Thursday, April 30, 2015

DAX Germany Daily Chart H&S Pattern Downward-Sloping Channel

The DAX was bludgeoned -3.2% on Wednesday in a mini-crash. Price lost the H&S (head and shoulders) neckline at 11700. The head is at 12400 which is a 700 difference, thus the downside target is 11000 (11700-700) which lines up with horizontal price support from February.

Price may want to back kiss the neck line at 11.7K in the near-term. The stochastics, MACD line and histogram each would prefer to see price come back down for a lower low after any bounce occurs. And any bounce would likely target the neckline for the back test. The blue channel is in play.The ADX shows the strong uptrend in price ended in mid-April (the black line fell under 25-ish). The ADX stumbles sideways and is starting to perk up as the DAX drops. If the ADX moves above 25 that will confirm that the price move lower through the blue channel is a strong trend lower that will continue. For now the jury is out.

Price bounced off the horizontal support from early March at 11.4K-ish. The expectation is for the H&S to play out moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels

The SPX played around to and fro at the strong 2104 support/resistance and then fell through. This set up the move to test support at 2091 which occurred after this morning's bell. Price bounced but in the afternoon 2091 gave way. The 50-day MA is 2090 so it makes sense that this level at 2090-2091 put up a fight. The SPX fell through the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2095 which signals bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Bulls will need SPX above 2095 as quick as possible.

April ended today so the monthly charts have all received new data points. April began at 2068 and price finished 18 points above on the month. May, tomorrow, begins at 2086. The previous week's low is 2084 a key level that would signal trouble ahead if it fails. The 2081 is strong support followed by 2076 then 2067. Bulls need to punch above the 2094-2097 resistance gauntlet to prove they got game.

2111
2110
2108
2107
2105
2104
2103
2101
2100
2099
2097
2096.62 (20-day MA)
2094.96 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2090.28 (50-day MA)
2089
2085.51 May Begins Here
2084.11 Previous Week’s Low
2082
2081
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2072.16 (20-week MA)
2072
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069
2068.05 (100-day MA)
2067.89 April Begins Here
2067
2065
2063
2061
2058.90 Trading for 2015 Begins Here
2057
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2054
2052
2050

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The VIX teases the critical 200-day MA intraday at 15.22 and retreats. The 200-day MA is a great bull-bear signal for markets so the bulls are still in control under the 200-day. Bears need to move the VIX above 15.22 to prove they mean business

This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, April 27, 2015

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side this afternoon at SPX 2109. Watch XLF 24.19 a key bull-bear line in the sand and price sits directly at this value. As financials go, so goes the markets. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Saturday, April 25, 2015

SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, price is under the 8 MA which will curl it downwards for a potential negative cross. Bears got nothing until they receive the negative 8/34 cross. The bears were in great shape last weekend with the 8 MA under the 34 MA but the Chinese pumped global stock markets higher with the bank triple R cuts last Sunday. On Monday, 4/20/15, stocks gapped higher and the central bankers save the day again as they always do. The red lines highlight the negative divergence that creates the initial spank down off the top.

The expectation is for a move lower for stocks going forward especially since the CPC put/call at 0.76 indicates uber complacency and a market top at hand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 1-Hour Chart 200 EMA Cross Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The bears were in good shape last weekend with the SPX under the critical 200 EMA signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, the Chinese cut the bank triple R rates to goose the stock market and the bears were punched in the face to begin last week's trading on 4/20/15. The central bankers are the market. The SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2091.44 signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead.

The red lines, however, indicate negative divergence across all indicators and the stochastics are overbot both wanting price to selloff. The CPC is down to 0.76 signaling uber complacent markets so a market top is at hand. The prior SPX 2-hour chart leaves the door open for a couple more hours of upside so if that occurs the purple path should play out with price printing once more in the apex of the rising wedge before rolling over. The blue path is the scenario where price simply begins selling off from here.

