached their Active Case Peak
Dates, on average, only 9 days after the Confirmation Date (only 14 days after
the New Case Peak Date). Israel is another success story but the data needs to
play out a little more there.
These countries with extensive testing programs were able to
identify and quarantine infected individuals quickly leading to a faster
resolution of the pandemic in that region. It is crystal clear from the data.
Conversely, countries less prepared, and those that took the
initial COVID-19 threat less seriously, such as many European nations, the US,
and UK, are getting hammered as they play catch-up. Since the success stories
above are over their peak active caseloads and were the only ones prepared for
a pandemic, all other nations can be assumed to take far longer than the 9 days
between the Confirmation Date and Active Case Peak Date.
In fact, it takes 25 days or almost three times longer, as
per the Keystone Model, for the active case bell curve to peak for the
unprepared countries. This is disturbing since President Trump’s criteria for
reopening the economy is 14 days past the new case peak date. Trump and his
team patterned this 14-day number after the countries that were successful
above. Trump’s plan does not use the active case bell curve chart which is
stupid since the active case bell curve indicates the maximum strain on the medical system.
Instead, Trump uses the new case bar chart and looks for 14 consecutive days of
sideways or lower infections.
The US is larger geographically than other countries and was
not as well prepared so America will take longer to peak-out. Trump may be in better forecasting shape if he used 30 days for their criteria on new cases
rather than the 14 days (the Keystone Model forecasts the peak in the active
case bell curve to occur 25 days after the Confirmation Date and 30 days after
the New Case Peak Date). King Donnie is rolling the dice and he may be correct,
or maybe not. Your future, career, family and life are on that dice table. Do you feel lucky?Well, do ya?
In the first bit of positive news in a long time, Italy’s
active case bell curve has peaked. Keep your fingers crossed that it continues
to roll over lower. The chart for Italy above illustrates the data provided
below. Italy is important since it serves as an important data set for those
countries that were not as well prepared for the pandemic. The US and others
will likely follow Italy’s lead.
The Spain, France and Israel active case bell curves have also
peaked, France only a day ago, so a few more days will be needed to confirm
this positive development. The problem with Israel, France and Spain is poor
testing so the active case curve could very well begin climbing again. The
curve already paused and bumped higher again in Spain perhaps due to a more
aggressive testing approach. France peaked-out on the active case curve only 14
days after the Confirmation Date, Spain peaked-out at 20 days and Israel in
only 9 days.
If Israel has peaked-out, then it can be lumped in with the
successful nations that see the peak in their active case bell curve about 9
days after the Confirmation Date. If Spain and France have truly peaked-out,
and this is questionable, then a 20-day period between the Confirmation Date
and the Active Case Peak Date should model well (reflecting an average of
Italy, Spain and France at 25 days, 20 days and 14 days, respectively). A 20 to
25-day period between the Confirmation Date and Active Case Peak Date is
starting to gel as a nice modeling number.
For now, the Keystone Model places more confidence in the
Italy data since the top is holding for several days and their testing has
ramped dramatically higher even overtaking Germany in testing. Spain and France
continue to lag with testing. For the countries that have not yet topped-out on
their curves, once the country or region confirms the sideways or lower pattern
of five days with the new cases, the peak in the active case bell curve,
representing the maximum strain on medical personnel, equipment and facilities,
occurs 25 days later as per the Keystone Model.
It is interesting to ponder how the restarting of an economy
meshes with the peaking and rolling over of the active case chart. As
mentioned, Trump’s 9-day period from the Confirmation Date (or 14 days at or
below the New Case Peak Date) to when he wants to restart the economy seems too
tight. But what is correct? In fairness to Donnie, no one knows. We are in
uncharted waters with the covid killer.
The economy will be restarted in phases since different
professions require a physical closeness that others do not. A surveyor hiking
in the Pennsylvania woodlands has little concern or fear of covid but a
beautician in Chicago, restaurant server in New York, masseuse in Florida or bartender at a blues bar in Joisey (New Jersey) interacts
hands-on with dozens of people each day. Focusing on when regular businesses,
generally, should be able to operate, if people are very careful with hygiene
and stay away from each other to every extent possible, the peak in the active
case curve looks like a good candidate.
Since the coronavirus trouble continues at a fevers pitch
for another week or two after the peak in active cases (the top of the bell
curve is flattish then it begins dropping sharply), even though things are
improving, the peak of the bell curve appears to be a logical time to signal the
reopening of the economy. The medical folks will still be extremely busy for a
week or two after the active case peak occurs, but then a substantial drop
off in case load will follow immediately thereafter. In a week or so, Italy will be dancing in the streets and
very happy because they will see how the virus data is improving very fast.
Hang in there Italy since you have the problem licked now if you stay the
course; it will all be obvious in a few days.
