tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post7249547661249711930..comments2023-10-29T06:32:19.009-04:00Comments on The Keystone Speculator™: Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 5/15/13; DE; PPI; Industrial ProductionKeystone Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-40474231257096000532013-05-15T09:00:37.661-04:002013-05-15T09:00:37.661-04:00Yep, 13.20 for VIX. Despite the run-up in the inde...Yep, 13.20 for VIX. Despite the run-up in the indexes, the markets continue to balance on a tightrope. Even though the VIX may move above 13.20 it will likely only trigger the main signal for Keybot the Quant to go short, other programming rules have to fall in place and one of those is dropping under the low prints. Since yesterday was a big up day, for the algorithm to go short the VIX must rise above 13.20 and SPX would need to drop under 1634, 16 points or so lower. Next few days will be interesting.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-64971163810108645952013-05-15T08:57:32.628-04:002013-05-15T08:57:32.628-04:00Definitely, the shorts are skittish now with no on...Definitely, the shorts are skittish now with no one wanting to venture on the downside. The commodities remain an interesting metric.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-70267611237507713852013-05-15T08:46:04.149-04:002013-05-15T08:46:04.149-04:00Yes, it's true, here is an inflexion area.
VI...Yes, it's true, here is an inflexion area. <br />VIX is a funny, good lookin' indicator ...yesterday it rose and also SPX rose ... last time I've seen that in 2007 or 2008 , I don't recall too well ;) ... VIX pushing up along with SPX pushing up is a hint for further trouble for me. <br /><br />But today , tommorow or on Friday (maybe Monday or Tuesday, next week?) VIX will be smacked in the head to 10.75-11.20 levels (it has developed a bullish wedge and only the last point, E, the fifth, is missing around 11-11.50 to complete the technical formation, but an overthrown to 9.50-10.50 is not impossible). I'm sorry for those guys that got into UVXY (leveraged VIX instrument) and other toxic instruments long time ago... I know one such guy on another blog. He entered sometime in January 2013 on UVXY ... Oh my! :) <br />I don't have the hot hand, KS, I'm just an apprentice! Maybe in 5 or 10 years, yes, I will certainly better than now... I have a lot to learn, every day, every hour, without any time lost! <br />Here on your site I've learned more than 50% of what I know until now. <br /><br />Thank you , KS!<br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-50596546076223316812013-05-15T08:37:03.484-04:002013-05-15T08:37:03.484-04:00VIX 13.20? Are you sure about that number KS?VIX 13.20? Are you sure about that number KS?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-77965823383057152212013-05-15T08:35:56.037-04:002013-05-15T08:35:56.037-04:00On that note, shorters must be hurting as well hav...On that note, shorters must be hurting as well having to increase margin accounts. Ever flip that logic around and realize the short powder kegs may be very empty. Alot of money has been lost in squeezes. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-12840631019896016982013-05-15T08:25:03.447-04:002013-05-15T08:25:03.447-04:00You have been calling for continued up V so you ha...You have been calling for continued up V so you have the hot hand. Margin debt are at levels like 2007. The markets are likely at an inflection here. VIX 13.20 tells the story.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-58375622422252008502013-05-15T08:03:59.700-04:002013-05-15T08:03:59.700-04:00...I've found one little picture (credits go t......I've found one little picture (credits go to Mr. Lance Roberts):<br />http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/index.html?guest/2013/LR-130514-Fig-7.gif<br /><br />Margin Debt is so high now that you need NASA to watch it on sub-orbital level using military satellites :) ... when something bad will appear, all those folks will rumble to get out and cover the debt at the same moment creating those delicious moments of pure panic :) .... <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-61880440955826823472013-05-15T07:35:15.219-04:002013-05-15T07:35:15.219-04:00To find out more about what that FED trumpet wante...To find out more about what that FED trumpet wanted to express by that WSJ article about tappering QE, watch tommorow Rosengren speech and Saturday's Bernanke's speech. <br />Today the market wil go sideways to digest yesterday's fast movement(yesterday's candlestick on daily chart was a Marubozo white candle stick, so today we might get some little spinning top), tommorow the market will be a little shaked by the Rosengren's words (and another bunch of bears will get - unfortunately! - in the market) and on Friday being the OPEX close day , guess what? No Marubozo sell signal, no spinning top, no nothing, no bear around! <br />All slashed and doomed by some radioactive green up candlestick :). <br />Next week nobody will be tempted to short again - and that would be a certain problem to normal market mechanics. <br />:)<br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com