XHB Homebuilders Weekly Chart; Fibonacci Retracements; Homebuilders Weakest Since September 2017

Homebuilders crumble -3.7% last week. The blue lines show the Fibonacci retracements for the rally from late 2016 to the January 2018 top. Price now sits on the 50% Fib at 38.44 so it will bounce or die. A bounce will be aided by the positive divergence (thin green lines). If price fails it will target the 62% Fib at 36.66.

XHB is at the lowest price since September 2017 (orange line and circle). The housing and auto sectors are the two main drivers of the economy. The brown descending triangle is in play. If price drops below 38.44, it will want to seek 33.50 to satisfy the triangle where there was lots of congestion back in late 2016 early 2017. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SOX Semiconductors Daily Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

The sideways symmetrical triangle pattern remains in play for the semiconductors. SOX lost -1.2% last week. On the daily chart above, price bounces off the lower rail of the blue triangle. The triangle pattern is strong with 8 touches since June. Price has to make an up or down decision since it is in the apex of the triangle and out of space over the next two weeks.

SOX begins the week at 1367. The 50-day MA is 1370. The 20-week MA is 1370. Keybot the Quant is currently short the market and tracking SOX 1370 as an important bull-bear line in the sand. It appears that 1370 is key and with price only 3 points away, the chips will dictate stock market direction on Monday morning. As the chips go, so goes the markets. The battleground is SOX 1370.

The bulls are jamming NVIDIA higher proclaiming it as the top chip-maker for the growing AI (artificial intelligence) space. The professional traders and money-managers already know this and the stock appreciation reflects this expectation. NVDA pops +6.66% last week on the hype. The smart money is getting Joe Sixpack all excited about NVDA and AI so they can distribute shares to this future bagholder.

For the triangle, the vertical side is 160 points (1280 to 1440). Thus, if price collapses out the bottom of the sideways symmetrical triangle at 1350, price will seek 1190. If the SOX breaks out higher out of the triangle at 1380, price will seek 1540. The stakes are high. The chips must make a major decision over the coming days and obviously the broad stock market will follow the chips. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 10/2/18, 7:42 AM EST: SOX leaps higher yesterday sending the stock market higher, however, as the session played out, the chips rolled over to the downside and ends the day at....... wait for it....... wait a little bit longer for it ........... 1370. The battle continues. Note how price came up to 1382 for the HOD testing the upper trend line of the triangle pattern but was spanked back down. There are now 9 touches of the outer rails that form the sideways symmetrical triangle bestowing more importance on the pattern.

Note Added Sunday, 10/7/18: The chips have fallen apart. SOX is at 1316.

XLF Financials Weekly Chart; Sideways Channel; Price Pivoting at 20 and 50-Week MA's

Financials take the pipe over the last six days. This is especially interesting considering that the yield curve steepens slightly. XLF loses -4.0% last week and the KRE (regional banks) is beaten -4.6%. That's going to leave a mark.

The red lines show the overbot conditions, rising wedge and negative divergence that created the top and smack down to begin the year. The banks are stumbling sideways through the blue channel at 26.5-29.0. Banks rally from the bottom rail to the top rail of the channel and then are punched in the face last week. XLF collapses.

The chart is not tipping its hand from a technical standpoint, however, something very special is happening. Price, the 20-week MA and 50-week MA are all at the same number at 27.58-27.64; call it 27.60.

XLF is going to pivot up or down from 27.58-27.64 during the days ahead and its direction will greatly impact the broad stock market. Stock market bulls win big if the XLF moves higher above 27.64. This will open the door to another test of the top rail at 29.00 and that will lead to bigtime stock market record highs.

Stock market bears need XLF to remain under 27.60 and continue lower which will lead to market mayhem. The bears will then target the lower channel line at 26.5 and if that fails, look out Nellie. It will not be good for the stock market if the banks are falling apart.

