Here is an update of the SPX 2-hour chart from the weekend. The idea was to wait for neggie d to form for all indicators which would likely take the stock market into Monday afternoon, which it did. The catalyst (for bulls) was Tuesday with Jerome Powell having his coming out party. Stocks are up over 80% of the time into Fed meetings and Fed events. The bulls kept stocks buoyant into the confirmation hearing and then the Powell Rally took over sending stocks wildly higher. The SPX popped 30 handles in only about 7 or 8 hours. Always remember, the central bankers are the market. That is why they are always mentioned as a caveat.
Since the Fed pops stocks again the chart has to reset with its negative divergence which will mark the top. Remember, the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios printed uber low numbers and want to see a near term market top. The chart shows universal neggie across all indicators (red lines) except for the pesky MACD line. So you should know the drill by now; the top is not in until the MACD line goes neggie d.
The stochastics and RSI are overbot and want a pullback. The MACD line is up in nosebleed territory. The red rising wedge is bearish. Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2612 and rising is on the table as well as the lower band at 2585. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower.
So bears are champing at the bit for their turn at bat which should be very near. The MACD has to go neggie d to open the downside door. Thus, price should drift lower,then recover again for another matching or higher high. When that occurs, check to see if the MACD has gone neggie d. If so, the top is in. If the MACD continues sloping higher, then a couple more candlesticks would be needed to set the MACD up with neggie d.
It looks like a couple of candlesticks should set up the MACD neggie d. If bullish, you want to see the RSI inch higher, even a sliver of strength, since that will keep the upside game going another couple of candlesticks. The bears are close. The top should be in say anytime over the next 4 hours so that would be today. The MACD line will tell you when.
Keybot the Quant algo remains long with the robot tracking volatility, copper and chips as the main drivers of market direction currently.
As this message is typed, the S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 2640.14 the highest number in stock market history. The majority of market participants and watchers do not realize that they are living through historic stock market action in real-time that will be talked about for decades to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Stock chart patterns and technical analysis (TA) explained simply. Disclaimer: This blog and all its contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade or invest based on any information seen on this blog. Please read Terms of Service. The K E Stone blog sites (Keybot the Quant) are blacklisted by Google, so enjoy the ad-free experience, and only use the Donate button when supporting the sites.
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Thursday, November 30, 2017
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts Signal Uber Complacency and Near-Term Top At Hand
The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios are at uber low levels signaling rampant market complacency. Today, the bulls rally stocks on the Powell Rally and happy tax bill talk. Banks are strong. Investors believe that central bankers will always save the day so there is no reason to take on downside protection, hence the low put/call ratios.
When the market is complacent, that is when it peaks and rolls over so that would be expected ahead in this daily time frame. The near-term top should occur at anytime any day forward. The pull back will probably be from 20 to 80 handles in the SPX and if it gains steam to the downside maybe more.
The SPX 2-hour chart posted on the weekend kept going higher and not printing universal negative divergence as yet. The RSI and MACD line has to roll over to place the top so that may take from 2 to 5 more candlesticks which is 4 to 10 hours; say, tomorrow or Thursday for the potential top that would gel together with the need for a top due to the low put/calls. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Negative Divergence Developing
The SPX monthly chart strengthened over the last couple months as the ECB and BOJ keep pumping liquidity into global markets and President Trump keeps promising tax cuts while cutting banking regulations. The red lines show negative divergence. The stochastics are cooked and want this long multi-year upside rally to end. Ditto money flow. However, note the RSI running into the stratosphere above 82. There are 4 days remaining in the month so the chart may change depending if the bears growl this week, or not.
The histogram ticks a tiny bit higher which will help create another month or two of stock market joy. This weak is critical since it may bring the RSI lower to end the month which will bring the multi-year top in sooner rather than what appears to be another 2 to 4 months out.
As mentioned in the previous monthly chart posting, watch the MACD line like a hawk. See how the ADX is moving higher but remains below the peaks from late 2014. This is negative divergence since SPX price moves higher in the same period. This indicator will tell you if the multi-year top is coming on fast or will be delayed a few more months. Bears need to keep the ADX below the prior highs, otherwise, the bulls receive a huge feather in their caps and stocks will likely remain at record highs early next year perhaps into springtime. If the MACD rolls back over and does not take out the 2014 high, the multi-year top for stocks is coming a lot faster than anyone thinks, say within 3 or 4 months or sooner.
