tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post8787672152079982250..comments2023-10-29T06:32:19.009-04:00Comments on The Keystone Speculator™: Keystone's Morning Wake-Up and Midday Market Action 5/20/13Keystone Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-5561887129809285552013-05-21T07:25:37.615-04:002013-05-21T07:25:37.615-04:00There will be plenty of fits and starts so plenty ...There will be plenty of fits and starts so plenty of opportunities in the miner area moving forward. Gold and silver retreating again today which may create opportunities today (Tuesday).Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-76174542453306650482013-05-21T07:23:30.555-04:002013-05-21T07:23:30.555-04:00Interesting stuff. The spot on the sun most active...Interesting stuff. The spot on the sun most active is turning this towards the earth as you mention and Marlowe had mentioned previously. So the next few days will be interesting. The X flares are the big ones, M's are not as strong and typically will not do much. The X's are key.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-8707547521434606132013-05-21T02:44:43.435-04:002013-05-21T02:44:43.435-04:00oopsie daisy! ...M1 class solar explosion during 2...oopsie daisy! ...M1 class solar explosion during 20 May - will hit the Earth the next day (21 May)<br />http://www.spaceweather.com/<br /><br />from the link : "A new sunspot is approaching. For the past two days it has been crackling with flares and hurling material over the sun's northeast limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed these glowing magnetic loops marking the spot of an M1-class explosion during the early hours of May 20th. The sunspot is on the sun's farside now, but solar rotation is carrying it in our direction. It a day or so it will emerge into view over the sun's eastern limb. Then, forecasters can evaluate its magnetic field and potential for additional flares. Stay tuned." <br /><br />Lol, I've told you last week KS that God listen to my prays :). <br />:)<br />The best fact is that the point that generated that solar explosion (flare generator) is for the moment on the other side of the Sun, but as Sun also rotates around it's own center in a 27 Earth-days cycle, the scientists will evaluate it's potential only when the Sun "will turn it's face" toward us :). <br />So, for now, there are signs of a M-type explosion, but surprises are not excluded. <br /><br /><br />V. <br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-23073981739972287472013-05-21T01:05:28.647-04:002013-05-21T01:05:28.647-04:00http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/05/20/the-feds-m...http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/05/20/the-feds-monetary-base-update/<br /><br />an interesting view of Tony Caldaro regarding the use of elliot waves and fibo projections related to the expansion of FED's monetary base. <br />I have to note that Keystone, Caldaro and Pretzel are my tier top 3 info sources all around the web - Pretzel for his techniques and for the intuitional sense of market on short, medium and long term, Caldaro for his masterful use of elliot and fibo techniques and KS for his great comprehensive, integrated, organic-relational, use of relations between specific technical indicators, commodities and stocks indexes. 3 great masterful teachers! :)<br /><br />In this case (the link posted here) it's clear that the idea is a speculation and should not be taken and considered "ad litteram" - as it is, doubtless. But it's still a very interesting projective view.<br /><br />Cheers!<br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-48040742117656627212013-05-21T00:28:58.576-04:002013-05-21T00:28:58.576-04:00you're not dumb under no circumstances and you...you're not dumb under no circumstances and you (and all) know that.<br />look at that: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-could-downgrade-us-debt-in-2013-report-2013-05-20?link=MW_home_latest_news<br /><br />that's due for the period ending July to ending August 2013....<br />:)<br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-87067237029012932382013-05-20T19:48:18.448-04:002013-05-20T19:48:18.448-04:00biggest mistakes today were the miner, I have no i...biggest mistakes today were the miner, I have no idea what I was waiting for, maybe not enough coffee, the second leg down after the opening drop and rise was the signal. I fell asleep and missed it. Sometimes psychological abuse is more powerful than anything and the miners have screwed with the brain as of late no doubt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-12297397811414342232013-05-20T16:17:36.079-04:002013-05-20T16:17:36.079-04:00Thanks, KS.Thanks, KS.Charles Hugh Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12991955853189070212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-70048422246573257952013-05-20T16:06:09.570-04:002013-05-20T16:06:09.570-04:00Keybot is always the smart one, Keystone the dumb ...Keybot is always the smart one, Keystone the dumb one. LOL Too bad Keybot was not in a 2x ETF for this move; it was not due to the whipsaws which is required to reduce risk but when the flip to the downside occurs anytime forward, Keybot will flip into SDS. VIX and JJC will be important tomorrow as the two key gauges for market direction; VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.76 are the bull-bear levels. Volatility is creating market bullishness at 13.03 and JJC is creating bearishness at 41.68. Tomorrow may be a key market day and volatility and copper will tell the story. All Tuesday's have been up; is everyone banking on that and perhaps tomorrow the law of averages returns?Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-29474578569067169672013-05-20T15:58:57.363-04:002013-05-20T15:58:57.363-04:00Gold and silver COT charts are pointing to some co...Gold and silver COT charts are pointing to some continued upside ahead. Miners are beaten down and most positively diverged. Everyone is chasing markets higher, especially dividend stocks. Poking around with metals, miners, and say, shippers, may be a possible path for the weeks and months forward.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-2339162646080160352013-05-20T15:49:07.156-04:002013-05-20T15:49:07.156-04:00At one point earlier today, the SPX was over 100 p...At one point earlier today, the SPX was over 100 points higher from when Keybot last went long. Congratulations, KS. I remember there was quite a lot of abuse earlier in the year because of the frequent whipsaws. But that's quite a return for those who've used Keybot as one of their guides.Weavernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-6668519626712695722013-05-20T15:37:16.286-04:002013-05-20T15:37:16.286-04:00Anyone else watching gold take off--+$34 as I type...Anyone else watching gold take off--+$34 as I type. Woah. Is this "the bottom" or short-covering....? I was expecting a test of $1320, maybe we won't get it. Any opinions/TA views would be greatly appreciated.Charles Hugh Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12991955853189070212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-17879074407865481012013-05-20T15:35:01.078-04:002013-05-20T15:35:01.078-04:00Thank you, KS, :)
V.Thank you, KS, :)<br /><br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-85559922084711047282013-05-20T15:24:18.805-04:002013-05-20T15:24:18.805-04:00V, a good thing to watch will be the CPC put/call....V, a good thing to watch will be the CPC put/call. It moves higher when markets sell off; when CPC moves above 1.20+ that will be a good tool to identify a market bottom where scale-ins for longs could occur.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-65558840836128284512013-05-20T15:19:21.210-04:002013-05-20T15:19:21.210-04:00''When dollar/yen rises, we will have to w...''When dollar/yen rises, we will have to watch to see if equities continue to rise.''<br /><br />very interesting, yes, indeed... <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-54648362464663681512013-05-20T15:07:15.907-04:002013-05-20T15:07:15.907-04:00V, that comment was in reference to the BOJ debase...V, that comment was in reference to the BOJ debasement from November to now, and they hit the afterburners in February and then in the first week of April as well. So that is where we sit now with dollar/yen at 102.50-ish after rising from well under 100 (higher dollar/yen = weaker yen). What was meant, that even though Japan is in a deflationary funk for the last two decades, that may seem like nirvana as compared to the monster problems they may have created in their bond market as well as global markets as a result of their new actions. If the BOJ actions send global currency, equity and bond markets into disarray, they may long for the slow steady days of deflation. Japan may be the one that causes the gears to seize. When dollar/yen rises, we will have to watch to see if equities continue to rise.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-20629944196366315262013-05-20T15:05:09.751-04:002013-05-20T15:05:09.751-04:00After such a long up-trend I'll load some shor...After such a long up-trend I'll load some shorts in the 1680-1705 area to be reached in 5-15 trading days / stop loss= 1715 / profit marking points = a. 40% @ 1590-1610 / b. 60% @ 1536 - 1545/ loading 100% longs @ 1555->1536 in 3 equal volumes (of 33.33%...of 0.01% I'll take a beer ! LOL! :D) <br /><br />After that ... another boring up-trend until 1800-1815, so be prepared, ok? :D? <br /><br />Cheers, <br />V. <br /><br />p.s. I thought to note those thoughts here, maybe there are persons that might feel helped by those thoughts. :)<br />Learn to share! :) That's how someone's getting rich! By sharing! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-61819752230516657012013-05-20T13:10:41.544-04:002013-05-20T13:10:41.544-04:00''Sometimes the grass always seem greener ...''Sometimes the grass always seem greener on the other side, unitl you get there, perhaps BOJ is thinking that things may have been better off left alone?''