Tuesday, April 26, 2016

CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts Signal Near-Term Top At Hand


Traders are very complacent as the uber low CPCE put/call shows and this bullish euphoria signals a near-term top for stocks is at hand. The wine is flowing like water. Traders are buying small cap speculative stocks with reckless abandon. Safer plays such as consumer staples are kicked to the curb. Trades are buying risk because the central bankers will always support the stock market forever and Fed Chair Yellen will delay rate hikes and provide more easy money candy tomorrow.

The central bankers have manipulated the stock market higher since mid-March with the Draghi pump. Yellen's dovishness in late March provided more market joy. Then the Easter holiday expected bullishness plays out with price staggering sideways. Then more Yellen dovishness creates the mid-April rally. It is ridiculous. Markets are not allowed to fully correct for the last seven years. ECB's Draghi tried to jawbone markets higher last Thursday which did not help. The Fed decision is tomorrow. No one expects a cut. Will the FOMC statement disappoint? Market bulls get two bites of the apple since even if markets would sell off after the Fed announcement, the BOJ is on tap Thursday morning. The fate of the markets are in the hands of Yellen and Kuroda over the next 31 hours. Banzai!

Sticking to the charts and ignoring the sick central banker Keynesian behavior, the expectation is for stocks to top out at any time, likely within a day or two, probably a top this week, then down perhaps 30 to 100 SPX handles over the next week or two, followed by a rebound. The stock market near-term bottom will occur when the CPCE prints above 0.85. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 4/29/16, at 7:51 AM EST: The opening bell for Friday is about 90 minutes away. The SPX is at 2076 testing the 20-day MA support at 2076 down from the high seven days ago at 2111; a 35-handle drop thus far. The CPC put/call ratio is at 1.00 remaining under the 1.20-ish level that would signal fear and panic. So traders remain relaxed about the selloff in stocks and are not concerned. Ditto the CPCE put/call that is at 0.77 remaining under the 0.85-0.90 level that would signal fear and panic and a tradeable market bottom. Thus, the expectation would be for more weakness in stocks until the put/calls print higher, above the  numbers listed, with traders wringing their hands, and that should identify the tradeable bottom to ride back up.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Golden Cross

The SPX prints a golden cross yesterday with the 50 crossing above the 200. Note, however, that the golden cross failed in late December-early January maintaining the bear market action. The death cross occurred last August and the bulls continue to try and reverse the negativity.

As always mentioned by Keystone, when a golden cross typically occurs, price actually retreats and when a death cross occurs, price actually rallies, in the near-term. This is due to price having to trend that way for many weeks to create the crosses so once it occurs price has to reverse to take a rest. If the golden cross remains, stocks will be higher for the weeks and months ahead. If the death cross remains, stocks will be lower for the weeks and months ahead.

When the death cross occurred, note how price actually bottomed after the waterfall crash and recovered illustrating the concept mentioned. The death cross remained active so price was lower in the weeks ahead into the October lows. When the bulls tried to create the golden cross in late December note how price retreated. The expectation now would be for price to retreat with the golden cross, in the near-term.

The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and universal negative divergence across all indicators create the spankdown off the top at 2111 last Wednesday. The MACD cross is negative. The money flow is agreeable to some rising price action today but overall, the indicators remain weak and hint at lower lows ahead in the daily time frame.

Of course the central bankers control the markets and with the Fed decision tomorrow afternoon and the BOJ Thursday morning, the stock market remains a coin flip. The chart is weak but the central bankers may pump equities higher with dovish talk. The SPX weekly chart remains long and strong with the MACD line and money flow so higher highs are desired in price in the weekly time frame after the negativity in the daily time frame finds a bottom.

