Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Copper Daily Chart; Bull-Bear Battle at 2.61

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, is long and focused on copper, volatility and commodities in the Tuesday trade and that will continue today. The bears will growl if they push copper below 2.61. Bulls are fine above 2.61. Keybot tracks CPER so that line in the sand is 16.39. Copper is the most important parameter impacting US stock market direction currently. As copper goes, so goes the market.

Copper is trading down -0.45, -0.2%, to 2.6235, at 6 AM-ish EST, on the US East Coast. The copper and stock market bulls are happy. Market bears need copper to drop another -0.5% if they want to growl.

Keybot is also tracking volatility with great interest. Watch VIX 15.86 as a bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls win below VIX 15.86 while bears win above VIX 15.86. VIX is currently trading at 15.39. Commodities are also important. Watch GTX 2426.60 as the bull-bear line in the sand. These three parameters are controlling stock market direction currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:22 AM EST: VIX 15.39. S&P futures +1. Copper -0.3% (bears need copper to drop -0.7% today). The bulls are feeling pretty good about themselves with volatility and copper remaining in their camp. 10-year yield 1.71%.

Note Added at 6:22 PM EST: The bulls ride higher on optimism that King Draghi will deliver the stimulus goodies tomorrow morning. Copper sinks to the 2.61 bull-bear line but the bears could not push any further. CPER falls to 16.37 below the 16.39 line in the sand which is bearish for stocks. Commodities also failed today so the strength in stocks was a bit surprising. Buoyancy was expected in front of Draghi but the day was far more robust for the bulls than would be expected with weak copper and commodities.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/12/19 at 4:04 AM EST: Last evening, President Trump delays the October 1 tariffs for 2 weeks. The Chinese 70-year communist celebration is October 1. Trump had a lot of leverage this month to use against Xi ahead of the commie celebration but he did not use it and instead, is retreating slightly. Trump calls the gesture a goodwill move and China comically says it may buy more soybeans. US politicians continue kissing communist butt for the last few decades. Obviously, Trump wants a trade deal before the election next year. Donny bragged for months that trade deals are easy; he is realizing they are not. Even the so-called NAFTA deal, which is now called USMCA (pronounced us-meh-ka), a branding name assigned by Trump, is nothing more than incremental change, much of it will not be reinforced, he should have simply called it NAFTA 2. Trump wants deals with China and Iran and he likely does not care how fruitful the deals are. He is a carnival barker that can sell anything like USMCA where he boasted it was the greatest deal in the history of mankind. That's funny. US futures pop higher on the US-China trade deal happy talk. Copper jumps +1.8% easily erasing the slight sogginess in the hump day trade. The VIX drops to 14.59. Global traders are excited and bullish expecting King Draghi to deliver the dovish gifts in about 4 hours. The central bankers are the market.

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