Sunday, January 31, 2016

CL Crude Oil Commitments of Futures Traders COT Weekly Chart and USO OIl Fund Daily Chart


The oil COT chart was highlighted a couple weeks ago and the comment at the time was that the close proximity of the blue and red bars towards the centerline, the most squeezed in for a long time, indicated a bottom in oil. In addition, the prior two key lows in March and August occurred with bars squeezed in towards the centerline of the chart.

So a bounce occurs in price and the bars expand outwards which occurs during a rally in price. The daily chart shows the universal positive divergence across all indicators, as well as oversold conditions and the falling wedge behavior, that created the launch in price. The USO oil price is well below the moving averages so a mean reversion higher is needed.

Oil should rally higher in price until the COT bars print inside the red circle. Does it happen this week or one month from now? There is a cluster of resistance formed during December at the 11-ish area for USO. Oil prices are expected to float higher unless a negative news event occurs to collapse prices lower such as Iran ramping up production or Russia refusing to curtail production. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note:  The COT chart is provided by Cot Price Charts a very useful and informative site and the chart is annotated by Keystone.

Note Added 8:24 PM EST on Monday evening, 2/1/16: WTIC oil crashes -7% today down to the 31.32 level. Price is taking a rest from the launch from under 27 to 34 over the last two weeks. More oil volatility is expected. The weakness in the China PMI took wind out of oil's sails as well as the OPEC, Non-OPEC nations and Russia not wanting to cut production rates. Oil is trading emotionally off the news bites.

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Keystone highlighted the falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence (green lines) expecting a possie d launch, which occurs with oil price jumping from 26 to 34 over the last couple weeks. The stochatics are long and strong hinting at a higher high for price after any pull back occurs. Watch for the MACD positive cross (green and red lines) which would indicate higher oil prices ahead.

The lower standard deviation band violation was highlighted a couple weeks ago and price bounces with a target of the middle band at 40.46 and falling on the table. Price will likely want to kiss the middle band which would be expected anytime over the next couple-three weeks at the 36-41 range.

So the expectation is for more buoyancy in oil prices but it is dependent on the news flow as evidenced last week. Oil prices jumped on news of a potential meeting with the OPEC, non-OPEC nations and Russia that were to agree on a 5% oil production cut. Oil prices soared higher. Then Iran and Russia threw a wet blanket on that news so oil prices relaxed.

Today, Sunday, the Saudi's are back at it talking about the need for cooperation among oil producers to lower oil production. If a meeting and production cut occurs from the oil producers the WTIC price will likely jump to tag that middle standard deviation band in a heartbeat. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX Daily Charts Signal Near-Term Market Top at Hand


Traders remain relaxed and complacent despite the market turmoil. The CPCE is down at 0.58 where a market top would be expected to occur at anytime any day forward. The CPC put/call ratio is not yet down to a comparable low like the CPCE above so that may hint that a couple more days are needed before the market top is in place.

The saw tooth action over the last two weeks is creating confusion in the numbers. In late December the CPCE was at a low with complacency. A market selloff occurs as forecasted but the put/call immediately catapults to the 1.20 number indicating rampant fear and panic and a market bottom, which occurs. The put/call then drops into complacency creating the top and steep drop off starting during the last couple days of last year. The CPCE is now down to the similar levels as the late December stock market top. A lot of the put/call activity is noise nowadays due to the high volatility creating the large-point whipsaw action.