The CPC put/call drops to 0.76 another low value indicating rampant trader complacency. No one is worried since the central bankers always save the day. Will the central bankers save the day again this week or will they create carnage as their credibility falters? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Key Levels for Trading the Week of 4/25/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 4/25/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For 2016, the intraday high for the year is 2111.05 on 4/20/16 and the closing high for the year is 2102.40 on 4/20/16. The intraday low for the year is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low thus far for the year is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 was 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

The SPX has exploded higher over the last month due to the central banker intervention especially the ECB and Federal Reserve. The highs for the year thus far printed last Wednesday. The SPX topped at the 2110-2114 resistance area and then retreated. Note how price got tangled up in the closing and intraday highs from last November and last December and did not have the energy to move up through, at this time. Pay close attention to that 2116.48 number going forward; if this is taken out, say the 2110-2116 resistance zone, then price will likely seek 2125-2135.

The SPX begins Tuesday at 2088. The bulls need to push up through 2089, which is strong price resistance, only one point higher, to create and upside acceleration. This appears on tap with S&P futures up +3. The bears need to push below 2078 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2079-2088 is sideways action for Tuesday.

If the bulls push up through 2089 then the 2093-2094 resistance test is next. The 2099 R is above that then 2102-2103. The 2102 is the closing high of the year and last December's high. Price remains elevated so the SPX will need to return lower for back tests of the moving averages. The golden cross (50-day MA up through 200-day MA) occurs yesterday a bullish signal for the weeks and months ahead, however, in the near-term, price typically retreats once the golden cross occurs. The golden cross failed in late December-early January so the SPX is giving it another go.

The bears need to push under the 2078-2084 gauntlet of support to make headway lower. Price would then seek 2074 in quick order for a bounce or die decision. If that fails, then 2071 S and 2067 S are next. April began at 2060. If the bears want a negative month to occur, they better get busy and dump another 30 S&P handles to push under the 2060. Friday is EOM with only four days of trading remaining.

The SPX was testing the important 12-month MA at 2030 one month ago and the bulls won. That price move results in the sideways to sideways higher move in stocks afterwards. The 20-day MA is 2072 and rising and will need a back kiss in the days ahead. The FOMC rate decision is tomorrow afternoon, 4/27/16. No one expects the Fed to hike rates. The BOJ provides its policy meeting decision on Thursday morning so trading will prove very interesting over the remainder of the week.

Looking at the near-term picture the strongest S/R is 2110-2114, 2102-2103, 2099, 2093-2094, 2089, 2079-2084, 2071, 2067, 2061, 2057, 2046, 2038-2040, 2032, 2017-2023, 2011, 2002, 1997, 1993 and 1985-1988.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2135 (5/20/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2134.72)
2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)
2131 (5/21/15 All-Time Closing High: 2130.82)
2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)
2129
2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)
2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)
2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)
2123
2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)
2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)
2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)
2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)
2114
2111.05 Previous Week’s High
2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2111.05)
2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)
2109
2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)
2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)
2102 (4/20/16 Closing High for 2016: 2102.40)
2100
2099
2097
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2093
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2089.37 Monday HOD
2089
2088
2087.79 Monday Close – Tuesday Starts Here
2086
2084
2083
2081
2080
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2077.52 Monday LOD
2077
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2074
2073.65 Previous Week’s Low
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2072
2071.85 (20-day MA)
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069
2067
2065
2064
2063
2061
2059.74 April Begins Here
2057
2056.37 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2053
2052
2050
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)
2044
2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here
2042
2040
2038
2038.00 (20-month MA)
2034
2032.52 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
2032
2030
2028.28 (50-week MA)
2026.52 (100-week MA)
2023
2022
2021.98 (10-month MA)
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2017.85 (50-day MA)
2017
2014.85 (200-day MA)
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2006.86 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
2002
1998
1997
1995
1994.73 (100-day MA)
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)
1992.94 (20-week MA)
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1987
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1983
1982
1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)
1980
1979
1978
1977
1973
1970
1969
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1965
1964
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1961
1958
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1949
1948
1943.03 (150-week MA)
1943
1942
1937
1936
1931
1928
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1920
1917
1914
1912
1910
1906
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1889
1886
1885
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1882
1879
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1877
1874
1873
1872
1870
1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)
1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)
1865
1862
1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)
1855
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1846
1845
1843
1841
1840
1839
1835
1831
1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)
1828.13 (200-week MA)
1828
1827
1824
1820
1816
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)
1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1808
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)
1806
1803
1801
1800
1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)
1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)
1796
1795.27 (50-month MA)
1793
1791
1788
1785
1783
1782
1781
1777

