tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post3873699211959538852..comments2023-10-29T06:32:19.009-04:00Comments on The Keystone Speculator™: Keystone's Midday Market Action 5/31/13; EOMKeystone Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-80357163128862145632013-06-01T06:50:00.150-04:002013-06-01T06:50:00.150-04:00Sure, a bounce may occur Monday but it may be more...Sure, a bounce may occur Monday but it may be more of a dead-cat variety with lower lows to follow after that in the days ahead. Key SPX support/resistance is 1634, then 1626-1627 then 1618, then 1614, then the 1597-1600 level. The interesting thing late Friday is that there were simply no buyers available. Considering the big gains the bulls have enjoyed it is hard to not understand folks running for the exits to lock in the gains that can serve as the entire years profits, taking the year off from here on. Thus, the absence of buyers may create ongoing market weakness.<br /><br />Utilities are key. Bulls are fine above UTIL 481. Bears will be happy with more selling occurring if UTIL 481 fails. If UTIL 478 fails, the trap-door opens and the SPX will be headed below 1600.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-84421433197743043722013-06-01T06:43:39.359-04:002013-06-01T06:43:39.359-04:00The 18-year cycle is the most significant cycle to...The 18-year cycle is the most significant cycle to follow. Bear from 1960's into August 1982 when the secular bull launched, and then ran to March 2000. We are still in the secular bear until 2018 then the new secular bull occurs from 2018-2036.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-54467867445546110622013-06-01T04:54:13.577-04:002013-06-01T04:54:13.577-04:00sorry, error detected, being in a rush:
''...sorry, error detected, being in a rush:<br />''Only the soft target (1622-1625) disclose itself as wave 4 of int iii, thus expecting a wave 5 of int iii to 1690-1720 (after that int.iv)''<br /><br />read without ''(after that int.iv)''<br /><br />V.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-44399922809836175412013-06-01T04:28:52.212-04:002013-06-01T04:28:52.212-04:00@ Anon:
I don't have a count on EEM.
On SPX, ...@ Anon:<br />I don't have a count on EEM.<br /><br />On SPX, the more softer targets for bears are:1622-1625.<br />The medium target for bears: 1580-1590.<br />The hardcore targets for bears: 1536-1543.<br /><br />Only the soft target (1622-1625) disclose itself as wave 4 of int iii, thus expecting a wave 5 of int iii to 1690-1720 (after that int.iv)<br /><br />The medium and hardcore bear targets clearly define int iv underway (with targets at 1580 or 1536-1543), with int iii finished at 1687. <br /><br />My option now is for the soft target - I don't think that market will go lower than 1622 without any material action of FED taken. <br />Int iv needs 3-5 weeks to develop- thus I don't think we are handling now with a int iv, but with the last pieces of int iii. <br />It's my opinion and I might be wrong. On Monday/Tuesday the market will tell me if it's wave 4 of int iii (if 1622-1625 resists) or if it's already int iv started from 1687. <br /><br />2 options, 2 paths.... will 1622-1625 resist or not? <br />To be or not to be ? That is the question.<br />Alternatively: 2 beers or not 2 beers? :D? <br /><br />Lol!<br />Have a great week-end! <br />V. <br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-63550484583551478172013-06-01T03:49:43.583-04:002013-06-01T03:49:43.583-04:00arnie, what is your wave count after friday's ...arnie, what is your wave count after friday's selloff? int. iv underway or minute iv with minute v up to 1700+. v., is today's down move impulsive in wave structure? are you still expecting 1550s or is that too steep a correction? v., do you have a wave count for the emerging markets (eem)? is it in a wave 3 downtrend? ks, can we expect a big bounce on Monday with NYMO below -80 and CPC around 1.2? disclosure: went long at the close (dia). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-59096330906961035202013-06-01T03:11:48.904-04:002013-06-01T03:11:48.904-04:00Timer,
I know Cowan's work.