Thus, if you are bullish the market, temper your enthusiasm and be more tactical and cautious during the week ahead. A short position against the market for a near-term trade could be considered with a scale-in to the short side taking place during the week ahead. Check the CPCE and CPC put/call ratio's on Monday evening. If the CPCE drops under that thick red line the market top is here so it would be extremely important to have downside protection in place immediately. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:29 PM on Monday, 2/1/16: The CPCE created a strong spank down at the opening bell this morning. The Dow was down 166 points. Stocks rally intraday, however, and the CPCE ends at 0.63. CPC is 1.02 in the middle area no man's land. Both put/call ratio's are going to need to move lower to signal a near-term top; there is not enough complacency in place. Thus, the market bulls may create buoyancy in stocks for a day or three.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

NYMO and NYA Daily Charts Near-Term Market Top at Hand



The NYMO explodes higher last week and is up in the range consistent where stock market near-term tops occur (red circles). Remember when the NYMO collapsed and played around under -60 Keystone was looking for a rally at hand, which occurred. Now we are on the other side of the boat. Price oscillated at the bottom and may very well oscillate for a day or three or more at the top, however, a near-term top is at hand and ready to begin at anytime any day forward.

The NYMO exceeds all prior highs except for the early October high. Interestingly, that huge spike resulted in a market selloff but prices recovered and then printed the key top about three weeks later. An open mind must be given to this same fractal behavior occurring again as shown by the brown boxes. Nonetheless, at the least, a market top should occur early in the new trading week, if not, very likely at the middle of the week, if not, extremely likely by the end of the week.


Stocks may sing a siren song this week luring long traders into the long side especially with the easy money the PBOC (Chinese central bank) will likely provide to goose markets into the New Year's holiday. Be leery of the upside in stocks as the NYMO indicates. You can play with some longs that you are ready to ditch on a moment's notice but now is likely not the time to commit to the long side for a longer duration trade. The next move down n the NYMO to -60 will likely be a better time to commit to the long side just like it was a couple weeks ago. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.


Note Added 8:39 PM on Monday evening , 2/1/16: NYMO is at 52.88 so a stutter-step sideways. Watch tomorrow to see if the NYMO spikes higher like the fractal from early October, that would be in concert with stocks printing higher, but watch-out since the pull back in equities came quickly afterwards.

SPX 2-Hour Chart Inverted H&S

Here is the 2-hour with the updated inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. The SPX went sideways last week then broke out to the upside. Thus, it has two right shoulders but no one is perfect. The price action allows two solid neck line levels to be drawn in the 1905-1915 range. The head of the H&S is 1825. Thus, calculating two top side targets for the inverted H&S is 1985 (1905+80) and 2005 (1915+90), call it the 1985-2005 target zone and this is now in play since price has broke up through the 1905-1915 neck line. There are a few gaps that need filled up top.

The histogram is negatively diverged, the stochastics are overbot and price has severely violated the upper standard deviation band, so these three indicators conspire and want to create a pull back in price. However, the RSI, MACD and money flow remain long and strong and will want higher highs in price after any pullback in this 2-hour time frame.

The arrows show the tight squeeze on the standard deviation lines that popped price skyward. Price has violated the upper band so a move back to the middle  band at 1901 and rising is on the table going forward. The middle band will move up into the 1905-1915 neckline area so this zone should be back kissed in the days ahead where price will decide if it truly wants to go higher, or not. The chart is favorable to the bulls but the choppy erratic action will likely continue due to elevated volatility. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is a critical short term market signal. Price is at 1940 under the 200 EMA at 1947.48 forecasting bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Bears will flip stocks south again and resume the downward slide across the board if the SPX remains under 1947 and heads lower.

The bulls win big time and a strong upside rally is confirmed if the 200 EMA at the 1947-1948 level is taken out to the upside. Write 1947.48 down and watch it like a hawk in the week ahead; it is an extremely important level; you will likely see price play around at this level going forward as it makes a critical bounce or die decision.

The arrows show the tight squeeze on the standard deviation lines that popped price skyward. Price has violated the upper band so a move back to the middle  band at 1905 and rising is on the table going forward. Price may run up to tap on the 200 EMA then come down to kiss the middle band then back up again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart Sideways Channel Breakout

The weakness in the utilities over the last few months was a dire indicator for the broad stock market and stocks did fall down the rabbit hole. The outperforming sector last week was the utes catapulting +4% higher above 600. The indicators are long and strong wanting more price highs after any pull back in this weekly time frame although the money flow is not impressed and is trying to create the initial pull back from the big run higher during the last 7 weeks.