Keybot the Quant is currently short and the algo is tracking XLF 28.05 as a key bull-bear line in the sand. This creates negativity in the broad stock market. If the bulls push the XLF above 28.05, they have got some serious strength. Bears will generally remain in the ball game as long as price does not move above 28.05. Interestingly, the KRE failed through its 20 and 50-week MA's last week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SHLD Sears Weekly Chart; Sears Crashes -98% in the Last 3 Years Printing Below $1

Sears is taking the pipe. The sun is setting on Sears as CEO Eddie Lampert admits that the retailer is quickly running out of cash with bond payments due. Perhaps no one wants to buy the out-of-fashion, overpriced clothes that are of poor quality. Or shop in stores walking on dirty tile floors.

SHLD tanks -16.3% on Friday, 9/28/18 and is down -24% on the week. SHLD was at 45 in June 2015. That is when Aunt Martha invested her entire life savings into Sears stock. This evening, she is eating cat food for dinner while huddled next to the stove for warmth.

SHLD crashes -98% over the last 3 years (since June 2015). In May of this year, only 4 months ago, Sears was at 4 and has crashed -76% in the last 16 weeks. Sears best asset is the real estate locations it owns. SHLD plummets to a LOD at 82 cents under $1 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq may have to delist SHLD next year if the share price cannot stay above $1. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NIKK Nikkei (Japan) Index Weekly Chart; 27-Year Record High

The NIKK gains +1.4% today, Friday, 9/28/18, to 24120. The HOD is 24286 a level not seen since November 1991 which is a long 27 years ago. The Rising Sun. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant algorithm flips to the bear side at SPX 2908 on Wednesday afternoon. Banks are weak. Bulls need XLF above 28.06 (now at 27.99) and UTIL above 710.80 (now at 709). Bears need weaker banks and utilities and higher volatility. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Battle at 50-Week MA

Always remember, the old-timer's watch two key numbers for the utilities; the 15-week lookback number and the 50-week MA. The price from 15 weeks ago determines if the current week is in an uptrend, or not. If UTIL is in an uptrend, then the broad stock market will likely head higher as well. If utes are in a weekly downtrend, the broad stock market should weaken as well. The 50-week MA is a trap-door in the stock market where bad things will happen once it is opened.

The 50-week MA is at 710.80 and failed today but the bulls managed to push UTIL back above and close the trap-door. Price is at 711.83 so watch this closely on hump day. If 711 fails, stand ready for a potential sharp flush lower in the stock market, quick and bloody. In addition, if UTIL fails below 711 and remains below, the stock market will likely underperform for many weeks and months ahead. The stock market bulls will throw confetti if UTIL runs higher up and away from the 50-week.

The brown circle show the close from 15 weeks ago at 678-ish. If 711 fails, that is trouble, if 678 fails this week, that will be carnage. The blue circle shows the 15-week lookback comparison number at 697-ish for next week 10/1 thru 10/5 and the purple circle for the week of 10/8 thru 10/12 at 712. The stock market will be in huge trouble if UTIL 678 fails this week, or 697 next week, or 712 the week after.

If UTIL begins rallying higher ending all the above drama for now, that likely says THE stock market top will be delayed into the October-December time frame rather than right now September-October. If UTIL starts sliding south, it spells big trouble for the stock market directly ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 9/27/18: UTIL failed at the 50-week MA at 710.80 yesterday. UTIL price is currently at 708. This spells trouble ahead for stocks but the battle will continue.

Note Added Friday, 9/28/18: UTIL regains the 50-week MA at 710.80. UTIL price is currently at 717. The bulls are smiling but the battle continues.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation; Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference on Tap 9/26/18

The SPX daily chart is set up to pull back and the action on Friday and yesterday provide a taste of that bearishness. However, the central banks are the market, and the FOMC two-day policy meeting begins today with the rate decision, forecasts and the Chairman Powell news conference on tap tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday, 9/26/18). The stock market is typically bullish heading into and during the Fed meetings 80% of the time. The full moon peaked last night leading to buoyancy in the futures this morning.

