Keystone's Cyclical Intermediate to Long-Term (IT to LT) Market Signals
SPX Daily 150 MA Slope: If the 150-day MA (moving average) is sloping positively, then the broad indexes are in a Cyclical Bull Market. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, a Cyclical Bear Market. The current signal remains in place until a change occurs.
(watch to see if the 150-day MA flattens out and turns down; the last multi-week cyclical bear market was August 2011 through January 2012; current cyclical bull market is January 2012 through October 2013--21 months)
11/21/12 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1391 SPX 1384
11/20/12 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1384 SPX 1384
11/19/12 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1387 SPX 1384
11/14/12 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1384 SPX 1385
11/13/12 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1375 SPX 1385
11/7/12 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1395 SPX 1385
11/2/12 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1414 SPX 1385
11/1/12 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1420 SPX 1385
10/31/12 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1419 SPX 1385
10/26/12 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1412 SPX 1385
6/5/11 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1319 SPX 1288
6/4/12 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1319 SPX 1278
1/10/12 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1234 SPX 1292
8/4/11 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1310 SPX 1200
8/3/11 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1311 SPX 1256
8/2/11 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1311 SPX 1254
12/2/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1125 SPX 1222
11/30/10 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1125 SPX 1180
11/29/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1125 SPX 1185
11/15/10 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1125 SPX 1198
9/8/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1116 SPX 1099
9/7/10 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1116/SPX 1092
9/2/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1116/SPX 1090
8/9/10 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1122/SPX 1128
8/6/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1122/SPX 1122
8/5/10 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1122/SPX 1125
8/4/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1122/SPX 1127
7/28/10 = Cyclical Bear Market; 1122/SPX 1106
7/26/10 = Cyclical Bull Market; 1115/SPX 1114
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SPX Weekly MACD Cross: Use the crosses in the MACD lines to forecast a Cyclical Bull Market versus a Cyclical Bear Market.
11/15/13 =
11/8/13 =
11/1/13 = (bull cross may be similar to the 1-3 week late July market top)
10/25/13 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins 10/25/13
10/18/13 = Cyclical Bear Market
8/16/13 = Cyclical Bear Market Begins 8/15/13
8/9/13 = Cyclical Bull Market Ends
7/19/13 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins 7/15/13
7/12/13 = Cyclical Bear Market Ends
6/14/13 = Cyclical Bear Market Begins 6/10/13
6/10/13 = Cyclical Bull Market Ends
12/31/12 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins
12/31/12 = Cyclical Bear Market Ends
10/22/12 = Cyclical Bear Market Begins
10/22/12 = Cyclical Bull Market Ends
7/23/12 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins
7/23/12 = Cyclical Bear Market Ends
4/30/12 = Cyclical Bear Market Begins
4/30/12 = Cyclical Bull Market Ends
10/17/11 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins
10/17/11 = Cyclical Bear Market Ends; 7-Month Bear Market Ends
3/7/11 = Cyclical Bear Market Begins 3/7/11
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SPX Weekly MACD Zero Line: If the MACD line is above zero the broad markets are in a Cyclical Bull and if the MACD line is below the zero line the markets are in a Cyclical Bear.
11/15/13 =
11/8/13 =
11/1/13 = (above the zero line for 21 months)
10/25/13 = Cyclical Bull Market
January 2012 thru October 2013 = Cyclical Bull Market
12/30/11 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins 12/27/11
December 2011 = Cyclical Bear Market Ends; 5-Month Bear Market Ends
July 2011 = Cyclical Bear Market Begins; One-Year Rally Ends
August 2010 = Cyclical Bull Market; QE2 Saves the Equities Markets; Rally Begins
May 2010 = Cyclical Bear Market; Markets are in Big Trouble and Collapsing
May 2009 = Cyclical Bull Market; Confirms QE1 Rally is Underway
December 2008 = Cyclical Bear Market; Market Top Occurs
April 2003 = Cyclical Bull Market; Iraq War Rally Begins
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NYA Weekly 40 MA Cross: If the NYA is above the 40-week MA (moving average), the indexes are in a Cyclical Bull market. If the NYA is under the 40-week MA, a Cyclical Bear market.
