Monday, February 28, 2011

SDP UltraShort Utilities Weekly Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence

SDP ultrashort utilities weekly chart showing oversold conditions, falling wedge and positive divergence which means time to head back up. Since SDP is the inverse of utilities than UTIL and XLU should be rolling over and selling off in the weeks ahead.

The most intersting aspect is that the utilities tend to lead the overall broad markets, thus, if SDP starts to move back up as the divergence above suggests, than the overall broad markets will be seeing some rough seas ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Industrials Weekly Chart Secular Inverted H&S

INDU Dow Industrials weekly chart showing the inverted H&S from the March 2009 bottom. 6600 head and 9000 neckline yields 11400 target that was achieved at Halloween. It is prudent to expect a back test of this 11400 level.

Histogram is showing negative divergence but the RSI is long and strong saying that it will want to see the price up at previous levels again. This will give the RSI time to switch to a negative divergence profile. This action would show itself with an M top moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Industrials Daily Chart 62% Fibonacci Retracement

INDU Dow Industrials daily chart received the negative divergence spank down a week ago. Rising wedge and overbot conditions also helped to push it over the hill. From the 12K intraday bottom, the Dow has now retraced to the 62% Fib in this 12226-12235 area. Interestingly, the largest volume candle recently shares this 12230 level as well. This 12230 level is also sturdy horizontal resistance as evidenced by the action a couple weeks ago.

Thus, this level, 12230, is a pivot area. If she plans on going down this is a level that would occur from. The retracement of half the price fall is not enjoyed by the indicators such as stochastics so this favors the Fib spank down for the bears. 20 MA at 12175 provides near term support. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

XLP Consumer Staples Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

XLP consumer dstaples weekly chart exhibits the same characteristics as does most sectors these days; overbot, rising wedge, negative divergence. Very ominous indeed. As XLP tops and rolls over in the coming weeks a reasonable target would be the high volume candle days last summer in the 27-ish area. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

GOLD Daily Chart H&S Potential Island Reversal

Gold an emotional ride and always very news driven. The H&S shown by the red lines failed at 1340-ish but the failure was short lived as Middle East turmoil bounced gold back above the neckline and up towards recent highs. The last four days form a potential island top, should it play out, gold will skip back down to sub 1388. If the current price holds, then the potential H&S shown by the blue lines is in play as well as the red line H&S. This presents two targets, 1260 and 1220.

Gold bulls will gain strength if further upside levels are attained and also if the 20 MA regains the 50 MA. Simply watch to see which scenario plays out early this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX:VIX Ratio Chart

SPX:VIX ratio daily chart sitting a smidge above 68. Broad market selling occurs when this ratio moves under 68. At 68.67, market bulls are happy to start the week, but any move below 68 and the bears willl be singing. A sustained move above 68 continues a bull rebound but simply puts off the inevitable; the ratio has to come down thru 68 at some point in the days ahead and when it does, the bears will be growling. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support and Resistance

