ARUN Aruba Networks Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Island Reversal

ARUN Aruba Networks party just ran out of punch. Weekly and daily charts show overbot conditions, rising wedges and negative divergence; there is no where to go but down. The large gap at 27-29 will require filling. Also of interest is the island top now created after the February gap up. For the island reversal pattern to play out, price will drift lower and then collapse under 27 in a heartbeat creating the island reversal, then price will come up to fill the 27-29 gap from the underside as time moves along into summer.

What a phenomenal run from two bucks to 35, truly impressive. But now is the time to take the money and run. Scenario's going forward all involve lower prices; 29, 27, 26, 24, 21. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Industrials Descending Triangle Today 3-31-11

Dow Industrials showing a descending triangle today that collapsed in the final minutes. As the price failed thru the baseline at 12335, look at how the volume exploded as traders thru shares overboard ahead of tomorrows jobs report.  Price did the obligatory back kiss of the base line, and then rolled over to close at the low, saved by the bell.

Typcially the drop out of a descending triangle targets the same distance as the rise, in this case, 12335 to the 12380 top at 10:30 AM EST yields a distance of 45 points, thus, the target price once the baseline failed is 12335-45=12290. The Dow closed at 12320 so price needs to drop another 30 points after the open to satisfy the descending triangle. We'll find out tomorrow morning. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

JPM J P Morgan Chase Daily Chart

JPM chart is a main financial player so it tracks the XLF closely. JPM received the red line negative divergence spank down in February. Price continues to try and hang on to the lower trend line of the upward channel now. This 45.50 to 46.00 area represents a confluence zone of price, MA's and the lower trend line so a move above or below here carries big clout moving forward. The bears would be favored since the 20 MA has now crossed under the 50 MA.

The H&S shown with green lines shows a head at 48.0, neck at 43.5, for a 4.5 difference, thus, 43.5-4.5=39 target which is also horizontal support. There are many gaps for price to fill on the way lower but looking above instead, a juicy gap at 47.5 exists. Price should close the gap above since its only a buck and a half higher, if it does, this may provide a nice short entry, at that point all the loose ends will be taken care of above, and the door will open for lower prices. Sideways to sideways down moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

MSFT Microsoft Weekly Chart

Mr. Softy peaked a year ago when the negative divergence blue lines spanked it down. From there, price has moved sideways along the 23.5 to 28.5 range. Price now sits on top of the 200 MA at 25.4 trying to hold this support. Note how price and the MA's are all lining out sideways moving forward. Note a possible descending triangle that may form over the next year with the 23-ish level as the base. This triangle, as well as the H&S now in play would both ultimately target 15. Simply sideways to sideways down moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

INTC Intel Daily Chart

INTC Intel showing the dead money move between 17.5 and 22 for the last two years. Chart is rolling over from Fall 2010 to now. The best Intel bulls can hope for is price sliding across the 200 MA, meandering above and below 20. The indicaotrs are favorable to sideways action in the weeks and months ahead. In the near term, a gap was just filled at 20.50.

Watch for a potential two-leg bear flag with first leg 22.25 to 19.75, a difference of 2.50, and now the sideways to sideways up consolidation zone, then say, the second leg starts at 20.50, so that will target 18, or that key area of support at 17.5-18.0. Thus sideways to sideways down moving forward into summer time, 19-ish in the near term, then a move across the 18-21 area as the year continues along. Probably continued dead money. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SDP Ultrashort Utilities ETF Weekly Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence

SDP ultrashort utilities ETF maintains its oversold, falling wedge and positive divergence set up forecasting a nice pop coming, which means utilities will fall. This is significant since utilities typically lead the broad markets, hence, this chart forecasts trouble for the indexes as the days and weeks play out. Looks like all up for SDP from here on out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

CAT Caterpillar Weekly Chart Overbot Negative Divergence

CAT Caterpillar weekly chart shows the matching and higher high now occurring, just as the RSI and money flow indicators demanded from their long and strong behavior in February. Now that price is higher than February's high, a look at the indicators shows negative divergence across the board, so everything is lined up for price to move down. Plenty of gap fills to target underneath from here as well as sturdy horizontal support at 104, 93 and 84.