Watch the MACD cross, currently positive favoring bulls. If the MACD cross turns negative you will know that the bears are driving the bus going forward. As markets selloff, the bears got nothing unless they push price under the 200 EMA at 2091. When price approaches 2091 a critical bounce or die decision will occur determining the fate of markets going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart Overbot Negative Divergence

The SPX 2-hour chart is overbot with negative divergence (red lines). The MACD line is too close to call (is it flat or sloping higher or sloping lower over the last couple hours?) so the SPX may play around for another 1 to 4 hours before rolling over. The upper standard deviation band is at 2123 so if price does begin the week on the upside at 2118-2124 it is likely creating a very good short opportunity for the near-term. The CPC put/call ratio drops to 0.76 indicating that a market top is at hand (see previous chart). The expectation is for a pull back to occur and it should begin at anytime in the trading hours ahead. As always, the central bankers are the market, and the wild card, so if they decide to goose stocks that will temporarily create more lift before the selling begins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence

The monthly charts will receive new prints on Thursday for the EOM. April began at 2068 so the month is positive with four days remaining. Keystone has posted this chart over the last year providing the play-by-play waiting for the multi-year top to print. Note how price fell out of the rising wedge last month (March) but now recovers in April to back kiss the wedge trend line from the underside for a bounce or die decision.

The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators (bearish). It took a long time for the chart to set up for the bears. The MACD cross is negative. If April finishes here or higher the indicators should remain negatively diverged pointing towards a weak May ahead. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. The collapses from rising wedge patterns can be quite dramatic.

The 18-year cycle is the most reliable cycle with a secular bull from 1982 to 2000 and markets are currently in a secular bear market from 2000-2018. It is normal to have strong cyclical rallies inside secular bears. The chart set-up hints that the bears will finally begin growling again to finish off the secular pattern into 2018. It would not be surprising to see the stock market down say 3 of the next 4 years. The chart can be revisited after April's print is finalized later in the week ahead. The expectation is for a multi-year top to occur now; it is actually a bit surprising to see the SPX print a new record high last week as the indicators are already spent showing a lack of oomph available moving forward.

The Nasdaq monthly chart is similar except for the MACD continuing to slope slightly higher which indicates that the tech stocks may need a couple more months to officially top out for a multi-year top and this juice in tech stocks helps to elevate the SPX and Dow which are wanting to simply call it quits to the six-year rally going forward. The broad stock market is expected to top out at current levels with all indexes peaking and rolling over now through July. The market bears need a little more patience but their long multi-year wait for weaker markets for the weeks, months and likely a year or three ahead is very near.

Pay attention to the 10-month and 12-month MA's at 2033 and 2018, respectively, since these levels signal the official end to the six-year rally. The 10-month MA is an early warning signal that the old-time traders use and many algorithms, including the Keybot the Quant algorithm, Keystone's proprietary algo, program the 10-month MA into the computer models. Markets go off a cliff when the 12-month MA fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence

The SPX weekly chart trucks higher with a rising wedge pattern (bearish), overbot stochastics and negative divergence (red lines). The green lines for the RSI, stochastics and money flow, however, show the momentum over the last month with the bulls wanting to squeeze out a little more upside juice. Overall, in the multi-week and multi-month time frames price is running out of oomph to move higher. A rupture of the lower red trend line at 2100-ish will create downside momo.

The 20-week MA is 2068 the same level as where April began with only four days remaining in the month. This level has to be respected as a possibility for the week ahead. Watch the MACD cross, currently negative, to see if the bulls can squeeze out anymore upside juice, or not.

The blue circles show the volume behavior over the last few months. The new record price highs come with far less volume than mid-March when the same price levels were explored. A strong market should have easily surpassed the prior volume in March. Ditto the strong volume behavior in December at highs near 2100-ish. Price keeps moving to new highs above 2090 but each time the volume weakens rather than strengthens hinting at a lack of conviction.

Note the strongest volume candlestick for the selling event last October. This is when the global central bankers colluded to stick-save the markets and prevent a crash. It is prudent to expect price to revisit the 1825-1910 area to see how volume stacks up against the October candlestick.