He has provided ...Timer, <br /><br />I know Cowan's work.<br />He has provided 5 or 6 period between March an July 2013 for this cyclic top.<br />From an astrological point of view, the 21 May "beast cycle top" (the conection between the trine Venus-Earth-Mars and the opposition Uranus-Pluto) should mark a very big TOP (alike the 3 september 1929 top that happened previously to october 1929 market action).<br /><br />But you know what?<br />It won't happen now!<br />We will speak again at 1850-2100 levels during fall/winter 2013!<br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-63250160480889073662013-06-01T03:06:21.236-04:002013-06-01T03:06:21.236-04:00Position disclosure:
I'm 100% in cash.
I want ...Position disclosure:<br />I'm 100% in cash.<br />I want to load longs in the 1622 ... 1536 area in 3 or 4 % equal steps. <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-65868805135343112112013-06-01T03:02:43.327-04:002013-06-01T03:02:43.327-04:00:)
Lol, yesterday I had 2 beers and it was enough...:) <br />Lol, yesterday I had 2 beers and it was enough! <br />Equilibrium in all = that's a good idea!<br /><br />Next week will be the bears' moment! <br />Useless to reiterate here that ALL THE BEARS that will enter the market next week will be short-squeeze fuel for the final up-thrust wave to 1690-1720.<br /><br />Lol!<br />Observing the previous years topping action I've seen that every interim. top (so not the Final TOP) has a first top, after that some downside action of 50-100 points, and only after that the interim. top! <br />Now we are in the middle of the downside action after the first little top. <br /><br />p.s. Do you think that all those banksters will "invite" retailers to make some money by shorting? No. <br />They will invite small and medium money holders to short and so the big money to squeeze them! - the "invitation" to The Big Squeeze Party was sent on Friday during the last market hour. <br />Of course all the bears will jump on Monday and Thuesday to short. <br />And that having ahead the Friday's employement number and FED's decision. <br />Wouldn't that be stupid? <br />:) LOL!<br /><br />p.p.s. I will LOVE shorts when we will be in a bear market! I will glorify short when we will be in a 3rd wave of a bear market!<br />That's just not the case now!<br />We all should make the difference between what the markets offers to us and what we are seeing it offers to us!<br /><br />V. <br /><br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-83434933187017037882013-06-01T02:51:43.052-04:002013-06-01T02:51:43.052-04:00Robert,
Friday was a 5 bln $ POMO day and you'...Robert,<br /><br />Friday was a 5 bln $ POMO day and you've seen the market action.<br />I think this kind or argument doesn't always work.<br />It is a 50/50% probability that int.iii from NOv.12 is over.<br /><br />Now: <br />A. if this wave iv develops as an A-B-C, we are now in 'C' with a target of 1622.25 .<br />B. if this wave iv developed, on Friday presented it's internal wave 3 (in a structure of 5 down impulsive waves) the target for wave 3 of int iv is 1580 with a final target for int iv at 1560 - 1536. (that's a low credit option for me, I don't believe in it).<br /><br />A.2 as an option for the first assumtion: it might not be int iv, but only (still!) wave 4 of int iii - in that case target is 1622.26 and after that it's wave 5 of int iii with a target of 1690-1720. <br /><br />I pendulate between A and A.2, the option B. (not credited too much by me now) will gain traction if FED cuts QE on it's 18-19 June '13 meeting. <br /><br />So: <br />next week there will be more downside action to 1620's ...watch how the market reacts in the 1620-1628 area ...if it plummets at and then bellow 1621 (pivot 1614 + 7 points / pivot 1628 - 7 points) 1580 is the next target and after that 1560 and/or 1523. <br /><br />You won't see this market below 1523 until next spring!<br /><br />In fact I credit the market below 1591 with less than 10-20% credibility. <br /><br />So the 1591-1622 area it's the "war zone" with the information know in the market now. <br /><br />Aside from new information (related to FED june decisions , for exemple) I don't think market will get below 1591-1622 area. Maybe the FED's obtained what they wanted: a parabolic market that needed a little downside action to gain support - and they obtained that only with ...words ("we will taper, we will taper").... <br /><br />How on Earth they will taper with inflation strongly below the 2% target and with such a bad employment number , I don't know. <br /><br />My opinion is that they "speaked-down" the market to prevent something bad "a la 1987" to happen if 1700's or 1800's would have been reached without any down movement support-gainer. A little healthy support. <br /><br />As price-time, it would be a surprise for me to see this market below 1620's next week. <br />The FED decision will be strongly influenced by the next Friday's employment figures. <br />Good/very good employment figures = less QE = down market<br />Bad / Very bad employment figures = QE maintained/with perspectives of more QE = up market.