The strength has been impressive but the chart says sideways to sideways down moving forward. Rubber is poised to roll over now as well, and considering that CAT equipment uses a lot of rubber tires, this behavior would be consistent with the sideways to sideways down projection moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

KOL Coal ETF Weekly Chart Overbot Negative Divergence

KOL coal ETF shows the negative divergence, rising wedge and overbot conditions to start the year which resulted in the smack down. Upon closer inspection, however, you can see that the RSI was long and strong in the Fall, and this behavior dictates that price needs to come up for a matching or higher high again. Price now has satisfied the RSI's demands.

Now assessing the yellow lines, negative divergence exists across all indicators, so this is a top in price not the start of any extended upside. The Japan nuke and energy worries placed a bid under coal, KOL from 45 to 51, or a 13% premium built into the coal price now. Strong volume candle corresponds to the 45-49 range so price may be more comfortable in this zone. Price at 51 is a good candidate as a head of a potential H&S pattern moving forward. Sideways to sideways down moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

BRK/B Berkshire Hathaway Weekly Chart Negative Divergence

Surprise news with top man Sokol at Berkshire resigning tonight. Chart is set up with negative divergence and was receiving a spank down from 87 already. Interesting chart since technicians may tout a rising wedge (blue lines), or an ascending triangle (pink lines), but, the problem is they each have opposite outcomes. The vote is for the rising wedge since the negative divergence is in place. An ascending triangle breakout would be occurring with long and strong indicators, not negatively diverged ones.

This sudden news is interesting since a drop in the price will fail the lower trend line forecasting further problems ahead. A hanging man candlestick printed at the close creating an omen for tonights news. Some dip buyers may rush in on any pull back so you can not rule out a pop to test the top rail a last time at 87.5, but, in general weakness should continue moving foward and a near term test of 82 and 79 would be expected soon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

MUB Municipal Bond Fund Daily Chart 60 Minutes TV Show

MUB Muni Bond Fund receiving lots of attention as muni-friendly analysts take turns slapping Meredith Whitney's 60 Minutes projections. When that story aired on tv October-December 2010, the muni's sold off strongly. This was all easily forecasted ahead of time with TA by the dramatic negative divergence red lines. Then after the Fall 2010 60 Minutes show, the price bottomed in January 2011, and received a strong positive divergence bounce. A Fibonacci retracement range to 38% to 50% is receiving all the attention now, between 99.0 and 100.3. The indicators are weak so an exploration of the 99 gap fill would be in order but overall, moving forward, the movement will probably excite neither side of the muni debate.

Like the treasuries, notes and bonds these days, MUB exhibits a sideways feel moving forward. A range of 97.5 to 101.5, and more specifically 99.0 to 100.3, would be in order moving thru the weeks ahead. A move towards the lower end in the nearer time frame, 99 and 98, perhaps in concert with announcements of State and Muni funding issues, would be anticipated, giving Meredith Whitney's view a slight edge, but, both sides will be able to claim some victory as the chart slides sideways across this year. The flat 200 MA at 101 and change should provide a ceiling thru the summer time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Bullish Again

Keybot the Quant flipped back to the bullish side at today's open.

http://www.keybotthequant.blogspot.com

Keystone's Nightcap 3-30-11

The markets never cease to amaze.  In two sessions, the indexes went from the edge of the abyss with all systems go for the downside at Tuesday’s open, to bull euphoria at Wednesday’s close.  This reversal was accomplished by goosing the utilities, semi’s and retail on Tuesday morning, then the financials today.  Copper remains sick.  The doctor may be ill but the bullish patients are continuing with one heck of a party.

The two day buoyancy in the indexes should not be taken as an all clear signal for the upside.  Volatility is low again and the CPC put/call readings show no fear at all.  Traders trip over each other afraid of missing any dip-buying opportunity.

SPX:VIX comfortably above the 68 level posting a 75.00 at the close, so the bulls are in control.  Bears will not growl until this drops under 68.  SPXA150R strongly bearish now since price almost hit 90, which says traders are throwing money at stocks with little care on what they buy.  These indicators all confirm the bullish fun, but, at the same time, they are contrary in nature, and forecast trouble ahead.

