CPCE Put/Call Ratio Continues to Signal Market Complacency and a Top

The CPCE continues to print low numbers verifying rampant market complacency and fearlessness. The low VIX,  under 13, also verifies the ongoing complacency. Typically, markets ebb and flow from complacency to fear and then back to complacency again. The blue bar shows that there has been zero fear in markets since June. This is astounding for the stock market and very odd behavior. The CPCE should have printed at 0.80-ish or higher within the last 10 weeks.

The complacency continues to signal a stock market top at hand. The central bankers have twisted markets into a sick distorted pretzel. The expectation would be for stocks to sell off until the CPCE prints inside the green circle where an acceptable near-term bottom will form for equities. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

HLF Herbalife Weekly Chart

The baby battle between activist investors Akman and Icahn continues with Herbalife used as the field of play. Ackman is massively short HLF while Icahn just bot more stock on the long side and says he is in at around 59 on an average basis. Who will win this battle of the babies?

The chart favors the short side. Price had tagged the upper standard deviation band and traveled back to the middle band at 61.81. The indicators are staggering sideways not tipping their hands. The red lines show negative divergence which created the two spankdowns over the last few months (red arrows). At the price peak one month ago, the RSI and MACD lines are long and strong in the March to July time frame hinting at the possibility of another matching or higher high. Longer term weakness appears embedded.

The red rising wedge is an ominous bearish pattern. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price has come down this week and is sitting on the lower red trend line. If price ventures lower it will likely target the lower standard deviation band at 55.56. However, the forecast would be that prices float higher inside the apex area of that wedge, perhaps for a week or three, and this will be the peak in HLF and it will then roll over to the downside. The 65-70 area may be an attractive place to short from. Keystone does not hold HLF and probably will not trade it. As long as the indicators remain negatively diverged if price comes up for the matching high, then HLF should sell off going forward for the weeks ahead.

It looks like baby Ackman will come up the winner in the months ahead versus baby Icahn. Icahn likely placed a bad trade by buying more shares on the long side to prove a point over the last few days. If price comes up, or even at these levels since Icahn's entry is averaging around 59, he would be wise to likely start distributing his shares each day forward and exit his long position before price fails through the lower red trend line and the rising wedge sends price dramatically and quickly lower. It would not be surprising to see price down at the 200-week MA at 52.67, say, in September-November. Price is stumbling sideways over the last few months so the baby activist investors keep slapping each other's faces. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side about noon time Friday at SPX 2166. Retail stocks failed late last week creating broad stock market weakness. Retail, volatility and commodities are the three key parameters currently controlling market direction. Keybot may whipsaw back to the long side early next week if retail stocks recover.

As always, more information is found at Keybot's site; Keybot the Quant

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The low volatility creates bull market joy. The green circles show market bottoms and the red circles are market tops. The 200-day MA is a critical signal and it remains higher at 16.91 giving the bull's the nod. Keystone's algorithm, Keybot the Quant, calls out VIX 14.45 as a key line in the sand. If the VIX moves above 14.45, bad things are going to start happening to the stock market. The bulls are happy and content as long as they keep the VIX below 14.45. VIX is currently trading at 13.83 inching higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 8/27/16: The dust continues to settle after Yellen tries to flap a hawkish wing but everyone knows she is a dove, so Fischer grabs a microphone to double-down on hawkishness which creates a soggy Friday stock market. The VIX spiked above the critical 14.45 level which is very bad for stocks. Late in the Friday session, the VIX drops back below 14.45 and closes at 13.65. The bulls are not worried or concerned as long as VIX stays under 14.45. Now that it poked above, if it pokes above 14.45 again early next week, stocks will begin falling in earnest with the bears slapping the bulls silly. If the VIX stays below 14.45, stocks will recover and the bulls will be smoking expensive cigars with their feet up on the desk.

