tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post5154849656107906675..comments2023-10-29T06:32:19.009-04:00Comments on The Keystone Speculator™: Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 7/17/13; Chairman Bernanke House TestimonyKeystone Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-29742310111405966012013-07-18T02:53:43.080-04:002013-07-18T02:53:43.080-04:00When retailers will be shaken and will fear shorti...When retailers will be shaken and will fear shorting this market, that's when the market will drop! For now, it still has to rise! <br />Retailers don't feel fear and they short right now - due to a potential double-top. <br /><br />They will be squeezed.<br />I feel sorry for them , but they will be squeezed. <br />I follow GS guy's advice to short only in confirmed downtrends. <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-57976832672796491822013-07-18T00:42:05.187-04:002013-07-18T00:42:05.187-04:00don't get too complacent on the downside.
che...don't get too complacent on the downside. <br />check Friday's POMO funds (!), check the fact that it's an OPEX day, consider the fact that at Friday's moment the market may already have integrated Ben's reporting idea in front of House&Senate. <br /><br />For me it's amazing that it goes only sideways for now, with 2 big Ben shows in a consecutive manner it may have been getting to much lower levels! <br />What we are seeing now it's a sideways evolution before a capitulation strong up move into OPEX (last bears crushed, top finally put in the market).<br />Don't get too complacent on shorting (or on longs)! <br /><br />What we have now doesn't looks like a top! <br />We need a "second head" for strong negative div. on RSI 5,14 with higher highs in market, but lower lows in RSI readings. Also check MACD evolution. Also MFI. <br />A final peak is still missing.<br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-36294792132926004552013-07-17T16:06:45.256-04:002013-07-17T16:06:45.256-04:00Rally feels like its winding down and losing steam...Rally feels like its winding down and losing steam. I hope we get come more concrete confirmation on that feeling tomorrow.<br /><br />ArgonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-43891441047022593102013-07-17T15:06:52.684-04:002013-07-17T15:06:52.684-04:00Interesting day with a sideways stumble. VIX is un...Interesting day with a sideways stumble. VIX is under 14.19 so the bulls have to receive the nod.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-37172169452117889332013-07-17T14:51:27.195-04:002013-07-17T14:51:27.195-04:00well, it is what it is folks.
the wave behaves lik...well, it is what it is folks.<br />the wave behaves like a 4 already. <br />so forget all the BS stuff with 1770's and all that.... <br />wave 3 maybe ended at 1685.<br />if bulls want to prove that wave 3 didn't ended they should take away 1686.10 TODAY, NOW!<br />target revised to 1690-1710 area for the whole up move from 1560! <br />So those f*cking bulls should move today above 1686.10 if they want to see 1770's in 2-3 weeks!<br /><br />GS guyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-80088410581841138222013-07-17T14:41:11.802-04:002013-07-17T14:41:11.802-04:00I wouldn't short here. Bounce or die track re...I wouldn't short here. Bounce or die track record for the bears is awful. Even with SPX at this record level, shorts might get crushed again. Wouldn't be a surprise, considering the bulls have victimized the bears nonstop this year. <br /><br />It'll never go higher than this, earnings suck, structural unemployment is high, Sequestration is looming, never go higher than the current level...famous last words. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-45459350507604908782013-07-17T12:46:49.581-04:002013-07-17T12:46:49.581-04:0062 % chances :) ...