Credit the POMO pumps for saving the broad markets yesterday.  What will the markets be without it?

Some of the buying is end-of-month window dressing.  Some buying also in the energy sector which boosts the overall market.  The energy sector buying in part due to the standard end of month ISM data play where the professionals buy energy the last few days of the month and sell energy on the ISM new in a couple days.

Markets idling ahead of the Trichet decision, now on a seven day countdown.  Trichet promised a pony (rate hike), so he better deliver a pony.  Oddly enough, the message actually got more hawkish since news today referenced a ‘series of hikes’.  Holy smokes, in for a penny, in for a pound.  Look for media leaks that hint at Trichet backing away from the rate hike, if so, euro will fall=dollar up=equities down=commodities down.

If, however, Trichet goes thru with the hike, reminiscent of his mistake in July 2008 when he unintentionally called a top in the commodities market, the euro should maintain its current buoyancy which in turn will provide support for US equities, at least for a little while.  This ECB soap opera is one reason for the anemic volume.  Some traders simply prefer to wait for the rate decision.  Today’s move up in the indexes occurred on vapor volume.

Copper remains weak telling you in the weeks ahead that everything else will become sick.  But the wine flows like water now, no one wants the party to end.  Reversals in financials, retail or semi’s would dampen the markets but barring that, the indexes should float along with upward buoyancy to finish the week.

Stay on guard for a China rate hike, that will be an immediate game changer, or resolution one way or the other with Trichet's pony.

XNG Natty Gas Index Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

XNG Natty Gas Index showing topping behavior. All the things you do not want to see if long; overbot conditions, rising wedge and negative divergence. This is the daily chart and the weekly chart shows negative divergence across the board as well. In addition, ADX shows how strong the trend was in XNG thru early March but over the last three weeks, the strong trend is gone. Pull out your trumpet and play 'Taps', this one is taking its last breath.

Possilbe H&S pattern may form moving forward, pink lines, so this needs to be watched for a right shoulder after it does the intial sell off from the head. If the head is 700, neck line is 640, that is 60 difference, so target for a potential H&S is 580, critical horizontal support. Perhaps that will be the summer target but one step at a time and in the days ahead, XNG price needs to receive a spank down first. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

TICK Tick Daily Chart

TICK tick daily chart shows time to short with the red circles and time to go long with the blue circles. Same methodology that a smart day trader employs where shorts are entered on the +1000 ticks or longs are entered on the -1000 ticks to give the trades a little extra bang for the buck. Thus, we are about two weeks into this rally which was signaled by the last blue circle on the lower right of the chart.

Now tick is up over 800, typically a +1000 tick shows that the bullishness is too rampant and some smacking down is in order, hence, the projection would be for the indexes to form another top in here, in this +800 to +1000 range, perhaps the wildly bullish area of +1200, and then the indexes will reverse in quick order. Should be any day moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

TRIN Arms Index Daily Chart

TRIN Arms Index shows a 1.05 close for yesterday, on the bearish side, despite the run up in the indexes. The high red shadow on the red candlestick shows the bearish action early in the day yesterday but then a move lower towards the bull-bear standoff one number to close the day. Odd behavior since the TRIN would have been expected to be lower for a move like yesterday. Now the TRIN numbers are tightening into a sideways symmetrical triangle so any day there will be a big resolution one way or the other.

The MA's are lined up in favor of the market bears with the 20 MA above the 50 MA above the 200 MA, but, price is the ultimate leader, so bears need a TRIN above 1.2 so the price and all MA's are lined up for an up move in the TRIN, above one, which is bearish. Of course, if the TRIN prints sub 1.0 numbers moving forward the market bulls are running. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

MCP Molycorp Weekly Chart Rare Earths Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

MCP Molycorp chart is a darling for the rare earth momo crowd. The bulls keep pumping it but it is currently setting up with negative divergence. Using the closing prints above, the chart is ready to go down, but, some leeway must be given to respect the 61.80 HOD in early January. A print above this level, say 62+, looks to be the ideal short entry, should it occur.