SPX S/R

·         1350
·         1344; 1344.07
·         1343; 1343.01
·         1341; 1341.50; 1340.43; 1340.38
·         1339; 1338.91;
·         1338; 1337.61; 1338.12
·         1336; 1336.32
·         1334; 1334.37
·         1332-1333; 1332.32; 1332.96
·         1331; 1330.79; 1330.43; 1331.00
·         1329; 1329.15; 1329.51; 1328.73
·         1328; 1328.01
·         1327; 1326.90
·         1325-1326; 1325.76; 1324.57; 1324.87; 1324.54; 1324.61
·         1322-1323; 1322.85; 1322.48; 1321.87; 1322.78
·         1321; 1320.88;
·         1318-1319; 1318.76; 1319.05; 1318.66; 1318.13; 1317.91
·         1315-1316; August 2008; 1316.03; 1314.89; 1316.08; 1315.44
·         1312; 1311.85; 1311.74; 1312.33
·         1311; 1310.87; 1311.00; 1310.91
·         1309; 1308.86; 1308.60
·         1307-1308; 1307.59; 1307.61; 1307.10; 1307.01; 1307.40; 1307.09
·         1306; 1305.91; 1306.10
·         1304; 1304.03
·         1303; 1302.67; 1302.62; 1302.77
·         1302; 1301.67
·         1300; 1299.63; 1299.54; 1299.55
·         1298; 1297.51
·         1296; 1296.06
·         1294-1295; 1295.02; 1294.83; 1294.26
·         1293; 1293.24; 1293.22
·         1292; 1291.93; 1291.97
·         1291; 1291.21; 1290.84; 1291.26; 1291.18
·         1290; 1290.16
·         1289; 1289.14
·         1286-1287; 1286.70; 1286.87; 1285.78; 1285.96; 1286.12; 1287.17
·         1284; 1283.76
·         1282; 1282.07; 1282.47
·         1281; 1281.07
·         1278; 1278.17; 1277.63
·         1276.50; 1276.56; 1276.50; 1276.34
·         1274-1275; 1274.12; 1274.48; 1274.98; 1275.10
·         1273; 1272.95; 1273.37 LT S/R
·         1271-1272; 1271.50; 1271.87
·         1270; 1269.75; 1270.43; 1270.84; 1269.62; 1270.20
·         1267
·         1265; 1265.36
·         1262-1263; 1262.66; 1262.60; 1262.18; 1261.70
·         1260; 1259.90; 1259.78
·         1258.5-1259.0; 1258.84; 1258.51; 1259.10; 1258.59; 1258.78; 1258.43
·         1257-1258; 1257.54; 1257.88; (Start 2011 at 1257.64); 1256.77; 1257.53; 1257.62
·         1255; 1254.60; 1254.94;
·         1251.70 (9/14/08 pre LEH bk); 1251.48
·         1250; 1250.20; 1249.43

Saturday, February 26, 2011

SCO Ultrashort Oil Daily Chart Positive Divergence Setting Up

SCO ultrashort oil ETF daily chart is setting up with positive divergence. Playing oil is a speculative trade, even more so than normal, considering all the unrest in the Middle East. Big selling volume in the candles hints at capitulation which means the oil price is getting too big for its britches. The consensus wants to see that $120 oil price which of course means it probably will not happen. All that said, gap down moves like this need a little time to settle so the yellow circle would target a potential entry in the 45 to 48 area.

That should set things up for a bounce and an extended move up with SCO for the weeks ahead. The weekly chart confirms this as well so once we work thru some more excitement in the coming days and tease $100 oil another time, oil price should pull back down towards the low 80's moving forward, definitely a contrarian view considering all the oil bulls out there. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

NEM Daily Chart H&S Testing Neckline Lower Highs Lower Lows

NEM daily chart head and shoulders pattern is currently testing the neckline. Any move lower constitutes a break down of the neckline and an H&S target of 45 will be in the cards.  Look at the huge volume selling last Thursday as many traders threw NEM overboard. This chart is of interest since NEM serves as a proxy for gold overall. The H&S neckline at 54.5 held a month ago but NEM bulls will probably not be so lucky this time around. The dots show the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and a failure of the neckline will usher in another lower low.

ADX shows a strong trend in place for the late January selling and now the ADX is curling upwards again as the selling renews. This chart is sick with price under the 20 MA under the 50 MA under the 200 MA. The fight to regain the 200 MA over the last few days has failed miserably. The best NEM bulls can hope for is a bounce here at the neckline and a move sideways into the 54 to 59 channel range moving forward, but, any bounce is most likely a selling opportunity. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Keybot the Quant -- Long

Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1314.  Copper strength is boosting equities as well as a brief jump in the retail sector after the open. Retail sector has since pulled back again.  Many ETF's this morning performed reverse stock splits.

http://www.keybotthequant.blogspot.com/

UUP Dollar Bullish ETF Weekly Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence

UUP Dollar bullish ETF weekly chart showing oversold conditions with a falling wedge and positive divergence. Thus, UUP will want to head up. Since this is a weekly chart, buoyancy in the dollar would be expected as the next few weeeks tick along. Rumors of the dollar's death are greatly exaggerated. UUP is ready to bounce from that green circle at any time, she's simply picking the bounce point now. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

UUP Dollar Bullish ETF Daily Chart Positive Divergence Set Up for UUP

UUP Dollar bullish ETF daily chart showing the makings of a positive divergence set up. Rumors of the dollar collapse are greatly exaggerated. As seen by previous dollar charts, $USD, the 77 bottom rail support is important, bounce or die. From this chart, a bounce is in the works for the dollar index, it is simply a matter of choosing the entry in the green circle. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