YC2YR 2-10 Treasury Yield Curve Spread Weekly Chart Flattening Yield Curves May Subside

The yield curve continues to flatten across Treasuries the chart shows the 2-10 spread at 80 bips (1.55% for 10-year yield minus 0.75% for 2-year yield equals 80 basis points). At this writing the 2-year yield is up one bip to 0.76% so the 2-10 spread flattens further to 79 bips. The yield curve has not been this flat since late 2007 (pink line). The spread came down and filled that gap from back then.

The spread between the 5-year and 30-year yields are at multi-year flatness as well. Ditto the 2-year to 30-year spread. Global yield curves are flattening. Note the flatness in the spread in 2006-2008 which led into the recession and market crash. The green lines show the rising wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence that want to see a bounce higher in the yield spread reflecting a steepening yield curve. Banks love a steeper yield curve.

The rise in the 2-10 spread can manifest itself in a few ways. First, the 2-year spread could remain anchored while the long duration Treasuries sell off (lower prices higher yields). Second, the long duration yields can remain anchored and the 2-year yield drops. If Yellen flaps her dovish wings, the 2-year yield will drop. If she is hawkish, the 2-year yield will rise. Note the dilemma facing Yellen. If she is hawkish touting a strong economy, the 2-year yield will rise creating a flatter yield curve, hurting the banks, and stifling any economic recovery that she believe's is coming. The Federal Reserve and other central bankers are getting tangled up and caught in their sick Keynesian webs.

Another way that the spread can rise, as the chart above predicts on the weekly basis, is all yields moving higher with the long end yields, 10's and 30's, moving up at a slightly quicker pace than the short end (long end notes and bonds selling off creating higher yields). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GDX Gold Miners ETF Daily Chart

The gold miners were slapped silly yesterday down -7.1%. The junior gold miners, GDXJ, were punished -7.8%. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence make the top call easy a couple weeks ago. Price collapses through the 20-day MA and lost the 50-day MA at 29.06. Look for a back kiss to the 27.80-ish and 29-ish levels.

The indicators are weak and bleak. Stochastics are in the cellar, oversold, so that will help price to bounce, however, lower prices would be expected in the daily time frame. The weekly chart is nasty receiving the spank down from a rising wedge and universal negative divergence. Things do not look good for the gold miners going forward. They may receive a reprieve after Yellen's comments tomorrow morning  if so and you have wanted to exit, it is likely a good time to jump ship.

The miners are on an island above the 26.4-ish level so an island reversal pattern may occur if price falls to 26.4, then immediately gaps down to 25.4 and lower. The July-August price behavior is an M Top, or double-top, as well. Gold miners have been an orgy of joy this year with GDX rallying from under 13 to 32, a +150% gain, a double and more. The miners will likely enter a choppy sideways pattern that has a lower bias for the days and weeks ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Negative Divergence Tight Bands Ready to Squeeze-Out Big Move

The market bears have all systems go for lower stock prices ahead except for one thing; Fed Chair Yellen, Queen of the Doves, speaks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at 10 AM EST Friday morning (3 PM London; 4 PM Frankfurt and Paris; 11 PM Tokyo). Thus, anything can happen. Charts can only price in what is known up to the minute.

The red lines show the rising wedge patterns that are bearish patterns. The indicators are coming off of overbot conditions. The indicators display universal neggie d which wants to create a severe spankdown in price but once again, Yellen may flap her dovish wings and foil the bear's hopes. The MACD cross is bearish.

The brown circles show distribution taking place the smart money handing off shares to the dumb money. The tight pink standard deviation lines remain squeezed in tight. There is likely a very large move coming once price is squeezed out from the tight bands but tight bands do not predict direction only that a 50-handle and more is likely in the days ahead, say through next week, one way or the other.

The SPX slides below the 20-day MA at 2178 another feather in the bear's cap. Price remains elevated above its moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. If Yellen was not speaking tomorrow, the chart would already be rolling over to the downside. The low CPCE put/call ratio has not been respected as yet; the complacency predicts a market top at hand.