The 45-55 range from late 2010 was retested last week but the lower volume shows less interest in the ticker. A bullish stock would have blown the previous volume away, MCP did not. Looks like price is placing a top right now with the lucky bullish winners since Fall 2010 looking for Joe Sucka to get all excited about the rare earths and run in to take their shares. Projection would be top now at 59.65-62.50, then down moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S/R 3-30-11

·         1350

·         1344

·         1341

·         1338

·         1332-1333

·         1331

·         1329

·         1325-1326

·         1318-1323; Now 1319.44

·         1315-1316

·         1312

·         1311

·         1307-1308

·         1305-1306

·         1303

·         1298-1301

·         1294-1295

·         1270

·         1261-1263

·         1258.5-1259.0

·         1257-1258

·         1252

·         1243-1244

·         1235

Keystone's Nightcap 3-29-11

The day started with the market bears firmly in control with many key sectors bearish.  The SPX moved down after the open, and the SPX:VIX ratio stayed under 68.  It was all systems go for the bears but barely did a bear head poke up and out of the den before it was chopped off.

The POMO pumps placed a bid under utilities and semi’s this morning.  The semi strength rippled thru technology as a whole and sent the Nasdaq higher.  Market bulls gained further ground when HD announced a buy-back program.  It makes no difference that when you check HD two years from now you will find that the buy-backs are negligible; the buy-back is a gimmick to simply give stock price a pop.  But the buoyancy in the retail sector was enough to give the market bulls some legs.

The SPX:VIX ratio abandoned its negative 68 posture at 10:14 AM EST, that was the tell that the bulls did not want to give up the ball just yet.  The bears will have their day when the ratio drops back under 68.

Financials and copper remain bearish.  Broad markets have limited upside unless financials participate.  Perhaps targeted use of the POMO pumps tomorrow towards the banks will remedy this problem.

Thus, utes, semi’s and retail are bullish and financials and copper are bearish, and volatility has to make up its mind up at the open tomorrow. 

Volume is anemic with the NYA not even doing 75% of the volume it should, today.  In addition, with all that bullish euphoria today, the SPX could not get above the previous days HOD at 1319.74; stopping 30 cents short at the close.  Strange unstable markets indeed.  SPX sits inside the 1318-1323 resistance zone now so simply watch which side it comes out of for hints on direction.

Many traders jumping on the EOM ISM trade today, where you buy energy the last few days of the month and sell on the ISM release the first day of the month, it has been working over 80% of the time over the last few months.  ERX up 3%, XLE up over a percent.  This shows that the market bulls continue along undaunted.  CPC put/call prints a 0.75 today; there is simply no fear among the bulls.  Even traders waxing poetic about buying protection today are not bothering to do so, strong bullish sentiment continues along.

The utilities, UTIL, are comfortably above the 402 level this week, now over 409, so the bulls remain in control overall.

Market bulls are merrily moving along, this morning only a minor stutter step in the action.  Barring any trouble in the overnight session, or a China rate hike, or other overnight event, the market bulls should continue along tomorrow and sort out this 1318-1323 support/resistance area.

If the market bears do come to play tomorrow, this will manifest as a pop in volatility at the open as well as the retail sector weakening.  If the retail sector remains strong, however, and either financials or copper experience buoyancy, then the bulls rule.

Continue to watch the SPX:VIX ratio 68 level.  Above 68 and the bulls rule; below 68 and bears growl.

XEU Euro Index Daily Chart Two-Leg Bull Pattern Negative Divergence Gap Fills

XEU Euro Index will receive lots of attention in the coming days. Portugal received a downgrade today and the big question is will Trichet balk at producing a rate hike or will his bluster cause him to raise? The euro is trailing off the last few days but the hesitancy in moving down more tells you that many traders believe Trichet may raise. The two-leg bull flag shows a move from 129 to 138, or 9 gain, then after the consolidation, the second leg started up from 134, thus, 134+9=143 target. Price printed a smidge above 142, enough to now create negative divergence compared to the November high, but I will leave it up to you to decide if the euro needs to see 143-ish, or if you consider the bull flag pattern to be satisfied.