The SPX has overbot stochastics and a rising wedge pattern agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show universal negative divergence which wants lower prices. The S&P 500 tagged the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2899 and rising is on the table. Price is overextended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion. All these factors are bearish.

The ADX line is down to 11 so despite new record highs in the mighty S&P 500, the upward trend is NOT a strong trend; it is weak and getting weaker the last few months.

However, the central bankers are powerful. After all, they have succeeded in pumping every asset class on earth to record highs over the last decade with their ongoing Keynesian money printing around the world. The planet is awash in liquidity and all that money has to go somewhere so it continually sends prices higher. Window dressing for end of Q3 may also create lift in stocks.

The Fed is expected to hike by 25 basis points tomorrow; it is a done deal. Traders will be more concerned about the potential hike for December and will parse every Powell word carefully for clues.

The SPX dropped to 2913 on Monday using the strong 2912 level as support (see the previous post showing SPX Support/Resistance levels). This 2912-2913 level now takes on added importance going forward.

The banks have been happy with the yield curve steepening slightly but a hike in rates will likely push the short end yields up a little more flattening the yield curve perhaps creating sad banks. The market reaction after a Fed decision is always a mystery. The chart says down but dovish central banker talk can quickly turn frowns into smiles for the privileged class. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 9/24/18

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 9/24/18. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

The all-time record high print for the S&P 500 is 2940.91 on 9/24/18 and the all-time closing high is 2930.75 on 9/20/18. Sound the Seven Trumpets! All Hail the Power and Glory of global central bankers; the modern-day Money God’s. The BOJ and ECB continue printing money like madmen. The Fed is in no hurry to raise rates because inflation is Godot (although a 25-bip rate hike is a 100% done deal for this coming Wednesday afternoon, 9/26/18). The easy money spigot flows perpetually buying up all asset classes including stocks, bonds, real estate, art, collectibles, cars, vineyards, etc…

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke implemented QE1 in March 2009 to save the US stock market and protect the wealthy elite class that own large stock portfolios. Over nine years later, the global central bankers continue colluding and coordinating their Keynesian policies sending stock markets to all-time record highs in September 2018. The central bankers are the market.

The Whitehouse crew such as Mnuchin, Kudlow, Navarro, Ross and others are Wall Street men watching the ticker tape all day long. They are anxious to step in during any stock market downturn announcing more cuts to regulations, especially rules governing the corrupt investment banks, more tax cuts which benefit the wealthy, and announce progress with trade agreements with China, Europe or Canada. All these items pop the stock market higher since companies have more money to spend on stock buybacks which pump equity prices higher. Every day is blue skies and roses. Dogs and cats are playing together. What could possibly go wrong?

The SPX all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2018, the intraday high is Friday’s 2940.91 and closing high is Thursday’s 2930.75. For 2018, the intraday low is 2532.69 on 2/9/18 and the closing low for this year thus far is at 2581.00 on 2/8/18.

The Dow Jones Industrials finally overtake their January record highs. The Dow Industrials had lagged the other major indexes but now plays catch up and confirms the record highs in the trannies (Dow Transports) which provides a bullish signal for the stock market from a Dow Theory perspective. The wine is flowing like water.

Only five trading days remain in September so Friday is EOM and EOQ3. The monthly charts receive new numbers cast in concrete on Friday at 4 PM EST and October trading begins on Monday, 10/1/18. Window dressing is occurring at quarter-end as money managers want to brag they owned the best-performing stocks.

The full moon peaks Monday evening at 10:52 PM EST and stocks are usually bullish moving through the full moon peak each month. Also, on the bull’s side, is the two-day Fed meeting with the rate decision and press conference on tap Wednesday afternoon. Stocks are typically bullish 80% of the time leading into and during the Fed meeting. Consumer Confidence is important on Tuesday morning.

The S&P 500 begins the week at 2930. The strongest support/resistance for the SPX (S&P 500) is 2941, 2931, 2927, 2917, 2914 and 2912. If 2912 fails, price is headed down to test the 2897-2904 support where the month began. The next five days may be historic since the month and quarter-end numbers are key against the backdrop of what will happen when the Federal Reserve announces the rate hike on Wednesday afternoon.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in the Google Chrome browser. If you experience any difficulties viewing the blog sites or in disabling Adblock, you have to view the sites in Google Chrome. The data is current up through 9/23/18.