Yellen just picked up her white dove wings from the cleaners and plans to fly around Jackson Hole and drop money from the sky. Can Yellen walk a tightrope tomorrow morning? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 5-Minute Chart Diamond Pattern Sideways symmetrical Triangle

Here is an update of the 5-minute chart from the other day with the pink diamond pattern in play as well as the blue sideways triangle. Price breaks out at the blue circle so the bulls throw confetti but the joy was very short lived as stocks rolled back over to the downside. Price reentered the tip of the triangle and collapsed out the bottom.

The vertical sides of the blue triangle are 20 to 26 handles. If price continues breaking down from the 2181 level, the SPX will target 2155-2161.

Fed Chair Yellen speaks tomorrow at 10 AM EST so markets will probably churn into her words of wisdom. Stocks are in a low volume environment. Asia trading volume is down big-time. Everyone is waiting on Yellen to tell global traders how to trade. It is a sickening world the central bankers have created. Anything can happen tomorrow morning once Yellen opens her pie hole.

For sideways symmetrical triangle patterns like the blue triangle above, it is very common to see a false breakout, or breakdown, which typically occurs about two-thirds of the way through the triangle. Price jumped up and out at the blue circle and it was a false breakout. Price then returns to the triangle and collapses out the bottom. This is common behavior for the pattern. Conversely, if the initial move was a breakdown, many times price will reverse quickly and recover back inside the triangle and then breakout to the upside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart 33 Days Without a Move of More Than 1%

The SPX has gone 33 days without a move of more than +/- 1%. Today would be 34 days. At 2175, a 1% move is 21 or 22 points. The last time a move over 1% occurred was on 7/8/16 which was to the upside (blue circle). This type of tight behavior has not been seen in two years. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 5-Minute Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

The 5-minute chart shows an interesting sideways triangle in play in blue. Price is teasing the upper rail now for a potential breakout. The vertical side is 20 handles tall. If price breaks out at 2183-2185, price will seek 2203-2205. If price breaks down from 2178-2180, the SPX will target 2158-2160.

Fed Chair Yellen speaks on Friday but the triangle cannot wait that long for her words. Price is going to breakout or breakdown from the triangle today. Note yesterday's choppy sideways move. The SPX moved through 2.5% of its entire point range yesterday and ended the day flat. That is choppy sideways action and very erratic and unstable market behavior. Stocks are in a low volume and low volatility environment.

The pink diamond pattern is in also in play and is looking for a breakout or breakdown from this 2178-2185 area. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart Diamond Pattern

The 2-hour chart shows the red rising wedge, overbot stochatics and negative divergence that create the spankdown last week (red arrow). The blue arrow was a last spurt higher on weak Chinese data since the PBOC will print more money to goose stocks higher. The brown circle is the recovery last week due to the big oil rally (oil was up +10% last week), higher copper and lower volatility (record lows).

The blue lines show a diamond pattern in play now. The 2183-2184 level serves as a pivot point area. Diamond patterns are not good predictors of direction only that a commitment to direction will occur. The indicators are stumbling sideways not hinting at a firm up or down outcome. Considering the low CPCE put/cal ratio, the bears have to be given the advantage going forward so the resolution would be expected to break lower going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 8/22/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 8/22/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For the S&P 500 in history, the all-time record high prints last Monday, 8/15/16, at 2193.81. The all-time closing high is 2190.15 on 8/15/16. The SPX has taken out the May 2015 highs after this stock market top held in place for 15 months. The bulls, that continue to remain complacent due to non-stop central banker money-printing, are correct in their cheer leading the stock market higher since new record highs keep printing. The all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2016, the intraday high for this year is the 2193.81. The closing high for this year is at 2190.15. The intraday low for this year is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low thus far this year is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 was 1867.61 on 8/25/15. Obviously, a failure under the 1810-1868 zone would lead to a catastrophic path ahead for stocks but this concern is not even on the map as equities print new all-time record highs near SPX 2200.