Sunday, April 24, 2016

MSFT Microsoft Weekly Chart Long-Term Sideways Symmetrical Triangle and Two-Leg Bull Flag Played Out

Mr Softy soiled the bed last week losing -7% after disappointing earnings. A long-term MIcrosoft chart shows two textbook chart patterns playing out before last week's debacle. The neon green sideways symmetrical triangle took about seven years to develop and the resolution was to the upside breaking out at 22. Note the fake-out break down from the triangle during the 2008-2009 financial crisis then the central banker easy money catapulted MSFT back inside the triangle and out the top side to new all-time highs.

The vertical side of the triangle is 25 to 32 handles, call it 30. So the breakout at 22 would target 52-54; bingo, it's there, actually a high near 57, satisfying the sideways triangle pattern in play for the last 20 years. Isn't that something? Remember chart patterns work the same in any time period whether it is on a minute, hourly, daily, weekly or monthly chart.

The neon blue shows a two-leg bull flag pattern playing out over 22 years. Mr Softy runs from 1.56 to 40.86 at the dot-com bubble, 39.30 points, then pop, the tech sector implodes. MSFT bumps along sideways with a slight downward bias for the next several years. This is textbook action for a bull flag. The center consolidation flag places a low at 12.50 and then price runs higher breaking out above the flag area so you know it has legs. Therefore, 12.50 + 39.30 = 51.80 as a price target; bingo, it's there satisfying the bull flag pattern.

MSFT was printing new highs last as the red lines show negative divergence in place and boom, price receives a spankdown as the neggie d dictates. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts



The last chart of the CPC put/call shows the market top occurring due to the uber complacency, however, the SPX only retreats a paltry amount of points late last week, at least so far. After the last uber low CPC last Wednesday, the CPC spikes higher to 1.17 and the CPCE spikes higher to 0.85. The high numbers are in the area where a VST market bounce may occur, and this helped create the Friday recovery in stocks, but as seen by the charts, the stock market has not placed a proper sturdy bottom since February. Several uber low complacency readings occur in March and April but any start of a stock market pulll back has been snuffed out by central banker dovishness.

The 3/10/16-ish date jives exactly when ECB President Draghi fired his money bazooka. That was followed by Fed Chair Yellen's dovish rhetoric which created another boost in stocks, then the Easter bullish positivity played out, then Yellen jawboned more dovishness. This takes markets into the high last Wednesday-Thursday with Draghi once again at bat and he stands pat with the current stimulus plan (which is plenty of juice although the market weakness began after Draghi' s decision). The FOMC decision is this coming Wednesday.

It is shameful how the central bankers have pumped the stock market higher for seven years. They have destroyed price discovery as well as the concept of free markets. At this point, there has to be from 20% to 80% of fluff under the stock market after seven years of obscene Keynesianism. That will be an interesting sight when it all unravels at some point in the coming months.

The spikes to 0.85 for the CPCE and 1.17 for the CPC help create the bounce in the stock market last Friday as traders quickly became worried buying puts for protection so the tinge of fear creates quickie bottom action in the hourly time frame. The put/calls then drop on Friday's print.

The CPCE put/call ratio drops to the lowest level in over one month so traders are the most complacent and fearless in the last five weeks. The stock market is not an attractive buy until the bullish euphoria is washed away with tears of panic and sadness. To place a firm reliable stock market bottom, you want the CPC above 1.20 and the CPCE above 0.90.

