Saturday, October 29, 2016

SPX S&P 500 3-Minute Chart Collapses After FBI Reopens Clinton Email Investigation 10/28/16; Presidential Politics Explained

Friday 10/28/16 Events Occurring in Real-Time

At 1 PM EST, 10/28/16, computer screens begin flashing red. Bombshell news hits the wires. FBI Director Comey has sent a letter to Congress stating that the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails is reopened. Comey says an investigation into an unrelated case has revealed emails and information pertinent to the prior Clinton email probe. Comey is proven untrustworthy back in July after he held the press conference highlighting the illegal activity performed by Hillary Clinton then refusing to recommend charges.

Comey, President Obama, Hilary Clinton, former President Bill Clinton and Attorney General Lynch likely acted in collusion to sweep the email investigation under the rug. Comey now feels obligated to reopen the probe. In a separate matter, Lynch appears on Capitol Hill testifying before Congress on the secret Iran ransom payments and pleads the fifth. The country’s top law enforcement officer is hiding behind the Fifth Amendment to avoid exposing her alleged nefarious and perhaps illegal behavior. Washington, DC, is a cesspool of corruption.

Comey is a spy and well versed on ways to manipulate human minds. A cynical person would think that Comey is simply creating a diversion to steer the attention away from the daily drip, drip, drip of Wikileaks emails that are damaging Clinton’s standing in the polls. In a few days, Comey may say ‘nothing to see here, move along, move along’. He cannot be trusted. On the other hand, there may be proof of mishandling of classified documents and Hillary Clinton may sink into a legal quagmire and lose the election.

It is unprecedented for the FBI to insert itself into politics 11 days before a presidential election. Comey says he does not know how long it will take to conduct the investigation. Comey says he does not yet know if the new information is material to the Clinton email investigation. Sounds like the FBI director is already inserting weasel words and playing games.

The Clinton camp remains quiet on the matter without comment. Republican candidate Trump is at a rally crowing like a rooster. The Trump campaign receives a shot in the arm. The crowd cheers as Trump says, “The FBI has a chance to right the horrible mistake they made” and “this (the new FBI investigation) is bigger than Watergate.” The cable news outlets and internet are going wild as the bombshell news drops on a Friday afternoon.

In 10 minutes, from 1:00 PM to 1:10 PM, the SPX drops from 2140 to 2126 losing 14 points. The Dow collapses from 18250 to 18133. The Nasdaq Composite drops from 5228 to 5198. The RUT drops from 1195 to 1190.

The 10-year yield drops from 1.85% to 1.83% as investors seek safety. The USD drops from 98.70 to 98.40 and heading lower. The Mexican peso currency pair, a proxy for the US presidential race between Clinton and Trump, moves from an 18-handle to 19.0420 reflecting a weaker peso and polls moving in favor of Trump. Before the three debates began in late September, the Mexican peso pair was at 20-ish and dropped below 19 to an 18-handle over the last week indicating that Clinton was winning in the polls with the peso strengthening.

Stocks are printing the lows of the day. SPX 2124. INDU 18119. COMPQ 5193. RUT 1188. The VIX is at the highs of the day at 17.10.

The bookie odds begin to assign more hope for Trump winning the presidency. The odds makers had favored Clinton over Trump by 5 to 1 but the odds are changing to 3 to 1 favoring Clinton. More information on the new Clinton investigation is needed. 80% of the media provides the news from the democrat perspective so it is funny to see talking heads on CNN and MSNBC exhibiting panic that their candidate may go down in a ball of flames.

At the same time, the other 20% of the media that provides news stories supporting the republican perspective are rejoicing into the Halloween party weekend. The Drudge Report is all a flutter and pundits on Fox News are throwing confetti telling everyone to vote for Trump. The bread and circus days continue.

At 1:50 PM, the SPX is down 10 points to 2123. The Dow is down 50 points to 18120. The Nasdaq drops 22 points to 5194. The RUT is flat at 1190. VIX 17.18.

WTIC oil is down -1.6% to 48.94 dropping like a stone. Brent oil is down -1.4% to 49.76 also moving lower. The OPEC producers continue to balk at reducing oil production. Natty 3.10. Gold is up 12 dollars, +1%, to 1281. Silver gains +1.2% to 17.86. Copper gains +1.5% to 2.1955. Copper continues to support the markets.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.85%, 5-year 1.32%, 10-year 1.84%, 30-year 2.21%. The 2-10 spread is 99 bips reflecting a steeper yield curve.

Euro 1.0982. Euro/yen 114.91. Dollar/yen 104.64. Pound 1.2205. Euro/pound 0.9001. Mexican peso 19.0520. Canadian dollar 1.3406. Dollar/yuan 6.7789.

More information hits the wires. The new emails, that may impact Clinton’s presidential bid, surface during an ongoing FBI investigation into disgraced politician Anthony Weiner that is married to Huma Abedin, Clinton’s top aid. Weiner is accused of sexting with an underage minor. Abedin and Weiner are separated but remain married.

Secret government information may have been transmitted between Weiner, Aberdin and Clinton on unsecure servers. The Wikileaks and other information is making Americans question why Hillary and Bill Clinton are filthy rich, multi-millionaires, when their whole adult lives they serve as public sector employees. The Clinton Foundation is likely a cash cow of influence peddling; a piggybank for the Clinton’s quid pro quo activities.

Stocks print the lows of the session at 2:10 PM with the SPX at 2119.36. Stocks trade choppy sideways into the closing bell.

US stocks end the day lower. The SPX drops 7 points, -0.3%, to 2126. The S&P 500 bounces off the 150-day MA at 2121 intraday. LOD 2119. Price also bounced from the 150-day 12 days ago so this moving average serves as very important support. The INDU loses 8 points, call it flat, at 18161. The 20-day MA resistance is 18187 and the 150-day MA support is at 18079. LOD 18095.