Keystone’s 80/20 rule says 8’s lead to 2’s so the close above 2180 at 2190 hints that 2220-plus is on the table. The SPX begins August at 2174. The SPX is up 130 points, +6.4%, above the starting year number at 2044. The central bankers saved the markets in February and the coordinated global money printing creates the multi-month rally. After the Brexit vote in late June, the BOE promises stimulus as far as the eye can see creating the spurt higher in stocks over the last month. The BOJ, PBOC and ECB also plan to keep on printing easy money to make the wealthy wealthier. Weak China data kept the stock market elevated last week since the PBOC will provide more easy money. The central bankers are the market.

For the new trading week ahead, Monday, 8/22/16, with the S&P 500 beginning at the important 2183-2184 pivot level, the bulls need to push above 2194 to create an upside acceleration that guarantees 2200+. Upside price action can be assessed at the 2188, 2190 and then 2194 levels.

For the bears, the SPX will need to fall under 2175 to accelerate the downside. The 2175-2178 confluence provides support for price. If it fails, 2169 is next then 2164 where the critical 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart is at 2164. This level determines who is the winner in the near-term; currently it is the bulls. A move through 2176-2184 is sideways action to begin the week. 

The CPCE put/call ratio remains at uber lows verifying market complacency and a near-term market top at hand. The top can occur any minute any day forward and since the CPCE already printed one other low a few days earlier, the stock market top is likely at hand right now, say early this week. The drop in the S&P 500 would be expected to be from 40 to 200 handles over the next month; a 40 to 100-handle drop is easily doable.

Fed Chair Yellen provides a speech at noon time Friday, 8/26/16, from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, where all the world's who's-who in economics, business and central banks meet in a rural atmosphere. Markets are going to likely move significantly on Friday afternoon, either way up in a rally as Yellen flaps her dovish wings as usual, or, stocks may collapse if Yellen expresses hawkishness (that a rate hike will occur in September). She will likely hint that one hike will occur before the end of the year (December) to try an keep that thinking alive. This may reinforce the status quo.

Since Yellen will be spewing on Friday, there is a nice window open for bears early in the week and into mid-week. Typically, when there is a Fed meeting or event, stocks rally but the Fed events are usually a Tuesday or Wednesday rather than all the way at the end of the week on a Friday afternoon. Thus, the bears have to be given a slight advantage going into the new week of trading. The move down in stocks may be fast and sharp. Take the low put/call ratio serious.

Looking at the near-term picture the strongest price support/resistance is 2194, 2190, 2188, 2186, 2183-2184, 2174-2178, 2169, 2164, 2156-2157, 2152, 2135 and 2131. The bulls do not have a care in the world unless the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2164 fails; if this level fails, stocks will begin dropping in earnest. As long as price is above 2156, the bulls are in control of the stock market for the hours and days ahead. The test at 2164 which will likely occur this week will be an epic and important test and bounce or die decision for the stock market.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2194 (8/15/16 All-Time Intraday High: 2193.81) (8/15/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2193.81)

2193.81 Previous Week’s High

2190 (8/15/16 All-Time Closing High: 2190.15) (8/15/16 Closing High for 2016: 2190.15)

2188

2186

2185

2185.00 Friday HOD

2184

2183.87 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2183

2182

2178

2175.80 (20-day MA)

2175.13 Friday LOD

2175

2174

2173.60 August Begins Here

2173

2170

2169

2168.50 Previous Week’s Low

2165

2164

2163.70 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

2160

2157

2156

2152

2135 (5/20/15 Intraday High: 2134.72)

2134.64 (50-day MA)

2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)

2131 (5/21/15 Closing High: 2130.82)

2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)

2129

2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)

2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)

2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)

2123

2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)

2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)

2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)

2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)

2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)

2114

2113

2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2111.04)

2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)

2109

2108

2106.91 (20-week MA)

2105.14 (100-day MA)

2105

2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)

2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)

2102 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2102.40)

2100

2099

2097

2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)

2093

2092

2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)

2089

2086

2084

2083

2081

2080

2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)

2077

2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)

2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)

2074

2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)

2072

2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)

2069

2067.51 (10-month MA)

2067

2065

2064

2063

2061

2058.70 (20-month MA)

2057

2056.21 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)

2053.60 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

2053

2052

2050.34 (200-day MA)

2050

2049.56 (100-week MA)