Utilities moving higher is a bullish sign for stocks in this weekly time frame say for the next couple months or so into the April-May period. This is interesting since many market participants were ready to slit their wrists last week and continue to predict a huge drop in stocks at anytime. Usually the consensus is always going the wrong way. The television pundits told Ma and Pa Kettle to buy stocks over the last 18 months and now they have lost -10% to -30% of their money. Pa is eating franks and beans while Ma is huddled in the corner at the cast iron potbelly stove burning newspaper advertisements to keep warm.

The 15-week closing price is key since it determines if utes are in a weekly uptrend or downtrend and this influences broad stock market direction. The new week ahead compares back to the purple circle. Last week, price took out the 597 level creating a weekly uptrend for utilities which is market positive going forward. Price would need to drop under 594.41 to create a negative market signal. If UTIL then falls under the 50-week MA at 578, a stock market crash is on the table. At the least, if 578 fails, the SPX would be expected to drop from 20 to 40 handles in very quick order (a couple hours). The blue circle is the comparison number for the week of 2/8/16 which is 580.50 that will replace the 594.41 in importance.

Thus, providing fresh bear meat for those short the market, bears want UTIL under 594 this week which will create market selling then under 578 stocks will fall into a dramatic collapse. Or, for the week of 2/8, the market bears need UTIL to fall below the 578-580 level which would open a trap-door in the stock market creating carnage.

On the bull side, price simply has to stay at current levels and float sideways or higher and this will help the stock market bulls on a weekly basis going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

The BPSPX prints a double-whammy buy signal as previously discussed. Price has made a six percentage-point reversal off the bottom providing a buy signal and then price moves above the important 30 level issuing the double-whammy buy signal. So the bulls are in good shape unless a six percentage-point reversal occurs. Since this number is down at 27.20, the 30 level would be more important for the days ahead. The stock market bulls are likely okay going forward as long as the BPSPX remains above the 30 level.

If the bears flex their muscles again and move down through 30 and 27.20, the double whammy sell would be in effect again, however, in this very low BPSPX area, under 35, the chart would likely only set up for a bounce again. The bulls have the upper hand with the BPSPX  indicator. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Fibonacci Retracements and Technical Analysis Explained for Recent 'W' Bottom and Wedge Patterns

The bulls mount a big up day on Friday with the S&P 500 gaining 47 points, +2.5%. Shorts were running for their lives creating bull fuel as they covered. Price is above the 20-day MA which is the first step in a recovery rally so watch the 1925 level and dropping. The DAX (Germany) moves above its 20-day MA as well. The blue Fibonacci lines are using the closing prices from the late-December top down to the low seven days ago and the brown lines use the intraday highs and lows. Interestingly, price is coming up on resistance at 1943-1946 which represents the 38% Fib retracement using the closing numbers and 50% Fib retracement using the wider scale intraday low. If price moves above the confluence of the 1943-1946 Fib's, then price will next seek the confluence at 1969-1978, from a Fibonacci price perspective.

The 'W' pattern bottom played out in textbook fashion. Remember, when a W forms under both the 50 and 200-day MA's that is especially strong for the bulls as Keystone pointed out at the time. The W has a bottom at 1875 and top at 1990, a difference of 115 handles so that targets 2105 (1990+115), which occurs in early November. At that point, the W pattern was resolved and if long you would want to exit expecting price to relax from that point forward, which it did.

Note the three blue dots; the dots identify potential price entries for scaling into a long position. Remember, chart patterns and behavior are the same no matter if you are looking at a minute chart or a weekly chart or a monthly chart. But for most any trend line breakout to the upside, or C&H or inverted H&S breakouts to the upside (from their respective base line and neck line), the three blue dots are a way of buying into the breakout. This technique is useful in day trading.