GM Daily Chart Returns to IPO Price

GM daily chart now returned to the IPO price of 33 in only three short months. The smart money ditched this national embarassment in January. GM fell thru 33 yesterday to approach 32 but recovered back to the 33 IPO price to close the session. The chart is sick. Downward sloping megaphone in place and a bounce here is reasonable. GM should move sideways to sideways up to test the 35 resistance area which is also a confluence with the top rail of the falling megaphone.

Note the horizontal channel range of 33 to 35 moving forward. Histo and stochastics hinting at positive divergence but when a ticker collapses like this there is typically more downside ahead as the RSI and money flow indicate. Stockholders should be happy to simply see sub 35 moving forward since the chart shows that sub 33 is more realistic in the weeks ahead. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

RUT Russell 2000 small caps weekly chart rolling over from the overbot, rising wedge and negative divergence. Look at the importance of the 20 MA over the last couple years. 20 MA now 765 and moving up, so the confluence of horizontal support on both the weekly and daily charts and the 20 MA means the real test occurs at 775.

Note the lower trend line moving up thru 750 so a test, and failure, of 775, appears in the cards with the last ditch effort to stop the slide occurring at 750 in the days ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

RUT Russell 2000 small caps daily chart rolling over from the overbot, rising wedge and negative divergence. The lower trend line was busted in mid January at the 800 level and that is where it bounced today for the first test of 800 horizontal support. The intraday high today came up to test the 20 MA and pulled back a smidge. That is the bracket to watch, 800.0 support and 808.6 resistance so it will show its hand tomorrow depending on which side it wants to move thru.

ADX shows the strong momo trend into and thru the holidays and as the New Year began but by mid January the party was over. Lots of downside remaining, 800 should fail, the real battle will be for 775. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

FXE Euro Daily Chart

FXE Euro daily chart showing the negative divergence spank down in October, then the positive divergence bounce in December, and then another negative divergence spank down in late January. For the last month the downward sloping channel was in place with lower lows and lower highs as shown by the black dots. Price jumped up and out of the top rail today and now sits at horizontal resistance.

The Euro tends to move inverse to the dollar index and in the same direction as U.S. equities but this relationship is shaky with all the geopolitical events occurring. Since the dollar index should bounce, especially on a presumed flight to safety, then the Euro should move down, but the news cycle these days is taking precedence. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

FXE Euro Weekly Chart

FXE Euro weekly chart shows a negative divergence smack down in late 2009, then a textbook two-leg bull flag during last summer's rally into Fall 2010. Technically, the chart is not tipping its hand. The Euro price is very much news related now and many view Europe's hawkish leanings more favorable relative to other currencies, hence the recent buoyancy.

This chart has a sideways look to it moving forward. The rising wedge hints at a pull back but there is no negative divergence to reinforce this move. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Keybot the Quant -- Short

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side after the open.  If VIX stays above 18.10 then the market bears will continue their push, if the VIX falls back under 18.10, then the market bulls will wrestle back control.
 

TNX 10-Year Yield

TNX ten year yield daily chart shows the negative divergence spank down of yield two weeks ago. December and January movement shows a sideways symmetrical triangle that broke out to the upside and hit the 37 target. During that December-January period, the ADX shows a strong upward trend in yield but that momo is no longer there.

Yields will move sideways going forward. The uber inflationists will be disappointed in seeing yields not climb as they expect. As yields top and roll over now, the consensus will be suprised to see a sideways to sideways down bias in yields in the weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GILD Potential Cup and Handle C&H

GILD forming a textbook cup and handle (C&H) with the key breakout level at 40. Should the pattern continue and break up thru the 40 level the target is 48-49 which is a horizontal resistance area. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

X USX Corporation Daily Chart Negative Divergence Potential Island Reversal

X USX Corporation, daily chart to take a look at steel. Negative divergence in play so a spank down is at hand. Price gapped up from 60-ish to 62 forming an island top, so an island reversal is in play. The lower trend line is sloping up to meet with the horizontal support at the 60 level so this confluence should act as a magnet for price moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/22/11:  Hours after posting this chart, the island reversal occurred and price dropped down to the 50 MA.