SPX (S&P 500) SUPPORT/RESISTANCE (S/R)

3020

3000

2980

2960

2950

2945

2941 (9/21/18 All-Time Intraday High: 2940.91) (9/21/18 Intraday High for 2018: 2940.91)

2940.91 Previous Week’s High

2940.91 Friday HOD

2937

2935

2931 (9/20/18 All-Time Closing High: 2930.75) (9/20/18 Closing High for 2018: 2930.75)

2930

2929.67 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2927.11 Friday LOD

2927

2920

2917 (8/29/18 Intraday High: 2916.50)

2914 (8/29/18 Closing High: 2914.04)

2912

2911

2909

2908

2904

2902

2901.52 September Begins Here

2901

2900

2898

2897.26 (20-day MA)

2897

2895

2894

2892

2889

2886.16 Previous Week’s Low

2885

2883.16 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

2877

2876

2873 (1/26/18 Intraday High: 2872.80)

2872

2867

2864 (9/7/18 Intraday Low: 2864.12)

2863

2862

2857.39 (50-day MA)

2857

2856

2854

2853

2851

2850

2848

2846

2843

2842

2840

2839

2838

2836

2835

2833

2831

2830

2827

2824

2822

2818

2816

2813

2810

2809

2808

2806

2805.83 (20-week MA)

2803

2802 (3/13/18 Intraday High: 2801.90)

2800

2799

2798

2797

2795.75 (100-day MA)

2791 (6/13/18 Intraday High: 2791.47)

2789

2786.53 (6-month MA)

2786

2783

2780

2779

2775

2770

2764

2763

2762

2760

2758.81 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

2757.13 (10-month MA)

2753

2751

2750.37 (200-day MA)

2749

2748

2744

2743

2742 (5/22/18 Intraday High: 2742.24)

2741

2738

2733

2732.84 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal; the cliff)

2732

2731

2728

2727

2726.02 (50-week MA)

2724

2723

2717 (4/18/18 Intraday High: 2717.49)

2716

2714

2713

2711

2710

2705

2701

2699

2695 (12/18/17 Intraday High: 2694.97)

2693

2692 (6/2818 Intraday Low: 2691.99)

2683

2682

2681

2678

2677 (5/29/18 Intraday Low: 2676.81)

2676

2674 (12/29/17 Intraday Low; 2673.61)

2670

2665 (12/4/17 Intraday High: 2665.19)

2663

2661

2660

2659

2657

2653 (12/13/17 Intraday Low: 2652.85)

2652

2645

2639

2637

2635

2628

2613

2610.06 (20-month MA)

2606

2605 (12/1/17 Intraday Spike Low: 2605.52)

2602

2601

2597 (11/7/17 Intraday High: 2597.02)

2595 (5/3/18 Intraday Low: 2594.62)

2593

2588

2586

2585

2584

2582

2581 (2/8/18 Closing Low for 2018: 2581.00)

2580

2579

2578

2575

2573

2569

2567

2566

2560

2557

2555

2554 (4/2/18 Intraday Low: 2553.80)

2553

2552

2551

2549

2548

2545

2544 (10/25/17 Intraday Low: 2544.00)

2543.70 (100-week MA)

2541

2535

2532 (2/9/18 Intraday Low for 2018: 2532.69)

2529

2521

2520

2519

2510

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The SPX monthly chart saga continues. Remember, all eyes are on the purple circle since that tells you when THE top is in for the stock market. The bears were in good shape a couple weeks ago with the MACD line unable to create a higher high, however, the MACD line is now poking out a higher high. This will create further upside juice for price if it can be maintained until the final monthly print is placed in concrete on Friday, 9/28/18, five trading days away, the end-of-month (EOM) and end-of-third quarter (EOQ3).