If people start back to work when the peak in the active
case bell curve occurs, and get their bearings with their jobs over a week or
two of time, this will coincide with the bell curve starting to drop off. The
improvement in the virus data will turn frowns into smiles and people will
become more positive and optimistic again which will aid the economic rebound. (Do
not get your hopes up too much, however, since the global and US economy is
toast overall.)
Thus, to match up this presentation with President Trump’s
Phase 1 plan, instead of saying the state or region needs 14 days of flat or
lower new cases to restart its economy, the criteria would be better if that was
30 days (to match the Keystone Model). If France and Spain are truly peaking, a
couple or few days may be able to be shaved off the 30. Thus, Trump may be
jumping the gun (restarting the economy) about 2 weeks too early. It may be
best to bite the bullet and stick it out for the 30 days instead of 14 but only
time will tell; the outcome will likely impact the president’s reelection
possibilities. This timing is important because people returning to work too
early will see the virus data not improving and this will stifle the animal
spirits in the markets and economy and sour attitudes going forward.
Timing is tricky. In trading, like life, and restarting the
economy, timing is everything. It may be best to send people back to work as
the active case bell curve peaks and rolls over since people will become more
optimistic from that point forward seeing the daily improvements in the virus
data.
Keep in mind, as discussed in the prior article, the United
States is large geographically and the virus will roll through regions at
different times; it is as if the US is 2 or 3 regions size compared to the
other data. For a given state, region or city in America, use that specific new
case data and follow the Keystone Model to predict the peak in active case load
for that respective region.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection
Rate Model identifies the New Case Peak Date (peak in new infections), then makes
sure the new cases are truly leveling-off with the Confirmation Date (five days
of flat or lower new cases), and then adds 25 days to forecast the Active Case
Peak Date (top of bell curve) which is the maximum demand on the medical system.
Countries are listed below in the order of when the
coronavirus will peak-out and begin to diminish.
China
2/4/20 New
Case Peak Date (highest number of new infection cases) (a subsequent spike on
2/12/20 is ignored; China’s data is very suspect and of limited use)
2/8/20
Confirmation Date (the sideways move in new cases is confirmed for 5 days)
2/17/20 Active Case Peak Date (top of active case bell curve
occurs representing maximum strain on medical facilities) (14 days after the New
Case Peak Date and 9 days after the Confirmation Date)
South Korea
3/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
3/7/20
Confirmation Day
3/11/20 Active
Case Peak Date although 3/15/20 is also a peak (4 days after the Confirmation
Date)
Switzerland
3/20/20 New
Case Peak Date
3/24/20
Confirmation Date
3/31/20
Active Case Peak Date (7 days after Confirmation Date)
Australia
3/22/20 New
Case Peak Date (heavy day also on 3/29/20)
3/26/20
Confirmation Date
4/4/20
Active Case Peak Date (9 days after Confirmation Date)
Germany
3/27/20 New
Case Peak Date
3/31/20
Confirmation Date
4/6/20 Active
Case Peak Date (6 days after Confirmation Date)
Taiwan
3/20/20 New
Case Peak Date (big spike occurs 4/19/20 but it is not more than the peak)
3/24/20
Confirmation Date
4/6/20
Active Case Peak Date (13 days after Confirmation Date)
Hong Kong
3/29/20 New Case Peak Date
4/2/20
Confirmation Date
4/7/20
Active Case Peak Date (5 days after Confirmation Date)
Israel
4/2/20 New
Case Peak Date (big spikes occur on 4/9/20 and 4/22/20 but are not greater than
the peak)
4/6/20
Confirmation Date
4/15/20
Active Case Peak Date (9 days after Confirmation Date)
Below are
the countries and regions that were not as well prepared for the coronavirus
outbreak;
Italy
3/21/20 New
Case Peak Date
3/25/20
Confirmation Date
4/19/20 Active
Case Peak Date (25 days after Confirmation Date and 30 days after the New Case
Peak Date; use for modeling purposes)
Spain
3/26/20 New
Case Peak Date
3/30/20
Confirmation Date
4/19/20 Active Case Peak Date (20 days after Confirmation Date
but wait a few more days to verify the top of the active case bell curve; the
data is suspect due to Spain’s lack of testing)
France
4/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/7/20
Confirmation Date
4/21/20
Active Case Peak Date (14 days after Confirmation Date but it is only one day
for the peak; wait a few more days to verify the top of the active case bell
curve; the data is suspect due to France’s lack of testing)
Philippines
3/31/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/4/20
Confirmation Date
4/29/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
United
States
4/4/20 New
Case Peak Date (heavy infection days also on 4/7/20, 4/9/20 and 4/10/20)
4/8/20
Confirmation Date
5/3/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
Sweden
4/8/20 New
Case Peak Date (heavy infection day also on 4/9/20)
4/12/20
Confirmation Date
5/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
UK
4/10/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/14/20
Confirmation Date
5/9/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Ecuador
4/10/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/14/20
Confirmation Date
5/9/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Japan
4/11/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection date on 4/15/20)
4/15/20
Confirmation Date
5/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Turkey
4/11/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/15/20
Confirmation Date
5/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Peru
4/13/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/17/20
Confirmation Date
5/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Brazil
4/15/20 New
Case Peak Date (Brazil data is suspect already showing that the peak occurred