Lots of gaps down below that will require filling with interestingly, one tiny gap above at 142. So a spurt to close any open business above would open a solid door to the downside. The ADX shows how strong the price trend was when the euro climbed in the Oct-Nov period, but this recent near three month rally is not strong trend-wise and negative divergence is in place now. The chart says Trichet balks, I guess we'll find out any day now. Projection would be a lower euro moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX:VIX Drama Continues

The markets have more lives than a cat.  Stick-saved again today, at least so far, the day is young.  SPX:VIX ratio punched back above 68 at 10:14 AM EST so that nullified any large sell off in the indexes.

If the ratio moves back under 68, however, the bears will be singing again.  Above 68, and the bulls are enjoying the party.

This action is particularly interesting considering that key sectors such as semi's, financials, retail, copper and volatility are all in the bear camp.

The ratio has to come back down thru 68 for the markets to experience a large selling event.  It may happen over the next hour, or it may occur tomorrow, or the next day, or a few days from now.  When the ratio loses 68, however, the indexes will sell off large, so it is an important tool to watch right now.

SPX:VIX print right now is 69.19 so the bulls are in control, comfortably above 68, at least for the moment.  You know what to watch.

SPX:VIX Ratio Remains Under 68

At least so far today.  The SPX:VIX ratio popped above 68 at the open but went under 68 at 9:33 AM EST, and remains there now.  Thus, expect a large market sell off today.  The only thing that can stop the sell off is for the ratio to get back above 68.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant, a statistical arbitrage algorithm, flipped to the short side after the open, 9:31 AM EST, at SPX 1309.

http://www.keybotthequant.blogspot.com

Keystone's Nightcap 3-28-11

The SPX was breaking down into a selling event late day but was stick-saved by the closing bell.  Sectors such as retail, copper, semi’s and the higher volatility all returned to the bear camp today.  The SPX closed at the low so tomorrow’s open is critical.  Any move down after the open would open up a scenario to at least explore 1300 on the downside moving forward.

A move up in the SPX at the open tomorrow would signal that the bulls are actually cats, considering all the lives they are given, as well as always landing on their feet.

GT dumped 6% today and CTB was down 2%.  Rubber is an important economic indicator since tires are required for automobiles and heavy machinery.  Rubber forecasts strength, or lack of strength, in the housing and construction markets, miners, emerging markets and automobile markets.  Looks like two flat tires today.

Dr. Copper developed sickness directly from the opening bell this morning.  Perhaps he will make the entire broad market sick.

If you were watching the SPX:VIX ratio, you saw it collapse at the final minute mark before the bell, from 69.1 to 67.4.  With the ratio under 68 now, expect a large sell off in the indexes tomorrow, typically the Dow should sell off a couple hundred points or more.  The one caveat to place is that you have to watch the open.  If the ratio jumps back above 68 after the open, all bets are off, you have to make sure the ratio is under 68 and stays under 68.  If the ratio is under 68 after the open then significant broad market selling should be expected.

Another feather in the market bears cap is the SPXA150R dropping from above 85 to below 85 today.  This reinforces the idea of the broad markets selling off tomorrow as well.

The utilities, UTIL, closed at 406 four points above the critical 402 level for this week.  If broad market selling takes place after the open, watch the utilities.  If UTIL drops under 402, that will signal that the selling will be much larger than anyone anticipates, so the short side will be having fun.  If UTIL stays above 402, then the bulls remain in the game trying to wrestle back control.

CPC put/call closed the day at 0.82.  Traders are not worried at all these days, their only worry is missing a dip-buying opportunity, or perhaps missing lunch.  This contrarian indicator says there is too much complacency, even though the VIX jumped today, and that long traders may receive a slap to wake them up.

Housing news has not been good Friday, or today, and tomorrow Case-Shiller is on deck at 9 AM EST.  Those gloomy Gus’s may cast a pall over the open.

A market pivot area is 10 AM EST tomorrow when Consumer Confidence is released.

No one talks about China lately.  A China rate hike is coming, probably any day now, and everyone is sleeping on the job.  PBOC big surprise would be a 50 bip rate hike instead of 25 bips.  Commodities and equities are expected to sell off.  China rate hike is probably imminent.