The ADX is on the verge of moving into the purple box which signals a strong upside trend on the monthly basis. This would create strong bull juice to begin the new year. The downtrend was very strong in 2008 into 2009 when former Fed Chairman Bernanke rode in on a white horse and began printing money in March 2009 (QE1) to save the stock market and protect the wealthy elite class.
The 2014 period was another strong trend for stocks, this time higher, but that petered out. Never fear. The BOJ and ECB stepped in to keep the easy money printing presses going and guarantee that stocks will continue higher forever. So here we are in late 2017.
The projection is that stocks will pull back in sync with the weak daily and weekly charts but on this monthly basis, the S&P 500 will come back up again for new record highs after the near-term pullback. The multi-year top will be in when the RSI and histogram go neggie d; the next 4 days are important.
From the chart above, the multi-year top should print within the next 4 months it is a question of narrowing it down further and more will be known on Thursday. Keystone can post more monthly charts once the data point for November is cast in stone this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The histogram ticks a tiny bit higher which will help create another month or two of stock market joy. This weak is critical since it may bring the RSI lower to end the month which will bring the multi-year top in sooner rather than what appears to be another 2 to 4 months out.
As mentioned in the previous monthly chart posting, watch the MACD line like a hawk. See how the ADX is moving higher but remains below the peaks from late 2014. This is negative divergence since SPX price moves higher in the same period. This indicator will tell you if the multi-year top is coming on fast or will be delayed a few more months. Bears need to keep the ADX below the prior highs, otherwise, the bulls receive a huge feather in their caps and stocks will likely remain at record highs early next year perhaps into springtime. If the MACD rolls back over and does not take out the 2014 high, the multi-year top for stocks is coming a lot faster than anyone thinks, say within 3 or 4 months or sooner.
The ADX is on the verge of moving into the purple box which signals a strong upside trend on the monthly basis. This would create strong bull juice to begin the new year. The downtrend was very strong in 2008 into 2009 when former Fed Chairman Bernanke rode in on a white horse and began printing money in March 2009 (QE1) to save the stock market and protect the wealthy elite class.
The 2014 period was another strong trend for stocks, this time higher, but that petered out. Never fear. The BOJ and ECB stepped in to keep the easy money printing presses going and guarantee that stocks will continue higher forever. So here we are in late 2017.
The projection is that stocks will pull back in sync with the weak daily and weekly charts but on this monthly basis, the S&P 500 will come back up again for new record highs after the near-term pullback. The multi-year top will be in when the RSI and histogram go neggie d; the next 4 days are important.
From the chart above, the multi-year top should print within the next 4 months it is a question of narrowing it down further and more will be known on Thursday. Keystone can post more monthly charts once the data point for November is cast in stone this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended
The SPX weekly chart is set up for a pull back. The RSI and stochastics are overbot and agreeable to a move lower in this weekly time frame. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators so the move higher is running out of gas and set up for a spankdown. Note the volume last week one-half the average weekly volume. Markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and closed early Friday but the new stock market record highs, with the SPX closing above 2600 for the first time in history, occurs on vapor volume.
The maroon lines show the top Keystone called in the summer. As usual, however, once stocks wanted to move lower, the central bankers step in to save the day. The ECB and BOJ remain very accomodative so stocks float higher. The world is awash in central banker liquidity sending all asset classes to bubblicious highs. It is interesting that from a technical perspective, there was no reason for the stock market to recover that quickly in the late summer--except for central bankers.
The upper band was violated so the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 2513 is on the table. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion at some point forward.
The ADX leaps higher to 38 indicating that the weekly uptrend in the S&P 500 is a very strong trend higher (pink box). When the stock market softened after the May 2015 top, that Keystone called back then, equities trended lower with lower lows and lower highs. The Fed and other central banks panicked in early 2016 and stepped in to save the day with liquidity again. That created the Tweezer Bottom (blue circle). The central bankers are the market.
The SPX daily and weekly charts are set up for a pull back so if you were contemplating on trimming positions, don't wait any longer. The SPX monthly chart is setting up with neggie d, as has been the case this year, but the RSI keeps running higher wanting to create more monthly highs in price. This RSI may retreat over the next four days since the EOM is Thursday. This week is shaping up to be immensely important on how the year ends. Tax loss selling typically hits a peak the first week of December so if the bears can begin the down move in equities it may carry through into mid-December.
The expectation is for the stock market to pull back on the daily and weekly basis. Market bears, howerver, cannot expect any extended downside in the stock market until the ADX above drops below 28-ish, the RSI on the monthly chart goes neggie d and also for the utilities sector to roll over. The neggie d on the weekly chart above indicates that there is more of a likelihood that stocks will finish the year weak.