KOL Coal Sector Daily Chart

KOL coal sector daily chart received lots of love as the Aussie floods reaked havoc down under placing many of their mines underwater. In mid January, the negative divergence spanked KOL down, then only a couple weeks ago the positive divergence bounced KOL. Typcially you never see such a flip flop with divergences like that.

Sideways is the path of least resistance moving forward but watch price in relation to the 20 MA and 50 MA. Price under the 20 under the 50 will favor the coal bears while the coal bulls want to see price stay above the 20 above the 50. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

OIH Oil Services Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

OIH oil services daily chart very similar to the commodities and energy sector charts. These hot sectors show a pull back ahead in the daily time frames but weekly charts exhibit great momo that will require a few weeks of time to burn off. Note the hanging man candle printed on 2/18/11. A 155 to 165 range would be reasonable during the next few weeks as the OIH tops and rolls over. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

XLE Energy Sector Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

XLE energy sector a fave play by many traders over the last few months. Some negative divergence, along with the overbot conditions and rising wedge, will cause a pull back, but with the weekly chart strong and the strong momo overall, price will move sideways in a topping pattern going forward. A 74 to 78 sideways range would be reasonable for the next month or so as the chart continues to top and roll over. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only--do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

DBA Ag Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Doji Potential M Top Ahead

DBA Ag weekly chart shows the powerful move skyward. Rising wedge with a doji candle at the top signifying a potential trend change, but momo like this does not disappear quickly. RSI and money flows move higher with price as well saying that even after a pull back price will want to come back up to this level again, so an M top moving forward would be on the table.

2011 sees nothing but strong buying volume, everyone, including the cabbie, buying into the food inflation story. None of the buying volume has surpassed previous high selling volume spikes. The 29 level is of great interest and the DBA should come down to take a look at this level in the weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

DBA Ag Daily Chart Negative Divergence

DBA ag daily chart has been very strong, still lots of momo there. The RSI in early February signalled that another higher high will occur which we obtained. The high volume buying in the Fall has not been surpassed for three months. Over the last two weeks two high volume sell days surfaced. The chart is rolling over now with the negative divergence. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

CRB Commodities Index Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

CRB commodites weekly chart shows rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence. This reinforces the daily chart, so down she will go. ADX showing a strong trend in place but looking back to the sell off area in front of the March 2009 bottom, the strong trend can stay in place a few months after the turn occurs. Commodities are topping and rolling over now, contrary to what others say. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

CRB Commodities Index Daily Chart Rolling Over

CRB commodities daiy chart, the textbook rising wedge to finish 2010 along with the negative divergence and overbot conditions, sent the CRB down the first few days of 2011. Then, to start February, CRB received another negative divergence spank down as shown by the red lines. ADX shows a strong trend was in place October thru December, but that strong trend disappeared in concert with the negative divergence of the blue lines.

This chart is rolling over right now, watch the breaks of the 20 MA and more importantly the 50 MA. The 50 MA held in the Nvember sell off but this time around the 50 MA will probably fail. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, February 21, 2011

GOLD:SILVER Ratio

GOLD:SILVER ratio, use the 90 to 100 area, and the 40-50 area, as the turn signals. Going into summer 2008, the top in the commodities bubble back then, silver was outperforming gold. Between summer 2008 and the Fall 2008 crash, gold outperformed silver. From the Fall 2008 crash to present, silver far outperformed gold. Both are phenomenal winners but silver was the preferred ride for over two years now.

Since the ratio is now under the 50 turn signal area, gold will outperform silver as we go forward in the weeks and months ahead. Silver's outperformance of gold for the last 29 months is now enjoying its final glory. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

GOLD Daily Chart S/R 1420, 1408, 1388

GOLD daily chart showing rising wedge but on 2/21/11 gold leaped up to test that 1408 level. The price is news driven now from Middle East events. This 1408 is key resistance, then 1420. If 1420 comes, then watch the RSI in relation to early December. Recent move is long and strong for the indicators saying that after a pull back price will want to come back up to these levels again.

