Monday, June 24, 2013

Keystone's Midday Market Action 6/24/13

Semiconductors broke down today adding bear fuel. Watch the SOX 457 level, now well under at 450. The bears next need to push down through NYA 8786 to receive additional bear fuel that would light the path to the SPX 1550's. NYA is now at 8847 about 60 points above in the bull camp. The VIX and TRIN are steadily dropping from the peaks after the open today so this allows the broad indexes to recover off the lows. TRIN is 1.09 and VIX is 19.39. If these two begin to creep upwards, equities will leak lower again.

Note Added 2:17 PM:  TRIN is 0.94 now under one and bull-friendly and VIX is 19.03, lower as well intraday, so equities continue to recover. SPX 1580. SOX is 454 only three points under the 457 level that will provide bull fuel for markets. If SOX stays under 457, the broad indexes would likely roll back over to the downside.

Note Added 3:11 PM:  TRIN 0.92. VIX 19.01. SPX 1584. TRIN and VIX a touch lower so equities squeeze out some additional upside. SOX is 454 remaining under the critical 457 bull-bear line in the sand.

Note Added 3:28 PM:  TRIN 1.16.  VIX 19.62. SPX 1579.  SOX 452.66. Thus, TRIN and VIX drift higher, and semi's drift lower, so equities drift lower.

Note Added 3:51 PM:  SOX 452.21.  SPX 1577.

Note Added 3:57 PM:  SOX 452.05.  SPX 1575.

Note Added 4:00 PM:  SOX 451.56 puking into the close.  SPX 1573. Place the semi's at the top of the watch list tomorrow; SOX 457.00. Bulls got nothing unless they can move back above SOX 457. In addition, watch retail that was relatively quiet today. RTH 51.48 is the bull-bear line. RTH closes at 51.07 in the bear camp. If the bulls can move RTH above 51.48, that signals the all-clear for a few-day rally. So watch SOX 457.00 and RTH 51.48. If these two parameters remain bearish, equities will continue lower.  Watch NYA 8786 (now causing market bullishness at 8892 about 100 points above). If NYA 8786 fails, the broad indexes will take another leg lower with SPX moving into the 1550's. Volume is above average today, the fourth day of strong volume where the SPX has dropped from 1652 to 1573, 80 handles in this time period, about 20 handles per day.  The four-day drop is about 90 handles lower to the LOD at 1560.

16 comments:

  1. That Kocherlakota fights hawkish causing market to recover, I dont like him.

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  2. prop prop prop propaganda....

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  3. Is something wrong with the market index spx, SPXL shows green, SPX shows red??? Anyone knows what happen?

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    1. The $SPX is down today. SPXL is the dangerous and speculative triple X S&P 500 bull ETF so it is down. SPXS is the triple X S&P 500 bear ETF so it is up.

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  4. my oh my !
    I returned from my mountains trip and look what I've found! :)

    I expect this week to be registered the low of this downtrend no later than Friday, 28.06.13.
    This is why on Friday I've said that I can't 100% say if int.4 has reached it's final terminal point.

    If it still holds 1560 it may bounce to 1580/85 , but after that I expect a free fall cascade to 1523-1536 (and if it gets real cocky down to 1506-1510) as end of int.4.
    After that some upside during July ....

    V.

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    1. V, I was wondering where you are with all these action going on this morning:)
      So basically, do not go long yet and wait to see whether 1560 holds or not after this bounce?

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    2. V, after seeing today's action, it is surprising you did not jump in the car and head back to the mountains. LOL Markets are erratic and unstable, can only take them hour to hour to see how it plays out.

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    3. @ Anon:

      I want to stop giving advices. 1560 might be the low , but also a jump to 1580/1587 (but not more) might make the case for 1523-1536 -maybe 1506-1510 in a violent case.
      After that - higher targets (1660-1690, maybe more if int.4 has really finished).

      @ KS:
      Well , I might say that the first 2-3 minutes after coming back and seeing this whole mess I thought taking some extra-2-3 days off. Really!
      I was in Predeal - one of the many top mountain resorts here in Romania. Great, great experience for mountain climbing for both non-experienced and experienced mountain passionates.
      But ... got back cause I want to catch the bottom of this down movement.
      After getting long at the bottom, more mountains and some sea-side experience at the Black Sea :)... Some beach and sun and good vibe stuff :D ....


      :)
      V.

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  5. The week is off to an interesting start. Perhaps the full moon buoyancy shows up as the day proceeds. Window dressing this week so that should add bouyancy. The failure in semiconductors is key since you need a chip for almost every product you make nowadays. SOX 457.00 is the bull-bear line in the sand and it failed today. This is the major cause of the sell off in technical terms. SOX is now at 452.63 so market bears should be fine. If SOX pokes back above 457, that should serve as an all-clear signal for bulls and that a rally of a few days is likely.

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  6. V. - agree. 1560 is key. break below -kinda likely IMHO with the rather weak close- suggests a bottom anywhere in the 1555-1525 range. If 1560 holds and trade above 1600, especially 1610 then we're off to new highs already IMHO.

    Note that the NYSE is now most oversold since the May 2012 low... starting scaling in some longs may not be entirely a dump idea...

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  7. As per my Elliott wave analysis, tomorrow it will make low at 1569 and go up to 1608 and then go down to 1540. What do you think guys?

    G.

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  8. KS,

    You have been pretty liberal in letting everyone express their own views.

    But, lately this seems to be a forum for EW analysis.

    Is that what you want it to be, especially since you never make any EW pronouncements?

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    Replies
    1. ''You have been pretty liberal in letting everyone express their own views.''

      this is a sign of intelligent approach.

      V.

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    2. There is always a lot of E-wave analysis which is fine. Keystone posts an occasional e-wave chart and that may be a good chart to post today. Any comments are welcome as long as the background reason for the thought is given and profanity is not used. Everyone has niche's of expertise that is why you want to hear all views.

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  9. $BPSPX loses your 70-percent threshold (under Other Market Signals). KS, what usually happens next?

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    Replies
    1. That simply adds downside juice for the bears. Since the six percentage-point reversal occurred off the top, providing the market sell signal, the drop through 70% says the market sell signal is definitely the real deal. Of course, keep watching since it may sneak around 70% before it fails convincingly. At 69.40, the bulls need to push the BPSPX back above 75.40 to signal that a strong recovery rally has developed. If BPSPX stays under 70, the markets are toast.

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