The choppy action will likely continue. A pull back in stocks is long overdue. The complacency has not been rung out of the stock market as the charts show so the only way to do it is with panic and fear. The idea would be to exit long trades now and not consider the long side until the put/calls print above the green lines. The rising wedge is an ominous pattern for the SPX. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The Fed decision on Wednesday afternoon will be a key inflection point. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The Nazzy is displaying negative divergence which creates the initial spankdown off the top. The overbot stochatics and the rising wedge are bearish indications. The ADX shows that the downtrend in price to begin the year was very strong but the two-month uptrend is not (ADX remains 22 or lower).

Price started to fill that huge gap at 4900-5000. The gap above is 5060-ish. The upper resistance is 5153. The chart is set up negatively and the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The weekly chart indicates a preference to see higher highs say in May after any pull back occurs in the daily time frame. The 200-day MA at 4850 serves as a near-term target for a pull back where a bounce or die decision would occur. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Weekly Chart


There is major price resistance at 1160-1166 (thick blue line). The market bulls will be on easy street above this level. The 100-week MA is 1166. Price will have to get up through the 50-week MA resistance at 1151 first.

100-wk MA 1166
Price Resistance Level 1160-1166
50-wk MA 1151
Now 1147
150-wk MA 1145
200-day MA 1129
150-day MA 1106

Remember last year when Keystone pointed out the red rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d that created the big spank down. The brown bear flag pattern plays out next with leg one dropping about 215 handles, then the sideways consolidation with a slight upward bias, this is textbook behavior, so when price falls and drops under 1125, under the brown consolidation box, the lower target is in play at 1000 which is 1210-ish minus 215. Price nails the 1000 satisfying the bear flag.

The light blue lines show an expansion pattern in play, or megaphone pattern. This started one year ago and price keeps making lower lows and lower highs in and expansion pattern. If the bears can hold the top trend line in this 1125-1166 area over the next month, and price rolls back over to the downside, there is a mightily low target in play at that point. If price targets the lower trend line say into the end of this year, that would be the 700-900 range. There are likely very few investors ready for that. Of course the chart and analysis can be updated and modified as the time progresses. If price moves above 1166, there is likely a bull party that will continue well into and perhaps through the summer with elevated stocks prices.

The Russell 2000 is a major key to the stock market path ahead and it will be providing serious and important clues this week. The ROC indicator topped out and the stochastics are overbot so these two indications will combine with the neggie d on the daily chart to create a pull back. The green lines, however, show long and strong indicators so price will want to come back up after any pull back and make a higher higher sometime in May. 

If there is a two-week jog move, say down this coming week and up the week after, the indicators can conceivably negatively diverge as fast as two weeks but right now it hints that the top for the RUT may be around mid-May. The global news will likely begin playing a more important role in the stock market. The Brexit vote is 6/23/16. Stocks are long overdue for a pull back so a move lower combined with bad geopolitical news can create a sharp drop. The central bankers keep pumping with easy money and the Federal Reserve is on tap this week on Wednesday. The stock market typically moves sideways to sideways higher into the Fed announcement. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart W Pattern Overbot Negative Divergence

There is big-time drama occurring with the small caps that will determine if the bull market rally has more legs, or not. Price moving above the 200-day MA at 1129 is a serious death nail in the bear's coffin. Each day that price remains above is another nail hammered into the coffin lid and there are five nails already. The bear's will not spring back to life unless the RUT falls back under the 200-day MA. The 50-week MA at 1151 is the next overhead resistance. The bear's last possible stand would be a the 1160-1165 area which is string price resistance. Above 1160 and the Russell is probably going to 1200.