The monthly chart indicates that stocks will come up for another record high after the selloff. The best Christmas present the market bears can receive is for stocks to sell off on Monday through Thursday to end the month weak since this may bring the RSI on the monthly chart lower and usher in the multi-year top in the stock market sooner rather than say, 2 to 4 months out. The monthly charts receive final data points at 4 PM EST Thursday, 11/30/17.
Of course, any additional happy dovish talk from central bankers or from President Trump can create a temporary further boost in prices before the downside in the near-term begins. All things staying status quo, equities should begin rolling over this week and create at least 2 or 3 weeks of soggy stock market prices ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The maroon lines show the top Keystone called in the summer. As usual, however, once stocks wanted to move lower, the central bankers step in to save the day. The ECB and BOJ remain very accomodative so stocks float higher. The world is awash in central banker liquidity sending all asset classes to bubblicious highs. It is interesting that from a technical perspective, there was no reason for the stock market to recover that quickly in the late summer--except for central bankers.
The upper band was violated so the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 2513 is on the table. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion at some point forward.
The ADX leaps higher to 38 indicating that the weekly uptrend in the S&P 500 is a very strong trend higher (pink box). When the stock market softened after the May 2015 top, that Keystone called back then, equities trended lower with lower lows and lower highs. The Fed and other central banks panicked in early 2016 and stepped in to save the day with liquidity again. That created the Tweezer Bottom (blue circle). The central bankers are the market.
The SPX daily and weekly charts are set up for a pull back so if you were contemplating on trimming positions, don't wait any longer. The SPX monthly chart is setting up with neggie d, as has been the case this year, but the RSI keeps running higher wanting to create more monthly highs in price. This RSI may retreat over the next four days since the EOM is Thursday. This week is shaping up to be immensely important on how the year ends. Tax loss selling typically hits a peak the first week of December so if the bears can begin the down move in equities it may carry through into mid-December.
The expectation is for the stock market to pull back on the daily and weekly basis. Market bears, howerver, cannot expect any extended downside in the stock market until the ADX above drops below 28-ish, the RSI on the monthly chart goes neggie d and also for the utilities sector to roll over. The neggie d on the weekly chart above indicates that there is more of a likelihood that stocks will finish the year weak.
The monthly chart indicates that stocks will come up for another record high after the selloff. The best Christmas present the market bears can receive is for stocks to sell off on Monday through Thursday to end the month weak since this may bring the RSI on the monthly chart lower and usher in the multi-year top in the stock market sooner rather than say, 2 to 4 months out. The monthly charts receive final data points at 4 PM EST Thursday, 11/30/17.
Of course, any additional happy dovish talk from central bankers or from President Trump can create a temporary further boost in prices before the downside in the near-term begins. All things staying status quo, equities should begin rolling over this week and create at least 2 or 3 weeks of soggy stock market prices ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Saturday, November 25, 2017
SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation
The SPX daily chart is set up with overbot stochastics and negative divergence for the chart indicators so a move lower is expected. Perhaps the 2-hour chart above may shed some light on the timing of this potential near-term top. The red lines show the universal neggie d in play across all chart indicators although the MACD line is squeezing out a bit more juice. This may create a jog move in price down, then up, then down.
The upper band was violated so the middle band at 2592 is on the table and lower band at 2574. The upper band is at 2609 so this level must be respected as the new week begins trading on Monday morning. The pink circle shows the two top candlesticks with a mini tweezer top pattern. Typically, the upper shadows from the candlestick body should be longer to create a more obvious tweezer but the mini-tweezer is worth watching nonetheless and may be calling out the near-term top now.
The SPX daily chart and the 2-hour above indicate price is ready to roll over. The 2-hour above may jog sideways for a couple candlesticks to allow the MACD line and money flow to set up with negative divergence. That will identify the near-term top. If price drops, then comes back up once more that would be 3 or 4 hours of trading time so the near-term top may occur around lunchtime or in the afternoon on Monday as long as the Fed, other central bankers and the orange-headed President Trump remain quiet and do not pump the market higher with dovish talk. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The upper band was violated so the middle band at 2592 is on the table and lower band at 2574. The upper band is at 2609 so this level must be respected as the new week begins trading on Monday morning. The pink circle shows the two top candlesticks with a mini tweezer top pattern. Typically, the upper shadows from the candlestick body should be longer to create a more obvious tweezer but the mini-tweezer is worth watching nonetheless and may be calling out the near-term top now.