The near-term momo (green lines) may allow the bulls to play around in the apex of the rising wedge (after a near-term selloff occurs due to the uber complacency with the CPC put/call) but the expectation is for price to roll over to the downside moving forward. Price is extending above the moving averages which will create a mean reversion to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Moving Average Ribbon Mean Reversion Upper Band Violation Negative Divergence Rising Wedge Overbot

There is lots going on for the spaghetti chart above. First, the pink dots show the extension of the moving averages (price above the 20-day MA at 2089.56 above the 50-day MA at 2089.67 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200) where a top occurs and a mean reversion lower is required. Currently, the 20-day MA is actually a hair under the 50-day by pennies but this chart on Monday will send the 20-day above due to the price momentum late last week.

Price is tagging the upper standard deviation band which indicates a near-term top is at hand. The extreme market complacency indicated by the CPC put/call ratio at 0.76 signals a market top at any time any day forward so if price further tags the upper band at 2123 that is likely a gift for the short side with prices expected to fall perhaps dramatically.

With the new all-time record highs occurring with price on Friday, the red lines show negative divergence across all indicators in the multi-week and multi-month time frames (bearish). Over the last few days, however, the green lines for the MACD, stochastics and money flow show momentum that may permit the bulls to squeeze out one or two days more of upside juice. The stochastics are overbot.

Despite all the euphoria at the tail end of last week with the new record highs, volume could not surpass the selling volume from one week ago in the sub SPX 2104 price candlestick. Therefore, it is prudent to expect price to drop to retest this area under 2104. Note the high volume print in mid-March due to central banker pumping with price in the 2090-2115 range. The SPX returns to this level last Wednesday through Friday but none of the three days even come close to that prior volume strength. The price move higher lacks conviction.

The red lines show a rising wedge pattern which is bearish and a failure at the 2090-ish level would indicate trouble ahead for markets. Continuing the red rising wedge into the future targets August as the apex and the bulls may be able to hold on for 2 to 4 months if they can hold the 2090-ish level during the expected pending selloff.  Factoring in the above mumbo-jumbo and the low CPC put/call ratio, a bearish strategy going forward is prudent. The VIX is 12.29 showing that traders are not bringing on protection since no one expects a a market pull back to occur and that is when a pull back occurs. Get protection and bring on shorts. Ditch any longs you do not plan to hold for several years. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 4/27/15

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 4/27/15. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2120.92 on 4/24/15 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2117.69 on 4/24/15. The low for this year is 1980.90 which identifies the starting point of the huge February rally a stick-save created by the global central bankers.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 2118, the bulls only need three points, to touch the 2121 handle and bingo, a multi-handle upside acceleration will occur into the mid 2120’s. Bears need to push under 2113 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2114-2120 is sideways action to begin the week. The SPX began the year at 2059 so stocks are positive on the year up +2.9%. April began at 2068 so the month is currently positive with four trading days remaining; Thursday, 4/30/15 is EOM (end of month).

The bulls are punching out new highs fueled by the collusion of the global central bankers. The ECB is juicing the markets with QE (quantitative easing). The Federal Reserve will likely not announce the first rate hike until September, perhaps not until 2016, so the easy money party continues. Last week, China announced the triple R cut for banks which blew the market bears out of the water before the Monday bell could ring to begin the week. Lower triple R’s permit the Chinese banks to lend more which stimulates the economy and sends stocks higher. The market bulls simply need 2121 and higher and the party continues.

On the lower side, the market bears must push down through the strong 2117 support and then through Friday’s low at 2113 to get their mojo back. The failure at 2113 will immediately test the strong 2110 support for a bounce or die decision. If 2110 ruptures, price will next target 2104 S. Note the strong support gauntlet at 2089-2091. Bears can start to create damage if this area fails.

There are four days remaining in April which began at 2068 and note the support cluster at 2065-2068. Considering the ominous forecast for stocks with the low CPCE put/call ratio (see previous chart), a price move down to 2065-2068 is a realistic possibility for the week ahead and this lower price level may serve as a magnet for the SPX during the middle and late week of trading. Consumer Confidence hits on Tuesday and the FOMC Announcements and GDP is out on Wednesday so there is high drama ahead.