100-wk MA 1166
Price Resistance Level 1160-1166
50-wk MA 1151
Now 1147
150-wk MA 1145
200-day MA 1129
150-day MA 1106

The W pattern was satisfied; remember, the W's are very powerful bullish patterns especially if they form under both the 50 and 200-day MA's. The W is 80 handles tall so the breakout from 1040-ish targets 1120-ish which was achieved. The red rising wedge, overbot stochastics and universal neggie d (red lines) now conspire to create a smack down probably to begin the new week.

The MACD line may poke higher, if so, that would extend the upside a couple more days. The RSI did not reach the overbot level either, which would remain on the table for the future requiring price to come back up after any pull back. The RSI weekly chart has long and strong indicators so higher highs are likely in the weekly time frame. Thus, a pull back should occur but in the weekly time frame, say sometime in May, there will likely be higher highs in the RUT perhaps testing the 1150-1165 area.

Price should show respect to the 200-day MA and come back for a back test and bounce or die decision so the 1129 is a logical target for a quick pull back. This move will tell a lot since price will either resume the uptrend or fail from the 1129-1130 level when it is tested. The 20-day MA is rising so in a day or three will likely be at the 200-day MA level at 1129 which provides an extra magnetic force for price to seek this level.

The ADX  (brown box) shows that the downtrend in price from late last year into this new year was very strong. The downtrend lost its mojo when the ADX fell lower as March began. That opened the door to at least sideways to sideways higher price movement. The surprising thing is that with this robust two-month rally the ADX remains low verifying that this obscene move higher in the stock market is not a strong uptrend.

The slope of the 150-day MA was highlighted in previous charts. It is an excellent indicator of the cyclical pattern of any stock or index; you can check the slope of the 150-day MA for all your positions to see if they are in cyclical bull or bear markets. The pink 150-day MA line is clearly sloping lower verifying that small caps are in a cyclical (weeks and months) bear market pattern. Upon close inspection, where a magnifying glass may come in handy, the 150-day MA slope is flattening--but not yet.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ 150-day MA's have all recovered and are sloping higher indicating that the S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite are all in a cyclical bull market pattern again (by this metric). The Russell 2000 is the hold-out. Over the last two days, the 150-day is 1105.85 and today 1105.62. It continues sloping lower losing 23 cents. Watch this closely in the coming days because the 150-day MA sloping higher will be a huge nail in the bear's coffin. By definition, the 150-day MA will slope higher if price is above; thus, the bear's must jam the RUT under 1106 as fast as possible to make sure the stock market remains sick and selling off going forward

So there is quite a soap opera going on with the RUT for the week ahead. The 200-day MA at 1129 will continue telling the story. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Signals Near-Term Market Top

The market bears have been jipped over the last month with the central bankers preventing markets from correcting with their non-stop stimulus and dovish commentary. The low CPC in March identifies a near-term top but the pullback was paltry. Remember late last week, Keystone highlighted the last low print and a big pull back was expected to begin but it was another paltry dip.

The bulls are jamming stocks higher as everyone believes the central bankers will continue supporting stocks forever. This is why the put/call shows the uber complacency in markets. There is no reason to ever worry about a selloff and if so, the central bankers will print money and stocks will end up higher. This is the sick world the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers have created. The CPC is a contrary indicator.

You know the drill and the third time is a charm. Bears should finally extract their pound of flesh. A market top should occur at anytime any day forward and a pull back of from 30 to 100 handles on the SPX is expected. ECB President Draghi speaks on Thursday morning and he may be standing ready with his money bazooka to foil the bears. A pull back is long overdue so it may be fast and swift. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts VIX Prints 12-Handle


The volatility continues lower providing bull fuel for higher stocks. The VIX prints a 12-handle as the bulls light cigars and sip Fed champagne. The red circles show significant market tops due to lack of fear. The green circles show market bottoms when there is rampant fear and panic and the blood is flowing in the streets. What do you think will happen?

Market bears got nothing until they push the VIX above that 200-day MA at 18.65. Note the death cross on the SPX chart back in August of last year. The bulls tried to create a golden cross to begin this year but failed. The 50 is coming back up again to the 200. Will a golden cross occur? If so, the VIX will be on its way to 11 and the wealthy, that own large stock portfolios, will be dancing in the streets carrying Yellen around on their shoulders.


