tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post1373002571983172236..comments2023-10-29T06:32:19.009-04:00Comments on The Keystone Speculator™: Keystone's Midday Market Action 10/23/13Keystone Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-36344094351847591812013-10-24T05:00:44.347-04:002013-10-24T05:00:44.347-04:00The low COC and CPCE put/call ratio's must be ...The low COC and CPCE put/call ratio's must be respected. The complacency is off the charts and readily obvious in the media each day with nothing but wall to wall stock recommendations of stocks moving higher. We remain in a secular bear market 2000-2018 as per the 18-year cycle, the most reliable cycle. So the bears have opportunity to growl very strongly at anytime over the next 5 years. The current rally off the March 2009 bottom is now over 4-1/2 years long, very long by historical standards, one of the top five longest bull runs in the history of the markets. All of Keystone's cyclical indicators (reference the signal pages on this site) show the bullishness in place a long time and a reversion to the mean is desperately needed. Now would be as good a time as any.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-72091756937097752232013-10-24T04:56:41.542-04:002013-10-24T04:56:41.542-04:00On the SPX:VIX ratio, the last significant correct...On the SPX:VIX ratio, the last significant corrections were in 2011. The longer term chart hints at what you describe, the SPX:VIX ratio tends to peak ahead of time but do not read a whole lot into that. As markets top out, the complacency is at a max, as highlighted the last few days with the put/call ratio's and the low VIX. As VIX moves lower, it is in the denominator of the SPX:VIX ratio, so this catapults the ratio higher and explains why the ratio tends to peak ahead of the markets. But it is not a very useful indicator. Youcan simply watch the VIX, CPC and CPCE to draw the same conclusions. Use the 68 level for the SPX:VIX as a crash signal and we are well elevated above there. Things can change quickly and the ratio can drop dramatically. Note that the SPX:VIX did peak as August began, almost 3 months ago, so this would be consistent with the 2007 and 2011 topping action.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-42410648187702650632013-10-24T00:44:37.392-04:002013-10-24T00:44:37.392-04:00Indeed!
if 1754 and after that 1779.52 are taken ...Indeed! <br />if 1754 and after that 1779.52 are taken to the upside, a VERY bullish porn action into the end of year (to approx. 1925-1965 into end of december 2013) is preparing. <br />it's all about bankers' bonuses if you know what I mean .... what is coming into january 2014 it's another thing :) <br /><br />V.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-43538887861759926412013-10-23T16:38:03.818-04:002013-10-23T16:38:03.818-04:00KS, question regarding SPX/VIX ratio.
Looking bac...KS, question regarding SPX/VIX ratio. <br />Looking back at previous corrections (10% type), the SPX/VIX ratio appears to front run a decline sometimes weeks in advance with a steady downtrend. The behavior of the ratio over the last few months is more like a zig-zag with a slight rising bias. <br />I am not sure if the ratio is even relevant anymore, but I thought I'd ask. Reason being that I see a lot of people (not on this site) referencing past corrections (2007, 2011, etc) and comparing them to our current market and I just don't see any resemblance. The SPX/VIX ratio would seem to support a market that is trudging higher. thanks KS! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-17928062113903568402013-10-23T15:13:35.432-04:002013-10-23T15:13:35.432-04:00SOX 488.95 is key, SPX may lose the 1740-ish if se...SOX 488.95 is key, SPX may lose the 1740-ish if semi's fail but will not if SOX remains elevated. VIX is getting muscled lower which is maintaining the lift in equities. SOX at 489.96 teasing all day long, dancing along the edge of the cliff only one-point from falling down the canyon. Will the SOX slip on a loose rock, or not?Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-64630480161488719152013-10-23T15:05:20.046-04:002013-10-23T15:05:20.046-04:00It continues to be a fave moving forward--as it ke...It continues to be a fave moving forward--as it keeps dipping to new lows. Weekly JO chart all set for a launch to the upside with possie d. Daily chart leaking lower in the VST time frame but possie d in the one-month or so time frame, sans RSI. So price likely to base across this area now. 22 is key since 80/20 rule would say 18 may be on tap. No one wants to see that. 22.20 would lead to 21.80. Price is at 22.45 right now. LOD 22.40. Like it in here but as always its a knife-catch. Will probably add as the days move along, perhaps waiting one to three days to see how price settles. Would be a nice set up if 22.20 would hold.