ADX does not show a strong trend in place, again reinforcing the thought that the price move is all news driven now. Just as M.E. news drives it up, M.E. news can drive it down. S/R 1420, 1408, 1388, 1363, 1355, 1335, 1315. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SILVER Weekly Chart Overbot Negative Divergence

SILVER weekly chart showing overbot conditions and negative divergence but since the recent move was so momentum driven, price will probably stay in more of a sideways posture moving forward. Watch the RSI to see if the negative divergence stays in place over the next couple weeks, if so, down she goes.

With the Gold:Silver ratio in the low 40's, then moving forward for weeks and months ahead, gold should outperform silver. Silver is moving stronger than gold the last few days since the Gold:Silver ratio is drifting lower. Silver does not have any oomph for this recent move up as shown by the negative divergence. One thing silver bulls can hang their hat on is that the trend is strong as shown by the ADX above 30. If the ADX goes sub 30 with the negative divergence remaining in place, down she goes.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Keystone's Key Dates Moving Forward

1.      Europe Crisis Continues:  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, the PIIGS.  Italy has close business ties to Libya which may expose Italy’s bad paper.
2.      China Property Bubble and China Contagion:  When it pops, anytime now, it sure will be a sight.
3.      PBOC, China Rate Hikes:  First hike 10/19/10, 25 bips; second hike Christmas 12/25/10, 25 bips; third hike on 2/8/11.  Expect the hikes to continue.
4.      India, Brazil and other Emerging Market Rate Hikes:  Same effects as China rate hikes, commodities sell off.
5.      Wiki Leaks:  Bank or other surprises?
6.      State and Muni Crisis:  Muni’s should experience pain first.  Many State budgets turn over in June and July.
7.      Japan Intervention:  Japan intervention in the dollar/yen may occur anytime.
8.      Geopolitical and Major Negative News Events; Middle East:  Perhaps Korea or others such as the key to the Middle East troubles, Bahrain.  Dollar bullish and equity bearish.  Gold bulish.
9.      POMO Pumps:  QE2 market pumps from 10:15 AM to 11 AM each day.  Market bullish.
10.  Congress in Session:  Market bearish, when not in session, market bullish.
11.  2/17/11:  Major Bradley Turn date, turn window is open thru Thursday, 2/24/11.
12.  2/22/11:  Consumer Confidence data, 10 AM.
13.  2/25/11:  University of Michigan Sentiment data, 10 AM.
14.  2/25/11:  Ireland Elections.  Euro down=dollar up=equities down and visa versa.
15.  3/3/11:  Budget Crisis Deadline, government shutdown?
16.  3/3/11 as a historic rhyme of 3/3/33:  Banks were closed March 3, 1933.  33 and 13 Masonic numbers.  Simply an interesting set of numbers.
17.  3/4/11:  Jobs Report Friday, 8:30 AM.
18.  3/15/11, FOMC one-day meeting, should be market buoyant.
19.  3/24/11 and 3/25/11:  EU Council Meeting.
20.  4/26/11 and 4/27/11: FOMC two-day meeting, QE3 announcement?  FOMC meetings are typically market bullish especially second day.
21.  5/1/11 and on:  California financial decisions.  Will these decisions spook the country?
22.  5/15/11: Eclipse Sell-off Technique targets this time frame as a potential large market selloff area.
23.  June 2011:  EU Bank Stress Test Results.
24.  June 2011:  QE2 Ends.
25.  6/15/11:  Bradley Turn date.
26.  6/22/11:  Bradley turn date.
27.  7/15/11: Eclipse Sell-off Technique targets this time frame as a potential large market selloff area.
28.  7/29/11 and 7/30/11:  Major Bradley Turn date.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

US Dollar daily chart to take a closer look at the sideways action. The key test this week is whether or not the dollar index can hold 77. If the 76 level is ever lost, that would represent a fear that the dollar is collapsing. The expectation would be for the dollar index to move up from here in concert with the broad indexes moving down.