The SPX daily chart and the 2-hour above indicate price is ready to roll over. The 2-hour above may jog sideways for a couple candlesticks to allow the MACD line and money flow to set up with negative divergence. That will identify the near-term top. If price drops, then comes back up once more that would be 3 or 4 hours of trading time so the near-term top may occur around lunchtime or in the afternoon on Monday as long as the Fed, other central bankers and the orange-headed President Trump remain quiet and do not pump the market higher with dovish talk. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; SPX CLOSES ABOVE 2600 FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
The SPX closes above the 2600 level for the first time in history at 2602.42. The highest number for SPX ever printed in history is 2604.21. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The red lines show a rising wedge pattern and negative divergence with the indicators, and overbot stoch's; all bearish indications. The S&P 500 tagged the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2585 is on the table and lower band at 2567.
Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. The purple box for the ADX shows when the S&P 500 was in a strong trend higher but this petered out a week or so ago. The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. The SPX should receive a move lower at least to the 2585-ish area for starters. Happy talk from the central bankers or from President Trump may delay the rollover.
The little circles show volume distribution days. After an up day in price, Joe Sixpack, Ma and Pa Kettle and Uncle Frank run into the market the next day to buy shares. The smart money distributes the shares to the bag holding suckers lining up with naive smiles on their faces. The trading volume on the following day is larger than the buying volume on the prior day when the price was moving higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. The purple box for the ADX shows when the S&P 500 was in a strong trend higher but this petered out a week or so ago. The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. The SPX should receive a move lower at least to the 2585-ish area for starters. Happy talk from the central bankers or from President Trump may delay the rollover.
The little circles show volume distribution days. After an up day in price, Joe Sixpack, Ma and Pa Kettle and Uncle Frank run into the market the next day to buy shares. The smart money distributes the shares to the bag holding suckers lining up with naive smiles on their faces. The trading volume on the following day is larger than the buying volume on the prior day when the price was moving higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation
Everyone keeps asking if the big stock market top is in. Keystone has been highlighting the monthly charts and waiting for the stars to align this year. When the multi-month and more likely multi-year top prints, it will be in sync with utilities rolling over at the same time or utes rolling over from zero to 2 months ahead of the broad stock market. As the utilities continue to rally this year, it is tough sledding for the market bears. Thus, a key exercise is watching the utilities to see when they roll over.
Two tools are useful to assess UTIL; the 50-week MA and the closing price 15 weeks ago. The 15-week look back determines if the utes are in a weekly uptrend or downtrend and this will correspond to the same direction in the broad stock market. Obviously, market bears want to see UTIL roll over into a weekly downtrend which portends trouble ahead for equities. Also important is the 50-week MA support now at 711. Consider this as a trapdoor for the stock market. These technical analysis concepts with the utilities are from Norm Fosback years ago; copies of his red cover Stock Market Logic book should be floating around somewhere.
The 50-week MA is at 711 and price is at 759 so obviously this is bullish for the stock market. The blue line is at 738.38 the closing price from 15 weeks ago. As long as price remains above 738 for the week ahead, UTIL remains in a weekly uptrend and the bulls are happy. Bears need UTIL to drop below 738. Things get interesting for the week after which is 12/4/17 through 12/8/17 since the UTIL 15-week look back number is 746.48 shown by the brown line. Now we are getting more in the neighborhood of the utes potentially rolling over into a weekly downtrend. For now, the trend is up.
The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators so a spank down a la the June and September pull backs is likely on tap. The RSI is trying to sneak out a hair more juice but UTIL looks like it needs a rest. Stochs are overbot and agreeable to a pull back. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since prices can collapse quite dramatically from a rising wedge.
Look at the big upside volume coming into the utes over the last month. Market geniuses pat each other on the back and tell one another to buy utilities since they are safe defensive plays that pay a divvy. What dolts. The central bankers have destroyed the expected business and economic cycles. The easy money has jammed all asset classes into overextended territories. In past economic cycles, sure, utilities and consumer staples were good places to hide in an economic and market downturn but not now. These sectors are pumped as high or higher than the broad stock market the opposite position they would be in if the economic cycles were functioning properly without non-stop central banker liquidity. If you are one of the Einstein's that invested heavy in utilities over the last month and told your wife that you are as smart a trader as Jesse Livermore, you are instead only covering yourself with a fig leaf and may want to rethink your strategy.