The red circles hint that different outcome is likely. Remember, when a golden cross occurs, or is about to occur, that takes weeks of time to develop, and in this case two months of stronger prices, so when the cross occurs, price is typically running out of gas and needs a rest. So price typically drops when a golden cross occurs; this is why the indicator is the butt of jokes. However, it is a good indicator. You simply have to be aware that a pull back is likely when the golden cross is about to occur and occurs, but if the golden cross remains (50 above the 200), stocks will recover and print higher in the weeks and months ahead. If the golden cross does not occur and the death cross remains, stocks will fall down the rabbit hole again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Top of Channel Upper Band Violation

The market bulls are giving the bears the business this week roughing them up in the corner of the pool hall. The RSI and MACD line were trying to create more long and strong juice on the last SPX 2-hour chart and the RSI prints a higher high now in overbot territory. The short term spurt in the RSI and MACD line creates the further buoyancy in stock prices. The bulls appear unstoppable and with the central bankers on tap, ECB on Thursday morning and Fed next Wednesday, traders are not worried or concerned. Everything appears as blue skies and rainbows while sipping Fed wine and smoking ECB crack.

A new candlestick begins at 10 AM EST so that is an important item to jot down. Now you know that the new 2-hour candlesticks will begin printing at noon, 2 PM EST and then 9:30 AM EST tomorrow morning at the opening bell.


The RSI spurt higher occurs but interestingly, note the new candlestick. It is at the same price or higher but the RSI is flatish (this can change over the next 2 hours). This already hints at a roll over again. The MACD line is long and strong in the very short term, however, so that wants price to print one more matching or higher high with another future candlestick. Thus, the market top is likely 2 to 4 hours away.


Price tags the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2082 is in play. The expectation remains that stocks should top out perhaps today. If price performs a jog move down-up-down (to satisfy the long and strong RSI and MACD juice in the VST), that would peak stocks out at say between 2 PM and 4 PM this afternoon. The expectation remains for stocks to top out at anytime probably today. Price is at the top trendline of the upward-sloping channel a logical place for a pull back.


Price broke up through the 2093-2094 resistance so 2099 is next (reference the previous SPX S/R missive for support and resistance levels; scroll back or type "SPX Support" into the search box to bring the article up) and price pierces up through this strong resistance. The next resistance levels above are 2102-2103, 2110, 2114 and 2121-2123. One of these levels are logical for the top. The HOD is above 2102 at the 2102-2103 level so this may hold as the top. If price pokes up through 2103, then 2110 is a logical candidate as the top. The MACD line and RSI above will tell you when the top is in as soon as they print lower lows as price continues to print matching or higher highs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.


Note Added 10:26 AM EST: The bulls thrust the SPX up to a HOD at 2104.05 trying to poke through the strong 2102-2103 resistance but retreats in a few minutes time. The RSI slopes briefly higher in that tiny two candlestick time period but is now flat again like the chart above. The MACD line remains long and strong in the VST so the jog move prognostication remains in play. Stocks may soften say from now to 1 PM, then recover again to current levels say into the 1 PM to 3 PM time period, where, if the MACD line has neggie d in the short term, that would be the top. It will be interesting to see how it works out today.

Oil and Stocks Continue Trading in Sync


The SPX S&P 500 and USO Oil charts clearly show how oil and stocks continue to move exactly in sync. Oil popped higher when the opening bell in the stock market was ringing yesterday and the jump in oil creates the recovery in stocks. Throughout the entire day, as oil goes, so goes the markets. European stocks and US futures are higher this morning (Tuesday, 4/19/16) with oil higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, April 18, 2016

BPSPX Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX remains on a double-whammy buy signal. Price had reversed six percentage-points off the bottom in February for a buy signal. Then price moves above the key 70% level in early March for the double whammy buy signal and the bulls never looked back.