<br /><br />They have to let the situation as it is for a while... they devalued the yen with -23 or 25% since November until now ...actually they actively devalued the yen months go, but verbally they pounded the table since october-november 2012 about a yen devaluation and the market reacted. So, BOJ executed it's plan in a somewhat cheaper way :). <br />Arnie was right, a correction is needed and will be in spx 500 (from 1680-1710, that area +/- 5 points) . Now the question is if it will be the soft version (-5-6%) or the "hard" (LOL) version (-10-12%).... I, as Arnie, pick the -10% correction version (down to 1510-1535 area) , but who knows? <br />:)<br />V. <br /><br />p.s. I don't think BOJ will let the yen just "alone" ... it would evaluate back :) and BOJ doesn't want that for sure. But they have to take a break(2-3 months minimum), not one single mature economy (as Japan's is) can take without some negative structural side effects a depreciation of -25% in 6 months on it's own currency.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-60546956870526357292013-05-20T12:57:26.453-04:002013-05-20T12:57:26.453-04:00Yep V, that is what caused the drop in the dollar/...Yep V, that is what caused the drop in the dollar/yen overnight from 103+ to 102.50-ish. Will be interesting to see if dollar/yen continues higher to the 105+ targets, or not. Sometimes the grass always seem greener on the other side, unitl you get there, perhaps BOJ is thinking that things may have been better off left alone? It should be an interesting couple months ahead.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-59231515345985778102013-05-20T12:54:07.537-04:002013-05-20T12:54:07.537-04:00So obvious that will all sell off in August like 2...So obvious that will all sell off in August like 2 years ago. Until then sideways and up and don moves of 0-50 on the Dow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-81951226755283432252013-05-20T12:46:23.926-04:002013-05-20T12:46:23.926-04:00http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-up-as-officia...http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-up-as-official-says-correction-largely-done-2013-05-20<br /><br />a Japanese official talked up the yen today... <br />anyway, considering that they've done their job there in Japan, I'd look forward for 105.45-107 for a resistance level and if usd/jpy keeps it's correlation with spx 500 that would signify a coming correction (~10%) in spx 500 from 1680-1710 levels the next 2-3 weeks down to 1510-1530 levels. <br /><br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-63068302468927278232013-05-20T12:38:23.520-04:002013-05-20T12:38:23.520-04:00should be, ......if not, the yen affects are dissi...should be, ......if not, the yen affects are dissipating, ...Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-34526860303947260162013-05-20T12:36:51.023-04:002013-05-20T12:36:51.023-04:00A daily killer for bears is the Fed's POMO pum...A daily killer for bears is the Fed's POMO pumps. Interestingly, the stronger yen does not weaken markets. A weak yen will boost markets, a strong yen does not create weakness. Markets continue to pull the good news tidbits from all the drama and use them as bull fuel ignoring any weak data or news. Another thing that may be happening is that the yen has lost much of its influence now, its affect as a market driver petering out. The way to watch that is if the dollar/yen moves higher again, back up over 103 and more, see if the broad indexes are moving up as well. If not, the yen affects are disappointing, if so then the scenario about traders only following good news applies. These are markets no one has ever seen.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-7690211060260544472013-05-20T12:32:56.001-04:002013-05-20T12:32:56.001-04:00Keybot the Quant trading algorithm identifies not ...Keybot the Quant trading algorithm identifies not only the current market trend but also what sector, or sectors, are most in control of the direction of the broad markets at any point in time. Volatility is the key element right now affecting markets, next week it may be utilities, or semi's, or copper, or a myriad of others, or combination of several. Right now it is volatility and volatility alone. The algo is tracking all this and also calculates the bull-bear levels for each continuously, this is why the VIX level was jumping around today. Thus, volatility is the key nowadays, and VIX 13.12 is the line in the sand. So the answer is that it is simply a cog in a big wheel of formulas running in the background. Sit back and relax. If long, you are okay, bulls will remain on easy street, simply watch Keybot. If VIX moves back above 13.12 the algo will start to prepare to flip short.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-31222007654499967752013-05-20T12:02:53.721-04:002013-05-20T12:02:53.721-04:00Every morning the VIX pops up and the trading bots...Every morning the VIX pops up and the trading bots hesitate, seeking a trend. VIX retreats and the bots start buying.Charles Hugh Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12991955853189070212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-80828708192755912832013-05-20T11:43:44.249-04:002013-05-20T11:43:44.249-04:00after spx 500 hts 1675-1679 and Evans speaks , the...after spx 500 hts 1675-1679 and Evans speaks , there are some chances of reversal to 1645-1650 until tomorrow at noon (EST time).<br />it's only a possibility, not something certain. <br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com