in active cases and that is not correct; expectation is for the active case
curve to print new highs once more testing occurs or time passes)
4/19/20
Confirmation Date
5/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Canada
4/17/20 New
Case Peak Date (heavy infection dates also on 4/20/20 and 4/22/20)
4/21/20
Confirmation Date
5/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Indonesia
4/12/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/16/20 Confirmation
Date (the active case peak is forecasted for 5/11/20 but this projection is
nullified when new cases drive higher)
4/17/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/21/20
Confirmation Date
5/16/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
India
4/18/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/22/20
Confirmation Date
5/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Russia
4/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/23/20 Projected
Confirmation Date (today)
5/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Mexico
4/20/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/24/20 Projected
Confirmation Date
5/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
Singapore
3/25/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
3/29/20
Confirmation Day (the active case peak is forecasted for 4/23/20 but this
projection is nullified when new cases drive higher)
4/1/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/5/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/9/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/13/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/15/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/16/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/18/20 New
Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/20/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/24/20
Projected Confirmation Day (5 days of new cases levelling off)
5/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord
Have Mercy on Their Souls
The United States should peak-out on the active case bell
curve chart on 5/3/20 which is 10 days hence and that is if the social
distancing, masks, hygiene and other measures remain in effect. Anyone
returning to work must be careful. Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Alaska are reopening
their economies tomorrow. Good luck to them.
The UK and Ecuador should hit the peak in their active case
bell curve on 5/9/20 which is over 2 weeks away. The covid battle will remain
intense in the UK and Ecuador until then. Japan and Turkey will peak next on
5/10/20 followed by Peru on 5/12/20. Brazil is next peaking out with their
active caseload on 5/14/20 and then Canada 5/16/20. Indonesia will also peak on
5/16/20 and India on 5/17/20 which is over 3 weeks in the future. Truly the Lord
Must Have Mercy on Their Souls. Russia is in deep trouble and will not peak
until 5/18/20. Mexico and Singapore bring the gloom with a projected peak date
of 5/19/20 a month away.
Sweden is taking a unique approach to fighting COVID-19 by not implementing the draconian lockdowns and stay-at-home policies that other countries, including the United States, are following. The idea is that a herd immunity will develop if you simply let the virus run its course. Interestingly, many people are choosing to stay at home anyway so the concept of allowing herd immunity to occur will likely not be adequately measured. The information above shows Sweden is in the pack with other countries and slated to top out on the active case bell curve on 5/7/20.
A glass-full optimistic chap will say the brightside is that
in a month most nations on earth will have peaked with their active case charts
(although Africa may still face issues). The glass-empty guy says North America
is looking sad. Even though the US should peak out in about 10 days, Canada and
Mexico remain in the soup. Since they are next door neighbors, and America is
the salami between their slices of bread, the virus may linger in the US for a
while.
The countries and regions that did the most extensive
testing and that implemented draconian lock-down methods gained control of the
coronavirus situation the fastest. China conducted extensive testing and implemented
a commie lockdown; it is easy under communist rule. South Korea’s strong testing
program is creating a positive result. Ditto Germany, Switzerland and Australia.
Chancellor Merkel was finishing her tenure on a downbeat but with the positive
handling of the coronavirus so far, she will be heralded in the history books.
There is lots of concern over the economy in the United States and other countries. People and
businesses are going bankrupt. Americans are unhappy that the money slated to
help small business went to companies with connections and also to large
companies. Most Americans continue waiting for the $1200 government stimulus check. The crony
companies got their money before individuals. Such is the crony capitalism
system. So there is lots of unhappiness around the bailout measures. Some
employees are unhappy that the business receives a bailout loan because they
would make more money if unemployed (adding up the government goodies). The
world is topsy-turvy but this must be how crony capitalism ends.
By the time the Trump restarting plan becomes relevant, perhaps a month
and more from now, the plan may need rewritten since many new things will be
known by then. Trump has a problem with working on priorities. The failure to
implement the Defense Production Act to force manufacturers to run their
factories 24/7 for the production of masks, gowns, face shields, PPE (personal protective equipment), testing
kits and supplies is complete incompetence. Fortunately, the president is
coming up to speed. It is shameful that there remains shortages of PPE and
testing supplies four months into the coronavirus tragedy. There is no excuse.
Last Saturday, President Trump berated the governors for not
using all the great testing capacity he has provided while on Sunday he
backtracks and implements the Defense Act for the production of swabs (that are
required for the testing units). Better late than never.