<br />Neutral employment figures = QE kept at the same levels until better levels achieved = slightly to strongly up market. <br /><br />My opinion is that on Monday-Thuesday a lot of bears still alive will put their money in the market on the short side = thus providing short-squeez-fuel for the final wave 5 of int iii (up to 1690-1720 - a cluster of strong multiannual fibo-projected resistances).<br /><br />Watch out what you're doing with your money! This market is not free, so watch out what you're doing! <br /><br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-42229798171551140272013-06-01T02:43:21.919-04:002013-06-01T02:43:21.919-04:00V, dont drink too much beer this weekend, make sur...V, dont drink too much beer this weekend, make sure you dont get drunk...stay alert! Get ready for Big Monday!<br />Okay, I need to do some homework to catch up!<br /><br />Hope everyone have a nice weekend. GL!Anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-55092536404422336522013-05-31T22:53:35.431-04:002013-05-31T22:53:35.431-04:00KS et al,
B. Cowan forecast that a 13 years cycle...KS et al,<br /><br />B. Cowan forecast that a 13 years cycle top (from 2000's top) to be formed around the 20-28 May 13 period. So far, it seemed to be so, as the market has made a double top formation recently. Cowan also forecast that the market should then see a 3 years decline into the 2016-17 time frame.<br /><br />Just sharing for awareness.Timerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06791098996226709854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-29772450413338642412013-05-31T16:55:38.171-04:002013-05-31T16:55:38.171-04:00Just remember next month is a big POMO month--only...Just remember next month is a big POMO month--only two days next month are not POMO days -<br />It will be interesting to see if the markets continue to sell of or not .Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00312302955234587786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-10396476849348105332013-05-31T16:38:49.222-04:002013-05-31T16:38:49.222-04:00Can anybody let me know how I can monitor $/yen pr...Can anybody let me know how I can monitor $/yen price on TOS platform or otherwise? Thx.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-72094504928498097582013-05-31T16:15:38.531-04:002013-05-31T16:15:38.531-04:00The downside all depends on UTIL 480.65 and 477.91...The downside all depends on UTIL 480.65 and 477.91. If 481 fails, big problems for markets ahead, if 478 fails, markets will drop through a trap door. So, if bullish, you are fine at UTIL above 481, not so much under here.<br /><br />Note the finish on SPX at 1630.74 exactly stopping at Keystone's 60-Minute 200 EMA Cross Indicator where the 200 EMA is 1630.15. Big problems for markets a few pennies lower than today's close. Bulls have to bounce markets on Monday or they got problems.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-14381992712098445642013-05-31T16:08:11.822-04:002013-05-31T16:08:11.822-04:00@ Anon:
oh, I figured it out!
that was 1622-1625,...@ Anon: <br />oh, I figured it out!<br />that was 1622-1625, not 1662-1625 ...typo, sorry! <br />I was close to the target, anyway the downside is not finished :D!<br />Anyway, it was a great day! :) <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-88391741769061515542013-05-31T16:07:16.487-04:002013-05-31T16:07:16.487-04:00That was so awesome...who would have thought...it&...That was so awesome...who would have thought...it's summer time and the market sold off after 5 months of bullishness...start your bear engines we are going to 13000...well maybe for today...in your mind...Next week markets will go back upAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-55279738293797437932013-05-31T16:00:48.869-04:002013-05-31T16:00:48.869-04:00Lollll!!!!!
I'll go now and prepare my pool fu...Lollll!!!!!<br />I'll go now and prepare my pool full of beer ... swimming, drinking, swimming, drinking :)))))))))))))) <br /><br />Am I good or what the hack? <br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-38859133130580909652013-05-31T15:43:28.583-04:002013-05-31T15:43:28.583-04:00Are you sure you didn't drink the beer already...Are you sure you didn't drink the beer already? I can't figure out what you're saying.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-14431797558262653302013-05-31T15:37:20.504-04:002013-05-31T15:37:20.504-04:00Damn it!