Note the April sell off that started when price went above the 20 MA, same for that short sell off in November. Look at how price and the 20 MA are dancing now, within pennies of each other. If price moves above the 20 MA, the dollar index heads up and the broad markets sell off, or, visa versa. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

U S Dollar Index Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

U S Dollar weekly chart, long term sideways symmetrical triangle pattern, not tipping its hand, simply moving sideways as time ticks along. The range between the rails is now 77 to 81. Two weeks ago the bottom rail was tested intraweek and price bounced back up. Now it wants to take another look at 77. Weaker dollar = stronger commodities = bullish markets, and visa versa, stronger dollar = weaker commodities = bearish markets. Watch the dollar moving inverse to China as well.

For the broad markets and indexes to roll over now, as the charts have been indicating, the dollar would have to move up, so any test of the bottom rail at 77 will be successful and will hold as support. For the market bulls to continue the broad market fun, the dollar needs to fail at 77 and collapse thru the bottom rail. The prudent choice forward is the dollar moving up towards the critical 79.56 S/R level again and this will be in concert with the broad markets selling off. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

BPENER Energy Sector Bulish Percent Shows Weakness

BPENER energy sector bullish percent chart. Purple circle shows the start of the rally when Ben announced QE2 at Jackson Hole. Up until this month, the chart has not seen a 6% plus counter move to signal weakness ahead for energy. Now, however, the BPENER has fallen from 82-ish down to 74.35, let's call it 7 or 8 %. Contrary to what this chart is saying, the XLE continues to make new highs. This chart is leading so look for XLE to roll over.

Positive divergence in play for stochastics so some sideways may show up moving forward. As long as it remains in this 74-75 area or lower, the weakness will show up in XLE. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Daily Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

SPX daily chart, an update from a few days ago. Same ole, same ole, sectors, indexes, they all have a similar look. Price keeps moving up with the QE2 orgy. Overbot, rising wedge, negative divergence. SPX is dead, someone simply needs to tap it on the shoulder and tell it to sit down already. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

FDX FedEx Overbot Negative Divergence

FDX daily chart, an update to an chart posted a few days ago. At that time the downward channel was in place and price was moving with lower lows and lower highs, the black dots, so the critical test was the top rail, but the price kept on heading skyward nullifying the channel. The strength over the last few days is impressive, probably more of Ben's hot money chasing it after the joyous guidance call.

Weekly chart remains towards overbot with negative divergence, there is no undelying oomph to this recent price move jump. Price is topping again and should reverse any time. Watch the 20 and 50 MA cross moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Keybot the Quant Remaining Bullish -- Long

Keybot the Quant, a trading algorithm tracking the SPX, remains long for now indicating that the status is quo in the markets.

Bulls are comfortably in control--especially after utilities jumped at the open yesterday.  For the market bears to have any hope today, UTIL would have to slip under 409.60, or Copper has to fall about 8 or 9 pennies, or the VIX would have to jump about 10% to 18.21, the VIX is now at 16.59.

Next standard signal for Keybot clicks off on Sunday but stay tuned, Keybot can start flashing at any time. 

If none of the three items above occur today, then the bulls will enjoy the pre-holiday weekend expected buoyancy and take an easy slide into the weekend.

http://www.keybotthequant.blogspot.com/

PLAT Platinum Daily Chart Negative Divergence Potential H&S

PLAT platinum chart has enjoyed upward momo like any other PM or commodity lately. January negative divergence spanked it down. Then it came back up to receive another negative divergence smack down seven days ago. Price now back up again to test the underside of the upward sloping lower trend line, so today's move will tell a lot.

Platinum price now has the potential of creating the right shoulder of an H&S. The neckline is at 1775 and this level was touched intraday four days ago. Should the neckline fail, 1700 would be in play and even 1630. The chart is weak and the weekly chart is in negative divergence as well so platinum should continue to roll over. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

IYZ Telecom Sector Weekly Chart Negative Divergence

IYZ telecom weekly chart confirms the weakness over the last few days.  IYZ is now coming off overbot levels and the rising wedge and negative divergence also helped kick off the bearishness this week. Price broke up and out of the long term ascending triangle when the Fed announced QE2 in late August 2010. This breakout targeted 23.75, exactly where it sits now, so the ascending triangle pattern is satisfied.