With Portugal’s lingering woes, as well as the thinking that Trichet may have to back pedal from his rate hike bluster, the euro should pull back now.  Euro down=dollar index up=equities down=commodities down.

The SPX:VIX ratio move below 68 is significant.  Expect a huge broad market selling event tomorrow, on the order of a 1.5% to 2.5% drop in the indexes--unless this ratio moves back above 68.

AAPL Apple Daily Chart

AAPL Apple daily chart showing current trend of lower lows and lower highs after the February top. 352-353 price area is where Steve Jobs delivered the iPad 2 Release 3/2/11 so this level takes on special significance moving forward. Interestingly, price is not higher after the release so perhaps the happy projections are hype? The red line negative divergence announced the top ahead of time and we watched the price roll over from there.

This 353 area is a test of the downward-sloping upper trend line, the iPad2 release day price, and horizontal resistance, not to mention a spank down from here maintains the lower lows and lower highs, so watch this area closely. If the 20 MA moves under the 50 MA, the downward channel will remain in place and price will continue lower. The ramifications of a lower Apple price are serious and will manifest with weaker indexes, weaker tech, weaker Nasdaq and weaker economy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

NFLX Netflix Weekly Chart Negative Divergence Potential M Top

NFLX Netflix chart shows the overwhelming strength in price the last couple years. Green lines in 2009 and 2010 show the long and strong trend. Last summer price got too far ahead of itself as the RSI, stochastics and money flow kicked off negative divergence to pull price back. The histogram wanted to see a higher price again, however, so up she went into the February doji top. RSI and money flow then displayed negative divergence and wanted price to fall but histogram and stochastics wanted to see price come back up once again. Well, price did, and that is where we are now after all these many months.

The difference now is that as price prints slightly above the February highs, this locks in negative divergence across the board, all indicators now, so she is finally ready to begin rolling over. This would also place an M Top as the sketch to the side shows. A summer time target would be the 180-190 range that corresponds to the large volume candle from Thanksgiving. A drop of 50 in price represents a 20% drop from the current levels. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

TLT 20+ Year Bond Fund ETF Daily Chart Inverted H&S

TLT ETF daily chart showing an inverted H&S. The pink lines show a head at 88, neckline at 92, for a difference of 4, thus, 92+4=96 as a target. Typically when these H&S patterns break the neck line, as this one did above 92, price will come back for a back kiss, which it is doing now, then price will bounce upwards again to target the 96 destination. Interestingly, 96 is also the 200 MA level, and also a juicy gap that was left behind from the last day of November.

The upward channel shows higher highs and higher lows trending. Treasury yields in general should move sideways for the next couple years and the weekly charts back this up. The excessive inflation that is coming along with higher yields is probably not coming as fast as everyone thinks.

If TLT works up to the 96 level, that is price up, which means yield down; the opposite direction that most traders favor now. Possible asset relationship setting up is treasury price up and yields down=US equities down=dollar index up=euro down=dollar/yen up=commodities down. Watch the neckline 92 behavior over the next couple days to confirm if the inverted H&S is in play, or not. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

FXE Euro Daily Chart Negative Divergence

FXE euro daily chart showing negative divergence spanking price down. The rally ran from 129 to 138 which is a 9 move, then went into a sideways consolidation zone to set up a potential two-leg bull flag. Starting up for the second leg from 134 would yield 143 as a target but price only reached 142. That may be close enough for government work but a small gap was left behind up above four days ago (tiny green line). Thus, after a sell off, price may come back up to fill that gap at 141.2 and sneak up a bit further to create an M top and satisfy the two-leg bull flag, all at the same time.

Make no mistake, however, the euro has had its fun, negative divergence on weekly charts as well so the path of least resistance is down. The recent buoyancy was a result of Trichet's hawkish rate hike talk. In the coming days he has to lay his cards on the table and this chart would conjecture that he backs away from a hike, therefore the euro falls, dollar index rises, US equites fall.