The first blue dot is where the position is bot on the breakout. After the initial pop, price will typically come back down for a back kiss of the breakout line to make sure it wants to head higher. As price retests the breakout line and bounces, that is another buy point for the stock since it was a successful back kiss for the bulls. Then it is best to wait and if price breaks above the initial price peak after the breakout (thin blue line), and in this case it did, so that is the third buy point. So if you commit to scaling into a long say with four entries, that would be three and then once price jumped it could be chased to have the entire long position in place. Then once the W pattern target was hit at 2100 and higher, 'git outta Dodge, git while the gittin' is good'. The position can be liquidated or sold off in two or three trades scaling-out.

The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern as price forms the apex of the wedge and boom, a spankdown occurs due to the overbot conditions and negative divergence (red lines). For the green falling wedge, that is a bullish pattern as price falls into the apex of the wedge. The indicators are oversold but not the money flow. The RSI, histogram and stoch's were positively diverged bouncing price higher but the MACD line and money flow likely want price to come back down again. The pink sideways triangle breakout targets about 50 handles of upside which is in that 1943-1950 range.

The indicators are all long and strong so higher prices are likely in this daily time frame after any pull back would occur. Price may want to come back down to test the 1914-1925 range back kissing the 20-day MA before proceeding higher. Price is so close to the 1943-1946 Fib range target that it would be prudent to print in this range and test this area first then perhaps the move lower to test the 20-day MA support. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Friday, January 29, 2016

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 1902. Market bulls need to push copper higher and volatility lower to prove that they intend to take stocks higher. The bears need to push utilities lower to try and regain control. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Monday, January 25, 2016

SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart Sideways Channel Potential Inverted H&S Patterns

The SPX 30-minute shows a couple of interesting potential inverted head and shoulders (H&S) patterns. The brown inverted H&S has a head at 1815 and neck at 1890 so the target is 1965 if the 1890 is violated to the upside which it currently is. The blue inverted H&S shows the head at 1815 but a neck line at 1900 which targets 1985 if the 1900 level is violated to the upside.

The SPX is staggering sideways through the purple channel at 1890-1910. So bulls win big above 1907-1910 and bears win big under 1890. If price drops under 1890 the potential inverted H&S patterns would become meaningless. Price must make a decision. A breakout above, or break down below, will likely determine the near term direction forward. The indicators are not tipping their hands. The MACD line would like another look at the 1890-ish in this 30-minute time frame but the 2-hour chart hints that a move back to the 1907-1910 upper channel boundary is on tap. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:12 PM:  The SPX floats higher to kiss the 1900 level exactly in the middle of the sideways 1890-1910 channel. The drama continues.

Note Added 8:09 AM EST Tuesday Morning, 1/26/16: The bears pushed the SPX down to the bottom of the channel at 1890 then boom, the bottom fell out. Price drops to fill the gap shown by the blue circle. The SPX ends yesterday down at 1877.08 with a LOD 1875.97. The 30-minute is worth watching going forward since the chart may continue to morph into an inverted H&S pattern with a potential neckline at 1907. If 1907 gives way to the upside, 2000 would be targeted by the inverted H&S pattern. For now, the bears continue pushing stocks lower with S&P futures a hair positive before the Tuesday opening bell. The bottom of the gap fill is 1867 which is also strong price support. Very strong S/R levels are at 1897, 1884, 1878, 1874, 1872, 1867-1868 and 1848. The SPX begins Tuesday at 1877 stopping at the strong 1877-1879 support. If the strong 1872-1874 levels fail, price will likely collapse through 1867-1868 like a hot knife through butter and seek the very strong support at 1848-1849. Bulls need to push up through the 1877-1879 resistance which will shoot price upwards to test 1884-1885 for a bounce or die decision. A bounce takes price to 1897 next. Stocks may be buoyant into the Fed decision tomorrow afternoon. Stocks are moving lockstep with oil prices. As oil goes, so goes the markets

BPSPX Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

For the BPSPX, the six percentage-point reversals are a key signal as well as the 70% and 30% levels. When the BPSPX moved higher during the October rally the BPSPX was on a double-whammy buy signal but that started to falter the second week of November when price lost the 70% level. Then when the BPSPX fell through 66.20 that was a six percentage point reversal off the peak top locking in a double-whammy sell signal. The rest is history. Stocks tumbled lower.