Looking at the big picture the strongest S/R is 2121, 2120, 2118, 2117, 2110, 2104, 2091, 2081, 2076, 2067, 2061, 2046, 2040, 2038, 2032, 2030, 2023, 2019, 2011, 2002-2003, 1997-1998, 1993, 1988, 1985-1986 and 1982. The SPX moves choppy sideways through 1990-2120 for the last six months with price now at the top of the range. Stocks will slide lower if 2110 fails. The situation will grow bleaker if 2104 fails. Markets will begin deteriorating dramatically if 2089-2091 fails and market mayhem will begin if 2065-2068 fails.

2121 (4/24/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2120.92)
2120.92 Previous Week’s High
2120.92 Friday HOD
2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (4/24/15 All-Time Closing High: 2117.69)
2117.69 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)
2115
2113
2112.80 Friday LOD
2111
2110
2108
2107
2105
2104
2103
2101
2100
2099
2097
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2091.44 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2089.67 (50-day MA)
2089.56 (20-day MA)
2089
2084.11 Previous Week’s Low
2082
2081
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2072
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069
2068.00 (20-week MA)
2067.89 April Begins Here
2067
2066.55 (100-day MA)
2065
2063
2061
2058.90 Trading for 2015 Begins Here
2057
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2054
2052
2050
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2041
2040
2039.63 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2038
2034
2033.59 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
2032
2030
2024
2023.35 (200-day MA)
2023
2021
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2018.31 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
2018
2016
2014
2012
2011.85 (50-week MA)
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2009
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2004
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1995
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low for 2015: 1992.67)
1992
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1983
1982
1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low for 2015: 1980.90)
1979
1978
1976
1973
1970
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1965
1964
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1962
1961
1960
1958

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Signals Significant Market Top At Hand

The drama with the put/call ratio continues. Complacency is rampant. Traders are completely fearless buying any stock long without any fear or worry. The global central bankers are acting in collusion to keep stock markets elevated to make the rich, that own stocks, wealthier. The Federal Reserve, democrat and republican politicians, upper middle class and elite, company CEO's and business executives are an incestuous club and the common American is the bag holder. The ECB quantitative easing (QE) program is the latest player in the easy money party game a six-year orgy so obscene that Caligula would blush.

For a detailed description of the current complacency and market euphoria reference Keystone the Scribe's daily chronology (a link is in the right margin). Scroll down to the end of Friday's narrative and a couple paragraphs explain the ongoing market fearlessness which typically occurs at market tops. Everyone is giddy drinking wine each day and buying stocks with total disregard for price or valuation.

Keystone first highlighted the market complacency with the 4/15/15 low print (eight trading days ago). As Keystone has noted over the years, the low prints in the CPC and CPCE put/calls indicate a market top either right away or within a few days time. This time around is a little more tricky with a triple bottom in the CPC occurring over the last several days. The first low print resulted in the SPX dropping from 2113 to 2072. Surprisingly the bulls recovered very quickly; typically you would expect a bit more selling. China lowered the triple R requirements last Sunday, 4/19/15, which provided jet fuel for global stock markets all week long. The central bankers are the market.

The market euphoria continues with the middle low print at 0.79 on 4/20/15 (last Monday) warning of another market top. A small pull back occurs from SPX 2110 to 2090 only 20 handles and much of the move is intraday action so if you walked away from the computer for a cup of coffee or to visit the can you missed the move. The party atmosphere continues during the week and the Nasdaq explodes higher on Friday due to the joyous earnings with AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and SBUX. It is this euphoric party atmosphere that dumps the CPCE to the 0.76 low a low not seen since December four months ago. That prior low in late December identified the market top to begin the year where the SPX dropped from 2095 to 1991 a downward move of 104 handles over five days (that was a quick flush).

The CPCE put/call ratio is at 0.60 and did not sink to new lows to match the CPC above, thus, the bulls may be able to pull off another day or two of upside juice where the CPCE will drop lower although this is not absolutely necessary. The triple lows in the CPC is extremely ominous.

If you did not buy puts for protection, or inverse ETF's such as SH, SDS, DOG, DXD, QID, and TWM, or short stocks and indexes, or exit your long positions, you made a mistake. If markets do drift higher early in the new week of trading consider it a gift and immediately implement your bearish strategy going forward. Markets are poised to sell off beginning any day forward and a reasonable expectation is for the SPX to drop from 40 to 100 handles as April finishes and early to mid-May occurs. The stock market is expected to sell off until the CPC prints above 1.20 to show that sufficient fear has returned to create a near-term market bottom.