King Donnie is obviously concerned about the testing taint that
is developing over the last week and is doing everything possible to distance
himself. Each day for a month at the campaign rally/virus briefing, Trump
bragged about the coronavirus testing in the United States and we are the best,
he is the best, you know, all that same-o rot. Donnie was the best at virus
testing in the world; it must be true because he told us so. Trump now avoids the testing subject like the plague, er,
like coronavirus, and proclaims that the testing responsibility lies directly
with the states. Of course he does since the situation is now a mess. The ironic and sad
part of it is that testing paves the way to restarting the economy which is
what the president wants. Trump is a poor manager; that is why his casinos went
bankrupt years ago.
Trump’s daddy gave Donnie $460 million dollars that 40 years
later results in a net worth about $1 to $3 billion (of course Trump will not
disclose his financial records since it is likely embarrassing). That is not an
investment record to be proud of or one that receives the financial genius
award. He is lucky he did not lose the money.
The half-truth’s and lies continue by both of the corrupt
political parties. Trump sends Vice President Pence to the microphone to
declare that all states have the virus testing capacity needed to implement the first
phase of the reopening of the economy plan. Here is how the baby political game
is played. Pence is correct saying the testing ‘capacity’ is available. Most
states, and hospitals and medical facilities in these states have the testing
units, such as Abbott’s testing unit, in place. Great. But there is one
problemmo. The testing units sit there idle since there are shortages and
unavailability of test tubes, reagents, testing fluids and swabs to gather the
samples from the patients and run the tests. It is like having a brand new
Cadillac in the driveway so everyone can see you’re a big shot but in reality,
there is no engine in the car.
This is why Pence is using the word capacity and talking
very carefully. Thus, the capacity for testing is available but the actual
testing for the coronavirus cannot be performed at the level it needs to for
returning Americans to work. The democrats would be playing the same political
baby games as the republicans if they held the presidency. The two parties are
two sides of the same corrupt crony capitalism coin. It is a good thing that
crony capitalism is dying its last breath over the coming years and the US will
make the transition into a system that is fair for common people and not rigged
for the elite class.
It is odd how the Trump administration keeps downplaying the
coronavirus situation holding up unaffected or lightly infected regions on the
US map as examples of where the virus is under control. The regions or states
cited are simply areas that are not yet infected. The virus is spreading. Back
in March, President Trump proudly announced the number of virus cases would
drop to zero in a week’s time. Wrong. In recent days, the task force is touting
the Midwest states, the Heartland, as a shining example of where the virus is
under control. The virus is spreading inward to the center of the country so
those regions simply have not yet experienced COVID-19. It is strange to
cheerlead these areas when in a couple weeks their infections will likely be
ramping strongly higher. Trump is trying to place a positive spin on the
tragedy any way possible since he realizes the handling of the virus situation
will likely dictate whether he is reelected, or not. This is why Donnie is
distancing himself from the testing controversy currently.
Protests and social unrest is increasing in Michigan,
Minnesota, Virginia and California. People want to get back to work to support
their families. The emergency funding program provided by the government is off
to a shaky start. Most individuals and families have not started receiving the government
payments until the last few days. The small business program ran out of money
in only one week’s time but Congress is passing a new spending bill today with more
aid for businesses. In truth, moving forward, the government simply does not have the money to
bail everyone out. All nations are in the same boat and sadly this is when countries choose to go to war.
The crony capitalism system always takes care of
their own. Most of the small business loans went to the favorites of the banks
and these companies are typically in less need than the true small business
owner. Harvard took money but then gave it back. Major restaurant chains ShakShak, Ruth's Steakhouse and Potbelly took money but were shamed into giving it back. The chains qualified as small businesses by counting the franchise stores individually. Obviously these huge companies employ tens of thousands of employees. Isn't human ingenuity, when focused like a laser on greed, something to behold? Small business is defined as under 500 employees. Many people envision
the local barber shop, hairdresser, dry cleaners and pizza shop as small
businesses, and they are, but few realize that companies with 500 employees are
also small business. Many very small businesses, the Mom and Pop's, do not have steady banking
relationships and are getting left out in the cold while the larger small
business managers sit around smoking cigars with their fat banker buddies deciding how
much easy money they plan to stuff into their pockets.
The testing situation is key in determining if reopening the
economy is successful, or not. There are long discussions occurring these days
concerning the sense of proportion between sending people back to work that
need money to support their families, but may become ill from the virus, or,
maintaining the stay-at-home rules and delaying the opening of the economy to
make sure the virus is nipped in the bud. There are think-tanks, media and
officials pondering how many deaths would occur due to the virus if people
return to work versus how many US citizens would die if the lockdown remains in
effect (people are going stir crazy with potentially more violent spouse and
child abuse occurring or simply flipping out from going bankrupt because they
can no longer support themselves). These are not easy questions. There are serious
moral and ethical issues.
If penniless but in good health, you can always rise
to win another day financially, however, if in poor health and sick with covid,
you can absolutely no longer work and all the money in the world may not save
you.