2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)

2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)

2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here

2042

2041.98 (50-week MA)

2040

2038

2034

2032

2030

2023

2022

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2017

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

1998

1997

1995

1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1990.68 (150-week MA)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1987

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)

1980

1979

1978

1977

1973

1970

1969

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1961

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1948

1943

1942

1937

1936

1931

1928

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1920

1917

1914

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884.18 (200-week MA)

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1873

1872

1870

1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)

1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)

1865

1862

1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)

1856.31 (50-month MA)

1855

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1841

1840

1839

1835

1831

1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)

1828

1827

1824

1820

1816

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)

1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)

1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1808

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1803

1801

1800

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1796

CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Signals Near-Term Market Top At Hand

The drop in the CPCE put/call ratio continues to get your attention. The CPCE chart was posted a couple days ago and now price retreats again firmly verifying the complacency and lack of fear in markets. Traders believe that the central bankers can pump stocks higher forever. What happens when everyone is on one side of the boat?

The low 0.54 number is near the low 0.51 number the other day and is the lowest since the weeks of 5/23/16, 7/27/15 and 6/18/15. So this level of complacency in markets is a multi-month low. Investors are not only complacent but extremely fearless and relaxed about the stock market. Traders believe that central bankers will always goose equities so they imitate Alfred E. Neuman and proclaim, "What? Me Worry?"

The May 2015 top led to a drop in the SPX from 2120 to 1985 over one-month's time; a drop of 135 handles. The July 2015 top is a drop from 2115 to 1867 over one-month's time, a whopping 248 handles. The June 2015 top results in a drop from 2127 to 2044; a drop of 83 points over three-weeks time. The top that is at hand now will probably result in a move lower in the SPX of 40 to 100 handles and perhaps a heck of a lot more. Since the put/call has not printed an elevated reading (indicating a stock market bottom) since June, the market selloff may be quite substantive even a couple-hundred S&P 500 handles lower would not be surprising. It all depends on how low the central bankers will permit stocks to sell off.

The CPC put/call ratio is low at 0.7-ish, yesterday at 0.86, also verifying complacency. The low sub-12 VIX obviously verifies the complacency and lack of fear that markets will ever sell off. The SPX is ready to roll over. Thus, if you are not married to a particular long position, ditch it, and it would be prudent to bring on index shorts. Stocks should sell off until the CPCE put/call rises and prints inside the green circle. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross Fibonacci Retracements

There is lots going on in the 60-minute spaghetti chart above especially useful and of interest to technicians. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain low indicating ongoing market complacency but the central bankers keep finding a way to create buoyancy. The weak Chinese data last Friday leads to speculation that the PBOC will print more money to goose stocks higher and the last couple days are all about the Fed that is perceived dovishly willing to provide easy money accomodation as far as the eye can see (which creates a lift in stocks).

There is also likely buoyancy in the stock market attributable to Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls over Donald Trump in the race for the Whitehouse. Clinton is in Wall Street's back pocket. She receives exorbitant speaking fees from the large money center banks for showing up at token luncheons. Wall Street knows Clinton will perform their bidding but are a bit unsure about the orange-headed showman Trump. So Clinton's lead is friendly to stocks.

The red lines show the rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence across all indicators which creates the neggie d spank down (red arrow). The blue lines show the Fibonacci retracement levels after the rally from early August at 2150 to Monday at 2193. Price was hung up early yesterday at the 50% Fib at 2171, but the bears were successful in piercing below only for an hour or two of trading, then price recovered above. Thus, the 50% Fib is holding; if it fails again price will likely seek the 62% Fib retracement at 2166 (which is also at the pink gap and the lower standard deviation line).

The pink lines show the gap up in early August from 2166 to 2168. The S&P 500 remains on an island above 2168. If price comes down to 2168 and gaps down to 2166 and lower that will be an island reversal pattern. Price may simply choose to stumble lower and fill that gap at 2166-2168. Price violated the lower standard deviation line so the middle band was on the table and price comes up to kiss the middle band at 2182-2183. The SPX will bounce or die from here either moving downwards towards the confluence level at 2165-2170, or, running higher targeting the overhead gap at 2186-2190.