As mentioned in the prior CPC message, scaling into the short side is prudent and despite the run-up in the indexes with the SPX back above 2100 and now printing new all-time record highs above 2120, continue scaling into the short side since the market top is nigh. Strap yourself in for a wild ride ahead to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite 5-Minute Chart New All-Time Record Closing High 5092.08

The Nasdaq prints a new all-time record closing high at 5092.08 besting the prior day's all-time record closing high at 5056.06. The all-time record intraday high remains at 5132.52 from 3/10/00 and is not yet violated. The COMPQ tagged 5100 in yesterday's trading only 32 points from the highest print in Nasdaq history during the dotcom bubble. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 3-Minute Chart New All-Time Record Intraday High 2120.92 and Closing High 2117.69

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 2120.92 at 12:33 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/25, and new all-time closing high at 2117.69. The prior records are 2120.49 from the day before (Thursday, 4/23/15) and 2117.39 from early March, respectively. The new intraday high bests the prior day by 43 cents and the new closing high beats the prior record by 30 pennies. The central bankers are powerful. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Friday, April 24, 2015

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart New All-Time Record Highs

The NYA prints a new all-time record high at 11221.14 and new all-time closing high at 11191.48. The NYA 40-week MA is a key cyclical market signal now at 10851. Price is clearly above maintaining the cyclical bull market ongoing for years. The market bears had been making headway to the downside over the last few months but the global central banker collusion is far too powerful. The ECB is currently goosing the markets with easy money creating the move higher with the NYA not looking back after moving above the 40-week MA. A sustainable long-term cyclical bear market (weeks and months) will begin when the NYA drops below the 40-week MA. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite 2-Minute Chart New All-Time Record Closing High

The COMPQ has been printing multi-year highs for the last three years slowly creeping back to the dotcom bubble high above 5K. After 15 years, the Nasdaq prints a new all-time record closing high at 5056.06 besting the prior record at 5048.62 at 3/10/00. It took the COMPQ 3802 trading days to return to the dotcom bubble closing high. The all-time record intraday high remains at 5132.52 from 3/10/00 and is not yet violated. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 One-Minute Chart New All-Time Record Intraday High 2120.49

The SPX hits another milestone today printing a new all-time record high at 2120.49. The SPX prints above 2120 for the first time in history at 3:15 PM EST on 4/23/15. The prior record all-time high was 2119.59 from late February. The all-time closing high remains at 2117.39 from early March. The central banker liquidity and higher move in oil outweighs weak homebuilders and semiconductors. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, April 20, 2015

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Signals Market Top

The roller coaster ride continues. One day up one day down; is tomorrow the bear's turn again? The TRIN chart posted on the weekend wanted a quickie relief rally due to the 4.00 number which occurred today. For the CPC above, you typically want to see a 1.20 or higher to know that you have a firm stock market bottom to go long. Today's rally occurs from a 1.13 number not exactly a ringing endorsement that a proper bottom was placed. Further, instead of the CPC dropping just a smidge say to the 0.95-1.10 area, it plummets directly back to pure complacency territory at 0.79.

Who can blame traders for remaining non-stop complacent buying stocks without any worry or fear? The central bankers are the market. The PBOC (China's central bank) goosed the US and European indexes today with the triple R cut to their banks. The global central bankers will send stocks higher forever to make the wealthy, that own stocks, richer, so why worry? It's like having a rich uncle that always bails you out. There is never any reason to change your behavior. Uncle Sam will be there with the dough to beat the rap.

The low CPC 0.79 identifies complacency and another near-term market top. The stock market may be getting shaky from all the whipsaw behavior. Watch your wallet. Markets should place another top any day forward and selloff until the CPC moves above 1.20. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's algorithm, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the bull side at SPX 2096 after this morning's opening bell. The erratic choppy sideways behavior continues this year. As always, watch for a potential whipsaw back to the short side. Pay attention to copper; it will pivot overnight and influence broad market direction; of course positive copper will lead to higher stocks tomorrow and negative copper will lead to market weakness. More information is found on Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross

The bulls and bears continue the sideways battle this year. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is 2084.62 moving flat sideways. The SPX is below which signals bearish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, the S&P futures are up +12 as the week is set to begin trading shortly. This would send the SPX above 2090 and above the 200 EMA signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead.