A first coronavirus death is now identified in California earlier in February than the other case. It is now suspected that the coronavirus was in California far earlier than
thought perhaps in September or October. Many deaths this year are chalked up
to the regular flu but the California data hints that far more may have died of
COVID-19. It makes the whole situation that much harder to understand. There
was likely a lot of unknown community transmission occurring in America from
the Fall to the present. A testing and tracing program will shed more light on
the virus situation but tracking opens up the privacy and Big Brother issue.
Centralized government should make everyone nervous.
Americans do not realize that by agreeing to allow drones to track human
movements and such, under the guise of health or safety concerns, is giving up
your liberty and freedom forever. This is what red China does now.
Looking at the Johns-Hopkins virus map, many travelers from
China first stop in California. The oddity is that California’s data is holding
up half-decently and the reason may be that the virus was already in that state
for a few months. You can also see on the map the heavily infected areas such as New
Jersey and New York that welcomed infected travelers from Europe. Chicago is
also another major hub. Florida is also a key entry state into America and it
is heavily infected. Also Colorado, which is interesting since many travelers
probably sought out that destination to sample a little bit of that RockyMountain High, as John Denver would sing (marijuana is legal in Colorado).
States in the central north such as Idaho and Wyoming are
sparsely populated and ready to get back to work but unfortunately the virus
may be slowly spreading in that direction.
China doubles the death count in Wuhan where the coronavirus started likely from a bioweapon’s project gone wrong. The filthy lying communist leadership story keeps changing all the time. China can be dealt with at a future time once the world overcomes coronavirus.
In North Korea, the so-called Hermit Kingdom, there are rumors that Kim Jung-un is gravely
ill after heart surgery. That’s not rocket science. He is a 37-year old
murdering twerp that is 5’7” tall (1.7 m), 300 pounds (136 kg), a heavy drinker and a chain smoker. As if this is not enough, he also has a bad haircut.
President Trump announces a ban (temporary) on immigration the other
day. It is a treat to watch the reality television show master manipulate the
crowd. Trump loves to announce something that causes controversy and then he
always pares down the issue as he did with this immigration drama as well. You
can see it coming a mile away. That’s Our Donnie. The republicans cheer Donnie
because he is appointing the conservative judges that will remain in place for
years, and decades, to come. In back rooms and behind the scenes, his own party
faithful will laugh at the bloviating clown, but in public praise him since it
is a means to an end; getting the conservative judges in place.
Democrats
accuse Trump of diverting attention away from the lack of virus testing by
hyping the immigration ban. The republicans accuse the democrats of grandstanding
accusing the president of diverting. Isn’t it all so nauseating? That’s crony
capitalism on full display.
The price of a barrel of oil crashed and went negative this
week for the first time in history. Global demand for oil has fallen off a
cliff so anyone expecting a sharp economic recovery is mistaken. Many of you
that lost your jobs need to realize you will never work there again.
Americans wonder if another Great Depression is at hand
ushered in by President Donnie “Herbert Hoover” Trump and the coronavirus. The
images of cars lined up for two miles at food bank lines (please understand that
the situation is overwhelming for the volunteers) is reminiscent of the people
standing in bread lines during the Great Depression. “Hey buddy, can you spare
a dime,” was often said by folks standing on street corners with tin cups in
hand. The Bugs Bunny cartoons still depicted depression-era scenes into the
1970’s. Everyone scrounged for pennies to get by another day.
Keystone’s dear grand Aunt Heddie, that passed years ago,
was a child of the Great Depression. For her entire life, at all family gatherings or
whenever she ate at a restaurant, she always made butter breads, wrapping them
in napkins and tucking them into her purse; she did that for decades her entire life into her 90's. Do you
think the Great Depression impacted Heddie’s entire life? Damn right it did.
She didn’t need those butter breads. She ate fine throughout her life but it
shows how events can impact your mind forever. She never forgot what it was like to
go to bed hungry. You would never forget either if it ever happened to you. Perhaps
your life will be impacted in many ways you never thought possible? Perhaps it
is changing already? Perhaps some good may come from dealing with China's killer virus?
Recapping, the Keystone Infection Rate Model can be used to
project the peak in active case load (the top of the bell curve) which
represents the maximum strain on the medical system. First identify the peak day of new cases.
Then verify that this sideways pattern continues for at least 5 days. Add 25
days to this date to project when the top in the active case bell curve will
occur. This can be used for any country, region, state or city.
America should peak in early May so the question will be if
people returning to work will increase the spread of the virus, or, if we
continue on this path and peak out in the US on 5/3/20. Time will tell and
Trump’s reelection likely hangs in the balance.
There remains ongoing shortages of PPE especially masks and
the testing program continues playing catch-up. All in all, Trump is likely
doing about as well as anyone else would under the circumstances. He loves the
nightly press briefings since he uses them to bolster his reelection campaign. Sleepy Joe
Biden, as Trump calls his democrat opponent in the November presidential election, is missing
in action. The lockdown hampers Biden’s campaign while it is an advantage for King
Donnie.