The recovery move occurs with slivers of positive divergence in the indicators and from the oversold stochastics, RSI and money flow. The full moon peaked for this month about five hours ago and stocks are typically bullish, about 65% of the time, moving through the full moon. There is near-term long and strong juice in the indicators so a few hours of higher highs may be on tap. S&P futures are down -2. Looking at the 2-hour, the indicators are similar so there may be 1 to 4 hours of bouyancy in stocks hovering around the 2182-2183 level and sneaking a bit higher, however, considering the complacency in the put/calls that have not yet extracted their pound of flesh, the downside targets for the SPX hold more weight currently.

Bulls are not worried as long as they remain above the 200 EMA at 2161. If 2161 fails, the bears are in firm control and stocks will begin dropping in earnest. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:41 AM EST Friday Morning, 8/19/16: The SPX moves higher on Thursday as the hourly charts hint and price seeks the 2186-2190 upside gap closing at 2187. The CPCE collapses to 0.54 the uber low put/call ratios continue. The complacency signals a near-term market top.

CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Signals Near-Term Market Top At Hand

The drop in the CPCE put/call ratio gets your attention. It is not surprising given the level of euphoria and complacency in markets. Traders cheer the weak Chinese data last Friday morning since the PBOC will provide more easy money. The central bankers are the market.

The Brexit was the best thing to happen for the bulls. Instead of doom, Britain's vote to exit the European Union (EU) resulted in BOE Governor Carney standing before the nation promising to print money as far as the eye can see. Not only that, but the BOE is reducing banking regulations so it is easier to lend money. The ECB and BOJ plan more easy money policies. These people are very sick. The Fed balked at hiking rates before the Brexit vote citing it as an excuse. Then after the Brexit was approved, the Fed basically chucks the idea of a rate hike this year creating more stock market joy. The chatter of more PBOC money printing over the weekend and early this morning is the cherry on top of the eight-year central banker sundae. However, too many sweets are not good for you. Perhaps the markets will develop a tummy-ache.

The low 0.51 number is the lowest since the weeks of 5/23/16, 7/27/15 and 6/18/15. So this level of complacency in markets is a multi-month low. Investors are not only complacent but extremely fearless and relaxed about the stock market. Traders believe that central bankers will always goose equities so they imitate Alfred E. Neuman and proclaim, "What? Me Worry?"

The May 2015 top led to a drop in the SPX from 2120 to 1985 over one-month's time; a drop of 135 handles. The July 2015 top is a drop from 2115 to 1867 over one-month's time, a whopping 248 handles. The June 2015 top results in a drop from 2127 to 2044; a drop of 83 points over three-weeks time. The top that is at hand now will probably result in a move lower in the SPX of 40 to 100 handles and perhaps a heck of a lot more.

When the boat is fully loaded to one side and the party is in full swing, what do you think will happen? The CPC put/call ratio is low at 0.7-ish also verifying complacency. The tricky part is the top call on the SPX which can happen at anytime in the hours or couple-few days ahead. The near-term top and slip-slide lower for stocks is likely on tap sooner rather than later; perhaps beginning in the morning. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX (S&P 500) Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 8/15/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 8/15/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For the S&P 500 in history, the all-time record high prints last Thursday, 8/11/16, at 2188.45. The all-time closing high is 2185.79 on 8/11/16. The SPX has taken out the May 2015 highs after this stock market top held in place for 15 months. The bulls, that continue to remain complacent due to non-stop central banker money-printing, are correct in their cheer leading the stock market higher since new record highs are printing. The all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2016, the intraday high for this year is the 2188.45; the closing high for this year is at 2185.79. The intraday low for this year is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low thus far this year is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 was 1867.61 on 8/25/15. Obviously, a failure under the 1810-1868 zone would lead to a catastrophic path ahead for stocks but this concern is not even on the map currently as equities print new all-time record highs near SPX 2200.