The battle at 200 EMA will likely continue all day long so pay close attention; it is extremely important which side price favors since it charts the path ahead. As the SPX Support, Resistance and Moving Averages missive highlights on the weekend, 2091 is very strong resistance. The bears need to hold 2091, otherwise, price will set its sights on 2099 R. A cluster of S/R exists at 2084-2085 including the 200 EMA above, the 50-day MA at 2085 and 20-day MA at 2084 so this level carries serious clout. Bulls win big above 2085. Bears win big under 2084. The stage is set for today's drama.

The indicators are positively diverged except for the MACD line that would like to see another lower low. The MACD line remains sloping lower on the 2-hour chart as well. The TRIN pegged 4.00 on Friday during the market selling signaling a need for a relief rally move which appears on tap. Markets may recover today for a few hours, or into tomorrow but the door remains open for lower lows in price. Watch the fight for the 2084-2085 line in the sand. Bulls will be on easy street if the 2091 and 2099 resistance levels give way to the upside. Bears need to hold 2091 and then push price under the critical 2084-2085 level. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:04 AM: The bulls rocket higher today reversing Friday's losses. The SPX launched higher out of the gate and closes at 2100 well above the 200 EMA at 2086 signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Bears need the SPX under 2086 or they got nothing. Price ran up through the strong 2091 R so it targeted 2099. Price ran up through 2099 R so it targeted 2104 R. Price HOD is 2103.94 hitting its head on the 2104 resistance and receiving a slap down. Thus, price is playing around with 2104 resistance and 2099 support. Bulls win above 2104. Bears win below 2099.

Sunday, April 19, 2015

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 4/20/15

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 3/16/15. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2119.59 on 2/25/15 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2117.39 on 3/2/15. The low for this year is 1980.90 which identifies the starting point of the huge February rally.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 2081.18, the bulls need to recover all of Friday’s losses pushing above 2102 to get their mojo back and accelerate the upside. Bears need to push under 2072 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2073-2101 is sideways action to begin the week. The SPX began the year at 2059 so stocks are slightly positive on the year up +1.1%. April began at 2068 so the month is currently a hair positive up +0.4% with nine trading days remaining.

The 2084-2085 creates strong overhead resistance as shown by the moving averages. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2085 is a critical near-term bull-bear signal. Bears win big if the SPX remains under 2085. Bulls win big above 2085. Pay close attention to the 20-day MA at 2084 and 50-day MA at 2085. Bears are in great shape if price stays under these two moving averages. Bulls will rule above these two MA's. Watch the 20/50 cross; the 20-day is under the 50-day MA which gives the market bears the upper hand. Bulls will not confirm upside mojo until they push the 20-day MA back above the 50-day MA.

On the lower side, a breach of the very strong 2076 support will lead to an immediate test of 2071-2073 for a bounce or die decision. A failure at 2071-2073 will result in an immediate flush to the 2065-2067 support gauntlet where another bounce or die decision would occur. A battle at 2067-2068 will determine if April is an up or down month.

For Monday, if bullish you want SPX above 2085 to begin an upside party celebration that will tag 2091 in quick order. If 2091 gives way price will jump to 2099. If bearish, you want 2076 to fail, then 2072 since price will then be in the 2060’s in a heartbeat.

Looking at the big picture the strongest S/R is 2120, 2118, 2110, 2108, 2104, 2099, 2091, 2081, 2076, 2067, 2061, 2046, 2040, 2038, 2032, 2030, 2023, 2019, 2011, 2002-2003, 1997-1998, 1993, 1988, 1985-1986 and 1982. The SPX moves choppy sideways through the 2000-2100 range for the last six months. The uber strong S/R levels in this range are 2076, 2067 and 2040. Pay attention to the price moves at these three important levels. Bulls are winning big above 2076 while bears will rule under 2040.