The red lines show the indicators all in negative divergence and out of gas except for the sliver of strength showing in the MACD. The S&P 500 will need to pull back due to the neggie d but if the MACD line continues sloping higher, price will want to come back up say in October-November. The ADX line remains robust and continues to indicate a strong trend higher. Bears will need to see that ADX curl over to the downside. The upper band has been violated for a couple years and price needs to show respect to at least the middle band at 2610 and rising.

The next five days are critical. If stocks sell off in the week ahead, and that MACD line drops before the month-end prints, then THE top in the stock market will remain as now. Otherwise, if the MACD shows strength, stocks will likely top out in October-November. Simply watch the purple circle; it tells you everything you need to know. If you are a young person, stay away from the stock market on the long side. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GOOGL Alphabet (Google) Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

Since August is in the rearview mirror and Autumn has started, it is a good time to take  look at the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) monthly stock charts. Facebook has rolled over after placing highs in February and July. Apple continues enjoying upside momo. Amazon is the strongest of the FAANG stocks and will be last to place its long-term top. Netflix wobbles at it hangs around near record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the weakest besides Facebook.

FB has likely placed its long-term top. GOOGL will likely print its multi-month and perhaps multi-year top now through November. NFLX will likely top-out next in October-November. AAPL will place its long-term top in October-December likely before the year ends. Amazon will be last of the FAANG's to be defanged likely placing THE top in the October-January time frame.

For the GOOGL monthly chart above, the red lines show the overbot conditions, rising wedge for this year and negative divergence for the indicators (sans MACD) that creates the slight spank down off the top a month ago. The long and strong MACD line wants another matching or higher high in price so GOOGL likely has one small spurt of upside life remaining before it rolls over. The long-term orange rising wedge is ominous.

The MACD line and money flow continue ramping higher providing more juice for price. Thus, after this pullback due to the negative divergence with the other indicators, Google will come back up again for a matching or higher high. At that time, say October, if the MACD line rolls over with neggie d, THE top is in for mighty Alphabet (Google).

The upper band is violated so the middle band at 1036.66, and rising, is on the table. It is about time that Alphabet showed respect to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, since the last time was 2015. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback in price.The ADX still shows a strong trend at 51 that the bears will need to roll over. 

Price needs to back off the highs like the red candlestick now shows for September. Then GOOGL should rally higher again to satisfy the MACD line. If the neggie d appears with the MACD as the new price high prints, THE top will be in. For Alphabet, it looks like October-November is a good guess for THE multi-month and multi-year top for GOOGL. If you have enjoyed huge multi-year returns from Alphabet, keep scaling out as time moves along since THE top is approaching quickly. Take one-fourth of the long position off every two weeks going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NFLX Netflix Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

Since August is in the rearview mirror and Autumn began yesterdy, it is a good time to take  look at the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) monthly stock charts. Facebook has rolled over after placing highs in February and July. Apple continues enjoying upside momo. Amazon is the strongest of the FAANG stocks and will be last to place its long-term multi-year top. Netflix wobbles at it hangs around near record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the weakest besides Facebook.

FB has likely placed its long-term top. GOOGL will likely print its multi-month and perhaps multi-year top now through November. NFLX will likely top-out next in October-November. AAPL will place its long-term top in October-December likely before the year ends. Amazon will be last of the FAANG's to be defanged likely placing THE top in the October-January time frame.

For the NFLX monthly chart above, price has dipped for a couple months off the highs, which may end up being a Tweezer Top. When price printed the Tweezer Top, the indicators were all in negative divergence except for the MACD line that remains long and strong. The neggie d creates this small pull back adn lull period but price likely wants to go back up to the Tweezer Top highs to use up the remaining juice in the MACD line. Once that matching price high occurs, the MACD iwll likely go neggie d so THE top would be in for Netflix probably for many months or years.