Keystone’s 80/20 rule says 8’s lead to 2’s so the close above 2180 hints that 2220-plus is on the table. The SPX begins August at 2174. The SPX is 144 points, +7.1%, above the starting year number at 2044. The central bankers saved the markets in February and the coordinated global money printing creates the multi-month rally. After the Brexit vote in late June, the BOE promises stimulus as far as the eye can see creating the spurt higher in stocks over the last month. The BOJ, PBOC and ECB also plan to keep on printing easy money to make the wealthy wealthier. The central bankers are the market.

For today, Monday, 8/15/16, with the S&P 500 beginning at 2184, the bulls need two points, to punch up through 2186, and price will accelerate higher into the 2190’s taking out the 2188 all-time high. S&P futures are up +3 three hours before the opening bell to begin the new week of trading so there may be lots of price activity around 2186 to begin the day and determine if up, or a retreat lower, is on the table.

The bears need to push below 2183 support and price will be testing 2179 in a flash. If 2179 fails, 2174-2175 will quickly occur. This would be a critical juncture since it leads to 2172 as a last chance support level for bulls. If 2172 fails, price will quickly seek the 2164-2169 range.

Below there is the 2156-2157 support and then an air pocket to 2135. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2156 is a key short term signal for stocks and if this fails, serious trouble begins. As long as the SPX stays above 2156, the bulls will not be worried. Markets will significantly deteriorate if 2156 fails. A move through 2180-2185 is sideways action to begin the week. This range is very tight so a direction, either above 2185, or below 2180, will likely be chosen.

Looking at the near-term picture the strongest price support/resistance is 2188, 2186, 2183, 2174-2175, 2169, 2164, 2156-2157, 2152, 2135 and 2131. The bulls do not have a care in the world unless the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2156 fails; if 2156 level fails, stocks will begin dropping in earnest. As long as price is above 2156, the bulls are in clover with their feet up on the desk smoking expensive cigars and dabbing the ashes in the bear’s faces.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2188 (8/11/16 All-Time Intraday High: 2188.45) (8/11/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2188.45)

2188.45 Previous Week’s High

2186.28 Friday HOD

2186 (8/11/16 All-Time Closing High: 2185.79) (8/11/16 Closing High for 2016: 2185.79)

2185

2184.05 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2184

2183

2182

2181

2179.42 Friday LOD

2179

2178

2175

2174

2173.60 August Begins Here

2173

2172.00 Previous Week’s Low

2171.93 (20-day MA)

2170

2169

2165

2164

2160

2157

2156

2155.77 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

2152

2135 (5/20/15 Intraday High: 2134.72)

2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)

2131 (5/21/15 Closing High: 2130.82)

2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)

2129

2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)

2127.32 (50-day MA)

2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)

2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)

2123

2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)

2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)

2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)

2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)

2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)

2114

2113

2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2111.04)

2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)

2109

2108

2105

2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)

2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)

2102 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2102.40)

2101.35 (20-week MA)

2100

2099

2098.22 (100-day MA)

2097

2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)

2093

2092

2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)

2089

2086

2084

2083

2081

2080

2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)

2077

2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)

2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)

2074

2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)

2072

2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)

2069

2067.53 (10-month MA)

2067

2065

2064

2063

2061

2058.71 (20-month MA)

2057

2056.23 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)

2053

2052

2050

2048.10 (200-day MA)

2047.83 (100-week MA)

2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)

2044.49 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)

2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here

2042

2040

2038

2036.73 (50-week MA)

2034

2032

2030

2023

2022

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2017

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

1998

1997

1995

1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1987.39 (150-week MA)

1987

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)

1980

1979

1978

1977

1973

1970

1969

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1961

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1948

1943

1942

1937

1936

1931

1928

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1920

1917

1914

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882

1880.43 (200-week MA)

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1873

1872

1870

1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)

1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)

1865

1862

1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)

1856.31 (50-month MA)

1855

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1841

1840

1839

1835

1831

1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)

1828

1827

1824

1820

1816

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)

1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)

1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1808

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1803

1801

1800

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1796