The COMPQ loses 26 points, -0.5%, to 5190. AMZN tanks -5.1% which drags the Nasdaq indexes lower. Weak biotech stocks also hurt the Nasdaq. The RUT drops 2 points, -0.2%, to 1188 at 3-1/2 month lows. The VIX is at 16.19 finishing above the 200-day MA at 15.90 an important short-term bull-bear signal. Market bears will rule the markets if the VIX remains above the 200-day. 

The polls over the last couple months indicate a ceiling for Trump at around 44% of the vote while Clinton’s numbers at a floor around 44%. This is a bad omen for Trump. He must find a way to gain several percentage points or he is toast. The FBI announcement may deliver Trump the needed boost.

Campaign funds may play a key role in the final 10 days of the US presidential race. As of mid-October, Clinton had $153 million in her coffers while Trump had $68 million. Braggard Trump has said for months he will spend $100 million and more of his own money but he has barely spent one-half this amount. Once you become a politician, you automatically start lying to everyone.

Trump may have only $16 million remaining in funds to get him over the finish line in the final days. The lack of spending by Trump is obvious when viewing television ads. In key states such as Pennsylvania, anecdotally, Clinton’s television ads are outnumbering Trump ads by four to one. In Florida, the Clinton ads are outnumbering Trump ads by ten to one or more. Clinton’s message is obviously receiving more exposure. Trump is under pressure to provide funds so he writes a check for $10 million for the campaign.

The FBI announcement changes the game only days before the election. Several million people have already voted early. The Department of Homeland Security wants briefed by the FBI by 11/4/16.

At 7 PM EST, Hillary Clinton conducts a very short press conference and says she wants the FBI to release the new email information before the election. The FBI will likely not release information since the investigation is ongoing. Shed no tears for the Clinton’s since they stonewalled the email investigation for the last couple years. If the Clinton’s would have cooperated, this information would have already came out one year ago instead of hitting days before the election. Clinton conducts the short 5-minute news conference to show she is not hiding from the surprising FBI news.

Humorously, the trend in the presidential race indicates that the candidate in the media spotlight is the one that loses in the polls. Trump has had a tough couple weeks for his alleged groping of women and the tape where he denigrates women. It is now Clinton’s turn in the barrel so the polls will swing back toward Trump’s favor.

FBI Director Comey may have felt obligated to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s emails since if he waited until after election to report that the new emails were discovered he would be accused of rigging the election in favor of Clinton (if she won). The democrats previously praised Comey when he let Clinton off the hook from criminal prosecution in July but now the same folks are calling Comey a scoundrel. The circus continues with juggler Clinton and clown Trump the main attractions.

Saturday, 10/29/16

The news is dominated by the FBI decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation. The presidential polls will not build in the new information until Monday or Tuesday although a poll released this morning shows Clinton’s lead quickly deteriorating to only two percentage-points which is within the margin of error. Trump’s poll numbers hit 45% which is a tick above the general 44%-ish ceiling in place for several weeks a big plus for the campaign.

The Mexican peso currency pair moves from the 18’s to above 19 on the FBI news and then settles at 18.98. The peso has served as a proxy in the race weakening which favors Trump or strengthening favoring Clinton. Even though the peso weakens, favoring Trump, reflected by the currency pair moving higher above 19, the Mexican peso is nowhere near the 19.7-20.0 area before the first presidential debate in late September and in fact retains an 18-handle. Thus, this metric does not yet show that dramatic a recovery for Trump’s battle against Clinton. If voters flock to Trump due to the FBI news, the Mexican peso currency pair will move to 19.50 and higher (weaker peso). If the pair remains below 19.50 and especially below 19.00 (stronger peso) than Trump will not receive much of a bounce in the polls. The new FBI drama will dominate the Sunday morning political talk shows.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-09 is Available from Amazon; WFC (Wells Fargo) Scandal; DB (Deutsche Bank) Crashes Creating Contagion; "Rosengren Selloff"; "Clinton Rally" After First Debate; G-20 Summit; OPEC Oil Production Cut; Stock Market Record Highs

The September publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-09 is available through Amazon (AMZN). The epic market action continues.

September's Cover Highlights;
Record Highs COMPQ 5340, NDX 4896, AMZN (Amazon) 840
RUT Record 2016 High at 1263
WFC (Wells Fargo) Scandal
DB (Deutsche Bank) Crashes Creating Contagion
"Rosengren Selloff"
"Clinton Rally" after First Debate
G-20 Summit
OPEC Oil Production Cut

The stock market prints new record highs in September comparable to the August highs. WFC lays an egg firing over 5,000 employees for creating false accounts while the management keeps their jobs and lucrative salaries. DB is the 900-pound gorilla on the trading floor this month. Deutsche Bank is in collapse creating fear that the 2007-2009 financial crisis will be repeated beginning with a failure at the troubled German lender. However, Deutsche Bank does not appear to be in a liquidity crisis like Lehman Brothers in late 2008 and instead requires recapitalization to get through the next nine to 12 months. The key is who supplies that funding backstop especially when Chancellor Merkel places her foot in her mouth and says she will not bailout Deutsche. The drama continues.

Fed's Rosengren, typically a dove, flaps hawkish wings causing a stock market selloff. The first presidential debate takes place with Clinton out maneuvering Trump by a small margin. Stocks rally the next day as Wall Street prefers Clinton as the next POTUS. She is in the back pocket of the investment banks since she was paid lucrative fees for showing up at token luncheons. The US presidential election is only five weeks away on 11/8/16. The G-20 Summit occurs. OPEC says it will cut oil production creating a big push higher in oil prices.

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