The ADX pink box verifies that UTIL is in a solid uptrend. Market bears need the ADX to drop sub 25 to show that the uptrend in utilities, on this weekly basis, is done. Note how price has violated the upper standard deviation band and then returned to the middle band over recent months. Price has violated the upper band again so the 739 is on the table and even the lower band at 766. Price is also extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower.
Taking a gander at the UTIL monthly chart, it displays a rising wedge pattern, overbot conditions, neggie d across all indicators, an upper band violation and overextended price above the moving averages; all these indicators are bearish. Thus, the stars are slowly aligning for the market bears.
Watch the UTIL 738 level for the week ahead and then starting Friday, 12/1/17, at 4 PM EST and all of the following week, watch UTIL 746. If these numbers fail, you know the stock market is slipping into big trouble ahead. If UTIL remains above 738 for the week ahead and 746 the week after, it is nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead for the stock market bulls who will be singing "Happy Days Are Here Again" each day while sipping Fed wine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Two tools are useful to assess UTIL; the 50-week MA and the closing price 15 weeks ago. The 15-week look back determines if the utes are in a weekly uptrend or downtrend and this will correspond to the same direction in the broad stock market. Obviously, market bears want to see UTIL roll over into a weekly downtrend which portends trouble ahead for equities. Also important is the 50-week MA support now at 711. Consider this as a trapdoor for the stock market. These technical analysis concepts with the utilities are from Norm Fosback years ago; copies of his red cover Stock Market Logic book should be floating around somewhere.
The 50-week MA is at 711 and price is at 759 so obviously this is bullish for the stock market. The blue line is at 738.38 the closing price from 15 weeks ago. As long as price remains above 738 for the week ahead, UTIL remains in a weekly uptrend and the bulls are happy. Bears need UTIL to drop below 738. Things get interesting for the week after which is 12/4/17 through 12/8/17 since the UTIL 15-week look back number is 746.48 shown by the brown line. Now we are getting more in the neighborhood of the utes potentially rolling over into a weekly downtrend. For now, the trend is up.
The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators so a spank down a la the June and September pull backs is likely on tap. The RSI is trying to sneak out a hair more juice but UTIL looks like it needs a rest. Stochs are overbot and agreeable to a pull back. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since prices can collapse quite dramatically from a rising wedge.
Look at the big upside volume coming into the utes over the last month. Market geniuses pat each other on the back and tell one another to buy utilities since they are safe defensive plays that pay a divvy. What dolts. The central bankers have destroyed the expected business and economic cycles. The easy money has jammed all asset classes into overextended territories. In past economic cycles, sure, utilities and consumer staples were good places to hide in an economic and market downturn but not now. These sectors are pumped as high or higher than the broad stock market the opposite position they would be in if the economic cycles were functioning properly without non-stop central banker liquidity. If you are one of the Einstein's that invested heavy in utilities over the last month and told your wife that you are as smart a trader as Jesse Livermore, you are instead only covering yourself with a fig leaf and may want to rethink your strategy.
The ADX pink box verifies that UTIL is in a solid uptrend. Market bears need the ADX to drop sub 25 to show that the uptrend in utilities, on this weekly basis, is done. Note how price has violated the upper standard deviation band and then returned to the middle band over recent months. Price has violated the upper band again so the 739 is on the table and even the lower band at 766. Price is also extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower.
Taking a gander at the UTIL monthly chart, it displays a rising wedge pattern, overbot conditions, neggie d across all indicators, an upper band violation and overextended price above the moving averages; all these indicators are bearish. Thus, the stars are slowly aligning for the market bears.
Watch the UTIL 738 level for the week ahead and then starting Friday, 12/1/17, at 4 PM EST and all of the following week, watch UTIL 746. If these numbers fail, you know the stock market is slipping into big trouble ahead. If UTIL remains above 738 for the week ahead and 746 the week after, it is nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead for the stock market bulls who will be singing "Happy Days Are Here Again" each day while sipping Fed wine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
VXX Volatility Futures ETN Weekly Chart
The VIX flash crashes to a record low at 8.56 on Friday, 11/24/17, at the closing bell at 1 PM EST (early close on the day after Thanksgiving). The VIX recovered immediately in the flash crash and finished at 9.65. The global central bankers maintain their jackboots on the throat of volatility which creates perpetual lift in the stock markets.