The red rising wedge is ominous since collapses from this pattern can be quite dramatic and devastating. The RSI, stochastics and money flow are all overbot and agreeable to a pullback in the monthly time frame. The upper standard deviation line is violated for many months and needs to show the middle band, at 242 and rising, some respect. The ADX is high at 66 indicating that the trend higher remains a strong trend but the ADX is rolling over for the last three months.

NFLX should float higher to satisfy the long and strong MACD in this monthly time frame but when the matching or higher price occurs, the MACD line will likely go neggie d and itdentify THE top for Netflix which is likely in the October-December time frame. If you have enjoyed huge multi-year returns from NFLX, keep scaling out as time moves along since THE top is approaching soon. Take one-fourth of the long position off say every two weeks going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The SPX is setting up with negative divergence (red lines) across all indicators except for a sliver of strength in the last hour or two with the MACD line. The S&P 500 may want to come up for another matching high say at 2940-ish and at that time the MACD line should go neggie d. The top for this 2-hour period is at hand. The bearish wedge and overbot RSI and stochastics are negatives.

Interestingly, the two-day Fed meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday and stocks typically rally 80% of the time into a Fed decision (Wed afternoon). Also, the full moon peaks Monday night and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon each month.

The upper band is violated so the middle band at 2913, and rising, is on the table also the lower band at 2883. So stocks should likely top out this afternoon and sell off into early next week but the Fed joy will be pushing back against the bears perhaps starting Monday afternoon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AMZN Amazon Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

Since August is in the rearview mirror and Autumn begins Saturday, it is a good time to take  look at the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) monthly stock charts. Facebook has rolled over after placing highs in February and July. Apple continues enjoying upside momo. Amazon is the strongest of the FAANG stocks and will be last to place its long-term top. Netflix wobbles at it hangs around near record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the weakest besides Facebook.

FB has likely placed its long-term top. GOOGL will likely print its multi-month and perhaps multi-year top now through November. NFLX will likely top-out next in October-November. AAPL will place its long-term top in October-December likely before the year ends. Amazon will be last of the FAANG's to be defanged likely placing THE top in the October-January time frame.

For the AMZN monthly chart above, the status quo continues. The MACD line and money flow continue ramping higher providing more juice for price. Thus, after  pullback due to the negative divergence with the other indicators, Amazon will come back up again for a matching or higher high. At that time, say October-November, if the MACD line rolls over, THE top is in for mighty Amazon. It may play out where the MACD line continues higher so the top will be pushed off to November-January. Since Amazon is such a market-leading strong stock it will likely be last to roll over after the broad stock market is already heading south.

The upper band is violated so the middle band at 1302, and rising, is on the table. It is about time that Amazon showed respect to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, since the last time was late 2014 early 2015. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback in price.The ADX still shows a strong trend at 71 in fact this is off the charts. The upside is a strong trend higher. 

Price needs to back off the highs like the red candlestick now shows down -3.4% for September. Then AMZN should rally higher again to satisfy the money flow and MACD line. If the neggie d appears with the MACD as th enew price high prints, THE top will be in. For Amazon, it looks like November-January is a good guess for THE multi-month and multi-year top for AMZN. If you have enjoyed huge multi-year returns from Amazon, keep scaling out as time moves along since THE top is approaching soon. Take one-fourth of the long position off each month going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TLRY Tilray Minute Charts; Wild Flash Spikes and Flash Crashes Due to Marijuana Mania 9/19/18 and 9/20/18

Tilray is the talk of the town, or more correctly the toke of the town. Global investors are in a frenzy buying pot stocks with both fists. CGC, MJ, GWPH and others move higher but TLRY has grabbed the spotlight on the pot stage.

On Wednesday, 9/19/18, Tilray began floating higher and at 2:48 PM EST, bingo, prints over 300! Boom. Price collapses triggering a halt in trading due to excessive volatility. TLRY begins trading again and wham; it is halted again. TLRY comes back on line at 3:10 PM and begins to stabilize but the sellers enter in force again locking in the big gains from early in the day. Boom, TLRY is halted from trading again for the third time due to excessive volatility.