Each press briefing starts with Trump berating any negative
article or comment on him over the last day. Donnie’s skin is as thin as tissue
paper. Then he will berate Biden for a while and the democrats in general. He
will demean Pelosi. Then he will denigrate the media, who he invited there for
the briefing. After Trump finishes this standard business each evening, he then provides some information on the coronavirus.
Trump loves to brag about the
ventilator production. He proclaims that he is king of “da vend-da-la-dors” in
a New York accent. Young folks may think about a drinking game taking a swig each
time Donnie says “vend-da-la-dors.” It’s hysterically funny and worthy of a SNL
(Saturday Night Live) skit. Watch his press briefing tonight. He will brag
about ventilators for at least two or three times during the briefing for a
couple minutes each.
Hang in there everyone no matter what your location around
the world. Use the Keystone Model as a guide that helps you prepare for the
path ahead. As Italy, France and Spain roll over from the top of the active
case bell curve that should improve the international mood and provide hope for
the road ahead albeit many of the countries listed above have another 2 to 4
weeks of very tough sledding.
As this article is written, GILD crashes -6.2% and is halted
from trading. Gilead is the maker of Remdesivir which showed great promise in
treating coronavirus but alas, a leaked study indicates that the drug was not
useful. That sucks. The stock market tumbles lower from the day’s highs the
S&P 500 loses about 50 handles before recovering and the Dow Industrials
lose about 340 handles. The intraday market action shows how traders, and
especially the trading algorithms, are trading directly off COVID-19 news.
Note Added 4:05 PM EST: GILD ends the session
down -4.3% on the disappointing Remdesivir study. The major indexes finish flattish on the day. The SPX Index, the S&P 500, which is the United States stock market, is at 2798. The Dow Jones Industrials Index watched by the general public is at 23515. The SPX topped-out at 3393.52, call it 3394, on 2/19/20. The stock market crashed -35.4% dropping to 2191.86, call it 2192, on 3/23/20. The 23-day crash is the fastest stock market crash in American history; there's another record for President Trump although he will likely not boast about this one. The SPX then rallies from 2192 to 2879.22, call it 2879, a +31.3% snap-back relief rally of course driven by the Federal Reserve and other central bank largess. The House passes a $484 billion spending bill. What a joke of a financial system it has become. President Trump will sign it. The politico's are already discussing the next spending package; manna from heaven. There is not enough money to bail everything and everyone out besides, this is the complete opposite of capitalism. There is talk that some of the states in the US deep in debt, such as Illinois, may be allowed, or forced, to file bankruptcy. The states are disappointed that the spending bill did not include funding for state and local governments. Perhaps some of the public employees with lucrative pensions may be receiving hair cuts down the road. Of course services will have to be curtailed (police, fire, garbage, road repair, etc...) as the tax base dwindles and local, state and Federal government coffers go empty. State and local employees will be sh*t-canned and services will suffer going forward. The president hugs the limelight again conducting another virus briefing that denigrates democrats, bashes Biden, berates the media and tells everyone he's the best at everything. Da vendaladors, da vendaladors. Trump says he may extend the social distancing guidelines from the 4/30/20 expiration into the summer perhaps beyond. Of course Showman Donnie says "may" since you have to tune in tomorrow when he will talk about it again but provide no guidance. This drama will keep everyone tuned into the reality television show virus briefing each evening until next week when Donnie will unveil the big decision. Be sure to tune in for this social distancing decision episode; check your local channel listings for times. It is sickening to watch after a while just as President Obama's antics got old. Clean up needed in aisle three. Trump talks about injecting disinfectants into people to treat the virus which causes the doctors to wince. Lysol, a top manufacturer of disinfectant products, immediately releases a statement telling people to not ingest, inject or inhale any disinfectant or cleaner in any way. Of course Lysol does not want sued if some dumbo picks up a bottle of cleaner and takes a swig as per the presidents comments. Donnie appears a little off the rails with this disinfectant stuff, it is a bit wild even for him, maybe the doc's need to adjust his meds. As businesses slowly reopen, perhaps a smart decision perhaps not, there will be requirements to wear masks but one thing is for certain; humans look like *ssholes walking around in masks.
Note Added 8:19 PM EST: Philippine dirtbag dictator Duterte says the country is running out of funds. The lockdown is extended to 5/15/20. Those scenic islands, such as the white sand beaches at Boracay, are turning into H*ll on earth. S&P futures are down -17 points. Dow futures -101.
Note Added 9:04 PM EST: S&P futures -21.