The volatility ETF and ETN trading instruments are flawed. If you are a novice trader, or any trader for that matter, stay away from these plays on volatility since you will lose your money. A $10,000 play in VXX 6 years ago will get you 31 dollars and 64 cents today. Ditto for 3x ETF's; avoid all of these flawed tickers as well. Stick to single ETF's and if you feel adventurous perhaps give a 2x ETF a whirl but stay in this more sane sandbox.
Volatility is crushed lower year after year by the central bankers to maintain elevated stock markets. The central bankers are the market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The volatility ETF and ETN trading instruments are flawed. If you are a novice trader, or any trader for that matter, stay away from these plays on volatility since you will lose your money. A $10,000 play in VXX 6 years ago will get you 31 dollars and 64 cents today. Ditto for 3x ETF's; avoid all of these flawed tickers as well. Stick to single ETF's and if you feel adventurous perhaps give a 2x ETF a whirl but stay in this more sane sandbox.
Volatility is crushed lower year after year by the central bankers to maintain elevated stock markets. The central bankers are the market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
VIX Volatility 1-Minute Chart Flash Crash 11/24/17; VIX Prints Historic Low at 8.56
One minutes before the early closing bell at 1 PM EST on Friday, 11/24/17, the day after Thanksgiving, the
bottom falls out of volatility. At 12:59 PM, the VIX flash crashes -12% from
9.68 to 8.56 an all-time record low. One minute later, the VIX rocket launches
skyward directly back to 9.68 then price staggers sideways ending at 9.65.
Trading volume in the VXX ETF spikes hugely higher (novice traders should not
play volatility ETF’s or any 3x ETF’s since they will only take your money).
VXX ends the session at 31.64.
This is a significant event in market history occurring in
real-time. The VIX volatility fear gauge prints the lowest number ever at 8.56.
The market behavior is becoming scary.
VIX ends the week at 9.65. The VIX prints an all-time low today at 8.56; an
8-handle! The global central bankers maintain their jackboots on the throat of
volatility and voila; stocks move higher forever. Central bankers are holding
their heads in their hands asking each other, “what have we done?” Chart is courtesy of Big Charts and annotated by Keystone. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
SPX S&P 500 and RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps 3-Minute Charts; SPX PRINTS 2600 FIRST TIME IN HISTORY; SPX (S&P 500), INDU (Dow Jones Industrials), COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite), NDX (Nasdaq 100) and RUT (Russell 2000) Print New All-Time Record Highs
Five major US stock indexes print all-time record highs on 11/21/17. Traders are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again." The bulls are unstoppable continually supported by the easy money flowing from global central bankers. The world remains awash in liquidity.
S&P 500 prints above 2600 for the first time in history. The RUT last printed a record high in early October and now the small caps join the party. Traders are throwing money at the stock market ignoring geopolitical events, sluggish growth and a flattening yield curve.
Index All-Time High All-Time Closing High
SPX 2601.19 2599.03
INDU, or DJI 23617.80 23590.83
COMPQ 6862.66 6862.48
NDX 6380.07 6378.63
RUT 1519.53 1518.89
This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Sunday, November 19, 2017
VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Battle at 200-Day MA Continues
The battle at the VIX 200-day MA line in the sand at 11.15 continues. Note how price came down to kiss the 11.15 on Friday and bounced. This indicated that the market bulls did not have enough strength to take the stock market higher. The VIX is at 11.43.
The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and is tracking VIX 10.76 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls win big below 10.76. Bears create stock market weakness above 10.76.
You can likely watch this chart this week and it will tell you what you need to know for market direction. If the VIX remains above 11.15, the market bears are celebrating as the stock market deteriorates lower. If the VIX drops below 11.15 and remains above 10.76, the bulls are winning the battle and you will see the stock market moving higher with a positive bias but not yet convincing on the upside. If the VIX drops below 10.76, bingo. The market bulls wil lthrow confetti as they watch the SPX catapult above 2600. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 11/22/17: The bulls ram volatility lower with the VIX sporting a 9-handle so the stock market jumps higher the SPX prints above 2600 for the first time in history. Market bears need VIX above 10.65 to create selling. Bulls rule the stock market as long as VIX remains below 10.65.
The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and is tracking VIX 10.76 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls win big below 10.76. Bears create stock market weakness above 10.76.