TLRY comes back on line again and is flushed faster than the morning constitutional triggering the fourth trading halt. Tilray flash crashes over a one-hour period from 300+ to 151, a -50% drop. That is hilarious. Wall Street is no different than a rigged Vegas casino. TLRY recovers into the Wednesday closing bell with a flash spike move from 151 to 214. TLRY ends the wild day with a +38% gain.

On Thursday, 9/20/18, TLRY rallies during the first hour of trading but then rolls over and the sellers hit it hard again. Price languishes during the trading day and ends down -18% giving up one-half of yesterday's upside orgy. From 10 AM to noon, two hours, TLRY drops from 240 to 158; -34%. Marijuana is in the mainstream now and there is no turning back. Canada's pot legalization begins next month. Marijuana plants and tulips have a lot in common. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keybot the Quant algorithm flips to the bull side today at SPX 2907 but does not appear too enthusiastic. Bulls need JJTF above 30.06. Bears needs SOX below 1367-1368. One or the other will win. As always, more information is found on Keybot's site.

Keybot the Quant

AAPL Apple Monthly and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence Developing

Since August is in the rearview mirror and Autumn begins Saturday, it is a good time to take  look at the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) monthly stock charts. Facebook has rolled over placing highs in February and July. Apple continues enjoying upside momo. Amazon is the strongest of the FAANG stocks and will be last to place its long-term top. Netflix wobbles at it hangs around near record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the weakest besides Facebook.

FB has likely placed its long-term top. GOOGL will likely print its multi-month and perhaps multi-year top now through November. NFLX will likely top-out next in October-November. AAPL will place its long-term top in October-December likely before the year ends. Amazon will be last of the FAANG's to be defanged likely placing THE top in the October-January time frame.

For the AAPL monthly chart above, the status quo continues. The MACD line continues ramping higher providing more juice for price. Thus, after  pullback due to the negative divergence with the other indicators, Apple will come back up again for a matching or higher high. At that time, say October-November, if the MACD line rolls over, THE top is in for mighty Apple. This may sound like a broken record, but you have to wait for all indicators to be neggie d to call the long-term top.

The upper band is violated so the middle band at 167, and rising, is on the table. The ADX still shows a strong trend at 41 but interestingly, the strong trend peaks move lower over time (purple bars). 

The expectation in the monthly time frame is weakness for a month but then a rally again back to the current highs, then, if the MACD goes neggie d, THE top is in on the multi-month and likely multi-year time frame.

On the AAPL weekly chart, the indicators are in negative divergence after price prints a matching high over the last two-three weeks. RSI and stochastics are overbot. The MACD line is long and strong wanting another higher high in the weekly time frame after a pullback. The purple upward sloping channel was in play until the huge breakout.

A couple months ago, Keystone posted the weekly chart looking for a potential short play. The purple lines were set-up for the bears the only thing that could scuttle the works was the earnings release only a couple days away. Booiiiinnng. Ba-boom. Apple rocket-launched higher on earnings after the earnings reports with the other FAANG's were not particularly inspiring. Apple was the hidden star out of nowhere and price took off to the moon. Then the hype began about printing a $1 trillion market cap, which occurred at that 206-ish price.

Then television commentators such as CNBC's Jim Cramer are screaming, "buy, buy, buy!" Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, says he continues buying Apple stock even at the record highs. AAPL goes parabolic up through the blue channel goosed by joyous rhetoric. The new iPhone X models were unveiled last Wednesday. Money managers and pundits worship at Apple's, and Warren Buffett's, altars. It was quite a joyous run for Apple.

Marrying the weekly and monthly charts, Apple should relax lower for a few days or week or so, but then rally again due to the strong MACD coming back up for a matching high, say a couple weeks out, say early October, then roll over as the MACD goes neggie d. Apple will likely then trend a few weeks lower to tag that middle standard deviation band at 198-210, then likely come back up again since the monthly MACD line is long and strong. Apple will then likely print its multi-year top say, late October-December. If you have enjoyed huge multi-year returns from Apple, keep scaling out as time moves along since THE top is approaching soon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.