After a few days and the reaction of price at the 20 MA at 139.4 is known, as well as if the green lower trend line is tested or not, will provide the answer about going back up for a potential M Top. Overall chart will continue with sideways to sideways down bias over coming weeks. Watch to see if RSI and/or stochastics fall below the 50% levels indicating more selling ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber Daily Chart

GT Goodyear daily chart showing the negative divergence causing the selling. Overbot conditions and rising wedges also pointed to weakness ahead. Price moving down to test the lower trend line now in the 14.5 area. Sideways to sideways down bias ahead.

Rubber is a key indicator of economic strength since it is required not only for automobiles but also heavy equipment which in turn forecasts the true health of commodities, miners and emerging markets. Weakness in rubber will mean weakness in broad markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC CBOE Options Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

CPC put/call ratio daily chart shows a lack of fear in the markets. The VIX dropped large over the last week as well showing complacency. The low 0.60 CPC in January indicated far too much bullishness so the markets responded with a sell off in February. Typically the CPC needs to move up and post a closing number above 1.2 to truly show that traders are worried. When the 1.2+ number occurs, that clears the way for a rally in the broad markets.

With 0.75 readings stil occurring and a 0.84 reading last Friday, traders are not worried, thus, since this is a contrarian indicator, broad market weakness should be expected moving forward until some fear comes into the markets with a CPC above 1.2. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX:VIX Ratio Chart

SPX:VIX ratio chart will usher in big selling when it falls back below 68. That can happen tomorrow, or some other day coming soon. When the ratio does lose the 68 level, that same day the Dow will drop 200 or 300 points. Thus, if the ratio stays at 73 and heads higher, then the broad markets will be moving upwards. If the ratio falls below 73 moving towards 68, then the broad markets will have a flat feel. If the ratio drops below 68, the broad markets will be selling off, and a large sell off should be expected on the day the ratio loses 68. Watch it like a hawk. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Daily Chart Key Levels Dictate Broad Market Direction

UTIL utities chart will lead the broad markets moving forward. The broad market pull back recently was easily forecasted from the negative divergence in the charts. When the indexes rolled over in February the utes did not and in fact took another couple weeks to finally flush downwards. For longer term extended selling to come into the broad markets, the utilities should lead the way down. Since the utes did not, then it was expected for the broad markets to come back up, which they did.

If UTIL stays above 402, the purple line, the broad markets will move sideways or sideways up this week. If UTIL falls below 402 then the broad markets will be selling off. If the red line is lost at 394, the broad markets will go into free fall. The blue line comes into play on Friday. The utes must stay above 406 by Friday's close, otherwise, the broad markets will start the next week, 4/4/11, in trouble.

The bears are receiving help from the 20 MA crossing down thru the 50 MA. One gap above and two gaps below. Note the rising wedge over the last two weeks which is bearish. The projected tip of the rising wedge, the 50 MA and the gap above form a confluence at 411-412 and would be an ideal near term ceilling. Should the utes turn down and lead the broad markets lower this time, then expect extended market selling that will be weeks rather than days. The 402 level is critical this week, above and market bulls are happy, below and market bears are happy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S/R 3-28-11

SPX battled to get up thru that overhead resistance at 1318-1319 on Friday, but failed, then went down to test support at 1310-1311 and bounced, settling at 1314.  Thus, the intial test tomorrow is 1315 resistance and 1312 support.  If the SPX moves up thru 1319 the buying will accelerate.  If the SPX moves down thru 1310, the selling will accelerate.  Formidable resistance overhead at 1318-1326.

·        1350

·        1344

·        1341

·        1338

·        1332-1333

·        1331

·        1329

·        1325-1326

·        1318-1323; HOD Friday 1319.18

·        1315-1316

Start the week at 1313.80

·        1312

·        1311

LOD Friday 1310.15

·        1307-1308

·        1305-1306

·        1303

·        1298-1301

·        1294-1295

·        1270

·        1261-1263

·        1258.5-1259.0

·        1257-1258

·        1252

·        1243-1244

·        1235

Keystone's SPX S/R Detailed Numbers

The 1315 to 1326 area is formidable overhead resistance.