You can likely watch this chart this week and it will tell you what you need to know for market direction. If the VIX remains above 11.15, the market bears are celebrating as the stock market deteriorates lower. If the VIX drops below 11.15 and remains above 10.76, the bulls are winning the battle and you will see the stock market moving higher with a positive bias but not yet convincing on the upside. If the VIX drops below 10.76, bingo. The market bulls wil lthrow confetti as they watch the SPX catapult above 2600. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 11/22/17: The bulls ram volatility lower with the VIX sporting a 9-handle so the stock market jumps higher the SPX prints above 2600 for the first time in history. Market bears need VIX above 10.65 to create selling. Bulls rule the stock market as long as VIX remains below 10.65.
YC2YR 2-10 Yield Spread Weekly Chart; Yield Curve Flattens to One-Decade Low
The flattening yield curve is receiving lots of attention. The 2-10 spread drops to 61 bips the lowest number since October 2007 one decade ago. A flattening yield curve creates angst since it typically foretells an economic recession.
The Federal Reserve plans to hike rates next month and then three more times next year driving the short-end 2-year yield higher. Inflation is not occurring since wage growth is not occurring and economic growth remains stagnant which keeps the long-end yields low. This double-whammy creates the ever-flattening yield curve.
The light blue lines show a falling wedge pattern which predicts a move higher in the spread. Ditto the blue lines for the indicators that are set up with positive divergence wanting to push the spread higher (wider). The spread has also violated the lower standard deviations band so a move higher would be expected targeting the middle band at 0.83% (83 basis points). So just when everyone is screaming from the rooftops that the yield curve flattening will continue to narrow, it will likely instead widen on this weekly basis taking a rest from the slip-slide south during the last few years.
Thus, the spread moves higher via four ways. Either the 2-year yield moves lower with the 10-year yield anchored, or the 10-year yield moves higher with the 2-year yield anchored, or the 2-year yield moves lower and the 10-year yield moves higher at the same time. The fourth way, if inflation appears, would be both the 2 and 10-year yields rising with the 10-year yield rising faster than the 2-year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The Federal Reserve plans to hike rates next month and then three more times next year driving the short-end 2-year yield higher. Inflation is not occurring since wage growth is not occurring and economic growth remains stagnant which keeps the long-end yields low. This double-whammy creates the ever-flattening yield curve.
The light blue lines show a falling wedge pattern which predicts a move higher in the spread. Ditto the blue lines for the indicators that are set up with positive divergence wanting to push the spread higher (wider). The spread has also violated the lower standard deviations band so a move higher would be expected targeting the middle band at 0.83% (83 basis points). So just when everyone is screaming from the rooftops that the yield curve flattening will continue to narrow, it will likely instead widen on this weekly basis taking a rest from the slip-slide south during the last few years.
Thus, the spread moves higher via four ways. Either the 2-year yield moves lower with the 10-year yield anchored, or the 10-year yield moves higher with the 2-year yield anchored, or the 2-year yield moves lower and the 10-year yield moves higher at the same time. The fourth way, if inflation appears, would be both the 2 and 10-year yields rising with the 10-year yield rising faster than the 2-year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Friday, November 17, 2017
Keybot the Quant is Long but Stock Market is a Toss-Up
Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant, is on the long side after going short than back to the long side this week. Watch volatility, copper and banks; VIX 10.76, JJC 34.79, XLF 26.00, respectively. Market bulls win big with the SPX running above 2600 if they can push the VIX below 10.76 (below 11.14 will create lift in stocks). Market bears need either JJC under 34.79 or XLF under 26.00 to create strong downside selling in the stock market. One of these three parameters will flinch and tell you the direction of the stock market. More information is on Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant
Keybot the Quant
Monday, November 13, 2017
RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; Bounce or Die from the 50-Day MA
The Russell 2000 is parked at 1475 exactly on the 50-day MA support/resistance. RUT must choose to bounce or die from this level and the broad stock market will follow in the same direction. As the small caps go, so goes the broad stock market. Watch the RUT 1475 level very closely to see who wins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Battle at 200-Day MA Continues
The VIX moves above 12 today ushering in stock market weakness. Long time readers know the 200-day MA, now at 11.14, is a critical bull-bear market signal. The VIX is at 11.50 above the 200-day so the bears rule the stock market.
Keybot the Quant algorithm is on the long side and tracking VIX 10.66 as a key bull-bear line in the sand. Thus, market bears win big with stocks tumbling lower if the VIX remains above 11.14. Stocks will stagger sideways with a slight negative bias if the VIX moves through 10.66-11.14. Market bulls will throw a party if the VIX drops below 10.66 because the SPX will be running above 2600.