I'm gonna sink in beer in this week-...Damn it! <br />I'm gonna sink in beer in this week-end if my target 1662-1625 is reached in the US session , NOW! <br /><br />Anyway it will be reached on ES (SPX futures) , but it depends if the americans, asians or europeans will mark the G point! :)<br /><br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-81421319645710134862013-05-31T15:20:53.677-04:002013-05-31T15:20:53.677-04:00They are. The Positions and Picks page is regularl...They are. The Positions and Picks page is regularly updated but you have to look at the time and date stamp in yellow to see the last update. All trades are posted as they occur in the morning wake up or midday market action missives, so even if the Positions and Picks page is not updated, you have to read the missives to see if any change occurred in the near term, over the last couple days, between the two it is easy to ascertain all the current status of all picks at all times. For example, SLV and PAAS was exited, but the Positions and Picks page is not yet updated, but if you read the daily commentary you will see that those trades were exited. Usually the weekends serve as times to play catch-up.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-27750611208724772082013-05-31T15:11:18.577-04:002013-05-31T15:11:18.577-04:00KS,
This question is presumptuous, gtiven all tha...KS,<br /><br />This question is presumptuous, gtiven all that you offer freely (and for free) to the public, but would it be possible to have a separate tab or link where your short-term trades are listed as they occur? <br /><br />Needless the say, I very grateful for all that you do.<br /><br />AlexAlgyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-9351038051822515532013-05-31T15:09:11.530-04:002013-05-31T15:09:11.530-04:00V, the 200 EMA on the 1-hour chart is 1630.29 in t...V, the 200 EMA on the 1-hour chart is 1630.29 in that neighborhood. The 1634 is strong support on the cash, so a break of 1647-1649, which may be occurring now, would want to test 1634, perhaps by then the 200 EMA comes up more so a confluence at 1632-1634 occurs for support, then that would send price to the strong 1626-1627 support if it fails. The downside depends on if UTIL can hold 480.65, or not.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-68006872358712954342013-05-31T15:04:51.488-04:002013-05-31T15:04:51.488-04:00LQD:
As always you have to make all decisions you...LQD:<br /><br />As always you have to make all decisions yourself. LQD has committed hari-kari in May. Keystone has posted this series of charts, corporate's, junk, muni's, etc.., LQD, MUB, HYG, LQD so type those into the search box at the right for further study. The tops have been forming in these for the last half year or more. LQD weekly chart clearly shows the negative divergence that identified the top at 122 and change. Interestingly, the 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's so the breach of 118 eventually did provide 122 where it fell on its sword.<br /><br />Staying on the weekly, note the RSI with a lower low and dropping but stochastics and histogram would be agreeable to a bounce. However, the money flow is no where near oversold, or the RSI. LQD may form a right shoulder for an H&S pattern, with the neck line in this area at 117-118, where a bounce would occur to say 120-ish then roll over down through the 117-ish to 112.<br /><br />The alternate is simply a collapse downward like utilities collapsed. LQD simply does not look attractive. The theme would likely be to exit or short it on the bounces. If not in it, probably best to stay away. The 20-wk MA and 200-day MA is 119-120 so that may have potential for an exit but she may just keep dropping. So if a long term investor and willing to tolerate a drop to say a multi-month move thru 108-112, perhaps to 102-104, then the ride can be taken for a couple years. But if a move to 112, 108, 104 or 102 would not be acceptable and there would be no patience for a drop like that and no patience to hold, then an exit at this level, 117-120 would be considered as well as an exit on any bounce.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-77236459384795628402013-05-31T15:03:50.324-04:002013-05-31T15:03:50.324-04:001622-1625 is the target for this down move - to be...1622-1625 is the target for this down move - to be reached today or on Monday (asian or european session) <br /><br />after that 1690-1720.<br /><br />V. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-66399627153125281222013-05-31T15:02:22.808-04:002013-05-31T15:02:22.808-04:00Don't have a clear opinion, maybe KS can help ...Don't have a clear opinion, maybe KS can help you.<br />Sorry,<br />V.<br /><br />p.s. don't take it personally, when I don't know something I don't improvise i simply say : i don't know. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com