Note Added 4:34 AM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: S&P futures -7. US 10-year yield 0.59%. Gold 1729. WTIC oil is at 16 bucks recovering from the historic negative rout this week. If any of you are trying to make sense of the economic mess, and wondering what to do going forward, get yourself out of debt. The debt service is palatable now, probably for a year or two as disinflation and deflation play out, but variable rate loans will likely increase sharply in the following years. Therefore, focus your attention on reducing debt since it will smoke you in the coming years when rates start ramping higher. Deflation is a far bigger fear than inflation right now and overall from a historic market and economic standpoint. It is a quagmire that is difficult to escape. Japan is in a three-decade deflationary slump. The term 'deflationary spiral' is tossed about here and there these days. Deflation is evidenced by lower prices so the immediate reaction is great, everything will be cheap to buy. That is correct but there is a big problem; human behavior. When people see falling prices, like now, and they had plans to purchase something, instead of rushing out to buy it taking advantage of the cost savings, they will tend to wait another week because the price may be even cheaper; hence, the deflationary spiral. As prices continue dropping, companies do not keep you around for your good looks, they will can you. As more folks lose jobs, the deflationary spiral continues with prices dropping further. This is the Great Depression scenario. In a couple years, however, we will likely extract ourselves from this mess and jump into a new mess; inflation. Rates will begin to rise and your monthly loan obligations will increase. This is why it is important to take advantage of the coming months and get yourself out of debt to every extent possible. Once rates start climbing higher, it will be too late for some of you. The inflation period will then move into hyperinflation as the velocity of money sitting at banks is put to immediate use. The Dow will be running higher to 30K, 40K, 50K in a few years but it will not be joyful since the dollar will be toilet paper and the cost of a gallon of gas, or a loaf of bread, will be $10 and climbing. Look at all the fun you get to look forward to over the coming months and years. We need Fanfare for the Common Man to pump everyone up from their downtrodden posture. As Monty Python says, we must always look on the bright side of life.
Note Added 6:33 AM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: S&P futures are up +14. VIX 40.15. Futures float higher as traders are willing to forget all the bad news since the central banks are printing money like madmen and governments are tossing money and coins to the crowd below; analogous to Caligula climbing the marble column centuries ago and, for amusement, tossing bags of money to the crowd below, simply to watch them tear each other apart. Oh how history rhymes.
Note Added 12:37 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: The S&P is up 7 points, +0.3%, to 2805. VIX 37.97. President Trump signs the $484 billion spending bill. Tragically, the coronavirus deaths in the United States cross 50,000. Over 16K bodies are stacked up in New York alone. That communist Beijing leadership, led by dirtbag Dictator Xi, must pay a dear price for their murderous COVID-19 deed. The Chinese Wuhan virus has killed over 17 times the number of Americans than the Saudi-based terrorists did on 9-11. In the future, the US will have to wipe that Winnie the Pooh smile off Dictator Xi's face (Xi has outlawed all cartoons, books, etc.., that involve Winnie the Pooh because it was being used as a caricature of himself; these dirtbag dictators are all the same with paper-thin skin). Xi donates millions to WHO yesterday after President Trump pulled away from funding for WHO until an analysis of the organization, and what went wrong with the reporting of COVID-19, is performed. Xi and WHO are commingling in their sick coronavirus bed.
Note Added 5:40 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: The SPX finishes the session up 39 points, +0.4%, to 2837. Copper ran higher providing market strength. The SPX bounces up off the 50-day MA at 2808. The 200-day MA is at 3008. Here comes Donnie for the evening campaign briefing. Surprisingly, he starts by talking about the coronavirus. Okay, anyone want to make a wager as to when the president will brag about the ventilators? Da vendaladors. Da vendaladors.
Note Added 5:44 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: The answer is 4 minutes. Da vendaladors. Da vendaladors. Donnie is becoming too predictable. It's hilarious albeit tragic. The coronavirus deaths in the United States are now near 52,000 only a few hours after they crossed 50K.
Note Added 8:25 AM EST on Saturday, 4/25/20: President Trump did not take questions during the briefing last evening. This is odd since he calls the media there to the Whitehouse press room where questions are asked; that is the function of the room. There is an ongoing backlash occurring, of course fueled by the left-wing media such as cable news outlets CNN and MSNBC, and broadcast networks, about Trump's comments on injecting disinfectant to treat coronavirus. Donnie only made it worse claiming that he was being sarcastic but anyone can watch the video over and over and there was no sarcasm there. Donnie creates another pickle for himself since he is incapable of ever saying he is wrong. The Whitehouse is rethinking the evening briefings because the president's approval rating keeps slipping lower and lower the more his orange head appears on television. The nightly pressers have morphed into ad hominem attacks on democrats, the media, Biden, fake news (which is any article that paints Donnie in a bad light), etc...., and became cringe-worthy a couple nights ago with the ingesting and injecting of cleaning products talk. Trump delivered a softball to the liberal media that dislikes him; he only has himself to blame touting a bunch of nonsense when people want clear answers, directions and legitimate hope and optimism. President Trump's approval rating is slipping so it makes sense that his handlers may finally change up the daily press briefings. Four weeks ago, Trump was riding high with over 46% of the country approving of the job he is doing, so he was at the top of his usual range and perhaps ready to break-out higher, while 49% did not. The president's approval rating oscillates between 42% and 48% since he has been elected, a couple of polls will occasionally hand him a 50% handle, however, as the coronavirus tragedy continues, with no end in sight, the numbers are deteriorating. Right now, 43% approve of the job he is doing, a drop of three percentage-points, and over 53% disapprove of his job performance, an increase of four percentage-points. Obviously, his reelecton committee stepped in and told him to take it easy and let's sort things out this weekend. The poll is a negative seven percentage-point swing in only four weeks. People see the briefings every night where all is fine and Trump says he is the best at everything, we're the best, you're the best, I'm the best, but then when you watch the other news casts you see all the suffering and medical personnel still without masks and equipment and testing units sitting idle for lack of supplies. People may also be freaking out with the president giving medical advice each evening and now he is spouting a bunch of snake-oil type remedies. It is hilarious from a carnival-barker's perspective but no one is in a laughing mood with this Chinese COVID-19 killer still on the loose. Trump needs to focus on the priorities and providing clear facts, direction and hope to people if he wants to lift his approval numbers. This is something you cannot teach; you are either a born a leader, or you are not, and the major events decide your fate in the game of life. Donnie should focus on less song and dance on the press room stage and more getting the job done in the trenches feeling the people's pain (as Slick Willie Clinton would opine).