2120 (2/25/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (3/2/15 All-Time Closing High: 2117.39)
2115
2114
2111.91 Previous Week’s High
2111
2110
2108
2105
2104
2102.58 Friday HOD
2101
2100
2099
2097
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2089
2084.98 (50-day MA)
2084.62 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2083.81 (20-day MA)
2082
2081.18 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2081
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2072.37 Friday LOD
2072.37 Previous Week’s Low
2072
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069
2067.89 April Begins Here
2067
2065.88 (20-week MA)
2065
2064.59 (100-day MA)
2063
2061
2058.90 Trading for 2015 Begins Here
2057
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2054
2052
2050
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2041
2040
2038
2035.93 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2034
2032
2030
2029.94 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
2024
2023
2021
2020.04 (200-day MA)
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2018
2016
2015.27 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
2014
2012
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2009
2007.07 (50-week MA)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2004
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1995
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low for 2015: 1992.67)
1992
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1983
1982
1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low for 2015: 1980.90)
1979
1978
1976
1973
1970
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1965
1964
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1962
1961
1960
1958
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1949
1947
1946
1942
1940

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Choppy Sideways Year Continues

The SPX starts the year at 2059 (pink line). The sawtooth, choppy sideways pattern continues for the last five months chewing up and spitting out bulls and bears alike. The SPX is in the same place as early December, at 2080-ish, but has traveled a distance of 1280 points in that time frame, over 60% of its entire point range! That is sideways choppiness. Price moves through the 2000-2100 range for nearly six months; one-half year; a 100-point range.

In January, the SPX was negative on the year then the global central banker pump in February saved the day. The SPX turned positive on the year in February and is remaining positive despite three slips under in March and April. The S&P 500 is 2081, up a paltry 22 points this year, +1.1%, after nearly four months of drama. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

The previous CPCE chart signaled a market top coming in a few days. As always, each one is a little different. The low 4/6/15 print at 0.50 signaled uber complacency and traders buying stocks on the long side without any fear or worry. Stocks sold off from SPX 2090 to 2075 intraday but if you blinked you missed it. Stocks then traveled higher continuing to place the near-term top required by the low put/call number. The CPCE only moves moderately higher at that 0.60-ish area then comes back down for another uber low reading at 0.55. With this low reading the prior chart and analysis can simply be repeated. The uber complacency signals a top occurring any day forward and in three days the top was in. 

The SPX peaks at 2110-ish and drops to 2072 during the back-half of last week; 38 handles. Okay, big deal, what next? The CPCE is up to 0.74 not yet at the 0.80 and higher level where the near term stock market bottoms have printed recently (green circles). Thus, the expectation is further selling until the negativity and fear reaches a point where a firm near-term bottom can occur (CPCE above 0.80). The prior TRIN chart spiked to a huge 4.00 which says a relief rally should occur quickly. Thus, taking the two tools (TRIN and CPCE) and combining them, markets may rally early to middle next week, to bring the TRIN back down from its loftiness, this would be in concert with the CPCE dropping back down to say 0.65 in another zig-zag move. Then the expectation would be for market selling to reinitiate and continue until the fear and panic is firmly displayed above CPCE 0.80 and higher (which will identify a market bottom).

Bring up the CPC put/call chart and you will see its uber low print under 0.80 on 4/15/15 which signaled excessive trader complacency and marked the exact top in the stock market on 4/15/15. The CPC is up to 1.12 and typically a 1.20 or higher is needed to signal excessive bearishness and identify a near-term market bottom; very similar to the CPCE set-up explained above. The stock market may need to drift lower over the next week or two (after a quickie rally due to the high TRIN) until the CPC moves above 1.20 to signal a firm stock market bottom. If the CPCE prints above 0.80 and CPC above 1.20 on Monday or any day forward you will know a firm rally is at hand and set to begin or already started. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:15 PM on Monday evening, 4/20/15: The relief rally desired by the uber high TRIN occurs right away today, Monday, 4/20/15, with stocks recovering most of Friday's losses. Interestingly, the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios plummet and are signaling complacency again. CPC is 0.79. The CPCE drops to 0.56. Markets are preparing to print another near-term top any day forward. The markets continue the choppy sideways behavior this year.