Friday, June 14, 2013

Keystone's Midday Market Action 6/14/13

The golfers are hacking at the U.S. Open with only four players currently sub par. The markets are spending the day in the rough as well with the broad indexes negative for most of the day. The SPX is battling at the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1629.17 as highlighted previously.  The dollar/yen is 94.26 down from over 95 a few hours ago so the equity markets are weak. The euro is 1.3325 frozen like a deer in the headlights not knowing which way it wants to move. VIX regains 17 at 17.01. UTIL 486.51. GTX 4779.  TRIN 1.51 representing steady-eddy orderly selling. Volume is light with a run rate of only about two-thirds of a day's average expected volume, lighter than yesterday's volume. RUT (small caps) are leading the broad indexes lower. Watch UTIL 488.48, GTX 4764, and the drama at the 200 EMA at 1629.17.

Note Added 1:22 PM:  SPX now drops to test the strong 1626-1627 support. Dollar/yen 94.31. UTIL moving towards the lows of the day. TRIN 1.69. The 10-year yield is 2.13%.

Note Added 4:15 AM on 6/15/13: The SPX finishes below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1629 signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. Watch the 8 MA and 34 MA potential negative cross on the 30-minute come Monday morning. The strong 1626-1627 is key S/R and price parked itself at 1626.73 for the weekend. UTIL closed at 485.33 between the two bull-bear lines in the sand, one at 481.00 and the other at 488.48 for all next week. If UTIL stays at 485-ish, this will create bearishness next week remaining under 488.48. The bulls will try to push UTIL above 488.48. GTX closes at 4775 above the 4763 bull-bear line in the sand so this helps the market bulls for next week unless GTX drops back down through 4763. That was a wild end to the week with the large down day Wednesday, then big up on Thursday, then big down again on Friday. Next week will be a circus.

7 comments:

  1. Keystone my brotha,

    I put WLT on my watch list after you posted a chart and brief analysis. I forget if Keybot closed out the position or not but stock is down big on news their refi fell through. Catching knives is a dangerous thing but this story look a lot more interesting now. Any thoughts?

    As always, thank you for your insights...

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    1. Keybot the Quant has nothing to do with the trades mentioned on Keystone's site. Keybot is a trading algo that only addresses the movement in the broad indexes. All the trades on this site are the more speculative top and bottom calls. WLT is a wild ride, as they all can be, the stock was halted at 2 PM EST and did not trade again on Friday. It will likely trade again pre-market on Monday. The volume was three times normal even with the shortened-session so folks were screaming to get out. This was based on a Forbes report that WLT will not further pursue its financing needs. The company has cash flow to operate a couple years. It is odd that insiders are buying the stock in recent months so that would be odd if they expected it to tank. The news turns out to be a non-event since no further details are provided as yet. The guess would be that there are negotiations and other talk occurring on the weekend and either new financing will be announced next week or perhaps a buyout or other deal. The majority of deals are announced on Monday mornings so it will likely hit the fan early Monday morning. There would be two camps, one looking at this in a bad light since if financing could not be secured the company must be in bad shape and there is fear that the loan cannot be repaid. This would be bad and drop the stock further. The other side of the story is that the financing was pulled since there are other deals in the works rendering it unnecessary and a potential deal will be announced Monday morning. There is high short interest in the stock. With the insider buying it is surprising to see this action in the stock. All these speculative plays can move up or down 25% or more on any given day. Monday morning will likely tell the tale. WLT has been subject of takeover talk for the last year or two, in the 25-30 range. So, just have to wait and see what the news is come next week.

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  2. Arnie,

    I want to ask you something if you don't mind...
    I really don't want to register on caldaro's site to post... (personal reasons)... can you pretty please post this link from old Anon V. ? :)? .. at least they will have a subject to laugh at... but they will know about it!

    There are so much bears there and is this thing (in the article) really happens there won't be so much bears left.... :) ... and that should start some handsome downside move...

    http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164207-u-s-stocks-middle-section-forecasts/

    If Cygnet Noir is right (don't know if it is with his 1698-1712 target into OPEX) and a double top or a new times high is boiling right now, maybe people should know that this possibility exists... remember , we have FED's meeting and OPEX! A truly heavy week!

    I hope you will read this message!
    Thank you in advance!

    V.

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  3. KS may have past away from a heart attack after buying WLT yesterday who wouldn't have? Dear Lord

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    1. That is why the heart pills are handy. That is the nature of speculative trading, it is far higher risk and excitement, big ups and big downs. WLT comments are above, have to wait to Monday to see what the result is, either more down or a short-covering up.

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  4. KS, util closed @485.33, which is above 488.48
    gtx=4775.10 above 4759 and spx stays below 200ema.
    Does this means market may meander sideways on Monday until fomc? btw...cpc=1.19, close to getting long (1.20+)?
    The interesting thing is trin=1.75 and bpspx=81.20

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    1. Yep A, these are all key metrics and they sit at inflection points. GTX is bull favorable. UTIL at 485 starts the week under 488.48 so that will help the market bears. Watch UTIL at the opening bell Monday. If it explodes higher to 488 that will be a tell that the markets are going to recover and float higher into the FOMC. If UTIL stays under 488, this will help the bear case, and if GTX can weaken, that will put the bears firmly in the drivers seat.

      If SPX stays under 1629, the bears rule moving forward. A move above 1629 is another hint that the bulls will be running higher next week. We are so close to the FOMC, markets may want to meander sideways and then make a major decision on Wednesday.

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