11/15/13 =
11/8/13 =
11/1/13 = (watch 9338; the NYA is at 10054; 700 points above)
10/25/13 = Cyclical Bull Market
11/23/12 thru October 2013 = Cyclical Bull Market
11/16/12 = Cyclical Bear Market
6/29/12 thru 11/9/12 = Cyclical Bull Market
6/22/12 = Cyclical Bear Market
6/15/12 = Cyclical Bull Market
5/18/12 thru 6/8/12 = Cyclical Bear Market
1/20/12 thru 5/11/12 = Cyclical Bull Market
7/29/11 thru 1/13/12 = Cyclical Bear Market
7/1/11 thru 7/22/11 = Cyclical Bull Market
6/17/11 thru 6/24/11 = Cyclical Bear Market
9/17/10 thru 6/10/11 = Cyclical Bull Market; QE2 saves the markets
8/13/10 thru 9/10/10 = Cyclical Bear Market
8/6/10 = Cyclical Bull Market
7/30/10 = Cyclical Bear Market
7/23/10 = Cyclical Bear Market
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UPS Weekly 20 and 50 MA Cross: The shipping industry is a major forecaster of economic strength; if package shipments are strong, so is the economy and markets. If shipping drops off the economy and markets will weaken. If the UPS 20-week moving average is above the 50-week MA, the markets are in a Cyclical Bull. If the 20-week MA falls under the 50-week MA, this indicates that the markets have fallen into a Cyclical Bear since demand for shipping is collapsing.
11/15/13 =
11/8/13 =
11/1/13 = (cross likely not on tap for 3 or 4 months)
10/25/13 = Cyclical Bull Market
February 2013 thru October 2013 = Cyclical Bull Market
November 2012 thru February 2013 = Cyclical Bear Market
February 2012 thru October 2012 = Cyclical Bull Market
August 2011 thru January 2012 = Cyclical Bear Market
July 2009 thru August 2011 = Cyclical Bull Market
February 2008 thru July 2009 = Cyclical Bear Market
thru February 2008 = Cyclical Bull Market
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SPX Monthly 12 MA Cross: If SPX price is above the 12-month MA, the markets are in a Cyclical Bull. If the SPX is under the 12-month MA, a Cyclical Bear. Also watch the 10-month MA for early warning signs and hints. The 12-month MA represents a cliff-edge for markets where a crash and sustainable intermediate and long-term downside damage may occur. The current signal remains in place until a change occurs with the month-end print.
11/29/13 =
10/31/13 = (watch the cliff edge at 1585; SPX is 1760; about 175 points above)
1/31/12 thru 9/30/13 = Cyclical Bull Market for 21 Months
8/31/11 thru 12/31/11 = Cyclical Bear Market
9/30/10 thru 7/31/11 = Cyclical Bull Market (QE2)
8/31/10 = Cyclical Bear Market
7/31/10 = Cyclical Bull Market
6/30/10 = Cyclical Bear Market
June 2009 thru May 2010 = Cyclical Bull Market (QE1)
November 2007 thru June 2009 = Cyclical Bear Market
March 2003 thru October 2007 = Cyclical Bull Market
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SPX Monthly MACD Cross: Use the crosses in the MACD lines to forecast a Cyclical Bull Market versus a Cyclical Bear Market.
11/29/13 =
10/31/13 = (cross may occur over next 1 to 3 months)
January 2012 thru October 2013 = Cyclical Bull Market for 21 Months
August 2011 thru December 2011 = Cyclical Bear Market
July 2009 thru July 2011 = Cyclical Bull Market Begins (QE1 in 2009 and QE2 in 2010)
October 2007 thru June 2009 = Cyclical Bear Market Ends the 4 1/2-Year Rally
March 2003 thru October 2007 = Cyclical Bull Market; Iraq War Rally begins
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