Since the daily and weekly charts agree with negative divergence across all indicators, IYZ is in big trouble right now and further selling is expected. This makes one wonder about all the positive hype surrounding smart phones and tablets as well as the significance of IYZ as a leading indicator for the overall broad markets.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

IYZ Telecom Sector Daily Chart Negative Divergence

IYZ telecom sector rolling over and slipping away the last few days receiving a negative divergence smack down. Overbot conditions and rising wedge reinforce the bearish vibe. IYZ is trending with higher highs and higher lows but this would change with a test of 21.75. The neon circles show some sizeable gaps to fill underneath. The pink lines will provide sturdy support. Lots more downside ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Five Minute Chart Descending Triangle

UTIL utilities five minute chart today shows the huge opening spike this morning, recovering the all important 409.60 level. DUK earnings excited the ute sector before the open. After the spike to 413 at the open, the rest of the day it faded away slowly, creating a descending triangle, but it would not fall below the base line at 410.5.

Just before the close the utes actually jumped above the top rail of the descending triangle. Since the utes were back above ther 409.60, the broad markets were ready for more rallying. Watch tomorrow morning to see if any weakness shows up in the utilities. From 413 to 410.5 is a difference of 2.5 so if the 410.5 level is broken after the open tomorrow, the 407-ish level would be a target and this happens to be nice horizontal support from Wednesday afternoon.  The broad market bulls remain in control as long as the utes stay above 409.60 tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

TRIN Arms Index

TRIN Arms Index below one says the bulls are in control, above one and the bears are growling. Watch the TRIN in real-time throughout the trading day to note the trading preference. For the last month or two, as this broad market topping behavior continues, the TRIN has shown a long period of sub 1.0 readings, reinforcing all the bullish sentiment the last couple of months.

To initiate the April 2010 sell off, the 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA, which is also the case now. TRIN should now revert back to the mean and start to favor prints above 1.0 here on out, which will be in concert with broad market selling. Verification of continued broad market selling will occur as TRIN price moves above the 20 MA above the 50 MA above the 200 MA just like May 2010. Of concern, is that this behavior, along with the CPC, is the same behavior that preceded the early May 2010 Flash Crash event. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only--do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio

CPC put/call ratio displays the complete lack of fear around, absolute complacency, why there's blue skies everywhere you look. As history shows, this is the time that the broad markets typically crack open like an egg. The low sub 0.6 number in January matches the low back in April 2010 a couple weeks before that market cracked. We are at that point now, an educated guess would be that the broad markets start to sell off any day. Once the broad markets do start selling, the negativity will not be rung out until this charts posts a number above 1.2.

Note the red line at 0.7 which means traders have no fear of the markets going down. A signal that will verify the upward move in the CPC and indicate broad market selling is the 10 and 21 MA cross. Now only two cents apart, 0.85 and 0.87, respectively. Once the 10 MA moves above the 20 MA and we see price above the 10 above the 20, that will confirm a further up move in the CPC and further broad market selling ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only--do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

XLK Technology Sector Negative Divergence

XLK technology sector chart shows what many charts show right now, both weekly and daily charts, negative divergence. A great looking short chart. Should fall down any day. To verify that the XLK has rolled over, the two hanging man candlesticks circled would require confirmation to the downside with the next candle. Interesting to see the prior circled area where two doji candles ushered in a big selling day. We'll see what the two hanging man candles usher in. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX Bullish Percent for SPX Negative Divergence

BPSPX bullish percent chart for SPX. Very elevated now and in negative divergence so it should move down any day. The 82 to 83 level would confirm the intial selling in the broad markets and indicate more selling to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only--do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Losing Key Support 409.60

UTIL utilities chart showing a break down at the 409.60 level. Continue to watch 409.60; as long as the utes stay under this level this week, the broad markets are in big trouble. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish -- Long

Keybot the Quant, a trading algorithm tracking the SPX, flipped back to the long side at 10:13 AM EST at 1334.  UTIL is staying well above 409.60 so this negates any broad market fears--for now.  Always stay on guard for further whipsaws.  SPX at critical resistance now going back to 2006.  Market bulls are in control.

http://www.keybotthequant.blogspot.com/

EWJ Japan Daily Chart Negative Divergence

EWJ Japan daily chart shows negative divergence spank down with the blue lines. Now experiencing the pink lines negative divergence spank down. 11.1 to 11.2 area is critical representing horizontal support and trend line support. A pull back to the lower rail at 11.1 would be in order. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.