The 30% on the bottom side is just as important as 70% on the top side. As the BPSPX crumbles lower and violates 30% and lower, there is likely a base forming and stocks will be contemplating a recovery rally in the near future. The BPSPX prints a near-term bottom at 23.3. Thus, adding six percentage points is 29.3. If the BPSPX moves above 29.3 that will be a market buy signal and if the BPSPX then moves above 30% that will be a double-whammy buy signal. For now, the stock market bears maintain pressure.

Bears must keep the BPSPX at 29.3 or lower. Bulls will begin creating a substantive recovery rally in stocks if the BPSPX moves above 29.3 then above 30. Who will win? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:47 PM EST: Whoa. That is interesting. The minute the above was posted the BPSPX is now printing 29.40; the bulls may be making a move. Keep a close eye on it.

Note Added 8:24 AM EST Tuesday Morning, 1/26/16: Interestingly, the BPSPX finishes at 29.40 which is an initial market buy signal despite all the selling. The Dow dumps over 200 points as the Monday session played out. Watch the 30% level closely and if bearish the markets, you need the BPSPX back under 29.30 pronto, and definitely by the closing bell, otherwise, the bulls will likely keep building higher and begin the long-awaited relief rally; if 30 is taken out to the upside stocks will start catapulting higher as shorts cover creating rocket fuel.

UPS United Parcel Service Weekly Chart 20/50 MA Cross Holding on to Cyclical Bull Market

Another key cyclical market signal is the UPS 20/50-week MA cross. If the 20-week MA is above the 50-week MA for global bellwether United Parcel Service, the economy is in great shape, the wine is flowing like water and shipping activity is robust. Parts are shipped to manufacturers and business contracts fly to counter parties in overnight bundles. Busienss is good. Stocks typically trend higher.

But the party was over in May of last year when the 20 MA stabbed down through the 50 MA ushering in a cyclical bear market pattern. The central bankers are powerful, however, so more dovish jawmoning and easy money stimulus from the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBOC creates more stock market joy and UPS catapults higher as investors expect shipping activity to pick up especially into the holiday season. That did not happen.

Price is collapsing but note that the 20-week MA remains above the 50 signaling bullish markets ahead so the bulls must be shown respect. If the 20 MA falls back under the 50 MA, it is over for stocks. The chart above can be played against the previous NYA 40-week MA cross chart that is currently bearish. For intermediate and long term investors, you want to see the NYA recover above the 40-week MA to prove that a solid multi-week perhaps month rally is in progress and on tap ahead for stocks. If you are bearish, you want to see the 20 stab down through the 50 in the UPS chart above which will signal market carnage ahead.

Pay attention to the 20/50 cross described above for UPS over the next three weeks since it is going to play a key role in determining the overall market direction forward. There is likely a battle on tap over the coming days and couple weeks and the winner will be important.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40 MA Cross Cyclical Bear Market

The NYA 40-week MA negative cross occurs in June-July signaling bearish markets for the weeks and months ahead as Keystone highlighted at the time and turned out to be a prescient call on the broad market. Stocks crashed in August. A cyclical bull market was in place with price above the 40-week MA from 2013 into early 2014. Price teased a drop through this important 40-week moving average in early 2014 but instead price spiked higher and never looked back rallying for the next 16 months into the May 2015 high.

Keystone described the fits and starts from late 2014 into early 2015 as price danced on each side of the 40-week MA. The price bounces off the low points in the chart are due to central banker's stepping in to save the day with stimulus. The red rising wedge pattern (bearish) forms which sounds the death trumpet for the NYA along with negative divergence and overbot conditions; price collapses off the peak.