·         1360

·         1350

·         1344; 1344.07

·         1343; 1343.01

·         1341; 1341.50; 1340.43; 1340.38

·         1339; 1338.91;

·         1338; 1337.61; 1338.12

·         1336; 1336.32

·         1334; 1334.37

·         1332-1333; 1332.32; 1332.96; 1332.09; 1332.28

·         1331; 1330.79; 1330.43; 1331.00; 1330.97; 1331.08; 1330.73

·         1329; 1329.15; 1329.51; 1328.73; 1329.38; 1328.64

·         1328; 1328.01; 1327.68

·         1327; 1326.90; 1327.22

·         1325-1326; 1325.76; 1324.57; 1324.87; 1324.54; 1324.61; 1325.74

·         1322-1323; 1322.85; 1322.48; 1321.87; 1322.78; 1321.61; 1322.72; 1321.82; 1323.21

·         1320-1321; 1320.88; 1319.88; 1320.61; 1320.55; 1321.15; 1320.02; 1319.92

·         1318-1319; 1318.76; 1319.05; 1318.66; 1318.13; 1317.91; 1319.18

·         1315-1316; August 2008; 1316.03; 1314.89; 1316.08; 1315.44; 1315.72

·         1314; 1314.19; 1313.80

·         1312; 1311.85; 1311.74; 1312.33; 1312.37; 1312.59; 1312.27; 1311.80

·         1311; 1310.87; 1311.00; 1310.91; 1311.05; 1311.34

·         1310; 1310.13; 1309.66; 1310.15

·         1309; 1308.86; 1308.60

·         1307-1308; 1307.59; 1307.61; 1307.10; 1307.01; 1307.40; 1307.09; 1307.34; 1308.44; 1306.86; 1308.35

·         1305-1306; 1305.91; 1306.10; 1305.47; 1306.14; 1306.33

·         1304; 1304.03; 1303.99; 1304.28

·         1303; 1302.67; 1302.62; 1302.77; 1302.58

·         1302; 1301.67

·         1301; 1301.19; 1300.58; 1300.51; 1300.61

·         1299-1300; 1299.63; 1299.54; 1299.55; 1299.35

·         1298; 1297.51; 1298.38; 1298.29; 1297.54; 1297.74

·         1296; 1296.06; 1296.39

·         1294-1295; 1295.02; 1294.83; 1294.26; 1294.21; 1295.11; 1293.77

·         1293; 1293.24; 1293.22; 1293.43; 1292.70

·         1292; 1291.93; 1291.97; 1291.99; 1292.19

·         1291; 1291.21; 1290.84; 1291.26; 1291.18

·         1290; 1290.16

·         1288-1289; 1289.14; 1288.46; 1288.88

·         1286-1287; 1286.70; 1286.87; 1285.78; 1285.96; 1286.12; 1287.17; 1286.37

·         1284; 1283.76; 1284.05

·         1282; 1282.07; 1282.47; 1281.87; 1281.65

·         1281; 1281.07; 1280.91

·         1279; 1279.46; 1278.88; 1279.21

·         1278; 1278.17; 1277.63

·         1276- 1277; 1276.56; 1276.50; 1276.34; 1276.18; 1276.71

·         1274-1275; 1274.12; 1274.48; 1274.98; 1275.10; 1273.72

·         1273; 1272.95; 1273.37 LT S/R

·         1271-1272; 1271.50; 1271.87

·         1270; 1269.75; 1270.43; 1270.84; 1269.62; 1270.20

·         1267

·         1265; 1265.36

·         1262-1263; 1262.66; 1262.60; 1262.18; 1261.70

·         1261; 1261.12; 1261.61

·         1260; 1259.90; 1259.78

·         1258.5-1259.0; 1258.84; 1258.51; 1259.10; 1258.59; 1258.78; 1258.43

·         1257-1258; 1257.54; 1257.88; (Start 2011 at 1257.64); 1256.77; 1257.53; 1257.62; 1256.88

·         1255; 1254.60; 1254.94

·         1251.70 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk); 1251.48

·         1249-1250; 1250.20; 1249.43; 1249.05

·         1247; 1246.59; 1246.73; 1247.08

·         1243-1244; 1243.75; 1244.25; 1242.87; 1243.91

·         1242; 1241.59; 1241.58; 1241.84

·         1240.40; 1240.46; 1240.34

·         1237

·         1235; 1235.23; 1235.05 (12/7/10 large volume day)