if market jumps over 1686.10 ...62 % chances :) ... <br />if market jumps over 1686.10 the chances go to 100%.<br /><br />GS guyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-32604092582514284062013-07-17T12:24:44.995-04:002013-07-17T12:24:44.995-04:00The descending triangle is negated now as well. Lo...The descending triangle is negated now as well. Looks like its a sideways range V. Bulls win above 1684 and bears win below 1679. Volatility (VIX 13.95) favors bulls.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-91840080025642423422013-07-17T12:18:29.889-04:002013-07-17T12:18:29.889-04:00my scenario chances rised to 55% according to my m...my scenario chances rised to 55% according to my models.<br />:)<br /><br />GS guyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-8160041561769664932013-07-17T12:15:55.278-04:002013-07-17T12:15:55.278-04:00sorry, typo, it wasn't on 15 min it was on 5 m...sorry, typo, it wasn't on 15 min it was on 5 min but distorted. <br />not valid now. <br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-32715626987691252012013-07-17T12:02:30.992-04:002013-07-17T12:02:30.992-04:00Interestingly, the 3-minute chart has a descending...Interestingly, the 3-minute chart has a descending triangle vibe to it today with triangle baseline at 1679.50, looks like price just slipped under, now up for a back kiss, a move lower should send price to the 1672-1674 support. Very indecisive markets today.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-79593119066668729722013-07-17T11:57:29.264-04:002013-07-17T11:57:29.264-04:00Do not see that V on the 15-minute. The rising wed...Do not see that V on the 15-minute. The rising wedge is say 7/11 thru 7/15 to the top, then a spank down occurs, now price came back up so it has more of a sideways range thru say, 1672-1684,or even 1666-1684, so maybe its a more of a sideways range where the bulls win above 1684 and bears win below 1672.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-90910649405590674812013-07-17T11:35:07.168-04:002013-07-17T11:35:07.168-04:00ascending triangle on 15 min spx chart-> that&#...ascending triangle on 15 min spx chart-> that's bullishly resolved in 78% of cases.<br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-55092402745469911932013-07-17T11:22:44.258-04:002013-07-17T11:22:44.258-04:00Yep Anon, typo on VIX and was corrected. Quite the...Yep Anon, typo on VIX and was corrected. Quite the battle at VIX 14.19 today. VIX at the lows at 14.05 so the bulls will rule, however, a long day remains ahead.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-62635835431195189212013-07-17T11:20:50.567-04:002013-07-17T11:20:50.567-04:00I rebut good sir,
"It's easy to grin, wh...I rebut good sir, <br />"It's easy to grin, when your ship comes in<br />And you've got the stock market beat.<br />But the man worthwhile, is the man who can smile,<br />When his shorts are too tight in the seat... <br />Spaulding, get your foot off the boat!"... Judge Smails<br />:)<br /><br />All kidding aside GS, I'd like to thank you directly for your contributions and comments here. Your insight is invaluable...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-13375007186343027122013-07-17T11:07:04.556-04:002013-07-17T11:07:04.556-04:00I'm watching you and will take all your money ...I'm watching you and will take all your money in seconds ;) ... you're too complacent and too self-confident! <br /><br />GS guyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-33089330134329840102013-07-17T10:57:43.490-04:002013-07-17T10:57:43.490-04:00Busting your balls here KS.
Your latest update qu...Busting your balls here KS. <br />Your latest update quotes VIX at $19.20 with $19.19 as the line in the sand. That's no line brotha, I'm short the entire market at those levels...;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-85308440077547357612013-07-17T10:28:37.819-04:002013-07-17T10:28:37.819-04:00just love those sound problems :D in the House hea...just love those sound problems :D in the House hearing!<br />if Ben doesn't speak the propper words...Bang! the microphone is cut-out! Lol :) <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-65765695655827028272013-07-17T09:52:50.204-04:002013-07-17T09:52:50.204-04:00VIX 14.19-14.20 is the line in the sand. You are c...VIX 14.19-14.20 is the line in the sand. You are correct GS guy if VIX drops under 14.19. Bears win above 14.19. The drama is unfolding right now with a test to start the day.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-44535414869251915802013-07-17T09:52:12.117-04:002013-07-17T09:52:12.117-04:00Hello,
that's the link for Bernanke's Ho...Hello, <br /><br />that's the link for Bernanke's House speech and conference after that (starting in about 6-7 minutes)<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/live-stream/<br /><br />good luck all today, <br />Thank you KS and GS guy! <br /><br />V. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-86996106309548605662013-07-17T09:51:16.208-04:002013-07-17T09:51:16.208-04:00Maybe they figured that since the congressional te...Maybe they figured that since the congressional testimony is typically always bullish, why not back off a bit?Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-76729959841494516812013-07-17T09:39:29.043-04:002013-07-17T09:39:29.043-04:00if we reach today/tomorrow 1700/1706 prepare (afte...if we reach today/tomorrow 1700/1706 prepare (after a short pullback of 22-28 points) for 1772-1778 exactly! <br />Today we started ok for this scenario.<br />Never short without trend confirmation! <br /><br />Kiss'ya all folks! <br /><br />GS guyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-45808683307507637132013-07-17T09:17:36.483-04:002013-07-17T09:17:36.483-04:00Can't remember the last time we went two days ...Can't remember the last time we went two days without, but no POMOs today (Wed) or tomorrow and the active POMO days this week are on the small side. Don't know what to make of it, but in a centrally planned world hardly seems coincidental given Bernanke testimony. There were POMOs during February testimony and one POMO last July. Liquidity however remains short term high as the monthly MBS settlements continue this week through Monday.marlowenoreply@blogger.com