Here comes the sequined chorus line single-file onto the floor of the NYSE. Wheeee! Whoopie! The ladies swing their long sexy legs to and fro as traders sing, "Happy Days Are Here Again, la, la, la, la, la, la, la." More happy US-China trade deal talk sends stocks higher. Dictator Xi has learned well off King Trump goosing the Chinese stocks before the closing bell by announcing an agreement with the US to phase-out the tariffs. S&P futures popped to +15 on the news early this morning US East Coast time.
China is playing Soybean Donny like a Stradivarius. The communists are focused on opening up trade again mainly for ag products. Of course they are since they have 1.4 billion bellies to feed each day. Xi is cracking down on fentanyl criminals. Of course he is. This is a pet issue for King Donny and Xi is simply stroking him; China is actually not doing much of anything on the fentanyl issue but Trump will be happy about their publically-announced actions. China's main goal is to keep letting time slip by. Xi is dictator for life while Soybean Donny may be gone in a year.
Considering the news, the 12/15/19 tariffs on tap will not occur and the presumption is the trade war has peaked and is now on the side of future resolution. It does not add up, however. Donny is giving away his tariff leverage so he must have reached an agreement on IP theft and on enforcement mechanisms. Yeah, right. We will have to wait and see what the deal is. Nonetheless, traders buy stocks like madmen. Aunt Harriet throws her cherished antique ceramic piggy bank at the base of the fireplace, it shatters wide open, she retrieves the money, many bills are silver certificates, and immediately buys stocks. This near-term top is fun to watch develop and play out. The low put/call ratios signal rampant complacency and a top to print at any time.
The bulls got jipped so far today. With such joyous trade deal news, that the tariffs will never worsen from here forward, an epic development, the S&P 500 only pops 16 points. Maybe an entrepreneur can sell a tee shirt that says; "I solved the trade war but all I got was 16 lousy points." There are few bears remaining in the markets, hence the short-covering rallies appear to have played-out; there are only bulls at the party now, each one bragging to each other about the stocks they own and continue to buy with reckless abandon. Everyone says that stocks will now rally into the end of the year and are rushing to buy before the train leaves the station. Of course the smart money is handing the shares off to Joe Sixpack that is all excited by the news hype.
This one-year picture of the daily moves shows the sideways choppiness this year from the May selloff forward. The stock market bulls are rooting for the SPX to keep breaking up and out of the green ascending triangle on its way to 3200+. The bears are cheering for the red rising wedge that will push the S&P 500 down the cellar steps in dramatic fashion.
The blue upward-sloping channel remains in play with price tapping the top rail. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3095.74 and the upper band is at 3099. That is close enough for government work so the middle band at 3025, and rising, is on the table going forward.
The red lines show the negative divergence in play that wants to spank price lower. The happy trade talk news bites keep pumping stocks higher so the charts have to adjust slightly on each bullish comment. The neggie d remains although the RSI and MACD are sloping higher trying to create a stronger upside move in this very short-term time period. These two parameters may be able to jog price for a day or two or so but the neggie d and especially the rampant complacency should smack stocks lower at any time. The drama continues. Here she comes for another look at the all-time highs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 10:29 AM EST: The SPX comes up to tease another new all-time high but does not have enough juice as yet. For now, 3095.74 remains the highest number every printed for the S&P 500 in stock market history. The day is young. Timmy Trader is running around telling everyone the coast is clear and to go all-in long in the stock market; he is guaranteeing that stocks will rally for the next two months and there is nothing but rainbows and blue skies ahead. Here she comes again. Let's see if the bulls have the juice this time to take out the HOD.
Note Added 10:35 AM EST: The SPX comes up and bloop, retreats again. The bulls want that 3100 print for the blog, website and newspaper writer's headlines, but it remains elusive while the low put/call ratios Sword of Damocles hangs over the markets head. When will it drop and lop it off?
Note Added 10:44 AM EST: Here she is again pennies from a new all-time high. The bulls are pushing, pushing....ahhhhhh, argghhh. The bulls miss again by a few cents. The bears have a resistance barricade constructed at the life-time high at 3096. The bulls are probably not done yet.
Note Added 10:58 AM EST: Here she goes. Boiinngg. The SPX spikes up through 3095.74 printing a new all-time record high at 3097.15. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The bulls want that 3.1K number so badly they can taste it. Jimmy the press boy has printed up thousands of hats that say "SPX 3.1K" and he sold his car to finance the deal. Jimmy says he will buy a Cadillac today after the epic high is hit and the hats fly off the shelves. Jimmy is optimistic but he retrieves a handkerchief from his pocket and wipes a few beads of sweat off his brow.
Note Added Friday Morning, 11/8/19: Jimmy could not sleep last night. He is sitting on boxes of "SPX 3.1K" hats but the index did not print this number as yet. Since he no longer has a car, Jimmy had to hitchhike home and then bicycle to work today. He hopes that stocks will rally but futures are red. Jimmy worries that he is stuck with a bunch of worthless hats.The SPX prints a record high at 3097.77 and all-time closing high at 3085.18. The S&P 500 bottomed at the infamous and ominous '666' in 2009. Has it topped-out at the lucky and joyous '777' now, in 2019, almost one-decade later?