The NYA committed to the downside last summer when price lost the 40-week MA signaling bearish markets for the weeks and months ahead. The stock market remains in a cyclical bear pattern until the NYA moves above the 40-week MA. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

PSI Portugal Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the PSI Index is in a cyclical bear market since August 2015. The PSI peaked at 7800-ish in March 2014, and a -10% correction is 7020 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 6240. Prices collapse far below these targets but recovers into the April 2015 top at 6350. A -10% correction from 6350 is 5715 and a -20% bear market from 6350 is 5080. Portugal is a very ill market. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key PSI Index, the best measure of Portuguese stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

IBEX Bolsa de Madrid Spain Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the IBEX Index is in a cyclical bear market since September 2015. The IBEX peaked at 11900-ish in April 2015, and a -10% correction is 10710 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 9520. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key IBEX, the Bolsa de Madrid Index, the best measure of Spanish stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

MIB Italy Milan Index Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the MIB Index is in a cyclical bear market since September 2015. The MIB peaked at 24200-ish in July 2015, and a -10% correction is 21780 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 19360. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key MIB, the Milan Index, the best measure of Italian stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

FTSE London Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the UK FTSE Index is in a cyclical bear market since August 2015. The FTSE peaked at 7130-ish in April 2015, and a -10% correction is 6417 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 5704. Price tapped on the 5700 level last week. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key FTSE Index, the measure of UK stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CAC France Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the France CAC Index is in a cyclical bear market since August 2015. The CAC peaked at 5290-ish in April-May 2015, and a -10% correction is 4761 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 4232. The CAC dropped into a cyclical bear market in late 2014 but by early 2015 the 150-day MA was sloping higher again and the cyclical bull continued. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key CAC, the best measure of France's stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

DAX Germany Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the German DAX Index is in a cyclical bear market since August 2015. The DAX peaked at 12400-ish in April 2015, and a -10% correction is 11160 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 9920. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key DAX, the best measure of Germany's stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. The EWG ETF is used as a trading vehicle for the DAX. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BSE India Bombay Sensex Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Sensex Index is in a cyclical bear market since June-August 2015. The BSE peaked at 30,000-ish in March 2015, and a -10% correction is 27000 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 24000. Price tapped on 24K last week. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key BSE, the Sensex Index, the best measure of India's stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

HSI Hang Seng Index Hong Kong Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Hang Seng Index is in a cyclical bear market since August. The HSI peaked at 28600-ish in April 2015, and a -10% correction is 25740 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 22880. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key HSI, the Hang Seng Index, the Hong Kong (Chinese) stocks, remain in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SSEC Shanghai Index Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Shanghai Index is in a cyclical bear market since August. The SSEC peaked at 5200-ish in June 2015, and a -10% correction is 4680 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 4160. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key SSEC, the Shanghai Index, the best measure of Chinese stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

KOSPI South Korea Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the KOSPI Index is in a cyclical bear market since August. The KOSPI peaked at 2190-ish in April 2015, nine months ago, and a -10% correction is 1971 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 1752. South Korea activity is very interesting showing how the index is oscillating between cyclical bull and cyclical bear patterns. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key KOSPI Index, the bestm easure of South Korean stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPASX200 Australia ASX 200 Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the ASX 200 Index is in a cyclical bear market since August. The SPASX200 peaked at 6000 in March-May 2015 and a -10% correction is 5400 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 4800. Price tapped on 4800 last week. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key ASX 200 Index, the SPASX200, Australia's benchmark stock index, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