The Keybot algo is also tracking the banks so watch XLF 26.00. Price begins Tuesday at 26.12. The stock market will fall apart if XLF drops below 26.00 and stays below trending lower.
There is also drama occurring in the Russell 2000 small caps. RUT is parked at its 50-day MA support/resistance at 1475 and will bounce or die from this level taking the broad stock market in the same direction.
Mixing this market stew together, market bears win big if the VIX remains above 11.14 and the XLF drops below 26.00 and the RUT collapses from the 50-day MA at 1475. Market bulls will rejoice if the VIX drops below 11.14, especially if it drops under 10.66, and if XLF remains above 26.00 heading higher and if the Russell 2000 small caps bounce higher from the 1475 level. Someone is going to win and someone is going to lose; someone will rejoice while the other cries. There are winners and losers everyday in the big city. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Keybot the Quant algorithm is on the long side and tracking VIX 10.66 as a key bull-bear line in the sand. Thus, market bears win big with stocks tumbling lower if the VIX remains above 11.14. Stocks will stagger sideways with a slight negative bias if the VIX moves through 10.66-11.14. Market bulls will throw a party if the VIX drops below 10.66 because the SPX will be running above 2600.
The Keybot algo is also tracking the banks so watch XLF 26.00. Price begins Tuesday at 26.12. The stock market will fall apart if XLF drops below 26.00 and stays below trending lower.
There is also drama occurring in the Russell 2000 small caps. RUT is parked at its 50-day MA support/resistance at 1475 and will bounce or die from this level taking the broad stock market in the same direction.
Mixing this market stew together, market bears win big if the VIX remains above 11.14 and the XLF drops below 26.00 and the RUT collapses from the 50-day MA at 1475. Market bulls will rejoice if the VIX drops below 11.14, especially if it drops under 10.66, and if XLF remains above 26.00 heading higher and if the Russell 2000 small caps bounce higher from the 1475 level. Someone is going to win and someone is going to lose; someone will rejoice while the other cries. There are winners and losers everyday in the big city. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
YC2YR 2-10 Yield Spread; Yield Curve Flattens to 10-Year Low
YC2YR is the 2-10 Treasury yield spread. The yield curve can be assessed in different ways the 2-10's and 5-30's are two of the favorites. Most on Wall Street monitor the 2-10 closely. This morning, the 10-year Treasury note yield is at 2.33% and the 2-year yield is at 1.63%. Subtracting the two is 0.70% which is 70 basis points or 70 bips.
Yesterday the 2-10 spread narrowed to 69 bips; a 69-handle! This is the lowest spread in a decade. Note that the yield curve was inverted into the October 2007 stock market top. Inversion is a fancy word that means the 2-year yield moves above the 10-year yield. A yield curve inversion precedes a recession. Thus, many market participants are concerned about the decreasing spread now occurring. Banks cannot make as much money if the yield curve flattens; they need a wider spread.
You can see some congestion in the 0.40 to 0.65 area from late 2007 so this may serve as a soft landing and firm support for the yield curve; 40 to 65 bips. If it is lost, the yield curve will invert and troubling times will be ahead for the world's economy and stock markets.
Since the central bankers are pumping all asset classes around the world uniformly higher for nine years, the whole house of cards will likely retreat together. The central bankers have destroyed the expected business and economic cycles with nine years of obscene Keynesian money printing schemes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Yesterday the 2-10 spread narrowed to 69 bips; a 69-handle! This is the lowest spread in a decade. Note that the yield curve was inverted into the October 2007 stock market top. Inversion is a fancy word that means the 2-year yield moves above the 10-year yield. A yield curve inversion precedes a recession. Thus, many market participants are concerned about the decreasing spread now occurring. Banks cannot make as much money if the yield curve flattens; they need a wider spread.
You can see some congestion in the 0.40 to 0.65 area from late 2007 so this may serve as a soft landing and firm support for the yield curve; 40 to 65 bips. If it is lost, the yield curve will invert and troubling times will be ahead for the world's economy and stock markets.
Since the central bankers are pumping all asset classes around the world uniformly higher for nine years, the whole house of cards will likely retreat together. The central bankers have destroyed the expected business and economic cycles with nine years of obscene Keynesian money printing schemes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Keybot the Quant On Long Side Tracking Volatility
Keybot the Quant remains on the long side for the last week and one-half. Watch VIX 10.62. Market bulls rule below 10.62 while bears rule above 10.62. VIX is currently printing at 9.33 on Tuesday morning.
As always, more information is found at Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant
As always, more information is found at Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant