Friday, January 18, 2019

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation


Finally. After a week of non-stop bull pumping by the Whitehoue, President Trump, China and the global central bankers, the SPX 2-hour is finally in neggie d. All the indicators are negatively diverged (red lines) as price prints a new matching and higher high. Price is out of gas. The MACD line is trying to sneak out a higher high but remains neggie d over the last week. At 1:33 PM, the SPX is at 2666. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous as Keystone has previously preached. The drop out of rising wedge can be dramatic and spectacular.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The SPX leaps above the upper standard deviation band at 2661 on the non-stop orgy of bullish news. Overnight, Fed's Evans was flapping his dovish wings creating +10 handles in the S&P futures. Then Fed's Williams has no shame and actually steals the same dovish words that ECB President Draghi says by urging "prudence, patience and good judgment."  The spoo's were up +20 points going into the opening bell for the regular session. Then China performs a strip tease for the stock markets promising to bring the US trade balance to zero over the next six years. The S&P 500 jumps 40 points to a HOD at 2675. The happy talk news bites keep goosing stocks higher. Let's call it the "Jawbone Rally." The middle band at 2612 is on the table.

The chart says the near-term top is now (in the 2-hour time frame). The only thing that can save it is more happy talk news bites. If the MACD line can squeeze out a tiny higher high, that could delay the top but only for a couple hours. It is likely the bears turn at bat now with a potential neggie d spankdown on tap to begin immediately. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:07 AM EST: A new candlestick begins for the 2-hour chart above at 2 PM and its moving sideways. The indicators remain in neggie d. That sneaky MACD line remains in neggie d but tries to slope higher. The near-term top should be in right now. Bulls want to try and jam the stock market into the weekend at the current levels or higher. The SPX is at 2669. The bears want the negativity in the chart above to kick in right now.

Note Added 2:23 PM EST: The SPX is at 2667. You have to see if the S&P 500 takes out the 2666 low from 1:33 PM. If so, that will lead to more downside and the neggie d on the chart above should start kicking into gear. The bulls still believe they can hang on for 90 minutes and make it to the weekend.

Note Added 2:29 PM EST: The SPX is battling at 2666. The LOD is at 2648 so if that is lost, the wheels would fall off the cart. The bulls keep trying to run out the clock.

Note Added 3:13 PM EST:  The SPX fell to the 2662 palindrome and bounced up to 2666 for a back kiss, and failed to 2663, then bounced again to 2666 right now; another back test. it is bounce or die time form 2666 and this likely dictates the direction of the stock market into the closing bell.

Note Added 4:02 PM EST: The SPX pops from 2666 to 2671 in the last minute. If you did not buy protection this afternoon, shame on you.

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