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-72993884505300204302013-10-23T15:00:53.445-04:002013-10-23T15:00:53.445-04:00That's funny. Some folks are rooting for red s...That's funny. Some folks are rooting for red socks (SOX) today and some will be this evening (World Series).Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-24868863485791466002013-10-23T14:03:54.520-04:002013-10-23T14:03:54.520-04:00KS, interesting article on coffee prices today:
ht...KS, interesting article on coffee prices today:<br />http://www.ibtimes.com/coffee-beans-market-watch-2014-1436836<br />Both GS and WSJ saying prices could fall further to $1 a pound from $1.20 next year, producing a long-term bottom. Meantime, JO is at its lower BBs on the daily and weekly charts.Weavernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-11584730979388461322013-10-23T12:45:08.995-04:002013-10-23T12:45:08.995-04:00KS, I come for the technicals but I stay for the c...KS, I come for the technicals but I stay for the color commentary... :)<br />"like a lamppost propping up a drunk on the street corner." LOL<br /><br />" Like a blind man in an orgy, I was gonna have to feel my way around." -Leslie Nielsen, the naked gun<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-46583821778315525022013-10-23T12:40:30.979-04:002013-10-23T12:40:30.979-04:00http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&...http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p63875859780&listNum=4&a=312297654<br /><br />possible small HS forming on the 60 that could measure to 1725ish which would be regression support<br /><br />right now though I think spx the linear regression data suggests that price will hold above 1740scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13178732477945523027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-49697146564545926942013-10-23T12:03:42.395-04:002013-10-23T12:03:42.395-04:00Yep Scott the negative divergence on the hourly ch...Yep Scott the negative divergence on the hourly charts finally rolled it over a little bit. The ADX moving up in May as the SPX topped was at 40 and that move up in the ADX showed that a strong uptrend was in place. not anymore. ADX is challenged in the 20's not signaling the strong up trend like previously. if ADX comes back up as shown in the chart to same levels that would verify the strong uptrend in place so that would push SPX upwards over time to the 1800 targets. Since SPX is well higher than May but ADX not enthusiastic, the thought would be that markets sell off and then ADX may climb as markets sell off thus verifying a strong trend but in the downside direction instead of up. So, just have to keep an eye on it. JJC (copper) was more important for Keybot today, semi's were the icing on the cake, but SOX already bakc on the bull side. JJC 40.21 is uber important and likely determining the fate of markets, above and bulls win, below and bears win. Current print is JJC 40.04 causing market negativity. SOX is 491.36 so this can stop the downside, for now. if SOX drops back under 488.95, markets will start dropping in earnest again. Also watch VIX 14.79. Bulls push VIX under 14 now so that helps stop any downside market action as well.Keystone Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343512310307344717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-45405743930790467772013-10-23T11:47:07.458-04:002013-10-23T11:47:07.458-04:00the fly in the ointment is the SOX getting hammere...the fly in the ointment is the SOX getting hammered which may be why keybot flipped today so fast...? scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13178732477945523027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8084606426992105990.post-33162163771483002952013-10-23T11:42:40.938-04:002013-10-23T11:42:40.938-04:00support zone from 1730 to 1740
http://stockcharts...support zone from 1730 to 1740<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p61061421519&a=312297654&listNum=4<br /><br />charts support a bounce or at the least sideways consolidation for a day or two <br /><br />ADX suggests another move higher before a sell signal<br /><br />http://www.flickr.com/photos/75188609@N07/10441790375/scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13178732477945523027noreply@blogger.com