Note Added 4:44 AM EST on Sunday Morning, 4/26/20: The coronvirus news turns grim. Nine countries listed above now drop below Singapore in the timeline of when COVID-19 will peak in their respective nations. It is terrible and tragic news. The new cases have spiked dramatically in the United States and elsewhere on Friday, Saturday and today. This is likely due to increased testing which finally begins to identify everyone sick with coronavirus. As per the Keystone Model above, first the new cases have to peak which is called the New Case Peak Date. Then, after four more days a leveling off in the new cases is verified by the Confirmation Date. The peak in active cases, the top of the bell curve, which represents the maximum strain on medical facilities, then occurs 25 days after the Confirmation Date, or 30 days after the New Case Peak Date. Thus, with many countries now showing large spikes in new cases taking out their prior new case peaks, this coronavirus tragedy is going to linger a long time. The nations now reporting spikes in new cases will likely not peak out on the active case bell curve for a month which is late May even into early June because the new cases may increase further in the coming days. Canada reports a new peak in new cases on 4/23/20. The United States, Sweden, Ecuador and Indonesia report new case peak days on 4/24/20. Russia, Peru, Brazil and Mexico report the highest number of new cases thus far today, 4/25/0. This is terrible news and means that restarting the economy is likely premature. President Trump's guideline about new cases leveling off and falling for 14 days is blown out of the water. Since the new cases peak this weekend, 13 more days have to pass before businesses would be allowed to be open under phase one of the president's own plan. What a mess. The dude provided a plan prematurely; instead he needs to focus on supplying testing supplies and PPE which remain in short supply three months or more into this mess. President Trump is pondering firing US Heath Secretary Alex Azar using him as the scapegoat for the slow reaction to the COVID-19 tragedy. This is interesting from the standpoint that the Trump administration appears to finally concede that they have been slow to respond to the coronavirus tragedy. King Donnie must have known the spike in new cases was occurring this weekend which is why the press briefings went numb over the last two days. There was no briefing yesterday and the president would not take questions, in the press room, on Friday. Trump will have a hard time yelling "fake news" when the data shows the spike in new cases this weekend. It's a mess. Trump is correct to question WHO's motives. China and WHO are commingling in the coronavirus bed together along with many billionaires around the world. Be wary of all the talk of "tracing and tracking." Big Brother wants to take control and the virus is a great opportunity to convince the little idiots to allow tracking on their smartphones. Many folks have very little daily contact with people so if they contract covid, they can simply write down on a sheet of paper who they saw over the last two weeks with contact information; that is all the government needs, or deserves. Every few hours in the media, the WHO says there may be no immunity from the virus. Of course they do. They want to make you afraid and scared of your own shadow because they are part of the agenda to move towards tracking all humans on earth; the mark of the beast. The fascinating aspect of the virus mess is that the eventual outcome to resolving the situation may be herd immunity and not treatments or vaccines. In other words, many of you are going to get the virus. Sweden is taking the herd immunity approach but it will not be a good case study since folks are staying at home anyways and society is not functioning properly like everywhere else on earth. Note that the US and Sweden are now projected to top out on the active case curve at the same time on 5/24/20; likely late May early June. The US is using the stay-at-home measures and it is interesting to see the two countries in the same pickle despite fighting the virus with two different methods. Both the US and Sweden may have about 20% of their populations already exposed to the virus; many people are asymptomatic never realizing they had the virus. Herd immunity needs about 80% and more to snuff out the threat. 54,000 people have died in the US from China's Wuhan coronavirus. May the Lord Have Mercy on All Our Souls. Don't forget to smile, Steve will show you how.