NIKK Nikkei Index Daily Chart Slips into Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Nikkei Index slips into a cyclical bear this year much like the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ). The Nikkei peaked at 20953 in June 2015 and a -10% correction is 18858 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 16762. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key NIKK index, the Nikkei Index, the broad measure of Japan's stock market, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TRAN Dow Jones Transportation Average Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is in a cyclical bear market since June 2015. The Dow Transports peaked at 9413 on 11/28/14 over 14 months ago and a -10% correction is 8472 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 7530. These levels are toast. From a  Dow Theory perspective, the Dow Transports keep printing lower lows and lower highs and ditto the Dow Industrials. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key TRAN index, the Dow Transports, the trannies, the important bellwether for the global economy, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. The IYT tracks the Dow Transports and is used as a trading vehicle for those playing this sector. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Russell 2000 Index is in a cyclical bear market since August. The 150-day MA bounced around in the back half of 2014 threatening a cyclical bear market, especially for a couple weeks in October 2014, but then the central bankers colluded to create a bottom in stocks and global markets ran higher the RUT moving higher into summer 2015. The central bankers are the market.


The Russell 2000 small caps peaked at 1296 in June 2015 and a -10% correction is 1166 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 1037. The -20% threshold was violated last week.  Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key RUT index, the Russell 2000, representing the small cap speculative stocks and a broader market view, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart Slips into Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Nasdaq Composite is in a cyclical bear market starting only 3 weeks ago as then new year begins. Look at that battle with a flat 150-day MA for 5 months before the bears win out. The COMPQ peaked at 5232 in July 2015 and a -10% correction is 4709 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 4186. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key COMPQ index, the Nasdaq Composite, the index most reflective of tech and biotech stocks and the high-flying growth stocks, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Industrials Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.


Thus, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is in a cyclical bear market since August. The Dow peaked at 18351 in May 2015 and a -10% correction is 16516 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 14681. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key INDU index, the Dow Industrials, the Dirty Thirty, the index most important to the general public since it is broadcast by the main stream media, the blue-chip dividend index, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Cyclical Bear Market

There is lots of talk about bear markets in the media this year as stocks tumble lower. From a peak in an index or stock, the media refers to a -10% move lower as a "correction" and a -20% move lower is dubbed a "bear market." There is nothing official about these designations in fact you will be hard-pressed to find the guidelines called out anywhere in economics or trading literature. The percentage designations are not a good gauge of whether an index, sector or stock is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market; take those price levels with a grain of salt. Keystone highlights these -10% and -20% levels as they occur since the main stream business media makes a big deal of the levels.

A far more useful tool in distinguishing an ongoing cyclical (days, weeks, months) bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the 150-day MA slope. If the 150-day moving average is sloping higher than the stock is in a cyclical bull market uptrend. If the 150-day MA is sloping downward, negatively, the stock is in a cyclical bear market pattern. The beauty of moving averages is that they smooth out the erratic price action especially in times of market inflection points and maximum chaos.

Thus, the S&P 500 is in a cyclical bear market since August. The SPX peaked at 2135 in May 2015 and a -10% correction is 1921 and a -20% bear market (by the media's metrics) is 1708. Using the more important 150-day MA guideline, the key benchmark SPX, the S&P 500, the most important index in trading, remains in a bear market (for days, weeks perhaps months ahead) until the 150-day MA slopes upwards again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, January 18, 2016

SPASX200 Australia ASX 200 Daily Chart Near -20% Bear Market

Australia's ASX 200 is tumbling into a bear market. Price formed a quadruple-top at the 6000 level so a -20% move off the top is 4800. The SPASX200 drops 34 points today, -0.7%, to 4858 (the chart is  not yet updated) shown by the purple dot. The LOD is 4804 a hair from the 4800 bear market but close enough for government work. The blue line shows the -10% correction territory off the peak at 5400 and the red line shows the -20% bear market off the springtime peaks at 6000. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NIKK Nikkei Index Daily Chart -20% Bear Market in Japan

The Nikkei Index tumbles into a bear market. Price formed a triple-top at the 20950-ish level so a -20% move off the top is a loss of 4190 points to 16760. The NIKK drops 192 points today, -1.1%, to 16956 (the chart is  not yet updated) shown by the purple dot. Japan is in a bear market despite years of BOJ money printing. The blue line shows the -10% correction territory off the peak and the red line shows the -20% bear market off the summertime peaks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.