The BPSPX tops at 79.60. A six percentage-point reversal is 73.60 where a market sell signal would occur. If the BPSPX then loses the 70 level, that would be a double-whammy sell signal for the stock market; equities would be falling like a stone. The market bulls are fine with their feet up on the desk as long as the BPSPX stays above 73.60. The drama continues. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UPS United Parcel Service Weekly Chart 20/50 MA Cross Cyclical Bear Market

United Parcel Service is a key global economic bellwether since contracts, parts and products all need shipped. The broad stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern if the 20-week MA is above the 50-week MA on the UPS chart and in a cyclical bear market if the 20 is under the 50. As seen above, the bulls and bears are fighting this one out for months; for over one year!. The UPS 20-wk MA is under the 50-wk MA signaling a cyclical bear market pattern ahead for the stock market.

If you are a longer term trader, you need to follow the 150-day MA slopes for the SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT, the UPS 20/50-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to figure out the cyclical market path ahead. All seven indicators are charted this evening so scroll back to review the charts or type the ticker symbol into the search box at the right to bring up the chart.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ 150-day MA's are sloping higher, the SPX is above the 12-month MA and the NYA is above the 40-week MA all cyclical bull market signalsThe RUT 150-day MA is sloping negatively and the UPS 20/50 cross is negative maintaining cyclical bear market signals. When all seven of these signals are in the same camp, you will be completely sure that stocks have chosen that direction forward for the weeks and months to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart 12 MA Cross Cyclical Bull Market

The SPX crossing above the 12-month MA at 2033 at the end of March was a serious blow to bears. The SPX 12-month MA cross is one of Keystone's key cyclical signals; it is "the cliff." Bad things happen to the stock market if the 12-month fails and that can be seen last August and December once this important moving average was ruptured.

But the bulls have returned to glory pushing the S&P 500 back above the 12-month signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. Note how price came down to tap the 12-month MA this month, showing it the respect it deserves, and then price ventures higher printing a new high for the year at 2095. Bears need the SPX under 2033 pronto or they got nothing on this cyclical (weeks and months) basis. The cyclical bear ended a couple weeks ago and is now in a cyclical bull market pattern as per this indicator.

If you are a longer term trader, you need to follow the 150-day MA slopes for the SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT, the UPS 20/50-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to figure out the cyclical market path ahead. All seven indicators are charted this evening so scroll back to review the charts or type the ticker symbol into the search box at the right to bring up the chart.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ 150-day MA's are sloping higher, the SPX is above the 12-month MA and the NYA is above the 40-week MA all cyclical bull market signalsThe RUT 150-day MA is sloping negatively and the UPS 20/50 cross is negative maintaining cyclical bear market signals. When all seven of these signals are in the same camp, you will be completely sure that stocks have chosen that direction forward for the weeks and months to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40 MA Cross Cyclical Bull Market

The bulls slapped the bears in the face over the last two weeks sending the NYA above the 40-week MA, a critical overall stock market cyclical signal. Price is above the 40-week MA signaling a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market ahead. The bears better work to send the NYA lower pronto or they will receive a summer of pain as the bulls celebrate on the beach. The cyclical bear market began last July and ended two weeks ago.

If you are a longer term trader, you need to follow the 150-day MA slopes for the SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT, the UPS 20/50-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to figure out the cyclical market path ahead. All seven indicators are charted this evening so scroll back to review the charts or type the ticker symbol into the search box at the right to bring up the chart.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ 150-day MA's are sloping higher, the SPX is above the 12-month MA and the NYA is above the 40-week MA all cyclical bull market signalsThe RUT 150-day MA is sloping negatively and the UPS 20/50 cross is negative maintaining cyclical bear market signals. When all seven of these signals are in the same camp, you will be completely sure that stocks have chosen that direction forward for the weeks and months to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.